报 告 正 文 5 月我国出口同比增速录得 4.8% ，在基数走高的情况下，仅较 4 月回落 3.3 个百分点，且贸易顺差继续扩 大。出口增速仍然运行在中高区间，指向其韧性犹存。从 量价拆分 来看， 数量拉动走弱，价格拖累收窄 。从 地区和品类 来看，对周边东南亚国家表现更好，对应抢转口的集成电路和汽车，欧洲振兴带动对欧出口上 行。 本月出口表现如何？ 我们认为 出口有所回落，但表现不差 ，韧性主要来自抢转口以及对等关税的阶段性 缓和。 一方面 ， 去年同期高基数及 5 月上旬的天量对等关税，压制出口回落，对美直接出口仍在下行探底。 另一方面 ， 中下旬对等关税阶段性缓和，同时对东盟等转口国出口仍在高位，指向抢转口及美国抢进口规模 不小，叠加欧洲复兴等对出口形成一定支撑。 出口后续怎么看？ 一方面， 对等关税缓征还有一个月到期，考虑到美国经济仍在回落及稀土反制初见成效， 后续美或选择继续推迟。此外，抢出口和抢转口已经持续数月，需跟踪高频指标观察二者回落拐点。 另一方 面， 欧洲复兴叠加中欧经贸关系改善，其对中国出口将带来不小增量。此外，市场预期下半年美联储降息两 次，全球宽松仍将助力外需回暖 。 出口增速有所 ...

Group 1: Economic Performance - As of May 31, 2025, the "old-for-new" program has driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers[5] - The estimated fiscal funding of 139.2 billion yuan represents 42% of the progress towards the target, closely aligning with the scheduled progress of 5/12[5] - The retail sales growth for April was 5.1%, down from 5.9% in March, but still better than the previous year's performance[9] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The "old-for-new" program has reached 12.4% of the population with 175 million subsidies issued, indicating significant coverage and potential for future growth[5] - The demand for building and decoration materials improved in April, with a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, the highest since December 2021[9] - The retail sales of gold and jewelry surged to a year-on-year increase of 25.3% in April, reflecting strong consumer interest driven by rising gold prices[9] Group 3: Investment and Financing - The total social financing scale increased by 11.59 billion yuan in April, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%[12] - Government bond issuance maintained a rapid pace, with new issuance of 972.9 billion yuan in April, significantly higher than the previous year[13] - Corporate loans decreased by 250 billion yuan year-on-year in April, while corporate bonds saw an increase of 633 billion yuan, indicating a shift in financing methods[13] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Fluctuations in Trump's tariff policies continue to impact market risk appetite, contributing to uncertainty in trade relations[5] - The restructuring of the industrial chain due to tariffs poses risks of global growth slowdown and overcapacity[5]

5 月出口：贸易放缓的三个信号 2025 年 06 月 09 日 2025 年 5 月外贸数据点评 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：张云杰 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525020002 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyunjie@mszq.com ➢ 事件：6 月 9 日，中国海关总署公布 5 月外贸数据。按美元计，5 月出口金 额同比 4.8%、预期 6.2%、前值 8.1%；进口金额同比-3.4%、预期 0.3%、前值 -0.2%。 ➢ 5 月外贸数据呈现出三个放缓信号：一是前期美国"抢进口"导致部分需求 前置，其进口动能自 5 月以来明显下滑。但需要注意的是，尽管 5 月我国对美出 口的拖累幅度进一步扩大，关税"降级"对于中美贸易的提振作用，尚未充分体 现在当月数据之中。二是随着美国方面的终端需求放缓，东盟、拉美等地区的"抢 转口"支撑动能也开始减弱，这尤其体现在我国对东盟、拉美出口同比的边际回 落。三是进口同比再度转负，与内需修复仍需巩固的现状相互对应。具体来看： ➢ 一是前期美国"抢进口"导致部分需求前置，其进口动能自 ...

