近期，美国联邦巡回上诉法院批准恢复执行特朗普的关税政策，这一消息瞬间吸引全球目光，再次将特朗普 的关税政策推至风口浪尖。 回溯特朗普的关税政策，其范围之广、力度之大令人咋舌。当地时间2月1日，特朗普签署行政令，宣布对来 自加拿大和墨西哥的进口商品征收25%的关税，对进口自中国的商品加征10%的关税；10日，又宣布对所有进 口至美国的钢铁和铝征收25%关税，后续还考虑对汽车、芯片和药品征收关税。这些举措涉及商品价值高达2 万多亿美元，远超2018年中美贸易摩擦期间。其所谓"对等关税"政策，更是企图以匹配美国和贸易伙伴进口 商品税率为借口，颠覆全球贸易现状。 特朗普（资料图） 特朗普的关税大棒挥舞之下，全球企业苦不堪言。美国本土的福特等汽车制造商，因关键汽车零部件加征 25%关税，面临额外成本和市场不稳定问题。GlobalData数据显示，汽车制造大国日本在2023年向美国出口了 148万辆汽车，汽车行业占其对美国出口总额近30%，美国此举令日本汽车行业遭受重创。不仅如此， AlixPartners预测，特朗普关税施行后，美国市场每年销售的1600万辆汽车中，近1/4将受到直接冲击，零部件 供应链也难以幸免，额外 ...

制作日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日 热点品种 端午节期间，国际原油价格因 OPEC+增产幅度未超预期、加拿大野火影响原油生 产及乌克兰炸毁俄罗斯境内多架战略轰炸机而反弹。欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油 产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅 度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。 加拿大阿尔伯塔省的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产。雪佛龙 此前在委内瑞拉运营的更广泛的许可证到期。美国特朗普政府 5 月 28 日向雪佛 龙公司颁发了简化版的许可证，允许其继续留在委内瑞拉，对设备进行最低限度 的维护，但禁止在委内瑞拉生产石油，这是美国政府对委内瑞拉石油行业的制裁 升级，其目的是避免向委内瑞拉总统马杜罗政府支付任何可能的款项。雪佛龙占 委内瑞拉石油产量的五分之一。目前尚不清楚该政策是否会扩展到委内瑞拉石油 行业的其他外国合作伙伴。另外特朗普威胁称可以对伊朗和俄罗斯加大制裁大幅 削减伊朗和俄罗斯石油出口，不过特朗普的威胁只是现在促成美伊核协议和俄乌 停火的谈判手段。目前伊朗和俄罗斯原油出口受制裁影响不大，而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, stated that the fragmentation of global trade has a negative impact on global economic growth [1] Group 1 - The fragmentation of global trade is identified as a significant issue affecting economic performance [1] - Bailey emphasized the importance of cohesive trade relationships for sustaining economic growth [1] - The statement reflects broader concerns regarding the implications of trade barriers and geopolitical tensions on the economy [1]

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Group 1 - Global stock markets are nearing historical highs, with analysts predicting further increases supported by "buying the dip" activities [1][4] - The MSCI All Country World Index is just 0.5% away from surpassing its historical closing high of 887.72 points set on February 18, having rebounded 19% from its low in April [1] - Many investors are seeking potential pullback opportunities to deploy funds, as the U.S. temporarily exempted most tariffs on trade partners, boosting market risk appetite [4] Group 2 - Analysts forecast an 11% increase in the MSCI global stock benchmark index over the next 12 months, with strategists beginning to adjust allocations to major markets [4] - Morgan Stanley strategists have raised their positions on U.S. stocks and bonds, anticipating that a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will support bonds and boost corporate earnings [4] - European stocks have emerged as significant winners, with 8 out of the 10 best-performing stock markets globally this year located in Europe [4][5] Group 3 - The Euro Stoxx 600 index has outperformed the S&P 500 index by 18 percentage points, driven by historic fiscal spending plans in Germany and a stronger euro [5] - Strong corporate earnings and attractive valuations in Europe are making the region a safer investment option amid trade and fiscal debt concerns in the U.S. [5] - Interest in European markets has surged, with inquiries about Europe increasing more in the past two months than in the last decade [5]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden drop in Hong Kong and A50 indices is attributed to multiple factors, including the reintroduction of U.S. steel tariffs, a general decline in the Asia-Pacific stock market, and warnings from Morgan Stanley regarding the U.S. dollar and economic conditions [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Hong Kong stock market and A50 index experienced significant declines, with Hong Kong's drop exceeding 2.5% [1]. - The overall sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region was negative, with major indices like the Hang Seng Tech Index and the National Enterprises Index falling nearly 3% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The reintroduction of U.S. tariffs on steel has raised concerns about global trade dynamics, contributing to market volatility [1]. - Morgan Stanley's report indicated potential weakness in the U.S. dollar due to interest rate cuts and sluggish economic growth, adding to market uncertainty [5]. - The presence of short-selling activities intensified the market's downward trend, as there were no substantial positive developments during the holiday period [5]. Group 3: Outlook for A-shares - A-shares are expected to open lower due to the negative sentiment from the Hong Kong and A50 declines, but a significant drop is not anticipated [7]. - Despite the expected weak performance, there may be support from mysterious funds aimed at stabilizing the market and preventing excessive declines [7]. - Positive influences from the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, such as the central bank's 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operations, could provide support for A-shares [7].

