转自：华尔街日报 全球央行都在降息，美联储成了"异类"。鲍威尔用22次"等待"释放了什么信号？ 美联储主席鲍威尔在今天凌晨的新闻发布会上，淡化了任何有关该央行将通过降息来缓解特朗普关税政 策所带来的经济疲软的印象。 鲍威尔用了22次"等待"（wait）一词来强调美联储并不着急。他说："我们认为，等待的成本相当低， 所以我们正在这样做。" 鲍威尔的言论暴露了特朗普不可预测和反复无常的贸易声明是如何在美国和其他富裕国家之间的货币政 策上造成分歧的。 造成这种差异的原因很简单：其他经济体并没有对进口商品大幅加税。因此，它们看到了需求走软和劳 动力市场走弱的影响，但没有美联储政策制定者今年晚些时候可能要应对的价格上涨的影响。 此外，由于经济刚刚经历了一段艰难的高通胀时期，美联储官员认为他们不能冒险先发制人地降低利 率，以改善招聘放缓，以免在短期内加剧物价上涨的压力。 这与2019年的情况不同，当时美联储三次降息，以支撑经济免受特朗普首次贸易战后情绪恶化的影响。 鲍威尔周三表示："这种情况下，我们不能先发制人，因为在我们看到更多数据之前，我们实际上不知 道对数据的正确反应是什么。" 其结果是，美联储的处境与欧洲、加拿大 ...

欧洲央行管委斯图纳拉斯：看来欧洲央行将继续降息 智通财经5月5日电，欧洲央行管委斯图纳拉斯表示，看来欧洲央行将继续降息。 ...

受超预期非农数据的影响，三大期指集体走高。截至发稿，道琼斯指数期货涨1.09%，标普500指数期 货涨1.17%，纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.97%。 现货黄金短线走低约8美元，现报3251.97美元/盎司。 美国总统特朗普再次在社交媒体上表示，美国没有通货膨胀，美联储应该降低利率。他还表示，"汽油 刚刚跌破每加仑1.98美元，为多年来的最低水平，杂货价格下降，能源价格下降"。 周五(5月2日)美股盘前，美国系列重磅经济数据刚刚出炉。劳工统计局报告称，美国4月非农就业人数 增加17.7万，大幅超出预估的13.8万增量，前值为增加22.8万；美国4月失业率报4.2%，市场预估为 4.2%，前值为4.2%。 美国非农就业数据公布后，美国国债收益率上涨，而美元也收复失地。 此外，交易员仍预计美联储今年将降息近四次。美联储官员此前表示，在进一步明确政府的政策将对经 济产生的影响之前，他们并不急于降息，并且根据普遍预计，美联储将在5月的下一次会议上将保持基 准利率不变。 同一日，欧盟统计局初步估计，欧元区今年4月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨2.2%，与前值相平，略超 出经济学家预期的2.1%；然而不包括食品、酒精、 ...

欧元区通胀保持不变后，欧洲央行可进一步降息 金十数据5月2日讯，德国复兴信贷银行经济学家舍恩瓦尔德在一份报告中说，在数据显示欧元区4月份 通胀率保持在2.2%之后，欧洲央行应该可以自由地再次降息。她说，欧元走强使进口商品更便宜，再 加上贸易冲突对经济的抑制，应该足以在中期将消费者通胀率稳定在2%的目标附近。这为欧洲央行在6 月份再次降息留下了余地。然而，欧元区服务业的价格压力仍然居高不下，推高了核心通胀率。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's inflation rate in April remained at 2.2%, exceeding the expected 2.1%, complicating the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - Eurozone inflation has been above the ECB's target of 2% for six consecutive months [1] - The ECB's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% was influenced by concerns over economic growth due to escalating trade tensions from Trump's tariff agenda [1] Group 2: Economic Performance - The Eurozone economy grew by 0.4% in the first three months of the year, which was better than expected [1] - However, the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump has since weakened the economic outlook for the region [1]