中美经贸高层会谈之后，外贸增速明显加快。 关税因素扰动之下，我国外贸仍然表现出较强的韧性。 东方金诚宏观研究发展部执行总监冯琳认为，5月出口保持正增长，继续展现出较强的韧性，背后的拉 动力主要有三个：5月中美发布联合声明，关税战降温"；在美国全球"对等关税"暂缓期内，我国出口企 业面向美国之外市场的"抢出口"效应仍在发酵；出口市场多元化取得进展。 今年以来，中国出口目的地更多转向非美国地区的调整仍在持续。 海关数据显示，前5个月，东盟作为我国第一大贸易伙伴，双边贸易总值为3.02万亿元，增长9.1%，占 全国外贸总值的16.8%。其中，对东盟出口1.9万亿元，增长13.5%；自东盟进口1.12万亿元，增长 2.3%。欧盟作为第二大贸易伙伴，双边贸易总值为2.3万亿元，增长2.9%，占12.8%。其中，对欧盟出口 增长7.7%，自欧盟进口下降6.1%。同期，我国对共建"一带一路"国家合计进出口9.24万亿元，增长 4.2%。其中，出口增长10.4%，进口下降3.2%。 与此同时，美国作为我国第三大贸易伙伴，前5个月双边贸易总值为1.72万亿元，下降8.1%，占9.6%。 其中，对美国出口下降8.7%，自美国进口 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's goods trade imports and exports maintained a growth trend, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5% in the first five months of 2025, reflecting resilience amid external pressures [2][3][17]. Trade Performance - The total value of China's goods trade in the first five months reached 17.94 trillion yuan, with May's imports and exports amounting to 3.81 trillion yuan, a growth of 2.7% [3][20]. - In May, exports were 2.28 trillion yuan, showing a growth of 6.3%, with significant increases in exports to ASEAN (16.9%), EU (13.7%), Africa (35.3%), and Central Asia (8.8%) [5][20]. Sector Analysis - Equipment manufacturing products exported in the first five months totaled 6.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 58.3% of total exports. Notable growth was seen in electric vehicles (19%), construction machinery (10.7%), ships (18.9%), and industrial robots (55.4%) [10]. - The central region's imports and exports grew by 11.1% in the first five months, significantly outpacing the national average by 8.6 percentage points, with a total of 1.5 trillion yuan [12][14]. Foreign Trade Dynamics - Foreign-funded enterprises' imports and exports reached 5.21 trillion yuan in the first five months, making up nearly 30% of the total trade value [21][23]. - The number of foreign-funded enterprises with import and export performance exceeded 73,000, marking a five-year high for the same period, indicating China's commitment to high-level opening-up [26]. Government Initiatives - The government is actively responding to the complex foreign trade environment through institutional innovation, customs facilitation, and market expansion, including a five-month cross-border trade facilitation initiative involving 20 departments [30]. - Local governments are implementing tailored measures, such as Guangdong's "Yue Trade Global" and Sichuan's "Chuan Xing Tian Xia," to complement national policies and foster a vibrant foreign trade atmosphere [31].

Group 1 - Guangzhou Nansha Port serves as a crucial hub for global trade in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, facilitating efficient operations with a seamless connection for cargo from 19 waterway terminals [1] - The "One Port Connection" model allows for direct transfer of goods to international vessels without the need for re-declaration and inspection, significantly reducing logistics time from 5-7 days to 1-2 days and saving approximately 300 yuan per container for foreign trade enterprises [1] - The model has expanded its reach to inland provinces such as Guizhou and Hunan, enabling efficient rail-sea intermodal transport, with goods like refrigerators reaching Nansha Port in just one day [2] Group 2 - The Greater Bay Area has seen a remarkable increase in foreign trade, with a total import and export value of 2.85 trillion yuan in the first four months of the year, marking a historical high for the same period [3] - The export structure is continuously optimizing towards high-end, intelligent, and green transformation, supported by robust manufacturing and technological innovation [3] - The export of industrial robots from the Greater Bay Area's nine cities increased by 56.4% year-on-year in the first four months, attributed to improved customs processes that enhance delivery speed and competitiveness [3] Group 3 - The unique geographical location, favorable policy environment, and rich technological innovation resources of the Greater Bay Area are driving foreign trade towards new directions, expanding business networks and increasing market activity [4]

