值得深思的是，特朗普关税政策的代价或将远超预期。历史经验表明，2018年中美贸易战期间，美国农 民和制造业者承担了约90%的关税成本，而此次全面加税可能使普通家庭年均支出增加逾千美元。更深 远的影响在于供应链重构——企业被迫将资源投入地缘政治避险而非效率优化，这种"逆全球化"操作最 终会反映在生产率增速的持续低迷上。世界银行的预警实则为全球经济敲响警钟：当保护主义成为主流 选择，复苏的代价将由所有人共同支付。 世界银行周二（6月10日）发布的《全球经济展望》报告为2025年全球经济描绘了一幅阴郁图景。这份 报告虽未直接点名特朗普，但字里行间透露出其激进的贸易政策正成为拖累经济的关键变量。美国经济 增长预期被大幅下调至1.4%，较2024年的2.8%近乎腰斩，与半年前2.3%的乐观预测形成鲜明对比。这 一调整背后，是特朗普政府拟对全球输美商品加征10%关税的阴影——这项政策若落地，不仅将推高美 国企业成本、加剧通胀压力，更可能引发连锁式贸易报复，进一步压缩全球经济增长空间。 全球经济的韧性正在经受考验。世界银行同步将2025年全球增速预期下调0.4个百分点至2.3%，较去年 下降0.5个百分点，距离衰退警戒线仅 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布全球经济关键预测报告《Morgan Stanley Research: Key Forecasts》，对美元资产仍持积极看法，建议投 资者超配美国股票、美国国债、美国投资级公司信贷，但不看好美元，认为随着美国与其他国家(地区)的经济增长和收益率差异收窄，美元 或会大幅贬值。 摩根士丹利牛熊及基本情景下主要资产预测表如下： | | As of Jun | | Q2 2026 Forecast | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 06. 2025 | Bear | Base | Bull | | Equities | | | | | | S&P 500 | 6.000 | 4,900 | 6,500 | 7,200 | | MSCI Europe | 2.200 | 1.610 | 2,250 | 2,620 | | Topix | 2.769 | 2,100 | 2,900 | 3,250 | | MSCI EM | 1.183 | 870 | 1,200 | 1,360 | | FX | | | | | | JPY. | 145 | ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The World Bank's "Global Economic Outlook" indicates that U.S. tariffs and policy uncertainties will significantly pressure global economies, lowering global growth from 2.7% to 2.3% for the year, compared to 2.8% last year. U.S. growth is revised down from 2.3% to 1.4% [2] - The trade war has caused global trade to stagnate in the second half of the year, impacting supply chains, but a recession is not expected. The effects of Trump's tariff policies continue, leading to increased uncertainty and market volatility [2] - Technically, gold has been fluctuating, with a focus on resistance at $3342. A drop below $3300 could accelerate declines [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Iran's Security Council warns that any Israeli attacks on its nuclear facilities will be met with retaliation, strengthening Iran's resolve to develop nuclear weapons. U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations show progress but remain contentious, with the U.S. demanding a halt to uranium enrichment [4] - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day, continuing a trend for four months. However, five members are not meeting their production targets, with actual increases at 180,000 barrels per day against a planned 310,000 [4] - Geopolitical tensions are rising, contributing to higher oil prices [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Oil prices extended gains, reaching a high of $66.25, with a quick pullback observed. Support is noted at $64.40, and a drop below this level could lead to further declines towards $63.60 [6] - Copper prices are experiencing a tight range after volatile trading, with support at $4.77 and resistance at $4.90. A break below support could accelerate declines, while a breakout above resistance could lead to further bullish momentum [8] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has broken through resistance at 37800 and is in a bullish trend, recently touching 38400 before a quick pullback. The upward trend is expected to continue, with resistance at 38700 [9]

