Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing pressure from multiple fronts, including public criticism from President Trump and unusual signals from Fed officials suggesting potential interest rate cuts [3][6] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is being undermined by political influences, particularly through the weakening of the Labor Statistics Bureau, which affects the reliability of inflation data [3][4] - The current political environment is shifting the focus of monetary policy from economic indicators to trade policies, as indicated by the Treasury Secretary's comments [6][8] Group 2 - The credibility of U.S. inflation data is in question, with nearly one-third of CPI data derived from estimates, leading to potential misguidance in monetary policy [4][6] - The Federal Reserve's role in stabilizing the dollar and the global financial order is at risk due to the U.S. government's fiscal tightening and its impact on statistical capabilities [4] - The ongoing political battle is reshaping the Federal Reserve's identity and operational independence, with implications for its future role in economic management [8]

Core Viewpoint - The UK government has announced a plan to revitalize the struggling onshore wind industry, emphasizing its role as a key source of affordable and rapidly constructed electricity, which will enhance energy independence [1] Group 1 - The UK government lifted the de facto ban on new onshore wind farms nearly a year ago [1] - Energy Secretary Ed Miliband highlighted the importance of onshore wind in the report released by the working group [1] - Onshore wind is recognized as one of the cheapest and fastest sources of electricity available [1]

为什么会这样？因为美联储现在的关注点发生了一些微妙的变化。他们不再仅仅盯着传统的就业和通胀 数字，而是开始花更多心思去琢磨一些"政策实验"带来的影响，特别是贸易和移民政策是如何改变美国 企业的经营和用人决策的。 Timiraos的核心看法是，6月就业报告不太可能动摇美联储今年夏季在利率问题上观望的模式。换句话 说，别太指望7月底的下次会议马上就会降息。 华尔街见闻此前提到，美联储"当红理事"沃勒和"特朗普提名"的美联储金融监管副主席鲍曼最近都表 示，支持最早7月降息。Timiraos指出，大多数美联储官员并未对7月降息的可能性做太多努力。 同时，美联储还面临着巨大的外部压力。美国总统特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔及其联储同事的施压可以 说已经到了白热化的地步，他甚至公开呼吁鲍威尔辞职。在这样的背景下，美联储的每一步棋都显得格 外谨慎，也格外引人注目。 一份不足以改变观望局面的就业报告 本周四公布的报告显示，美国6月新增非农就业人口14.7万，较华尔街预期多增4.1万，前两个月就业人 口合计上修1.6万；6月私人部门就业人口仅增加7.4万，创去年10月以来最低增幅；6月失业率未如预期 从5月的4.2%升至4.3%，反 ...

Group 1 - COMEX silver prices have increased significantly, currently trading at $37.20 per ounce, with a rise of 1.10% from the opening price of $36.79 per ounce [1][5] - The highest price reached today was $37.24 per ounce, while the lowest was $36.57 per ounce [1][5] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised, with two-thirds of reserve managers expressing worries about political interference affecting monetary policy [3] - Since President Trump took office, his public criticism and pressure on the Federal Reserve have led to a reassessment of the dollar's reliability as a safe-haven asset [3] - Approximately 35% of central banks surveyed believe the U.S. may require allies to convert medium- to long-term debt into ultra-long-term zero-coupon bonds, reflecting concerns over U.S. debt management strategies [4] - Despite these concerns, nearly 80% of respondents expect the dollar to maintain its status as the global reserve currency, with the dollar currently accounting for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves [4] - However, 29% of central banks plan to reduce investments in U.S. assets in the future, indicating a gradual decline in the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [4]

