齐鲁银行（601665）管理层在近期披露的投资者关系活动记录表中明确表示，将紧跟国家和省市战略部 署，夯实对公业务战略支柱作用，加大对新型制造业、重点基础设施、科技创新、绿色金融、普惠金 融、乡村振兴等领域支持力度，发力省属国企、上市及拟上市公司、民营百强企业及县域优质客群，保 持对公信贷投放稳健增长；同时，全面推进零售"二次转型"战略，加大消费贷款拓展力度，调优个贷业 务结构。 杭州银行（600926）也透露，2025年信贷资源将持续聚焦主流市场、主流客户及主流资产，尤其会加大 对战略性新兴产业、现代服务业、先进制造业、科技文创企业和绿色金融等领域的对公信贷支持力度。 沪农商行（601825）则将信贷投向与金融"五篇大文章"紧密结合，坚持"五个优先"原则——优先支持实 体经济发展，优先助力科创企业成长，优先支持民营经济，优先支持民生需求，优先投入收益更高领 域。"在严守风险底线的前提下，我行制定了全年500亿元的信贷增量目标，同比有所提升，增速将维持 在6%至7%的稳健区间。"沪农商行管理层表示。 紫金银行（601860）也表示，今年该行将围绕金融"五篇大文章"持续转型，进一步加大对普惠、科技、 绿色金融等 ...

2012 31 2025-05-19 F3014717 Z0013223 01 PART ONE 主要观点 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内大宗商品震荡反弹，其中，工业品震荡反弹，农产品小幅走弱。主因一是，中美在日内瓦贸易会谈后发表联合声明，互相削减了大幅关税，刺激市场情绪 | | | 改善；二是，，一揽子金融政策将加快落实，提振市场信心，改善市场风险偏好；三是，美国4月通胀略低于预期，美联储降息预期再度升温。 | | 海外 | 1）当地时间5月12日，中美在日内瓦贸易会谈后发表联合声明，在90天内大幅削减高关税，但美方仍保留了2025年内对华加征的20%芬太尼关税和10%的对等关 | | | 税。然而即便美国与英国达成关税协议、与中国发布联合声明，但据耶鲁大学实验室测算，截至5月12日，2025年迄今的关税相当于美国平均有效关税税率提高了 | | | 15.4个百分点至17.8%(替代前)，仍是自1934年以来的最高水平。后续关注美国关税政策是否会有反复，例如2018年12月，中美元首在阿根廷G20峰会期间会晤， | | | 同意停止升级关税措施，而 201 ...

Group 1 - The commercial performance in Wuhan during the May Day holiday was notably strong, with luxury goods and gold jewelry being the top choices for tourists [1][2] - Long queues were observed at luxury brand counters, with significant purchases reported, such as a customer buying multiple high-end items in a short time [2][3] - Gold counters became popular, resembling tourist attractions, with customers queuing for gold jewelry and significant purchases being made, including a high-value custom order [3] Group 2 - The WS Dreamland in Wuhan attracted families, with long wait times for attractions, indicating a successful family-oriented marketing strategy [5][7] - The integration of extreme sports events in shopping centers has proven effective in attracting young consumers, leading to impulsive purchases [8][10] - New store openings, such as a popular hamburger shop, generated significant consumer interest and social media buzz, highlighting the importance of experiential marketing [11][13] Group 3 - Innovative financing options, such as interest-free installment plans, have encouraged higher spending among consumers, particularly in luxury and digital products [14] - The transformation of commercial spaces into cultural and experiential venues, like flower exhibitions, has attracted diverse customer demographics, enhancing the shopping experience [17]

