2025年7月1日，中国水泥协会发布《关于进一步推动水泥行业"反内卷""稳增长"高质量发展工作的意 见》。该意见明确提出，所有会员企业要深刻认识产能置换政策对于促进水泥行业结构优化、转型升级 的重要意义。 一方面，随着行业供给端的优化，市场竞争秩序将得到规范，水泥价格有望回归合理区间，也将提升水 泥产品的销售价格和毛利空间；另一方面，行业加速整合，落后产能逐步被淘汰，行业集中度将进一步 提高。东兴证券指出，市场剧烈竞争下的优胜劣汰叠加"反内卷"等各项政策落地，都共同发力加速建筑 建材行业落后产能的淘汰，加速行业供给端优化。这将进一步巩固优秀和龙头公司发展和成长的确定 性，带来估值修复和业绩弹性，预计水泥行业"反内卷"政策的率先落地将为行业带来更好的供给端优 化。(秦声) 天山股份在公告中表示："报告期内，公司紧抓管理精细，降本控费，推进价格修复与成本优化双向发 力，水泥销售价格同比上升，销售成本同比下降，实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比大幅减亏。" 国家统计局数据显示，2025年1—5月，全国累计水泥产量6.59亿吨，同比下降4%，降幅较1—4月扩大 1.2个百分点，较去年同期收窄5.8个百分点。下游需求方 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic, indicating a potential recovery in profitability and valuation levels for the steel industry due to the "anti-involution" policy [1][4]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to shift the steel industry from low-cost homogeneous competition to high-end differentiated competition, which is expected to lead to a reversal in industry profitability and valuation levels [1][4]. - The steel industry is currently facing weak demand, with prices and profit levels declining. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for black metal smelting and rolling industries has dropped to 89.8, the lowest among five sub-industries [2][4]. - The current state of the steel industry shows a divergence in profitability between upstream and midstream sectors, with upstream mining absorbing most of the industry's profits [2][4]. Summary by Sections Current Industry Status - The steel industry is experiencing weak demand, with PPI for black metal smelting and rolling industries at 89.8, indicating a decline in prices and profits [2]. - The gross profit margin for black metal smelting and rolling industries is only 5.48%, significantly lower than the 19.57% margin for black metal mining [2]. Comparison with 2015 Supply-Side Reform - The supply-demand situation in the steel industry has improved compared to 2015, with a reduction in the degree of supply surplus [3][4]. - The current "anti-involution" policy is less administratively forceful than the 2015 supply-side reforms, which were primarily focused on eliminating outdated production capacity [3]. Policy Impact and Guidance - The "anti-involution" policy aims to prevent homogeneous competition and emphasizes the need for market mechanisms and industry self-regulation to optimize and upgrade production capacity [4]. - The policy includes stricter standards for capacity elimination and encourages the adoption of green and intelligent production methods [5]. Inventory and Profitability Outlook - The steel inventory is expected to rise from the bottom, with significant reductions in social inventory levels for rebar and wire rod [6]. - The industry's return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) have declined due to the real estate market downturn, but the "anti-involution" policy may help restore market sentiment and improve profitability [6]. Valuation Observations - The current median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the steel industry is 35.51X, indicating potential for valuation recovery as supply-demand structures improve [6].

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant rebound in the A-share photovoltaic sector, driven by government policies aimed at addressing "involution" competition and promoting supply-side reforms [2][3]. - As of July 11, the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index has increased by 7.66% in July, with leading stocks like Hongyuan Green Energy rising by 25.93% and Tongwei Co. increasing by 21.73% [2]. - The government has emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity, indicating a shift towards more structured competition in the photovoltaic industry [2][3]. Group 2 - The price of silicon materials has surged to approximately 45,000 yuan per ton, marking a 25% increase, while N-type raw material prices have also risen by 6%-7% [3]. - Analysts suggest that the price increases in the upstream silicon sector will likely lead to price adjustments in downstream components, including batteries and modules, as supply chain expectations shift [3]. - The rebound in industry prices is seen as a crucial step towards achieving a more orderly competitive environment in the photovoltaic sector, with expectations for a solidification of the industry's fundamentals [3]. Group 3 - Globally, the photovoltaic market in Europe is expected to grow steadily, despite challenges such as the cancellation of incentive programs and slow progress in electrification [4]. - In the U.S., short-term impacts from tariff policies are affecting photovoltaic component prices and investment willingness, but long-term growth is anticipated as domestic production capacity increases [4]. - Other regions, including the Middle East, are projected to become significant sources of demand for photovoltaic installations, with substantial imports expected from China [4]. Group 4 - The Xinhua Outbound Index has shown positive performance, with the New Energy Outbound Index rising nearly 2.8%, driven by policy support and favorable mid-year earnings expectations for some companies [5]. - Notable stock performance includes Sunshine Power, which saw a weekly increase of 12.50% [5]. Group 5 - The Xinhua New Energy Outbound Index reached 2105.54, reflecting a 2.76% increase, with contributions primarily from photovoltaic equipment and communication devices [6]. - The index has shown a 40.68% return over the past year, indicating strong performance in the sector [6].

