Group 1 - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that oral GLP-1 weight loss drugs will become a significant product cycle in the biopharmaceutical sector, capturing 24% and 32% of the weight loss drug market by 2030 and 2035, respectively, with market sizes reaching $22.3 billion and $38.1 billion [1] - Pfizer's danuglipron has been removed from the weight loss drug market model, with previous sales forecasts of $1.2 billion and $1.9 billion for 2030 and 2035, respectively [1] - The market share forecast for Eli Lilly's orforglipron has been increased, with adjusted risk-adjusted sales predictions of $1 billion in 2026, $17.2 billion in 2030, and $24.5 billion in 2035 [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs maintains its sales forecast for Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide at $5.3 billion, noting that despite Eli Lilly's expected market advantage, there remains market space for oral semaglutide 25mg due to low likelihood of generic entry and extended price protection until orforglipron's patent expiration [2] - The obesity market is being segmented by BMI and treatment type (oral vs. injectable), with oral medications likely to attract more patients; approximately 50% of patients may prefer oral medications despite lower efficacy compared to injectables [2] - The expected average net price for the first oral drugs (Eli Lilly's orforglipron and Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide 25mg) is around $650, projected to decrease to $457 and $308 by 2030 and 2035, respectively, approaching the pricing of injectable drugs [2]

本文来自彭博终端，终端用户可运行NSN STYJUDT0AFB4 阅读原文。非终端用户可点击文末 "阅读原文" 预约演示。 全球市场版图日新月异，彭博行业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）为您的企业战略助力。在 制药与生物技术领域，无论是全球行业资讯与热点，还是制药管线里程碑及催化剂事件、财务 预测…… BI涵盖广泛且深度的关键信息，旨在为您的决策提供可靠且具有竞争力的洞见支撑。 扫描二维码 立即订阅 彭博生物制药双周报 本期主题： 中国药企瞄准肥胖症领域研发管线引起诺和诺德和默克的关注 (彭博行业研究)——中国药企正寻求解决国内肥胖率不断上升的问题，其中信达生物最有希 望推出可比肩诺和诺德和礼来的高效治疗药物，而恒瑞医药、联邦制药等企业或将进一步提 高疗效标准。中国本土研发管线由GLP- 1类药物主导，已引起诺和诺德和默克等国际巨头的 关注，但要让西方药企保持兴趣，还需要持续创新。 中国可能成为减肥药生产企业的必争之地 数据来源：公司文件、彭博行业研究 恒瑞医药或将提高中国减肥药的疗效标准 恒瑞医药HRS9 5 3 1的一项中期研究显示，该药物可使中国成年人体重减轻1 6 . 7%（经安慰 ...

本文来自彭博终端，终端用户可运行NSN STYJUDT0AFB4 阅读原文。非终端用户可点击文末 "阅读原文" 预约演示。 全球市场版图日新月异，彭博行业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）为您的企业战略助力。在 制药与生物技术领域，无论是全球行业资讯与热点，还是制药管线里程碑及催化剂事件、财务 预测…… BI涵盖广泛且深度的关键信息，旨在为您的决策提供可靠且具有竞争力的洞见支撑。 扫描二维码 立即订阅 彭博生物制药双周报 本期主题： 中国药企瞄准肥胖症领域研发管线引起诺和诺德和默克的关注 (彭博行业研究)——中国药企正寻求解决国内肥胖率不断上升的问题，其中信达生物最有希 望推出可比肩诺和诺德和礼来的高效治疗药物，而恒瑞医药、联邦制药等企业或将进一步提 高疗效标准。中国本土研发管线由GLP- 1类药物主导，已引起诺和诺德和默克等国际巨头的 关注，但要让西方药企保持兴趣，还需要持续创新。 中国可能成为减肥药生产企业的必争之地 我们认为GLP- 1在肥胖症治疗领域处于核心地位，但这类药物竞争激烈且已趋于饱和。看起 来更稀缺的新疗法（如胰淀素）可能是支持与西方药企达成更多长期交易的关键。 减肥药许可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial report of Biopharmaceutical Company Borui Pharmaceutical (688166.SH) indicates a significant decline in performance, with revenue dropping by 26.81% year-on-year to 249 million yuan and net profit plunging by 79.77% to 12.96 million yuan in Q1 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 249 million yuan, a decrease of 26.81% compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell to 12.96 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 79.77% [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities also saw a significant drop of 27.93% to 107 million yuan [1] Group 2: Product Sales and Market Dynamics - Borui Pharmaceutical's core revenue source is product sales, which accounts for over 90% of total revenue, primarily from antiviral, antifungal, immunosuppressive, respiratory, oncology, and metabolic treatment areas [2] - The demand for Oseltamivir, a key antiviral product, surged in 2023 due to a flu outbreak, with sales volume increasing by 759.04% for raw materials and 119.73% for formulations compared to the previous year [2] - However, the demand for Oseltamivir raw materials declined by 35.64% in 2024, leading to a 70.08% drop in antiviral product revenue year-on-year [2] Group 3: Research and Development Focus - Borui Pharmaceutical is shifting its R&D focus towards GLP-1 weight loss drugs, with its BGM0504 injection currently in Phase III clinical trials [1][4] - The investment in BGM0504 has increased from an initial estimate of 20 million yuan to 357 million yuan, now accounting for 47.6% of the total expected investment [5] - The company has also introduced an oral formulation of BGM0504, expanding its product pipeline [5] Group 4: Challenges and Strategic Adjustments - The company reported a significant decline in revenue from its formulation products, which fell by 24.40% year-on-year to 42.78 million yuan in Q1 2025, primarily due to the drop in demand and price for Oseltamivir formulations [3] - Technical revenue, which includes income from technology transfer and support for generic drug registration, plummeted by 97.67% to 373,500 yuan, attributed to a strategic shift in resource allocation [3] - The company faces increasing financial pressure, with a rise in debt levels; the asset-liability ratio increased from 21.62% in 2020 to 50.5% in Q1 2025, indicating a significant challenge in financial management [6]