金十数据4月30日讯，财经网站Forexlive：德国4月CPI月率略高于预期，但不会改变欧洲央行6月份降息 的计划。不过，核心通胀出现了显著的跃升。我们将观察未来几个月事态的发展，但贸易谈判仍是市场 关注的焦点。从长远来看，如果贸易战方面取得进展，可能会看到需求强劲而突然的回升，这将推动经 济活动和价格上涨。这是值得警惕的，因为它可能引发更强硬的利率预期重新定价。 机构：德国CPI略高于预期也不会改变欧洲央行六月降息的计划 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing potential inflationary pressures in the Eurozone due to U.S. trade tariffs, which may hinder global economic expansion [1] - ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone indicated that these tariffs could lead to a deflationary effect in the Eurozone in the short to medium term [1] - The unexpected appreciation of the Euro following the U.S. tariffs has surprised ECB policymakers, who initially anticipated a depreciation that would increase import costs [1] Group 2 - Recent data shows that Eurozone consumers' inflation expectations for the next year rose to 2.9% in March, up from 2.6% in February, marking the highest level since April 2024 [2] - Following a 25 basis point rate cut, the market anticipates further reductions in borrowing costs by the ECB, with expectations of two to three additional cuts this year [2] - Economists from major banks predict that the ECB may lower the deposit facility rate to at least 1.5% to stimulate demand [2] Group 3 - The volatility in U.S. tariffs has caused market turmoil, leading investors to seek alternatives to U.S. assets [3] - Cipollone noted that the recent performance of U.S. financial markets suggests they are not serving their usual role as a safe haven, which could have significant implications for capital flows and the international financial system [3] - The long-term effects of higher tariffs may undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar's dominance in international trade and finance, potentially leading to a more multipolar currency system [3]

Group 1 - Chinese companies including ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent have placed orders for at least $16 billion worth of Nvidia H20 chips in Q1 2024 [2] - Multiple fund companies have received notifications from index companies about a reduction in index authorization fees, with the fees being generally reduced by 20% [4] Group 2 - Several companies reported significant year-on-year net profit growth in Q1, including: - Yitu Technology with a 287% increase - Lantian Co. with a 3543% increase - Jinlang Technology with an 860% increase - Juchip Technology with a 386% increase - Wuhan Fangu with a 195% increase - Huichuan Technology with a 63.08% increase - Xingqi Eye Medicine with a 320% increase - WuXi AppTec with an 89.06% increase - Yunnan Baiyao with a 14% increase - Shengyi Electronics with a 656.87% increase - Hongjing Technology turning a profit of 21.65 million yuan [5] Group 3 - Several companies reported declines in net profit for Q1, including: - Transsion Holdings with a 70% decrease - Dongbei Group with a 5.85% decrease - Zhongbei Communication with a 59% decrease, despite a 973% increase in intelligent computing business revenue - BAIC Blue Valley with a net loss of 953 million yuan, planning to raise no more than 6 billion yuan through a private placement - Yanghe Distillery with a 39.93% decrease [6] Group 4 - Stocks of multiple companies will face delisting risk warnings starting April 30, including: - Sitong Co. - Baidu Co. - ST Dongfang, which will terminate its listing - Weitai, which will also face delisting risk warnings - Aiai Precision Engineering [7][8] Group 5 - Lifan Technology announced it could not disclose its regular report by the scheduled date and is unlikely to do so within the legal timeframe [10] - The stock of Huadian Co. is set for a reduction of up to 12 million shares by Huishi Holdings [11] - Sairisi has applied for a main board listing in Hong Kong, with CICC and China Galaxy International Securities as joint sponsors [12]

"如果在六个月内从1.01美元升到了1.20美元，那么的确，这是一个大问题，" BCA Research首席欧洲策 略师Mathieu Savary说。高盛集团的经济学家称，自3月初以来欧元兑主要贸易伙伴的货币上涨了5%。 他们表示这可能会在未来两年每年使通胀率下降约0.2个百分点，但若欧元进一步升值这种拖累效应可 能加倍。Barings投资组合经理Brian Mangwiro认为，要对冲这种冲击，欧元兑美元升值到1.20以上就需 要欧洲央行在年底前将关键利率从从目前的2.25%降至1.5%以下。 ...