Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen is experiencing an increase in available listings, with 72,241 units for sale as of June 23, reflecting a rise of 410 units from the previous week. However, price recovery remains limited, and many homeowners are motivated to sell due to market conditions and the influx of new homes [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of June 23, the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen has 72,241 active listings, an increase of 410 from the previous week [1]. - The average negotiation rate for second-hand homes has remained stable at around 9% for seven consecutive weeks, indicating a steady homeowner mindset [1]. - The demand for new homes is being stimulated by the entry of high-efficiency new properties, leading to an increase in the supply of second-hand homes as homeowners seek to upgrade [1]. Group 2: Sales Performance - In the 25th week of 2025, Shenzhen recorded 1,299 second-hand home transactions, a decrease of 11.9% compared to the previous week [2]. - New home sales in Shenzhen have shown a slight increase, reaching 1,150 units, indicating a divergence in the performance between new and second-hand markets [2]. - Major cities are witnessing a trend where the new home market is recovering while the second-hand market lags behind, with cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu showing growth in new home transaction areas [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market is expected to gradually normalize as educational demand diminishes, with active transactions likely to focus on well-located or high-value properties [2]. - The ongoing competition from the new home market, driven by policy adjustments and developer incentives, may pressure second-hand home prices to decline further if listings continue to rise [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in personal income tax (PIT) revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% from January to May, surpassing the overall tax revenue growth rate of -1.6% [1] - In May, the PIT growth accelerated to 12.3% compared to April, indicating a strong performance among major tax categories [1] - Analysts attribute the high growth in PIT to a combination of economic recovery, enhanced tax administration, wage adjustments, and dividend income [1][3] Group 2 - The marginal recovery in residents' income is a primary driver of the PIT increase, with urban residents' disposable income growing by 4.9% year-on-year in Q1, a 0.3 percentage point increase from Q4 of the previous year [3] - The active second-hand housing market in several cities has also contributed to the rise in PIT revenue [3][4] - The implementation of the "Golden Tax" Phase IV system has strengthened tax collection efforts, utilizing big data and artificial intelligence to monitor tax compliance [7][8] Group 3 - Wage adjustments and dividend income are significant factors influencing the PIT growth, with wages and dividends accounting for nearly 80% of PIT revenue [8] - The potential for continued high PIT growth in the second half of the year is supported by the expectation of further wage adjustments and stable dividend policies [8] - Despite potential economic uncertainties and a cooling real estate market, the likelihood of PIT experiencing negative growth remains low [10]

赣州在房地产市场改革上持续加码！从 "以旧换新" 补贴政策，到如今的政府收购房源，每一步都精准踩中市场痛点。《赣州市商品住房 "以旧换新" 实施 方案 (试行)》刚给换房人群和市场主体发完补贴 "大礼包"，政府收购房源的新举措又迅速跟进。 早在去年，赣州市人民政府就印发了16条促进房地产市场平稳健康发展的措施，其中明确提出契税补贴、推行房票安置，以及支持收购库存商品房等关键 政策。而这次政府出手收购房源，核心目标直指保民生与稳市场两大关键。 在保障民生方面，收购的房源将直接转化为保障性住房、人才公寓，重点解决中低收入群体和人才的住房难题。比如外来人才和收入有限的家庭，未来将 以更低的租金住进这些房子，真正实现 "住有所居"。 在稳定市场层面，政府通过收购积压的库存房源，帮助房企快速回笼资金，避免因库存过多导致房价大幅波动。这不仅缓解了房企资金链紧张的问题，也 给整个房地产市场吃下了 "定心丸"。 目前，南康区、于都县、信丰县已率先行动。南康区按需收购房源，用于返迁安置和保障住房；于都县计划收购国有企业开发的958套存量商品房（约5.1 万㎡，户型90㎡左右），专门解决工薪阶层的住房困难； 信丰县则聚焦城区优质 ...