Group 1 - The latest data indicates a concerning trend in the U.S. labor market, with continued unemployment claims rising to 1.92 million, the highest level since November 2021, exceeding economists' expectations of 1.89 million, suggesting potential pressure on the labor market [1] - The increase in unemployment claims has not yet shown a significant impact in the non-farm payroll report, with the unemployment rate in April at 4.2%, the highest since July of the previous year, but this increase has not raised widespread market concerns [1][3] - Analysts believe the current labor market trend reflects a "low hiring, low layoffs" state, with initial unemployment claims slightly up by 14,000 to 240,000, indicating that the overall economy is still absorbing labor despite a slowdown [3] Group 2 - Experts anticipate that the labor market may face more noticeable pressure in the coming months, particularly with the release of non-farm employment data and expectations of economic growth slowing in the second half of the year [5] - The dynamics of the labor market are becoming crucial for observing future economic trends, influenced by high inflation, rising interest rates, and global trade uncertainties [3]

Group 1 - Global market downturn triggered by geopolitical uncertainties, including US tariff policies and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 2.2% to 22,778 points and a trading volume of HKD 883.9 billion [1] - Analysts predict a potential second "slight" pullback in the market from late May to July, influenced by increased market supply from numerous financing projects in Hong Kong [1] - The performance of the A-share market, which is currently closed, may impact the Hang Seng Index due to a lack of support from mainland funds, with expectations of a strong performance upon reopening [1] Group 2 - Increased IPO pressure in the Hong Kong market has led to greater market supply, with high-profile companies engaging in large-scale placements, resulting in valuation pressures [2] - Structural bubbles are forming in the new consumption sector, where companies are experiencing a divergence between high valuations and underwhelming performance, necessitating market correction [2] - Analysts foresee opportunities in undervalued sectors in the second half of the year, while previously heavily financed sectors may face challenges [2]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利最新研报指出，在美联储降息周期与全球经济增速放缓的双重压力下，美元指数(DXY)或将开启深度调整。以马修·霍恩巴赫 为首的策略师团队在5月31日发布的报告中预测，到2026年年中，美元指数将较当前水平下跌约9%，跌至91点，创2020年新冠疫情爆发以来新低。这一预测 与市场对美元前景的重新评估形成共振，尤其在特朗普政府贸易政策引发全球对美元地位反思的背景下，美元指数已从2025年2月高点回落近10%。 在货币市场，摩根士丹利明确看好三大非美币种：欧元兑美元汇率有望从当前的1.13升至1.25，受益于欧洲央行相对谨慎的降息节奏与能源价格回落带来的 贸易条件改善;日元作为传统避险资产，其汇率可能从143日元升至130日元，尤其在特朗普贸易政策加剧全球不确定性背景下，日元套息交易平仓风险将持 续支撑其汇率;英镑兑美元或从1.35升至1.45，这主要得益于英国相对温和的贸易环境，以及当前5.25%的高政策利率所带来的利差优势。 值得注意的是，摩根大通策略师米拉·钱丹团队上周同步释放看跌美元信号，建议投资者做空美元并转而看好日元、欧元和澳元。亚洲交易时段早盘，美元 指数延续跌势，彭博美元现 ...

新华财经悉尼6月1日电（记者李晓渝）美国总统特朗普5月30日在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文称，6 月4日起，将把钢铁和铝的进口关税从25%提高至50%。澳大利亚媒体指出，这一举措可能影响澳大利 亚相关行业共10万个就业岗位，以及约4.14亿澳元的产品出口。实际上，该举措对澳大利亚经济短期内 的直接影响可能并不大，但必然会影响其经济前景。 澳大利亚钢铁行业和铝业规模都相对较小。资料显示，澳钢铁行业共有四家主要炼钢厂，年成品钢材产 量大约是530万吨。澳铝业也有四家主要铝冶炼厂在运营，2024年原铝金属产量约为158万吨，其中150 万吨用于出口。 新南威尔士大学法学教授丽莎·图希此前表示，澳大利亚钢铁行业和铝业及其上下游行业都将面临如何 应对全球市场不确定性的挑战。该国有大约1.2万家企业向美国出口，主要对美出口产品包括金融服 务、黄金、肉类、运输服务和疫苗等。现在这些企业都要担心美国关税是否会扩大到这些品类。 悉尼大学经济学院国际贸易专家弗拉基米尔·铁亚热利尼科夫（Valdimir Tyazhelnikov）指出，澳大利亚 面临的最大风险是潜在的全球贸易战可能会扰乱供应链，削弱东亚和东南亚的制造业活动，进而 ...