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推动服务消费升级!毕马威徐司辞:应把握情绪健康等需求
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-06-28 03:23
Core Insights - The event "Intelligent Consumption, Trendsetting Future" highlighted the recovery and structural transformation of the consumer market in China, emphasizing the importance of capital empowerment and policy support [2][3]. Economic Recovery - In 2024, China's economy is expected to recover steadily, with significant growth in per capita disposable income and total retail sales of consumer goods compared to 2023, indicating the resilience and potential of the domestic consumer market [3][5]. Consumer Market Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in the first two months of 2025 increased by 4% year-on-year, surpassing the 3.5% growth rate of 2024 by 0.5 percentage points [5]. - The term "consumption" appeared 52% more frequently in government reports compared to the previous year, reflecting heightened governmental focus on consumption [6]. Structural Adjustments - The consumer market is undergoing deep structural adjustments driven by macroeconomic uncertainties, demographic changes, and evolving consumer attitudes, leading to more diversified consumer demands [6]. - Key dimensions of consumer demand include emotional value, health management, environmental sustainability, quality enhancement, and cost-effectiveness [6]. Regional Insights - In Guangdong, the coverage rate of immersive consumption scenarios is 30%, indicating significant development potential, while emerging sectors in service consumption account for 22% [6][10]. IPO Market Activity - In Q1 2025, global IPO activities reached $28.2 billion, with the consumer goods market accounting for 45% of the fundraising, highlighting strong investor interest in this sector [6]. Luxury Goods Market - China, the US, and Japan remain the top three luxury goods markets, collectively accounting for 48% of global luxury consumption, with a total market size of $101.7 billion, $96.4 billion, and $28.3 billion respectively [7]. Cosmetics and Health Trends - The cosmetics market is highly competitive, with domestic brands performing well, particularly eco-friendly skincare products favored by consumers seeking natural ingredients [7]. - The functional food market in China has grown significantly, from under 100 billion yuan in 2013 to nearly 300 billion yuan in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 12% [7]. Dining and Tourism Integration - There is a trend of integration between dining and tourism, with consumers increasingly demanding high-quality food, creative dishes, and engaging dining experiences, which is driving new business models and enhancing service consumption [9]. Policy Initiatives in Guangdong - Guangdong's policy framework for promoting high-quality service consumption focuses on four dimensions: expanding basic consumption, enhancing quality in cultural tourism and health services, enabling digital and green scenarios, and deepening financial integration [10]. - The aim is to increase the proportion of service consumption in total retail sales and cultivate competitive service brands nationally [10].
这类芯片,寒冬已过?
半导体行业观察· 2025-06-28 02:21
公众号记得加星标⭐️,第一时间看推送不会错过。 去年摩根士丹利发布的《寒冬将至》报告曾为半导体行业浇下一盆冷水。然而,2025年上半年以来, 全 球 芯 片 市 场 正 悄 然 释 放 出 复 苏 信 号 。 尤 其 是 内 存 芯 片 领 域 , 从 通 用 DRAM 到 高 带 宽 内 存 (HBM),市场价格回升、库存去化、订单恢复,似乎正在书写"春天将至"的新篇章。 信号一:韩国通用DRAM出口激增 韩国作为全球DRAM产业的核心基地,其出口数据是观察行业周期的风向标。自今年2月起,韩国 DRAM出口额结束此前的同比下滑态势,连续四个月实现两位数增长:3月增长27.8%,4月增长 38%,5月增长36%,6月前20天增长25.5%。 (来源:Daeun Lee) 这些数据与"半导体寒冬"的主流叙事背道而驰。相反,它们表明,通用DRAM市场(主要应用于PC 和基础服务器)正快速形成供需紧张格局。据韩国KED Aicel数据显示,6月前20天,韩国DRAM出 口额为2.69万亿韩元(约19亿美元),同比增长25.5%。需注意的是,这一数据不包括如HBM等更 复杂的多芯片封装产品。 TrendForce 指 ...