近期，广州白云新城举办的第三届南方财富峰会上，数百名来自广东省的企业家和专家学者齐聚一堂。中房集团董事长孟晓苏在接受采访时大胆预测：如果 将2022年中国老百姓新增15万亿存款的三分之一用于购房、装修及相关消费，中国经济便可重振雄风。然而，这一提议却引发了广泛争议，其可行性遭到众 多网友的质疑，理由有三： 一、 经济下行与储蓄意愿的增强： 2022年，疫情反复冲击以及实体经济低迷，导致民众普遍担忧失业和收入减少，购房需求自然被搁置。央行发布的 《2022年第四季度城镇储户问卷调查报告》显示，倾向"更多储蓄"的居民占比高达61.8%，较上一季度增长3.7个百分点，这直接反映出民众对未来经济的谨 慎态度以及风险规避的强烈意愿。 并非所有家庭的存款都增加了，这15万亿的增量更多地流向了本已拥有充裕资金、且无需购房的富裕阶层，而真正需要 购房的低收入群体却往往无力承担。 二、 高房价与购房能力的巨大差距： 即便拥有存款，高昂的房价也构成了巨大的门槛。2022年12月，全国百城新建商品住宅均价高达16177元/平方米，二 手住宅均价也达到15876元/平方米。一套普通住宅动辄需要150万至250万，首付便需50万至60 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive trend in Hubei's real estate market, driven by proactive measures and market vitality, with a 5.9% year-on-year increase in new residential sales area from January to May, marking six consecutive months of growth and ranking among the top in the country [1][8] Group 2 - In Wuhan, the real estate market is particularly vibrant, with significant sales figures reported in May, including 7,653 new residential units sold, representing a 26.33% year-on-year increase [4][5] - High-quality residential projects have been a key driver, with 31 projects launched in April and May, totaling 490,000 square meters, leading to a 43.9% increase in sales of these projects [4][5] Group 3 - Policy support has played a crucial role in stimulating market activity, with the introduction of the new "Han Nine Articles" and various promotional events leading to a 30% increase in foot traffic at sales offices [5][7] - The "Xiang Twelve Articles" policy has also contributed to the market's strength, with notable sales in the Xiangyang area, where a project sold 73 units in three days [7][8] Group 4 - Overall, the data indicates a robust recovery in Hubei's real estate market, with 14 cities showing positive growth in new residential sales area from January to May, and 56 counties also reporting increases [8]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 房地产 证券研究报告 5 月统计局地产指标怎么看？ 行业追踪（2025.6.14-2025.6.20） 1）销售端：2025 年 1-5 月，商品房销售金额同比-3.8%，增速较 1-4 月下降 0.6pct；5 月单月销售金额环比+13.1%，同比-6.0%，降幅较 4 月收窄 0.7pct。1-5 月销售面积同比 -2.9%，增速较 1-4 月下降 0.1pct；5 月单月商品房销售面积环比+10.3%，同比-3.3%， 降幅较 4 月增大 1.2pct。2） 投资端： 2025 年 1-5 月，房地产开发投资累计完成额同比 -10.7%，较 1-4 月下降 0.4pct。5 月单月同比-12.0%，降幅较 4 月增大 0.7pct；新开工 面积累计同比-22.8%，较 1-4 月上升 1.0pct；5 月单月同比-22.8%，较 1-4 月提升 2.9pct； 施工面积累计同比-9.2%,增速较 1-4 月增长 0.5pct；房屋竣工面积累计同比-17.3%，增速 较 1-4 月下降 0.4pct。3） 资金端： 2025 年 1-5 月，到位资金同比-5.3%，较 1-4 ...

