金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 一票之差，特朗普减税案在众院涉险过关，参院还有难关得过。美联储当红 理事沃勒：减税法案引发美债抛售，若关税企稳下半年将降息。美国5 月Markit 制造业和服务业 PMI 均超预期且扩张，价格指数再涨。欧元区 5 月 PMI 意外 萎缩，服务业创 16 个月来最差表现。美日财长会后表态：美方"没谈汇率， 当前汇率反映基本面"，日方"没谈美债"。国内轮动较快，市场主线驱动 力较弱，股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 防守观望。 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 近期市场进入了数据真空区，缺乏新鲜的利多或利空因素，震荡成为了市场 的共识。从期货的走势来看，多空力量势均力敌，震荡期间每当触碰到区间 上下沿，都会迎来多空的短兵相接。短期若无增量信息或基本面数据指引， 料震荡格局仍将延续，市场可能继续以利差挖掘为主导。 ◆ 策略建议： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021839 研究员： 张志恒 短期看好。 研究咨询部 2025-05-23 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 从业编号：F03102085 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年5月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：特朗普的税收法案在众议院批准后提交参议院，金价小幅回落；美国三 大股指涨跌不一，欧洲主要股市全线收跌；跌7.58个基点报4.529%，离岸人民币小 幅波动报7.2049；美债收益率回落，10年期美债收益率跌7.58个基点报4.529%； COMEX黄金期货跌0.56%报3295.10美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注没视频4月新屋销售、欧央行和美联储官员讲话。特朗普的税收 法案在众议院批准后提交参议院，金价回落。沪金溢价震荡至7元/克左右，国内情 绪迅速升温。逻辑开始转至美国减税法案，虽仍有贸 ...

大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现！ 美联储降息大消息 美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示，如果特朗普政府对美国贸易伙伴征收的关税维持在约10%的水平，美联储可能在2025年下半年开始降 息。 沃勒周四在接受福克斯商业频道采访时表示："如果我们能将关税降到接近10%，并且在7月前尘埃落定、彻底落实，那么下半年我们就 处于一个不错的位置。" 他补充道："那美联储就有良好条件，在下半年进行一系列降息行动。" 由于整体经济表现稳健，以及对特朗普关税政策的不确定性，美联储官员今年一直维持基准利率不变。 特朗普已对数十个美国贸易伙伴实施了10%的基础关税，并暂时搁置了征收更高关税的计划。他还对许多中国进口商品加征了30%的关 税，此前对中国商品征收的关税甚至曾超过100%。 当被问及导致美债遭抛售的原因时，沃勒表示，他从金融市场的参与者那里听到了关于共和党税收法案的反馈。 沃勒说道："他们原本以为这项法案会在财政紧缩方面做得更多，但实际上并没有看到这种情况。" 美股情况 5月22日晚间，美股开盘后出现了企稳现象，三大指数走势震荡，道指微涨，纳指涨约0.6%，标普500指数微涨。 尽管近期对华关税有所缓解，经济学家普遍预计特 ...

Important News - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a tax reform bill proposed by Trump, which will significantly reduce taxes, cut social spending, and increase federal debt; Democrats criticized the bill as a tax cut for the wealthy and a weakening of social security [1] Company News - TSMC and other manufacturers are advising the U.S. Department of Commerce to exempt semiconductor-related tariffs [2] - Sanofi will acquire clinical-stage biotech company Vigil Neuroscience for $470 million in cash, with the total acquisition price potentially rising to $600 million if subsequent development milestones are met [3] - Cigna announced a new agreement with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to set a cap on out-of-pocket costs for weight loss medications [3] - Google has announced the launch of AI search ad testing for desktop users in the U.S. starting today [3] Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week was 227,000, down from the previous value of 229,000 [4] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 5.15%, marking the highest level since October 2023 [4] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that if tariffs decrease, the Fed is expected to lower interest rates in the second half of 2025 [4] - Nike is expected to implement widespread price increases on products in the U.S. market as early as this week [4] - Walmart is laying off nearly 1,500 employees in its technology department [4] - Zoom reported a 2.9% year-over-year revenue growth to $1.17 billion for the first fiscal quarter, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.35, exceeding market expectations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "Beautiful Law" has passed in the House of Representatives, marking a significant legislative achievement in U.S. history, primarily focused on large-scale tax cuts and border security measures [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Tax Provisions - The legislation includes substantial tax reductions, eliminating the tip tax and overtime tax, and providing tax cuts for purchasing American-made vehicles [1] Border Security Measures - The bill incorporates strong border security initiatives, including increased funding for ICE and border patrol personnel, as well as financial support for the "Golden Dome" plan [1] Additional Provisions - The law introduces a "Trump Savings Account" for newborns, aiming to provide financial benefits from an early age [1] Legislative Process - The House Speaker Johnson and the leadership team are commended for their efforts, and there is an urgent call for the Senate to act swiftly to send the bill to the President's desk [1]

美国总统特朗普："美丽大法案"减税法案具有重大意义。 ...

