提醒：北京时间22:00，将公布美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值、美国6月密歇根大学1年通胀预 期初值、美国6月密歇根大学5年通胀预期初值。 ...

美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值、一年期通胀率预期初值将于十分钟后公布。 ...

2025 年，宏观环境从"弱复苏"到"强预期"，全球经济复苏动能分化，地缘政治与货币政策交织扰动， A 股在估值修复与盈利验证中震荡前 行。中国证监会" 1+N "政策体系加速落地，结构性货币政策工具精准发力，叠加居民储蓄转化趋势与外资配置周期重启，市场正处于关键 的"信心重估"窗口期。 7 月 4 日 -5 日，格隆汇诚邀您莅临【格隆汇中期策略会 2025 】！ 我们邀请到了东方财富证券研究所副所长、首席策略官陈果先生莅临现场，基于最新市场数据与独家研究框架，深度剖析 2025 下半年中国资 本市场发展路径与机遇。从"流动性牛"到"基本面牛"，资本市场中期震荡上行趋势明确，把握关键窗口，共话市场新局！ 嘉宾介绍 陈果 东方财富证券副所长、首席策略官 曾担任安信证券研究中心副总经理，首席策略师，中信建投证券首席策略官，董事总经 理；2025年加入东方财富证券任副所长、首席策略官。 研究框架与思路：自上而下与自下而上相结合，基本面与量化相结合，面向实战，团队 覆盖大类资产配置策略、A股市场策略、行业比较、主题投资以及港股市场策略等 团队荣誉：作为首席率团队2020-2024年多次入选新财富、水晶球、金牛奖等最佳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion surrounding the price fluctuations of Moutai liquor reflects consumer sentiment and market confidence in the Chinese liquor industry, particularly during a period of adjustment in the market [1][3]. Price Trends - As of June 11, 2024, the average transaction price for a 500ml bottle of 53-degree Moutai on JD.com was 2366 yuan for single bottles and 2146 yuan per bottle for boxed sets, indicating a slight increase from the previous average of 2310 yuan on May 28 [2]. - The wholesale price of Moutai liquor remains above 2000 yuan in various regions, with many distributors reporting retail prices around 2100 yuan or higher, and some larger distributors indicating prices could reach approximately 2200 yuan [2]. Consumer Sentiment - Consumers exhibit a calm attitude towards the price changes of Moutai, often prioritizing personal preference and demand over market discussions, with some expressing confidence that prices may rise again in the future [4][5]. - The stable pricing observed in physical stores aligns with consumer sentiment, as prices for Moutai have remained between 2300 yuan and 2400 yuan in various locations [4]. Industry Insights - Industry experts note that the current fluctuation in liquor prices is typical as the market enters a low season, and the ongoing discussions about Moutai prices may be more emotional than based on actual market conditions [3]. - The high-end liquor market is seeing consumers becoming more rational, considering product value and social or emotional benefits rather than just price [5].

Core Insights - The supply of foreclosed properties in May 2025 decreased by 18% month-on-month, while transactions surged by 276%, reaching a monthly high for the year [1][9] - The recovery in market confidence is attributed to ongoing domestic policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and a temporary easing of tariff agreements [1] - High-net-worth individuals and investment institutions are expected to show increased interest in the foreclosed property market, particularly in economically outward-oriented cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Xiamen [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - In May 2025, the new supply of foreclosed properties was 24,900 units, down from 30,400 units in April, marking a 18% decrease and a 29% decrease year-on-year [2] - The total starting price for these properties was 23.2 billion yuan, a 30% decline from the previous month [2] - Major cities with significant new listings included Chongqing, Chengdu, Wuhu, and Zhengzhou, with Chongqing leading at 1,195 units, maintaining its position for six consecutive months [5] Transaction Volume and Market Activity - The transaction volume for foreclosed properties in May 2025 reached 4,679 units, a 276% increase month-on-month, although it was down 17% year-on-year [9] - The auction heat increased, with 69% of properties sold at a premium, up 3 percentage points from the previous month [9] - Notably, 7.7% of properties had bidding counts exceeding 100, indicating heightened competition [9][18] City-Specific Insights - In first-tier cities, the number of new foreclosures was below 300, with Guangzhou leading at 233 units, a 37% decrease month-on-month [8] - Beijing had the highest total starting price for new listings at 2.56 billion yuan, driven by significant properties like the China International Technology Fair Center [8][12] - The transaction rate for foreclosed properties in May was 19%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous month, with cities like Ningbo, Shanghai, and Hangzhou exceeding 50% [15] Market Outlook - The foreclosed property market is expected to benefit from ongoing stabilization efforts in the real estate sector and rapid urban renewal initiatives [19] - However, a seasonal peak in first-hand property transactions in June may lead to a diversion of demand, potentially affecting the momentum of foreclosed property transactions [19]

Economic Data Releases - Germany's final CPI for May will be released at 14:00 [1] - France's final CPI for May will be released at 14:45 [1] - Eurozone's adjusted trade balance for April and industrial production for April will be released at 17:00 [1] - Canada's wholesale sales for April will be released at 20:30 [1] - The initial value of the US one-year inflation expectations for June and the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index for June will be released at 22:00 [1] - The total number of oil rigs in the US for the week ending June 13 will be released at 01:00 the next day [1]

今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2025年6月13日 周五 ① 14:00 德国5月CPI月率终值 ② 14:45 法国5月CPI月率终值 ③ 17:00 欧元区4月季调后贸易帐 ④ 17:00 欧元区4月工业产出月率 ⑤ 20:30 加拿大4月批发销售月率 ⑥ 22:00 美国6月一年期通胀率预期初值 ⑦ 22:00 美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 ⑧ 次日01:00 美国至6月13日当周石油钻井总数 相关链接 ...

欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔：欧元汇率走强主要由欧洲的积极信心冲击所推动，而非利差。 ...

日本第二季度BSI大型非制造业信心指数 -0.5，前值4.1。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that Japan's BSI (Business Sentiment Index) for large manufacturing companies in the second quarter has decreased to -4.8, down from a previous value of -2.4, reflecting a decline in business confidence among large manufacturers [1]