最近，国际大投行高盛又盯上了中国房地产，不出所料，这份报告一出来就炸开了锅。 他在报告里最扎心的一句是："中国房地产的'黄金时代'已彻底终结！" 这句话一针见血，点明了整个行业现在的大麻烦。 具体咋回事？我们一起来捋捋关于这次高盛的预测： 01、需求断崖：从2000万套到不足500万套 高盛最新研究报告指出，"未来数年（2025-2030年）中国城镇年均新房需求将骤降至410-500万套，较2017年2000万套的峰值缩水75%。" 这种断崖式的下跌依据是啥？业内人透过大佬的报告指出，有三个结构性的因素共同驱动： ①人口塌陷：人少了，结婚生娃的也少了 自从2022年我国人口首次进入负增长以来，按照这种负增长趋势，到2030年，每年减少的人口数量甚至达到数百万，而人口的持续减少也将拖累每年140 万套住房需求。 比如，当前主力购房群体已经出现了持续下降，90后年轻人比80后减少4000万，00后比90后减少3000多万，结婚登记暴跌35%，新生儿数量八年下降 40%…… 这些负面数据的背后，都透露出一个现实——刚需群体呈现"断崖式萎缩"。 02、市场分化：库存压力下的"冰火两重天" 随着需求持续萎缩，市场连锁反 ...

2024年，房地产市场呈现出令人困惑的局面。 看似利好政策频出——限购政策在绝大多数城市全面放开，银行将房贷利率下调至4%以下，首 付比例降至20%，公积金贷款额度上限亦有所上调，旨在刺激刚需购房者入市。然而，市场并未如预期般回暖，长期调整的趋势依然显著。5 月份的数据显示，百城二手住宅平均价格已连续25个月环比下跌，达到14870元/平方米，且环比下跌城市数量连续12个月超过90个，印证了市 场低迷的现状。 面对这一现状，"抓紧买房"与"继续存款"的争议持续不断。 "抓紧买房"的观点认为，当前利好政策叠加，是刚需购房的良机，错过可能后悔莫 及。而"继续存款"的观点则认为，房地产市场长期调整趋势已定，此时购房风险较高，不如选择稳妥的存款。 然而，四个不容忽视的现象已昭示了答案： 一、利好政策效果甚微： 尽管限购全面放开，首付比例和房贷利率均创下历史新低，甚至杭州、成都、西安、重庆等重点城市也加入了政策 放松的行列，但市场成交量短暂反弹后迅速回落，调整趋势依然持续。这背后的原因是多方面的：疫情冲击下居民收入下降，购房能力受损， 难以支撑高房价；购房者心态更为理性，不再盲目冲动；房价持续下跌，削弱了投资炒作的吸引 ...

Group 1 - Shanghai's real estate market has seen a surge with the announcement of new residential land and housing projects, with a total of 961 new units set to be launched across various districts [1] - The upcoming residential land auction in late July includes 8 prime plots located in key administrative districts, indicating strong demand for core urban areas [1] - The average price of the new housing projects ranges from 30,000 to 91,500 CNY per square meter, catering primarily to first-time homebuyers [1] Group 2 - As of June 15, the number of second-hand home transactions in Shanghai exceeded 10,000, indicating a robust market performance compared to the previous month [2] - The new housing market is expected to maintain strong performance in June, supported by high demand for second-hand homes and a successful launch of new projects [2] - The first "daylight" listing of the month occurred on June 11, with a new project achieving a subscription rate of 216%, reflecting strong buyer interest [2]

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 21 日 [Table_Title] 一线二手房销售五连跌 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 二手房成交环比小幅增长，而同比由增转降。本周（6 月 13-19 日），15 城二手房成交面积 234 万平，在过 去四周 224-255 万平区间内波动，环比小幅增长 3%。同比来看，本周 15 城二手房成交下滑 5%，偏弱，6 月以 来增幅收窄至 1%，5 月、4 月和 3 月分别增长 4%、20%、38%。 分城市层级看，一线城市二手房环比连续五周下滑。一线城市成交面积环比下滑 2%，其中深圳环比下滑 10%，成交 14 万平，仍处于过去四周 11-16 万平的较高位；上海环比下滑 4%，成交面积 41 万平，略低于过去 四周的 42-48 万平；北京表现相对较好，环比增长 5%，成交面积 36 万平，过去四周介于 34-38 万平之间。 二线、三线二手房环比均连续两周增长，环比增速分别为 4%、14%。二线城市中，南宁环比增幅较大，达 81%，青岛和成都分别增长 7%、5%，而杭州、苏州和厦门环比 ...