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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting the ongoing struggle between bullish and bearish sentiments in the market, and poses questions about future movements and strategies for trading during the U.S. market hours [1] Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, raising questions about when this trend will end [1] - There is a notable struggle between buyers and sellers, indicating a lack of clear direction in the market [1] - The article suggests that strategies for trading during the U.S. market hours need to be considered [1]

首先，从现实出发，要把七千五百亿的美债一口气清空，基本上不太可能。美国的国债每天的交易量很 大，成交额可能达到上万亿美元，不过很多都是短期国债，流动性很强，大家买卖起来没有太多顾虑。 但是咱们手里拿的很多是中长期的美债，流动性没那么高，一次性全抛了不现实，市场大概率也接不 住。 朋友们，我们又减持美债了，目前持有的规模创下了十六年来的最低，也就是最近二十五年首次退居全 球第三，排在了日本和英国的后面。 经过三月和四月连续两月减持美债之后，我们手里的美债大概是七千五百亿美元。有人说美债发行太多 了，快要兜不住了，美国出现信任危机，为什么还要持有美债，而不是把手里的美债一次性全部清空？ 不划算的买卖我们不会做，不如拿在手里，作为和美国博弈的有利筹码。像这次特朗普加关税，咱们就 能通过抛售美债来敲打美国，给特朗普压力，也向其他国家释放信号，带头减少对美元的依赖。 这里面还有一个非常微妙的点，未来两年，美国的国债处于非常紧张的阶段。未来两年会有大量的美债 到期，只有发新债，才能够还旧债。这个时候如果抛售美债的话，对美国发新债的利率和已发出来的美 债的价格影响是非常大的。 换句话来讲，现在这个时机不是最好的，到那个时候 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 国债期货周报 期债震荡调整，静待政策破局 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 关 注 我 们 获取更多资讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管： 1、中央财经委员会召开第六次会议，会议强调纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价 无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。2、证监会党委召开扩大会议强调，要持续优化股债融资、并购重组等资本 市场机制安排，促进要素向最有潜力的领域高效集聚。牢记我国资本市场中小投资者众多的最大市情，不断完善投资者保护制度体系。 3、财政部等三部门发布关于境外投资者以分配利润直接投资税收抵免政策的公告。境外投资者以中国境内居民企业分配的利润，在2025 年1月1日至2028年12月31日期间用于境内直接投资符合条件的，可按照投资额的10%抵免境外投资者当年的应纳税额。 基本面：1、国内:1）6月份中国制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.7%、50.5%和 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing pressure from multiple fronts, including public criticism from President Trump and unusual signals from Fed officials suggesting potential interest rate cuts [3][6] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is being undermined by political influences, particularly through the weakening of the Labor Statistics Bureau, which affects the reliability of inflation data [3][4] - The current political environment is shifting the focus of monetary policy from economic indicators to trade policies, as indicated by the Treasury Secretary's comments [6][8] Group 2 - The credibility of U.S. inflation data is in question, with nearly one-third of CPI data derived from estimates, leading to potential misguidance in monetary policy [4][6] - The Federal Reserve's role in stabilizing the dollar and the global financial order is at risk due to the U.S. government's fiscal tightening and its impact on statistical capabilities [4] - The ongoing political battle is reshaping the Federal Reserve's identity and operational independence, with implications for its future role in economic management [8]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Musk and Trump centers around the "Big and Beautiful Act," which has passed a procedural vote and is close to becoming law, with Musk vehemently opposing it and threatening to form a new political party if it passes [1][3][5]. Group 1: Legislative Developments - The "Big and Beautiful Act" passed with a narrow margin of 51 votes in favor and 49 against, moving closer to becoming law [3]. - The act includes significant budget cuts, such as a $4 trillion tax reduction over the next decade, while also raising the estate and gift tax exemption limits [5][7]. - The act's passage is expected to exacerbate the already dire fiscal situation in the U.S., with potential debt growth exceeding initial estimates [7][8]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The act is projected to cut nearly $1 trillion from Medicaid, making it harder for low-income families to access healthcare [7]. - Food assistance program age limits have been raised, increasing food insecurity among low-income groups [7]. - The act plans to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, adding to the current national debt of over $37 trillion, with annual interest payments already exceeding $1.3 trillion [8]. Group 3: Musk's Position and Actions - Musk has previously advocated for government spending cuts and has implemented measures that saved approximately $130 billion in federal spending during his tenure [11]. - His opposition to the "Big and Beautiful Act" stems from a belief that it will lead the country deeper into debt, contradicting his earlier efforts to streamline government expenditures [10][11]. - Musk's warnings about the U.S. nearing bankruptcy highlight his concerns regarding the fiscal direction of the country under current policies [10]. Group 4: Trump and Federal Reserve Dynamics - Trump has publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates, claiming that timely action could save the U.S. trillions in interest payments [13][15]. - The ongoing tension between Trump and the Federal Reserve reflects a broader struggle over economic policy, with Trump pushing for lower rates while Powell maintains an independent stance based on economic data [15][18]. - The situation illustrates a complex interplay between legislative actions and monetary policy, with potential implications for the U.S. economy moving forward [18].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-04 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，短期缺乏新指引和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡 等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升，美豆 带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度，短期 回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2810（华东），基差-148，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存69.16万吨，上周50.89万吨，环比增加35.9%，去年同期105.3万吨， 同比减少34.32%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 ...

