美指100.10-20区间多，防守5美金，目标101-101.80 宏观面 近期黄金市场波动剧烈，从历史高位显著回调，引发市场热议。其价格下跌主要受两大因素驱动：一是全球贸易紧张局势缓和，中美大幅降低关税并暂停部 分关税 90 天，极大提振市场风险偏好，投资者纷纷撤离避险资产，黄金需求下降；二是美元指数探底回升，周三美元指数上涨 0.08%，美国国债收益率也 创下六周新高，10 年期国债收益率突破 4.5%，美联储降息预期调整，使得黄金这类无息资产吸引力下降。不过，地缘政治风险并未完全消散，美欧贸易谈 判进展缓慢，未来或重新提振黄金避险需求。短期来看，贸易乐观情绪和美元走强或继续压制金价；但中长期，地缘政治不确定性、通胀压力及央行购金需 求将为金价提供支撑。投资者需密切关注贸易谈判、美国经济数据、美联储政策等因素，把握黄金市场波动中的投资机会。 美元指数 在美元指数的表现上，周三美元指数呈现出探底回升态势。当日美元指数价格最高攀升至101.117的位置，最低则下探至100.242，最终以 101.046的价格收 盘。回顾周三市场表现，在早盘期间价格短线震荡运行，随后正如笔者所言价格进一步下跌，对于欧盘前价格接 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend due to improved global trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, which has boosted market risk appetite [1][3][5] - Gold prices opened lower this week, with a significant drop of 50 points, and are currently trading below key resistance levels, indicating a bearish market sentiment [3][5] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking by investors after previous gains, alongside negative technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signaling bearish momentum [1][3][5] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that if gold prices break below the support level of 3200, further declines could occur, potentially targeting the 2909 level [3][5] - The market is currently in a corrective phase, with the previous bullish trend line broken, leading to increased downward pressure on gold prices [3][5][7] - The articles emphasize the importance of monitoring upcoming economic data, such as the US PPI and retail sales, which could influence market sentiment and gold prices [1][3]

风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/15 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/5/14 | 美元/桶 | 63.15 | 63.67 | -0.82% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/5/14 | 美元/桶 | 66.09 | 66.63 | -0.81% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/13 | 美元/吨 | 575.50 | 569.00 | 1.14% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/5/14 | | 美元/吨 | 731.50 | 709.50 | 3.10% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/14 | 美元/吨 | 870.00 | ...

| | | 日度策略参考 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 品神 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | 周济 | 4月以来,在国家政策、中央汇金资金的托底作用下,股指已收复 4月2日关税冲击形成的技术缺口,当前追涨风险收益比不高。持 | | | | | 有的多头可考虑冲高减仓。 | | | 国债 | 黑汤 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 宏观金融 | | | 空间。 | | | 真金 | 農汤 | 短期市场风险偏好回暖,金价或进入盘整;但中长期上涨逻辑尚 未改变。 | | | | | 整体跟随黄金,但关税超预期结果将利好白银商品属性,因此短 | | | 日银 | 震荡 | 期银价韧性或强于黄金。 | | | 同G座 | 農汤 | 中美贸易谈判结果超预期,短期市场情绪有所好转,但铜价已明 | | | | | 显回升，价格或震荡运行。 | | | | 着% | 电解铝自身产业面无明显矛盾,在中美贸易谈判结果超预期情况 铝价延续反弹走势。 | | | 氧化铝 | 看头 | 铝土矿及氧化铝供应扰动有所提升,氧化 ...

固定收益/固收周报 短期债市调整压力增加 ——固收周报（2025.05.05-2025.05.09） 利率债：国债收益率多数下行，期限利差走阔：2025 年 05 月 02 日- 2025 年 05 月 09 日期间，央行总计开展 8,361.00 亿元逆回购操作，共 16,178.00亿元逆回购到期，全口径下净回笼 7,817.00亿元。银行间资 金价格整体下行，其中，DR001 下行 29.45BP 至 1.4908%；DR007 下 行 25.77BP 至 1.5409%。利率债一级市场发行 5,785.79 亿元，净融资 额为 2,352.91 亿元。国债 10 年期上行 1.08BP 至 1.6351%，1 年期、3 年期 、5 年期、7 年期国债收益率分别下行 4.05BP、1.33BP、 2.06BP、0.86BP 至 1.4194%、1.4633%、1.4957%、1.5720%。10Y-1Y 期限利差从 16.44BP 走阔至 21.57BP。 信用债：信用债到期收益率整体下行：2025 年 05 月 05 日-2025 年 05 月 11日期间，信用债发行规模增加，其中信用债一级市场新发行 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [9] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - Gold prices may temporarily maintain a volatile pattern due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies and inflation expectations [9] - Silver prices show a slightly stronger trend than gold under the current risk sentiment, and the gold-silver ratio may decline in the near future, but a neutral attitude is still recommended for the absolute price of silver [9] Market News and Important Data - On May 13, 2025, the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.4%. The core CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year, still well above the Fed's 2% long-term target [2] - Trump pressured Powell to cut interest rates after the CPI report, saying the stock market would soar [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US will bring back pharmaceutical, semiconductor and other strategic industries, so the short-term agreement between China and the US in Geneva does not mean the end of future trade disputes [2] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 13, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 760.80 yuan/gram and closed at 767.68 yuan/gram, down 0.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 625,489 lots, and the open interest was 214,581 lots [3] - On May 13, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,130 yuan/kg and closed at 8,219 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 445,790 lots, and the open interest was 188,738 lots [3] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 13, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.45%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.47%, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract on May 13, 2025, the long positions increased by 883 lots compared with the previous day, while the short positions decreased by 37 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 833,063 lots, up 0.28% from the previous trading day [5] - On the Ag2502 contract on May 13, 2025, the long positions increased by 188 lots, and the short positions increased by 254 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,182,017 lots, down 3.91% from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - On May 13, 2025, the gold ETF position was 736.51 tons, down 2.58 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 13,999.75 tons, down 29.70 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On May 13, 2025, the price difference between the Shanghai Gold main contract and Au(T+d) was 0.81 yuan/gram, down 3.05 yuan/gram from the previous trading day. The price difference between the Shanghai Silver main contract and Ag(T+d) was 38 yuan/kg, down 10 yuan/kg from the previous trading day [7] - On May 13, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was 19.29 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -332.50 yuan/kg [7] - On May 13, 2025, the price ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contracts was about 93.40, down 0.44% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of the foreign market was 98.85, down 2.37% from the previous trading day [7] Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d Market Monitoring - On May 13, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 76,248 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 522,642 kg, up 9.34% from the previous trading day [8] - On May 13, 2025, the delivery volume of gold was 17,048 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 24,300 kg [8]