Core Viewpoint - The essence of "anti-involution" and capacity reduction is a necessary requirement for the deep transformation of China's economy and optimization of its economic structure [1] Group 1: Key Points on Capacity Reduction - The previous round of capacity reduction was significantly effective due to four key points: the importance of capacity reduction being elevated to the level of people's livelihood and social stability, the central government clearly defining the scale of excess capacity, state-owned enterprises being the main force in capacity reduction, and ensuring employment and livelihood as a crucial bottom line [2] - The central government's continuous emphasis on "anti-involution" helps improve market expectations regarding the correction of supply surplus [3] - The short-term focus of "anti-involution" will primarily be on controlling new capacity while optimizing existing capacity, with limited market clearing intensity [4] Group 2: Industry Self-Regulation and Standards - Current optimization of existing capacity mainly relies on self-regulation at the industry association level, differing from the administrative measures of the previous round of capacity reduction [5] - Low-standard backward capacity is expected to exit first, with the definition of backward capacity evolving to include industry technical standards alongside energy consumption and environmental protection [6] - Industries with low capacity utilization and high energy consumption or environmental requirements are likely to push for the exit of backward capacity more quickly, while industries with lower capacity utilization but higher technical characteristics may require clearer definitions before proceeding [7]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.11」 铁矿石市场周报 港口库存由增转降 铁矿期价震荡走高 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至7月11日收盘，铁矿主力合约期价为764（+31.5）元/吨，青岛港麦克粉795（+22）元/干吨。 2. 发运：本期澳巴发运总量环比-362.7万吨。2025年06月30日-07月06日Mysteel全球铁矿石发运总量2994.9万吨，环比减少 362.7万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2465.0万吨，环比减少417.3万吨。 3. 到港：本期47港到港量+122万吨。2025年06月30日-07月06日中国47港到港总量2535.5万吨，环比增加122.0万吨；中国45港到 港总量2483.9万吨，环比增加120.9万吨；北方六港到港总量1412.0万吨，环比增加194.8万吨。 4. ...

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Core Viewpoint - The recent verbal notice of production limits to some steel mills in Shanxi has sparked renewed interest in the steel industry investment sector, with significant price increases in rebar and hot-rolled steel, leading to stock price surges for companies like Baosteel and Fushun Special Steel [1] Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, indicating a new round of supply-side reforms [2][7] - The meeting's high-level nature has opened up market expectations for future policies aimed at controlling industry capacity and increasing related commodity prices [1][7] - The construction industry has also initiated a "反内卷" (anti-involution) initiative to promote industry transformation and eliminate low-quality competition [2] Group 2: Industry Performance and Price Trends - The main contract price of polysilicon has increased by over 20% since July, while the price increase for rebar and hot-rolled steel has been less than 5%, indicating differing market expectations for various commodities [1] - The steel industry has seen a slight increase in concentration, with the CR10 rising from 41.4% in 2021 to 42% in 2024, driven by mergers among leading steel companies [3] - Despite ongoing capacity optimization, the steel industry still faces significant overcapacity, with a current utilization rate of 87.9% and a total crude steel production target of 1 billion tons for 2024 [3][4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - The steel industry is experiencing "involution" competition, characterized by price wars that lead to reduced overall profits and resource wastage [6] - Analysts express cautious optimism regarding steel prices, noting that while there is potential for price rebounds, significant improvements in supply-demand dynamics are unlikely in the near term [7] - The current market environment is complex, with structural changes in demand and a weak real estate market limiting the potential for a repeat of previous supply-side reform-driven bull markets [7]

业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 「2025.07.11」 瑞达期货研究院 螺纹钢市场周报 反内卷继续助力 螺纹期价扩大涨幅 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至7月11日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3133（+61），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3280（+40）。（单 位：元/吨） 2. 产量：螺纹产量由增转降。216.66（-4.42）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：消费淡季，表观需求回落。本期表需221.5（-3.37），（同比-13.77）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库增，社库降。螺纹钢总库存540.37（-4.84），（同比-238.17）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率59.74%，环比上周增加0.43个百分点，同比去年增加22.94个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）6月份全球制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，较上月上 ...

文/曹萌 7月11日，一则山西部分钢厂收到限产口头通知的信息再度点燃了钢铁行业期 现 投资板块。其中， 螺纹钢、 热卷等 钢材品种期价涨幅超1% ，包钢股份、 抚顺特钢 股价涨停。 近年来，政策端严控粗钢新增产能，实施更为严格的产能置换方案，加快推动钢铁行业转型升级。此 前，河北、山西等地均发布了退出1000立方米以下的高炉设备政策，如2024年，全国退出高炉42 座，对应总炼铁产能3471万吨，多为1000立方米以下小型高 炉。根据相关统计，目前我国1000立 方米以下的高炉仍有300余座，产能占比在13.7%左右。 近日，钢铁、多晶硅、煤炭等行业的期现投资品种轮番上涨，而其上涨的背景是本月初召开的中央财 经委第六次会议再次强调"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争…推动落后产能有序退出"。 从过往来看，后续相关政策的落地基本均围绕中央财经委会议的主题， 如现代产业体系、人口问题 和以旧换新等。加之中央财经委会议本身级别较高，因此，也打开了市场对后续控制行业产能、提高 相关商品价格的想象空间。 但从不同商品品类的价格波动来看，多晶 硅主力 合约期价7月以来的涨幅已超过20%，而螺纹钢、 热卷等 钢材品种主力合约期价 ...