Group 1 - A rising anti-China sentiment is emerging globally, closely linked to the United States, as seen in Fiji's Prime Minister's statements and the tense strategic dialogue between China and Europe [1][3] - Fiji's Prime Minister Rabuka explicitly stated that China is not welcome to establish military bases in the South Pacific, indicating a shift in regional dynamics influenced by a new defense cooperation agreement with the U.S. [1] - The recent "tiered tariff agreement" between Vietnam and the U.S. highlights China's precarious position in global economic competition, as it aims to limit Chinese companies' ability to circumvent tariffs through third-party countries [3] Group 2 - The tense relationship between China and Europe is exemplified by the ultimatum given to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during a high-level strategic dialogue, reflecting U.S. pressure on the EU to choose sides [3] - Vietnam's agreement to impose high tariffs on goods exported to the U.S. demonstrates its difficult position between China and the U.S., sacrificing potential economic benefits from China for U.S. favor [3] - China's government has expressed strong opposition to any agreements that harm its interests, signaling potential countermeasures against Vietnam's recent tariff agreement [5] Group 3 - The ongoing trade friction between China and the U.S. is expected to intensify, particularly in the context of a sluggish global economic recovery, with uncertain strategies from other countries under U.S. pressure [7] - The situation with Vietnam serves as a cautionary tale for other nations, emphasizing that one country's interests should not come at the expense of another's [7] - Strengthening multilateral cooperation and promoting fairness and justice are seen as essential to countering U.S. hegemony and achieving global economic stability [7]

中新社北京7月3日电 (李京泽 周昕)第十三届世界和平论坛7月3日在北京开幕。中共中央对外联络 部部长刘建超在论坛上发表午餐演讲并回答提问。他指出，美国所谓"以实力促和平"的说法是霸权思维 的新化身。 今年是中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年，中方将隆重举行纪念活动。刘建超透 露，中联部也会邀请一些政党的领导人来华出席相关纪念活动。在他看来，中方举行纪念活动为国际社 会探索如何构建有效、长期的全球安全架构，切实保障世界和平提供了机遇。 刘建超认为，战后80年来，亚洲逐步走向和平稳定、发展繁荣，得益于亚洲国家有着自己的价值观 以及解决问题的方式。"我们更相信对话协商，不相信武力。武力解决只是暂时的解决，协商解决才是 长期的解决。" "在这样的理念推动下，'修昔底德陷阱'必然是大国的宿命，而中小国家很难独善其身，常常面临 被霸权逼迫选边站队，沦为大国争霸的牺牲品。"刘建超说。 他认为，在战争形态发生根本性改变的今天，如果仍然执迷于零和博弈、绝对安全，甚至不惜将人 工智能等创新成果应用到战争手段之中，可能导致世界人民面临共同的毁灭，这将是人类文明无法承受 的代价。 前不久，第22届香格里拉对话会在新加坡 ...

Core Insights - Chongqing Beer has been recognized as the only liquor brand from Chongqing in the first batch of "Chinese Consumer Famous Brands" selected by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in April this year [2] - Despite a 30% decline in beer production over the past decade and a mere 32% consumption share among Generation Z, Chongqing Beer managed to achieve a 1.93% increase in sales in Q1 2025, positioning itself among China's top five beer companies [2][5] - The company has a rich history, being one of the first beer manufacturers in New China, and has successfully launched high-end products like Chongqing Pure Draft since 2002 [3] Industry Context - The Chinese beer industry has entered a painful transformation phase, with a 30.1% decline in production from its peak in 2013 and a 5.7% decrease in industry revenue in 2024, making it the only declining category in the food and beverage sector [5] - The industry is now in a "stock game" phase, focusing on brand competition rather than volume expansion, prompting Chongqing Beer to target younger consumers while maintaining its brand heritage [5] Marketing Strategies - Chongqing Beer has engaged in innovative marketing strategies to resonate with younger audiences, such as hosting a symphonic concert that attracted nearly 2.9 million online viewers, blending classical and local music [6] - The company organized a dragon boat race event that incorporated interactive elements and social media engagement to appeal to younger demographics, successfully revitalizing traditional activities [7] - A vertical marathon event at the deepest subway station in the country was branded as "Chongqing Pure Draft Ascend Race," connecting with young people's aspirations and urban experiences [8][9] Brand Representation - The brand's approach to endorsements has evolved, recently featuring Hong Kong star Chen Xiaochun as a spokesperson, aligning with the brand's image of camaraderie and resonating with local culture [9] - The inclusion of diverse brand ambassadors, such as Sichuan singer Jike Junyi, aims to reach various regional preferences and interest groups [9]