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the weight loss drug market is intensifying, with Eli Lilly making significant strides to challenge Novo Nordisk's long-standing dominance, although both companies are expected to maintain leading positions in the market [2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance and Competition - Novo Nordisk has been facing increased competition from Eli Lilly, which has been innovating and investing to catch up, but has not yet surpassed Novo Nordisk [2]. - Eli Lilly's next-generation weight loss drug, Orforglipron, has shown promising results in Phase III clinical trials, with an average weight reduction of 7.9%, outperforming some early studies of Novo Nordisk's Ozempic [4]. - Eli Lilly's management emphasizes the advantages of oral drug commercialization, including easier scalability and cost advantages, which could enhance its long-term revenue and profit outlook [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment - Despite a general downward revision of revenue and profit expectations for Eli Lilly, analysts remain optimistic about its growth prospects, contrasting with the sentiment towards Novo Nordisk [7]. - Eli Lilly's ability to scale production in the U.S. is seen as more favorable compared to Novo Nordisk, although potential supply chain disruptions due to trade wars could impact its margins [7]. - The valuation of Eli Lilly is currently high, with an expected EBITDA multiple of 28.5, above its 10-year average of 22.1, indicating that the company must continue to diversify its product line to justify its growth metrics [9]. Group 3: Stock Performance and Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to consider the changing trend of Eli Lilly's stock, which has shown signs of losing momentum after peaking in 2024, with a critical support level at $700 [11]. - Analysts suggest waiting for a potential pullback after recent stock price increases to consider additional investments, while maintaining a bullish outlook based on the successful Phase III results of its weight loss drug [11].

文 | 乔悦 编辑 | 何子维 视觉 | 诺言 "减一斤，赚一百"，听起来像是电影台词，这几天却在北京街头真实上演。 在电影《西虹市首富》中，主人公王多鱼为了散尽家产，推出了一种特殊的脂肪险—"减一公斤赚一千 元"。这种保险引发了全城的减肥热潮，也让主人公最终顺利烧光10亿元。 减一公斤赚一千元/《西虹市首富》剧照 而现实中，"东哥"刘强东化身王多鱼，京东买药上线的减重活动，让剧情照进现实。 4月初，京东健康旗下的即时零售业务——京东买药秒送发起了一项名为"快乐减重"的活动，在全北京25 家京东大药房门店架设称重仪器，向大众发出挑战："一个月内成功减重，每减一斤奖励100元现金。" 若减肥就能赚钱，"我能赚出一套房" "每减一斤奖励100元"就是这样一句简单的活动宣传，让这几天北京不少药店门口都热闹起来，排起了称 重长龙。 根据京东APP的活动规则，用户需要先在线上完成报名，然后在4月7日到4月30日期间，前往北京市内指 定的京东大药房门店称重打卡，期间还要完成若干隐藏任务，最终在4月28日或30日再去称重一次， 如 果减重大于等于5斤以上，用户将有机会获得500至1000元的现金奖励。 京东买药秒送发起"快 ...