张付哲 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 交通运输 | 航运港口 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 09 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 06 | 月 | 日 | | 06 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | 9.80 | | | | | | 一 年 内 / 最 低 | | | | 10.93/6.82 | | 高 | | 最 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Yangtze River Delta region achieved a record high in import and export value, totaling 5.29 trillion yuan in the first four months, indicating robust growth in new trade formats and high-end equipment sectors [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - The total import and export value of the Yangtze River Delta region reached 5.29 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - The growth is supported by the flourishing development of new trade formats such as cross-border e-commerce and market procurement [1] Group 2: Sectoral Contributions - High-end equipment sectors, represented by shipbuilding and machine tools, demonstrated strong development momentum [1] - The performance of these sectors contributes significantly to the region's goal of enhancing new productive forces and promoting high-quality foreign trade development [1]

前2个月进出口同比下降1.2%，降幅收窄。 进入3月，增速由负转正，一季度进出口同比微增了1.3%。 今天公布的外贸数据表明，中国外贸在复杂环境中稳健前行。 今年前5个月，我国货物贸易进出口实现了2.5%的增长。前5个月外贸运行还有哪些特点和亮点？透过 海关发布的最新数据，我们还能获取哪些信息？来看记者的观察。 01 我国外贸累计增速逐月回升 总台央视记者叶奂在海关总署了解到，今天公布的外贸数据表明，中国外贸在复杂环境中稳健前行。为 什么这么说，我们可以回看一下今年以来的月度外贸数据： 1月份进出口同比下降2.2%。 这一系列数字背后，是中国外贸在外部不确定性中展现出的强大韧性和调整能力。5月，广交会、中国- 中东欧国家博览会、西部国际博览会等多场高规格国际性会展接连举办，参展企业数量、意向成交额等 多项指标频频刷新纪录，助推我国外贸稳健增长。 4月，尽管面临美国关税政策带来的不确定性，但是前4个月我国外贸整体增速达到了2.4%，依然保持 了积极的增长态势。 需要特别说明的是，今年5月因为有假期，比4月还少了3个工作日。另外，大家非常关注的中美经贸高 层会谈，相关会谈成果是在5月14日，也就是5月中旬起正式生 ...

具体而言，商品结构上保留一二线品牌和民生商品，融入地标品牌，引入时尚类商品丰富选择，扩大熟食和 烘焙加工区；服务上取消强制动线，增设便民服务区；员工的薪资福利也提升了不少，盈利门店员工都能参 与分红。 昨天，顾客在位于石景山区喜隆多购物中心二层的永辉超市选购商品。 本报记者 吴镝摄 "找工作时对比了3家超市，最后选择了这里，基本工资就挺高，月底还有分红，上个月拿到手9000多元 呢。"超市"00后"裱花师从老家来北京后就扎进这家超市，"在这工作挺好的。"她笑着说。 多项人性化设计也融入超市的各个角落，一些看似微小的改变，都显示出用心。记者注意到，生鲜区的连卷 袋旁加装了湿手器，顾客可以轻松撕开塑料袋；收银台备着放大镜，方便老年朋友清晰查看商品信息。超市 还有各种免费便民设施，共享充电宝可以免费使用半小时，超市出口处还有洗手池和免费的直饮水机。 去年10月19日，完成调改后的超市正式恢复营业，开业首日营业额达170万元，进店客流量近5万人次，结账 支付1.4万人次，客流、销售均迎来"开门红"。开业至今，日均销售额是调改前的近3倍，日均客流量同比增 长65%以上，超市变得更好逛，复购率和新顾客到店比例持续提升。 ...