Group 1 - The World Bank has significantly lowered its global economic growth forecast, with nearly 70% of economies experiencing downward revisions due to tariffs and increased policy uncertainty [1] - The World Bank projects a global economic growth of 2.3% in 2025, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the January forecast, marking it as the slowest growth year since 2008 [1] - Developed economies are expected to grow at 1.2% in 2025, with the US growth forecast reduced to 1.4%, the Eurozone at 0.7%, and Japan also at 0.7% [1] Group 2 - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow at 3.8%, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points from the January forecast, with growth slowdowns expected across various regions [2] - The World Bank has not revised its growth forecast for China this year, citing new fiscal policies that can offset the impact of rising trade barriers [2] - Global trade volume growth is expected to be 1.8% and 2.4% for this year and next, respectively, both lower than previous forecasts [2] Group 3 - The World Bank's Chief Economist indicated that resolving trade disputes through agreements could lead to higher global economic growth than currently predicted [4] - The OECD has also downgraded its global economic growth forecast for this year and next, now expecting a GDP growth of 2.9% [4] - The OECD has revised the US economic growth forecast down to 1.6% for this year, while raising the overall inflation expectation to 3.2% [4]

Group 1 - International oil prices showed volatility, with a decline in closing prices on June 10, 2023. The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery fell by $0.31 to $64.98 per barrel, a decrease of 0.47%. Brent crude oil for August delivery decreased by $0.17 to $66.87 per barrel, down 0.25% [1] - Optimism surrounding the China-US trade talks is providing support for oil prices, as indicated by Harry Tchilinguirian from Onyx Capital Group [1] - Saudi Aramco is expected to ship approximately 47 million barrels of crude oil to China in July, a decrease of 1 million barrels compared to June, which may signal an early indication of OPEC+ exiting production cuts [1] Group 2 - According to a survey by S&P Global, analysts estimate a decrease of 1.9 million barrels in US commercial crude oil inventories, while gasoline and refined product inventories are expected to increase by 1.7 million barrels and 0.9 million barrels, respectively [2] - The US Energy Information Administration's monthly short-term energy outlook report indicates that US oil companies will reduce drilling activities due to low oil prices, leading to a decrease in drilling and completion numbers over the next 18 months [2] - The report projects that US average daily crude oil production will decline from 13.5 million barrels per day in Q2 to 13.3 million barrels per day in Q4 of this year, with an average slightly above 13.4 million barrels per day expected for the year [2]

当地时间周二，美股三大指数集体收涨，纳指涨 0.63% ，标普 500 指数涨 0.55% ，道指涨 0.25% 。其 中，纳指、标普 500 指数续创 2 月底以来收盘新高，道指创 3 月初以来收盘新高。 大型科技股多数上涨，英特尔涨近 8% ，创 2 个月以来最大单日涨幅；特斯拉涨逾 5% ，谷歌、 Meta 涨超 1% ，苹果、英伟达、亚马逊小幅上涨；奈飞跌超 1% ，微软小幅下跌。 热门中概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨 0.3% 。蔚来涨超 5% ，爱奇艺、新东方涨超 2% ；腾 讯音乐跌近 1% 。 美股的大幅上涨，主要得益于美国商务部长卢特尼克对外释放的积极信号，他表示中美贸易谈判进展顺 利。 发达国家中，由于贸易壁垒增加、创纪录的不确定性以及金融市场波动加剧，世界银行预计 2025 年美 国经济增速为 1.4% 。而今年 1 月份，该机构曾预测 2025 年美国经济将增长 2.3% 。 此外，世界银行预计今年将有近60%的发展中经济体面临经济放缓，比1月份的预测下调了0.3个百分 点。 而在当地时间周一， 特朗普政府向上诉法院辩称，美国国际贸易法院（ CIT ）取消对等关税的判决是 非法的 ...