新华社北京7月3日电 继多次要求美国联邦储备委员会降息遭拒，进而威胁替换现任美联储主席鲍威尔后，美国 总统特朗普再次向鲍威尔发难，并要求国会调查鲍威尔。特朗普2日发文说，鲍威尔应立即辞职。 连续"开炮" 特朗普2日在社交媒体上转发关于鲍威尔应被调查的文章，并点评称"'太迟（先生）'应该立即辞职！！！" 特朗普在社交媒体发文截图 据多家媒体报道，特朗普政府当天以"存在政治立场偏差"和"在国会做虚假陈述"为由，要求国会调查鲍威尔，指 控鲍威尔牵头的美联储总部建筑翻新项目存在重大违规嫌疑，称鲍威尔在接受国会相关质询时刻意隐瞒事实、采 取消极态度，应当予以"免职追责"。 尽管特朗普已多次催促美联储降息，美联储公开市场委员会在6月18日结束的货币政策会议上仍决定维持联邦基金 利率目标区间不变。这是其自今年1月以来连续第四次决定维持利率不变。 6月18日，美联储主席鲍威尔在华盛顿出席记者会。新华社记者胡友松摄 鲍威尔7月1日在葡萄牙辛特拉举行的欧洲央行中央银行论坛上重申，美联储对进一步降息的前景保持耐心观望态 度，但不排除在本月会议上降息的可能性，称一切都取决于即将公布的数据。 "我们正在努力实现宏观稳定。"鲍威尔在论坛 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Political Influence - The recent political drama involves former President Trump calling for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to resign, highlighting ongoing political pressure on the Fed [1][3][15] - Powell defended the Fed's renovation plans during a congressional hearing, facing accusations of providing "deceptive testimony," which raises concerns about the independence of central banks as a foundation for financial stability [3][15] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Data Analysis - The "Bull Market 1+3 Principle" emphasizes that timely stock rotation is more effective than blind holding, with a focus on data-driven analysis rather than emotional trading [4] - Historical data shows that less than half of stocks outperform the index during bull markets, indicating a significant risk in passive holding strategies [5] - Recent trends in oil stocks suggest that institutional activity often precedes price movements, indicating that sudden market changes may be the result of prior strategic positioning by institutions [6][9][11] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Recommendations - Investors should focus on data analysis tools that penetrate market noise and reveal true market behavior, rather than being swayed by sensational news [17][21] - The importance of understanding the actual flow of funds in the market is emphasized, as it is more critical than the narratives surrounding stocks [21]

金十数据7月3日讯，德意志银行研究部在一项全球金融市场调查中说，只有16%的市场参与者认为美联 储是完全独立的。四分之一的受访者认为政治压力将导致利率下调，指特朗普多次插手美联储政策。与 此同时，58%的人认为它对政策的影响微乎其微。 调查显示，市场认为美联储的独立性面临风险 ...

瑞银资产管理公司全球主权市场策略与咨询主管马克斯•卡斯泰利表示，这些担忧表明，"非常明显"的 是，关税措施改变了储备管理者对美元的看法。 调查称，29%的受访者希望减少对美国资产的敞口，以应对近期的事态发展。然而，在未来一年，25% 的央行表示，在剔除那些希望增加美元敞口的央行后，它们预计将减少美元敞口，略低于过去一年。 卡斯泰利说:"当你问:你认为美元的主导地位真的会发生重大变化吗?答案是否定的。"他补充称，储备管 理者需要时间进行调整。 近80%的受访者预计，美元(目前占外汇储备的58%)仍将是全球储备货币。在未来一年，黄金是最大的 赢家，52%的央行希望增加黄金储备。 卡斯泰利表示，这主要反映出新兴市场央行对制裁风险的担忧，主要涉及存放在美国的黄金。特朗普的 政策也重新引发了德国对其央行黄金储备的质疑，其中一些黄金储备存放在纽约联邦储备银行。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银资产管理公司周四公布的一项调查显示，三分之二的央行管理者担心美联储的 独立性受到威胁，近一半的官员认为美国的法治可能会恶化到足以严重影响他们的资产配置。 近40家央行中有35%认为，美国可能会要求盟友将长期债务转换为其他工具，如超长期零息债 ...

瑞银调查显示，65%的受访者认为美联储独立性面临风险，47%的人认为风险法治恶化到足以影响资产 配置。 ...

鲍威尔的态度成为这场风波的核心悬念。他多次拒绝透露，在明年 5 月四年主席任期届满后，是选择卸任，还是继续留任美联储理事会。从制度层面看，鲍 威尔在技术上完全可以担任理事直至 2028 年 1 月任期结束。这种不确定性迫使政府官员不得不未雨绸缪，为美联储主席继任者制定多套备选方案。而特朗 普的目标十分明确，他迫切希望找到一位能够坚定支持其经济议程的美联储主席，试图将货币政策纳入自己的施政轨道。 特朗普曾在周二自信满满地宣称，自己心中已有 "两三个顶级人选" 可能接替鲍威尔，但却对具体姓名讳莫如深。更具戏剧性的是，据知情人士透露，最近 几周，特朗普的顾问甚至脑洞大开，与他讨论过让贝森特同时担任财政部长和美联储主席的可能性。这一设想如若成真，将彻底打破自 1935 年以来两项职 务分立的传统，在金融界和政界引发强烈震动。不过，白宫官员迅速出面辟谣，坚称相关报道是 "彻头彻尾的假新闻"，财政部发言人也引用贝森特本人的 表态，称其对现职颇为满意。 Juno markets发现当美国总统特朗普将目光聚焦于美联储主席的人选更替时，一场充满火药味的政治与经济博弈在华盛顿悄然上演。特朗普及其顾问团队试 图为美联储寻找新舵手， ...