每经记者｜郑步春 每经编辑｜肖芮冬 周四A股普跌，小微股领跌。截至收盘，上证综指跌0.22%至3380.19点；深综指跌0.95%，创业板综指 跌1.15%，科创50指数跌0.48%，北证50指数跌6.15%。全A总成交额为11397亿元，较周三的12144亿元 有所减少。 银行、保险、煤炭、石油、公共交通等权重股逆势上涨，军工股表现也相对不错。其余多数个股下跌， 其中近期表现较好的小盘股回调明显。若分行业看，电池、非金属材料、工程咨询服务、汽车服务、专 业服务、美容护理、仪器仪表、电子化学品、食品饮料等板块跌幅居前。 关于小盘股的回调，多数机构认为主要原因是小盘股最近涌入的资金过多，交易过分拥挤，一旦市场情 绪出现些许波动，便随时可能回吐。 其他市场方面，隔夜美国金融市场出现"股汇债三杀"局面，美股三大股指跌幅均在1%以上。债市方 面，美30年期公债收益率由4.973%升至5.094%，20年期公债收益率由4.998%升至5.122%，10年期由 4.487%升至4.601%。汇市方面，美元指数显著下跌0.40%至99.61点。 周四港股恒指跌1.19%，恒生科技指数跌1.70%。人民币汇率周三小有升值，周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. bond market is experiencing significant turmoil, driven by concerns over rising debt levels and proposed tax cuts by the Trump administration, leading to a sharp increase in bond yields and a lack of investor interest in bond auctions [1][3]. Bond Market Summary - The 20-year U.S. Treasury bond auction faced extremely low demand, with interest rates soaring above 5%, marking the coldest auction in five years [3]. - The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.1%, nearing a 20-year high, while the 10-year yield climbed to 4.595%, indicating that borrowing costs are increasing for both the government and consumers [3]. Stock Market Summary - The stock market reacted negatively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 817 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, reflecting investor concerns over fiscal policies [5]. - As the stock market declined, investors shifted towards gold and Bitcoin as safe-haven assets, indicating a flight to safety amid rising uncertainty [5]. Investor Sentiment Summary - Market participants are skeptical about the government's ability to genuinely reduce the deficit, as highlighted by comments from industry experts [5]. - The current state of the bond market is likened to a stressed individual facing financial pressures, exacerbated by proposed tax cuts without clear funding sources [5].

FICC日报 | 2025-05-22 煤炭行业反弹，沪指收涨 市场分析 政策支持小微企业。金融监管总局等八部门联合印发《支持小微企业融资的若干措施》提出，加大首贷、信用贷、 中长期贷、法人类贷款、民营类贷款投放。指导银行加强贷款利率定价管理，合理确定小微企业贷款利率。降低 贷款附加费用，指导银行清理违规收费，规范与第三方合作。海外方面，新税收法案将特朗普第一任总统任期内 的减税政策延长，同时大幅削减政府支出以支付减税费用，市场担忧该政策将导致联邦债务规模进一步扩大。当 天20年期美国国债拍卖结果不佳，表明市场需求疲软。 股指震荡上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收红，上证指数涨0.21%收于3387.57点，创业板指涨0.83%。行业方 面，板块指数涨跌互现，煤炭、有色金属、电力设备行业领涨，美容护理、电子、传媒、社会服务行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交金额保持在1.2万亿元附近。海外市场，美联储官员强调，在经济面临高度不确定性的情况下， 美联储在调整政策之前可以保持耐心并评估即将发布的数据。美股三大指数全线收跌，道指跌1.91%报41860.44点。 IC增仓。期货市场，基差方面，当日仅IH基差回升。成交持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. House Republicans have decided to vote on a comprehensive tax cut plan for Trump before Thursday morning local time [1] Group 1 - The vote is scheduled to take place before noon Beijing time [1]