文 | 乔悦 编辑 | 何子维 视觉 | 诺言 "减一斤，赚一百"，听起来像是电影台词，这几天却在北京街头真实上演。 在电影《西虹市首富》中，主人公王多鱼为了散尽家产，推出了一种特殊的脂肪险—"减一公斤赚一千 元"。这种保险引发了全城的减肥热潮，也让主人公最终顺利烧光10亿元。 减一公斤赚一千元/《西虹市首富》剧照 而现实中，"东哥"刘强东化身王多鱼，京东买药上线的减重活动，让剧情照进现实。 4月初，京东健康旗下的即时零售业务——京东买药秒送发起了一项名为"快乐减重"的活动，在全北京25 家京东大药房门店架设称重仪器，向大众发出挑战："一个月内成功减重，每减一斤奖励100元现金。" 京东买药秒送发起"快乐减重"的活动/图源：京东秒送 活动一经推出，北京用户的参与热情大大超出了官方预期， 京东相关负责人告诉盐财经，目前已经报名 了几十万人，首次称重的人数超过2万人，不少称重门店前都排起了长队。 这场全民减肥狂欢，究竟是健康意识的觉醒，还是营销的噱头？ 若减肥就能赚钱，"我能赚出一套房" "每减一斤奖励100元"就是这样一句简单的活动宣传，让这几天北京不少药店门口都热闹起来，排起了称 重长龙。 京东"快乐减重"活 ...

[Table_Author] 分析师：王俐媛 执业证书号：S1030524080001 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：wangly1@csco.com.cn 研究助理：徐伊琳 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：xuyl@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 医药生物 G 减肥药 BD 有望加速 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 21 日 [Table_ReportType] 医药生物行业周报（4 月第 3 周） [Table_S 行业ummary 观点：] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_PageHeader] 2025 年 04 月 图表目录 [Table_BaseData] 1) 周度回顾。上周（4 月 14 日-4 月 18 日）医药生物收 跌-0.36%，反弹力度小于 Wind 全 A（0.39%）和沪深 300（0.59%），市场偏好避险板块。从板块来看，贸易 战中波及程度最小的化学制剂（0.62%）、中药（0.6%） 和线下药店（0.19%）小幅收涨，血液制品（-4.39%） ...

暗盘资金流向曝光！提前捕捉庄家建仓信号>> 减肥药概念盘初活跃，金凯生科（301509）涨超10%，昊帆生物（301393）、华东医药（000963）、翰 宇药业（300199）、百花医药（600721）、一品红（300723）、常山药业（300255）等跟涨。消息面 上，礼来口服减肥药Orforglipron三期临床数据亮眼，股价涨逾14%。 ...

以下文章来源于21世纪经济报道 ，作者21记者 21世纪经济报道 . 权威、专业、深度、有趣！用经济思维看世界。 来源：21世纪经济报道 体重管理年减肥新招式频出，也有商家蹭起了热点。 近日，北京日报发布文章《又贵又难吃的羽衣甘蓝被疯抢》，质疑其健康价值，称部分品牌为改善口感添加糖分，可能变成高热量饮品。 热搜持续发酵， 话题#又贵又难吃的羽衣甘蓝被疯抢#一度登上微博热搜第一。 羽衣甘蓝能被包装成减肥利器，是多方合力的结果。羽衣甘蓝原产地位于地中海沿岸，其价值重塑过程始于原料本身的生物特性——这种十字花科植物确 实富含膳食纤维（每100克含量达3.6-4.1克）及维生素K、维生素C等微量元素，这种天然营养结构为后续营销提供了科学背书。 相关公开信息显示，羽衣甘蓝的膳食纤维吸水膨胀后能占据胃部空间，延缓胃排空，从而减少其他高热量食物的摄入，有助于控制体重，为它贴上"健康食 物"标签。 据相关资料显示，混果汁是国内最早将羽衣甘蓝应用于现制饮品的新茶饮品牌，而喜茶在2024年巴黎奥运会期间推出与安踏冠军联名的"夺冠纤体瓶"，也 主打羽衣甘蓝成分。由于市场反响热烈，成功带动了其他品牌跟进，如奈雪的茶、茶百道、沪上阿姨 ...