| | 中美相互关税水平下降,风险偏好有望提升 | | --- | --- | | | 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明点评 | | | 事件 | | 日期: 2025年05月13日 | | | | 2025年5月12日,中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明对外发布。 | | 分析师: 张河生 | | | Tel: 021-53686158 | 主要观点 | | E-mail: zhanghesheng@shzq.com | | | SAC 编号: S0870523100004 | 2025年美国对中国商品加征关税累计为 30%。 | | 相关报告: | 按照联合声明,美国于４月２日对中国商品加征 34%的关税,其 | | 《降息降准落地,金融全方位发力》 | 中 24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施,同时保留按该行政令的规定 | | -2025年05月08日 | 对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税;另外,取消根据2025年4月8日第 | | 《美国非农超预期,东亚货币兑美元升 | | | 值》 | 14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对这些商品的加 | | -2025年05月06日 | 征关税。也就是说美 ...

2025年5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（下称《声明》）。资本市场反响热烈，恒 生指数大涨3%，人民币升破7.2关口。 一、双边关税：超预期大幅下行 结合双方信息，此次中美主要达成了三方面共识。 资料来源：招商银行研究院 二是双方同意设立中美经贸磋商机制， 定期在中、美或第三国开展对话，重点解决供应链安全、数字贸易规 则等议题。 三是达成部分产业共识， 美中双方已就五到六个具有战略意义的产业链供应链脆弱环节达成初步共识，如医 药和钢铁等行业，美国将在这些领域寻求供应链独立性，并优先从盟友国家获取稳定供应。 一是双边关税超预期大幅下行。美国方面，4月2日后对华加征的额外关税大幅降至10%， 还有24%的关税将 在"解放日"后的90天内暂停实施。如此一来，5月14日后，美国对华对等关税将由125%降至10%，此部分"基础 关税"或长期保留。叠加2-3月累计加征的20%"芬太尼"关税，特朗普2.0时期对华加征的关税将降至30%。特朗 普政府在对等关税的实施上对所有国家"一视同仁"，对中国也按下了暂停键。加上特朗普1.0时期所加征的关 税， 当前美国对华平均关税为42.7%。 结合各方信息研判 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-05-13 2025-05-12，美国 10 年期国债利率收于4.37%，较前一交易日变化0.00%，10 年前与 2 年期利差为0.47%，较前 一交易日下降2个基点。 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2025-05-12，Au2502合约上，多头较前一日变化1747手，空头则是变化113手。沪金合约上个交易日总成交量为 830740手，较前一交易日上涨 -11.57%。在沪银方面，在 Ag2502 合约上，多头883手，空头增持597手。白银合约 上个交易日总成交量 1137536手，较前一交易日下降 17.77%。 贵金属 ETF 持仓跟踪： 中美会谈达成协议 金价承压回落 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布称，中美各取消91%的关税，暂停实施24%的关税。这使得市场风险情 绪再度回升，美股三大股指均大幅上涨，美元同样走强，这使得贵金属价格承压。此外，美国财长贝森特称，将 研究如何解决非关税壁垒的问题。而在货币政策方面，美联储理事库格勒支持将利率维持在当前水平不变，同时 他仍认为关税会产生重大影响。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-05-12，沪金主力合约 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-13 持货商出货情绪有所分化 铜价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-05-12，沪铜主力合约开于 77950元/吨，收于 78260元/吨，较前一交易日收盘1.05%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 78,080元/吨，收于 77,820 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.27%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯， 昨日日内出货情绪分化，部分企业于盘初开始平水成交，拖累成交价格。进入主流交易时段，主流 平水铜从贴水10元/吨逐渐成交下滑至贴水50元/吨，中条山、金冠等成交于贴水50元/吨附近，金川大板、贵溪等于 平水附近成交。非注册货源贴水100元/吨附近，日内铜价上涨，下游压价明显，成交于贴水140-贴水100元/吨。 临 近交割，沪期铜2505合约减仓增加，隔月价差表现收窄，现货逐渐接近交割逻辑，但若贴水进一步扩大，预计市 场将表现收货情绪用于交割。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布并称中美各取消91%的关税，暂停实施24%的关税。市场风险 情绪因此回升，铜价震荡走强。国内方面，今年前4个月，我国汽车产销量历史上首次双双突破 ...