总结与展望 | 城市:上半年新房成交规模同比持平,二手成交动能放缓(2025H1)
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-28 01:42
Core Viewpoint - The overall real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and weak recovery in Q2 2025, with new home supply and demand both increasing month-on-month but decreasing year-on-year, indicating significant supply constraints [1][2][6]. Supply - In Q2 2025, new home supply increased month-on-month but decreased by 20% year-on-year, with significant supply constraints remaining [2][6]. - Only first-tier cities saw a notable increase in supply, while second and third-tier cities continued to experience low supply levels, with the largest declines in the latter [4][6]. - The supply situation varied by city, with hotspots like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Hangzhou experiencing increased supply, while weaker second and third-tier cities like Foshan and Huizhou saw significant declines [6][7]. Transaction Volume - The real estate market showed a weak recovery in Q2 2025, with a slight month-on-month increase in new home transactions, but a year-on-year decline [7][10]. - First-tier cities maintained strong transaction volumes, with cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showing positive year-on-year growth, while second and third-tier cities experienced mixed results [10][11]. - Overall, the transaction volume is expected to decline in Q3 compared to Q2, but the year-on-year decline may narrow due to last year's low base [27]. Second-hand Transactions - In Q2 2025, second-hand home transactions remained high but showed a downward trend month-on-month, with cities like Shenzhen and Xi'an experiencing significant year-on-year growth [11][14]. - Some third-tier cities also saw substantial growth due to low base effects from the previous year, while others remained in a correction phase [14][15]. Housing Prices - New home prices in 70 cities showed a narrowing year-on-year decline, with first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen maintaining high prices, while third-tier cities experienced steady price corrections [15][16]. - The price dynamics are influenced by the introduction of high-quality new properties, which have stabilized and slightly increased prices in certain markets [15][16]. Inventory - As of May 2025, the inventory of new homes was 463 million square meters, showing a downward trend due to supply constraints and stable transaction volumes [18][21]. - The inventory turnover period is stabilizing at around 25 months, with first-tier cities showing a significant decrease in inventory risks [21][23]. Outlook - The supply is expected to decline in Q3 2025, with first-tier cities remaining the focus for new launches due to strong demand [25][26]. - The overall market is anticipated to continue its weak recovery, with significant differentiation between core first and second-tier cities and weaker third-tier cities [27].
ETF总规模目前再度创出历史新高
news flash· 2025-06-27 18:44
Core Viewpoint - The total scale of ETFs has reached a historical high, indicating strong demand for core assets in the A-share market and reflecting confidence in China's economic recovery [1] Group 1: ETF Market Performance - As of June 27, the total scale of ETFs approached 4.3 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase since early April when it stabilized at 4 trillion yuan [1] - The scale of stock ETFs has officially surpassed 3 trillion yuan, highlighting a growing trend in this segment [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The continuous increase in stock ETF scale suggests enhanced demand for core asset allocation in the A-share market [1] - The growth in ETF scale is seen as a deeper reflection of market confidence in the recovery of the Chinese economy [1]
[6月27日]指数估值数据(港股医药回低估了么;港股估值表更新;抽奖福利)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-06-27 13:59
今天大盘整体波动不大,截止到收盘,还在4.9星。 沪深300等大盘股微跌,中证500、中证1000等微涨。 前几天强势上涨的银行指数,今天下跌较多,拖累了大盘股。 消费行业也下跌。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 (转载请注明出处) 科技、医药整体上涨。 港股波动不大。 港股科技指数略微上涨。 1. 有朋友问,前段时间港股医药涨幅比较高,到了正常估值。 最近港股医药回调。 港股的医药指数有哪些?最近港股医药回到低估了么? 医药是11个一级行业之一。 在医药行业下,有三个比较常见的子行业:医疗、生物科技、创新药。 其实还有其他子行业(例如中医药),只是这三个的基金数量多。 医疗行业, 主要是由医疗服务和医疗器械等构成。 例如,我们平时看的眼科、牙科医院,就是医疗服务;而心脏起搏器、呼吸机、注射器等属于医疗器械。 医疗行业,是目前基金数量非常多的医药子行业,指数基金和主动基金都有不少。 生物科技, 主要是投资四个领域的公司:基因诊断、生物制药、血液制品、人体生物科技。包括疫苗,也在其中。 这个指数长期收益也不错,跟医疗是同一档次的。 本身也有科技属性。像很多科技主题基金中,也有生物科技的公司。 例如港股科技指数,除了互联网, ...
股指日报:股指冲高后回落,上方存在压力-20250627
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 13:00
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 股指冲高后回落,上方存在压力 股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年6月27日 王梦颖(Z0015429)、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 市场回顾 今日股指涨跌不一,大盘股指收跌,中小盘股指收涨。从资金面来看,两市成交额减少420.50亿元。期指方 面,IF、IH放量下跌,IC、IM放量上涨。 重要资讯 1. 国家发改委举行新闻发布会介绍,将在7月下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金。 2. 国家统计局公布数据显示,5月份全国规模以上工业企业利润同比下降9.1%,1-5月份下降1.1%。 核心观点 今日股指开盘冲高后回落,可见上方存在不小压力。当下消息面较平淡,且国内经济处于弱复苏状态,股指 缺乏足够的利好驱动,预计难以突破压力线形成上行趋势。同时最新公布的规模以上工业企业利润同比转 负,一方面受关税及价格因素影响,另一方面也显示出当前有效需求不足,部分经济数据疲软的情况下托底 政策预期有所升温,对股指形成支撑。短期预计股指区间震荡为主,重点关注7月政治局会议的政策指引。 策略推荐 持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 两市融资买入额/两市成交额 source: 同花顺, ...