固定收益/固收点评 信贷投放有待回暖 ——4 月社融数据点评 ◼ 核心观点 事件：2025 年 5 月 15 日，央行公布 2025 年 4 月金融统计数据：广义 货币 M2 同比增长 8.00%；狭义货币 M1 同比增长 1.50%。2025 年 4 月末社会融资规模存量同比增长 8.7%；2025 年前四个月社会融资规 模增量累计为 16.34 万亿元，比上年同期多 3.61 万亿元。 存量财政政策加速落地，政府融资支持 4 月社融数据增长。4 月社融 同比增速为 8.70%；新增社融初值为 11,585.00 亿元。其中 4 月政府债 券净融资 9,762 亿元，较上年同期多增 10,699 亿元，有力的支撑了社 融规模增长。政府融资是带动新增社融同比多增的重要因素，体现出 政府加杠杆的托底作用；社融结构上的变化体现了财政的支持力度保 持，得益于近期财政存量政策加速落地，我们认为其有望为二季度经 济的稳定增长奠定基调，具体增长结构或还需要针对性发力。4 月社 融口径下信贷乏力：新增人民币贷款 844 亿元，比上年同期少增 2,465 亿元。直接融资方面：4 月企业债净融资增加。非标方面：4 月新增非 标 ...

Core Viewpoint - Financial institutions are increasingly focusing on the consumer sector through diversified means such as consumer credit, payment settlement, scenario finance, and digital services, providing crucial support for consumer upgrades, relief for small and micro enterprises, and rural revitalization [1] Group 1: Collection Scope and Categories - Target participants include banks, insurance institutions, consumer finance companies, and payment institutions [2] - Categories for case collection include: 1. **Consumer Scenario Innovation**: Focus on online-offline integrated scenarios, credit card installment scenarios, and cultural tourism consumption ecosystems [2] 2. **Payment Facilitation**: Emphasizing app payment optimization, cross-border payment services, and digital RMB applications [2] 3. **Consumer Credit Innovation**: Covering personal consumer loan products and insurance-financial integration products [2] 4. **Government-Bank-Enterprise Collaboration**: Joint initiatives for issuing consumption vouchers and promotional activities [2] 5. **Green Consumption Promotion**: Financial support for low-carbon consumption and circular economy projects [2] 6. **Others**: Other typical cases that do not fall into the above categories [2] Group 2: Evaluation Criteria and Process - Evaluation criteria include: - **Innovation**: Whether the model breaks traditional boundaries and introduces new technologies or scenarios [3] - **Comprehensive Effectiveness**: Observable effects on consumer promotion, such as increased consumer satisfaction [3] - **Sustainability**: Replicability of the model and long-term social benefits [3] - The case collection period is from now until May 30, 2025, with submissions sent to a specified email [3] - The evaluation process includes expert reviews based on innovation, effectiveness, replicability, and social impact [3]

2025年05月18日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观点评 实体经济内在动能仍需进一步修复 2025 年 5 月 12 日-2025 年 5 月 18 日周报 财政靠前发力和低基数支撑社融,实体经济融资需求仍弱 2025 年 4 月社会融资规模增量为 1.16 万亿元（前值 5.89 万亿元）,略低于市场预 期的 1.26 万亿元。2025年 4 月社融存量增速+8.7%,较 3 月+0.3PCTS,自今年 1 月以 来总体上行。 同比角度,今年 4 月社融增量同比多增 1.22 万亿元,增加值为 2023年 2 月以来最 高。结构上，4月社融仍然延续年初以来趋势,同比多增主要受益于去年同期社融增量 的低基数和明显靠前发力的财政。4 月代表实体经济融资需求的社融口径新增人民币贷 款，仅录得同比多减 2465 亿元，仅相当于近 5 年同月均值的 11%，显示实体经济融资 需求不足的问题相对凸出。 2025 年 4 月金融机构各项贷款余额增速+7.2%（前值+7.4%） 年初以来延续去年 趋势，增速仍然持续下行。4 月信贷呈现票据冲量特征，企事业单位票据融资高达 8341 亿元，较近五年同月均值高 48.6%，但票 ...