世界银行下调了对今年全球经济增长的预测。 6月10日周二，世界银行将2025年全球经济增长预期从今年1月预测的2.7%下调至2.3%，这意味着过去 17年来，该增速仅优于2009年全球金融危机和2020年新冠疫情引发的经济衰退期间。 世界银行警告称，由于贸易紧张局势和政策不确定性，2020年代可能成为自"阿波罗登月"以来表现最差 的十年。 世界银行还警告，本世纪20年代前7年的全球年均经济增速预计仅为2.5%，为上世纪60年代以来最慢的 十年平均增长水平。 70%国家被下调经济增速 世界银行在最新发布的《全球经济展望》报告中，下调了近70%的国家的增长预期。 美国今年预计经济仅增长1.4%，比原预测下调了0.9个百分点。 欧元区与日本的增长经济增长率预期均为0.7%，分别下调了0.3和0.5个百分点。 世界银行在报告中警告称： "如果贸易限制升级或政策不确定性持续存在，经济增长可能会放缓，并可能导致金融压力 加剧。" 预计今年将有近60%的发展中经济体面临经济放缓，比1月份的预测下调了0.3个百分点。 低收入国家的增长率预期为5.3%，也比之前的预测下调了0.4个百分点。 其他风险还包括，主要经济体增长放缓的 ...

新华财经纽约6月10日电（记者刘亚南）世界银行10日发布最新一期《全球经济展望》报告，将2025年 全球经济增长预期从今年1月份的2.7%下调至2.3%，近70%的经济体增速被下调。 值得注意的是，世界银行预计今年和明年全球贸易量增速分别为1.8%和2.4%，比1月份预测分别低1.3和 0.8个百分点。 报告预计，全球经济在2026年和2027年将出现疲弱的反弹，全球经济产出仍将低于今年1月份的预测。 新兴市场和发展中经济体在缩小与发达经济体人均收入差距和减少极端贫困方面的进展预计仍将不足， 这方面的前景很大程度上依赖于全球贸易政策的演化。 （文章来源：新华财经） 报告预计，今年发达经济体经济将增长1.2%，比此前预测低0.5个百分点。其中，美国经济增速从此前 的2.3%大幅下调至1.4%，而其2024年增速为2.8%。今年欧元区和日本经济增速均被下调至0.7%。 同时，今年新兴市场和发展中经济体预计增长3.8%，比此前预测低0.3个百分点。其中，对今年中国经 济增速预测仍维持在4.5%不变。 世界银行高级副行长兼首席经济学家英德米特·吉尔（Indermit Gill）表示："除亚洲以外的发展中世界正 在变成 ...

世界银行：未来十年全球经济可能会出现自20世纪60年代以来最弱的表现。 ...

策略报告 | 投资策略 赛点 2.0 仍处于第三阶段攻坚 证券研究报告 政策与大类资产配置周观察 海内外政策要闻 国家主席习近平应约同美国总统特朗普通电话。6月5日晚，国家主席习近平应约 同美国总统特朗普通电话。习近平指出，校正中美关系这艘大船的航向，需要我 们把好舵、定好向，尤其是排除各种干扰甚至破坏，这尤为重要。根据美方提议， 两国经贸牵头人在日内瓦举行会谈，迈出了通过对话协商解决经贸问题的重要一 步，受到两国各界和国际社会普遍欢迎，也证明对话和合作是唯一正确的选择。 国务院总理李强同加拿大总理卡尼通电话。国务院总理李强6月6日上午应约同加 拿大总理卡尼通电话。李强表示，加拿大是最早同新中国建交的西方国家之一， 中加关系曾长期走在中国同西方国家关系的前列。但前几年，中加关系受到不必 要的干扰，遭遇严重困难。中方愿同加方一道，本着向前看的态度，推动两国关 系持续改善，步入健康稳定发展轨道，更好实现合作共赢。 OECD发布最新一期经济展望报告。当地时间6月3日，经济合作与发展组织（经 合组织）发布最新一期经济展望报告，预计2025年和2026年全球经济增速均为 2.9%，较今年3月预测值分别下调0.2和0.1 ...