杭州土拍一日揽金151亿元 多宗地块溢价超过50%
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-06-27 11:20
Group 1 - The land auction in Hangzhou on June 27 saw a total transaction value of 151.15 billion yuan, with three plots sold at a premium of over 50% [1] - A total of six residential plots were auctioned, covering an area of 267 acres, with a starting price of 115.9 billion yuan, and all plots were sold at a premium [1] - The core plot in Qianjiang Century City attracted significant attention, sold for 55.78 billion yuan, achieving a floor price of 54,500 yuan per square meter, setting a new record for the area [1] Group 2 - The highest premium was recorded for the Shushan unit XS150201-42 plot, sold for 11.03 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 67.6% [2] - The Binhai Group also acquired another plot for 32.65 billion yuan, with a floor price of 38,600 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 25.34% [2] - The Future Technology City plot was sold for 33.29 billion yuan, with a floor price of 30,100 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 32.14% [2] Group 3 - In May, new home prices in Hangzhou increased by 0.8% month-on-month and year-on-year, ranking first in the country [3] - The second-hand housing market in Hangzhou has shown significant fluctuations, with a peak in March at over 12,000 transactions, but a decline in subsequent months due to external factors [4] - The second-hand market saw a drop to around 9,500 transactions in April and further down to 7,700 in May, with a continued downward trend expected in June [4]
北京市银行业协会:多家银行已完成内部系统调整与定价重检,新发放汽车贷款利率较此前普遍呈现下降趋势
news flash· 2025-06-27 10:59
Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Self-Regulatory Agreement for Automotive Consumer Finance Business in Beijing" aims to lower financing costs for consumers and stimulate the automotive consumption market, aligning with national policies to promote consumption [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Services and Consumer Impact - The banking sector in Beijing is actively responding to the self-regulatory agreement by reducing interest rates on personal auto loans and credit card installment products, thereby alleviating the financial burden on consumers [1][2]. - This initiative is expected to enhance consumer confidence and purchasing experience by providing transparent financial services and addressing concerns about predatory lending practices [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Direction and Future Outlook - The self-regulatory action signifies a shift from price competition to service and efficiency competition within the automotive consumer finance sector, promoting a healthier market environment [1][2]. - Banks are adjusting their pricing strategies and improving risk management and operational efficiency to pass on cost savings to consumers, reinforcing the industry's commitment to serving the real economy and enhancing consumer welfare [2].
中国东航第11架C919客机入列 将投入暑运
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-06-27 10:25
6月27日,东航从中国商飞公司接收编号为B-658U的新一架C919客机,飞机当日午间从上海浦东机场飞 抵上海虹桥机场,入列东航机队。(东航供图) 中新社北京6月27日电 (记者 刘文文)随着暑运旺季临近,中国民航市场出行热度持续攀升。记者27日从 中国东方航空获悉,暑期东航计划执行客运航线1150余条,日均执行航班超3200班,同比增长5%。东 航运营的11架C919客机,都将于今年暑期投入商业运行。 27日,东航从中国商飞公司接收编号为B-658U的新一架C919客机,飞机当日午间从上海浦东机场飞抵 上海虹桥机场,入列东航机队。至此,东航运营的C919客机数量达到11架,并且都将于今年暑期投入 商业运行。 后续,东航还将计划新开烟台至东京、上海至松山、上海至阿拉木图、南京至巴黎、上海至熊本、上海 至哥本哈根等航线,并将进一步加密上海至悉尼、布里斯班、墨尔本等航线和国内多个城市飞往东京、 大阪、札幌、长崎、普吉岛、马累、新加坡、胡志明市等热门旅游目的地的航班。届时,东航新开、加 密、改造国际及地区航线将达210条,每周计划执行的国际及地区航班量超300班。(完) 今年暑运旺季期间,受旅客出行意愿增长、出入境 ...
情绪过热,股指调整
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 05:11
FICC日报 | 2025-06-27 情绪过热,股指调整 市场分析 美国经济下滑。国内方面,国家发改委举行新闻发布会介绍,将在7月下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金。随着 存量政策加快落地见效,新的储备政策陆续出台实施,有信心、有能力把外部冲击的不确定性和不利影响降到最 低,推动经济持续健康发展。海外方面,美国第一季度实际GDP终值年化环比下降0.5%,降幅高于预期的下降0.2%, 三年来首次出现萎缩。5月耐用品订单初值环比增长16.4%,创2014年7月以来最大增幅,远超预期值8.5%,前值为 下降6.6%。 指数调整。现货市场,A股三大指数震荡走低,上证指数跌0.22%收于3448.45点,创业板指跌0.66%。行业方面, 板块指数跌多涨少,多家银行股创新高,银行、通信、国防军工行业涨幅居前,汽车、非银金融、医药生物、美 容护理行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成交金额保持在1.6万亿元。海外市场,最新经济数据显著提振了市场对美联 储年内至少两次降息的预期,受此推动,美国三大股指集体上扬,标普、纳指双双逼近历史高点。 期指活跃度下降。期货市场,基差方面,IM基差延续小幅修复。成交持仓方面,IF、IC、IM的成交量 ...