Group 1 - The central bank's report indicates a significant rebound in M2 growth and a high level of social financing, suggesting that market liquidity is reasonably ample and funds are actively flowing into the real economy [1][2] - As of the end of April, M2 balance reached approximately 325 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.0%, while the social financing scale stood at about 424 trillion yuan, growing by 8.7% year-on-year [2] - The increase in M2 is primarily attributed to non-bank deposits, which are linked to a recovering stock market, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the market [2] Group 2 - The growth rate of credit remains robust, with a total increase of 1.006 trillion yuan in RMB loans in the first four months of 2025, and a year-on-year growth of 7.2% as of the end of April [3] - In April, new loans amounted to 280 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 450 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, largely due to the high volume of loans in March [5] - The decline in corporate loans is noted, with a 250 billion yuan year-on-year decrease, while the residential loans saw a slight reduction of 50 billion yuan [5][6] Group 3 - The social financing scale added 1.16 trillion yuan in April, which is approximately 1.22 trillion yuan more than the same month last year, with an increase in growth rate compared to the previous month [7] - The strong fiscal support and rapid bond issuance this year have significantly bolstered social financing, contributing to a favorable economic outlook [7] - Analysts predict that the central bank will continue to implement interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year, which may lead to a recovery in new credit and social financing [8]

[Table_Title] 不负横盘，只争分厘 [Table_Summary] 5 月 12-16 日，关键信息接踵而至。中美关税税率大幅缓和，4 月出 口数据超预期走强，但 PPI 同比与新增信贷则显著偏弱，空头力量占据上 峰，债市进入阶段性防御，收益率普遍上行。 ►债市"三维度"长期逻辑未变，但短期交易节奏被打乱 关税方面，虽然多项附加条款尚未被取消，美国对华综合税率仍在 40%左右，但对等关税超过 100%的降幅超出市场预期，这也意味中美之 间从 4 月中下旬的完全脱钩重新回到了"可贸易"的状态，且对抗关系的缓 和也在一定程度上为转口企业服下一颗定心丸，即贸易预期好转。美线、 欧线航运价格快速上涨，反映国内"抢出口"、"抢转口"处于旺盛状态。 基本面维度，通胀、金融数据接力出炉，内需难增或依然是当前经济 的主要掣肘。PPI 数据表现虽好于预期，但同比 -2.7%的读数难言乐观， 且一季度"信贷开门红"的透支效应开始反映在 4 月数据之中，新增贷款规 模不及预期，同时贴现票据与非银贷款等冲量分项占比极高，1-4 月累计 新增居民贷款也创下近十年最低水平。 证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 对应至政策预期层面，外 ...

2025 年 5 月 18 日 行业研究 盈利维持稳定，基本面韧性强 ——2025 年一季度商业银行主要监管指标点评 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 经营稳健的"真"红利——2024 年四季 度 商 业 银 行 主 要 监 管 指 标 点 评 （2025-2-23） 盈利增速环比提升，资产质量保持稳健— 2024 年三季度商业银行主要监管指标点 评（2024-11-24） 息差维持稳定，不良额率双降——2024 年二季度商业银行主要监管指标点评 （2024-8-11） 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：董文欣 执业证书编号：S0930521090001 010-57378035 dongwx@ebscn.com 表 1：各类银行净利润增长情况 | 银行类型 | | 净利润累计同比（%） | | | 净利润单季同比（%） | | - ...

银行角度看 4 月社融：政府债保持高增，透支与预期影响贷款 银行 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2025 年 05 月 17 日 评级： 增持（维持） | 增持（维持） 评级： | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：戴志锋 | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 | 江苏银行 | 10.73 | 1.69 | 1.65 | 1.91 | 2.03 | 2.15 | 6.35 | 6.50 | 5.62 | 5.29 | 4.98 | 买入 | | | 渝农商行 | 7.27 | 0.94 | 0.99 | 1.07 ...