洛杉矶的街头硝烟未散，联邦政府的军队已整装待命——这场围绕非法移民的"战争"，正在将美国推向宪政危机的边缘。 街头冲突的升级进一步加剧了局势的失控。6月7日晚间，洛杉矶警方宣布全市进入战术警戒状态，11人因非法集会遭逮捕，抗议者与国民警卫队爆发激烈冲 突。中国记者在报道中不幸"中弹"，凸显局势的混乱。民主党则趁机将矛头指向特朗普，称其行动是"暴政的体现"，号召民众继续抗议。两党对立从国会辩 论蔓延至街头巷尾，美国社会撕裂愈发明显。 移民问题在美国本就是一根敏感的神经。拜登政府任期内宽松的移民政策导致大量新移民涌入，仅2022年后就有约500万非法移民进入美国，其中480万来自 墨西哥。他们填补了美国血汗工厂、保洁等行业的劳动力缺口，却也因身份问题成为社会矛盾的焦点。特朗普敏锐地抓住这一点，将移民问题推向极端，誓 言"每天抓捕3000名非法移民"，甚至要求移民局锁定服装厂、超市等目标实施突袭。这种强硬手段虽短期内可能提振共和党基本盘，却也让加州——这个民 主党的大本营——成为冲突的漩涡中心。 纽森的愤怒并非没有缘由。加州作为美国经济体量最大的州，贡献了全国近14%的GDP和15%的联邦税收。面对特朗普的"军事干 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing protests in Los Angeles are escalating tensions between the Trump administration and California government, particularly regarding immigration policies and enforcement actions [1][5]. Group 1: Immigration Enforcement Actions - Stephen Miller, a key figure in the Trump administration, expressed dissatisfaction with ICE's efforts to deport illegal immigrants and urged for more aggressive actions, including targeting temporary worker gathering spots like Home Depot and 7-11 [3][4]. - Following Miller's directives, ICE agents began conducting widespread arrests in various locations, leading to significant numbers of undocumented immigrants being detained without notifying their families or lawyers [3][8]. - ICE has reportedly set daily arrest quotas, and failure to meet these targets has resulted in consequences for agents, contributing to a more militarized approach to immigration enforcement [8][10]. Group 2: Public Response and Protests - The aggressive enforcement actions sparked protests in Los Angeles, with demonstrators clashing with law enforcement, who responded with tear gas and rubber bullets [5][7]. - The situation has drawn criticism from civil rights organizations, which argue that the current administration's tactics differ significantly from previous administrations, allowing for arrests without proper identification [10][11]. - The protests and ICE's actions have raised concerns about the safety and rights of immigrants, as well as the implications of such enforcement strategies on public perception and community relations [10][11].

Group 1 - Protests against immigration raids have escalated in 30 cities, including Los Angeles, Washington D.C., New York City, and San Francisco [1][4] - The U.S. Department of Defense has deployed approximately 700 Marines and 2,100 National Guard members to Los Angeles, with the operation expected to last 60 days at a cost of about $134 million [1][2] - President Trump has ordered the National Guard to remain in Los Angeles until the area is deemed "safe," and has threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act if necessary [2][3] Group 2 - California Governor Newsom has publicly criticized President Trump, urging him to take responsibility and end the situation, while Trump claims he attempted to contact Newsom without success [3] - Protests began following ICE raids in Los Angeles, with activists planning larger demonstrations, including a nationwide "Reject the King" event coinciding with a military parade in Washington [4][5] - Security measures for the upcoming military parade are being heightened, with expectations of 200,000 attendees and extensive preparations for crowd control [5]

Core Viewpoint - The significant changes in the U.S. immigration landscape are distorting the employment market, making it harder for investors and policymakers to accurately assess the actual slowdown in the labor market [1] Group 1: Labor Market Dynamics - A reduction in immigration supply could lead to a tighter labor market, potentially suppressing the rise in unemployment rates, despite being a temporary and artificial effect [1] - Recent data shows a decrease of 696,000 jobs in May, the largest single-month drop since the historic decline at the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, with some economists attributing this decline to the Trump administration's immigration crackdown [1][2] Group 2: Employment Growth Metrics - The "breakeven" employment growth value, which indicates the net new jobs needed to keep up with the growth of the working-age population and maintain stable unemployment rates, is declining [4] - Morgan Stanley economists noted that the average monthly "breakeven" employment growth was 210,000 last year, dropping to 170,000 this year, and projected to fall to 90,000 by the end of the year and 80,000 next year [8] - Ryan Sweet from Oxford Economics predicts that due to weak labor supply growth, the "breakeven" employment growth is rapidly approaching 50,000 per month [8] Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - The low unemployment rate may persist but could be due to misleading reasons, as indicated by Sweet [9] - If predictions hold true, monthly job growth in the U.S. may continue to slow without raising the unemployment rate, creating a confusing signal for investors and policymakers [10] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the labor market's stability and low unemployment, but acknowledged the need to examine a broader set of labor market indicators for a more accurate assessment [10] Group 4: Immigration Projections - The Congressional Budget Office projected net immigration to be 2 million this year and 1.5 million next year, down from 3.3 million in 2023, but these estimates may be overly optimistic given the Trump administration's hardline stance on immigration [11] - Morgan Stanley economists have significantly revised their net immigration forecasts down to 800,000 this year and 500,000 next year, suggesting a potential "false" tight labor market with monthly non-farm job growth far below 100,000 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing issues surrounding illegal immigration in the United States, highlighting the contrasting approaches of former President Trump and the current Biden administration, particularly in terms of deportation efforts and the complexities of the illegal immigration problem [1][6][9]. Group 1: Trump's Approach to Immigration - Trump invited Elvin Hernandez, an ICE agent, to symbolize his administration's stance on illegal immigration, focusing on criminal aspects associated with illegal immigrants [3][5]. - Trump's narrative consistently framed illegal immigrants as criminals, which influenced his policies, including the construction of a border wall and mass deportations [5][6]. - Despite Trump's efforts, data indicates that the Biden administration has achieved higher deportation numbers than Trump did during his presidency [6][7]. Group 2: Challenges in Addressing Illegal Immigration - The scale of illegal immigration in the U.S. is significant, with estimates suggesting around 11 million undocumented immigrants, making effective deportation a long-term challenge [9]. - The economic appeal of the U.S. as a global economic hub continues to attract new illegal immigrants, complicating the situation further [11]. - Historical and cultural ties between undocumented immigrants and local communities, particularly in states like California, create additional barriers to simple deportation solutions [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the political dynamics in California, particularly focusing on Governor Newsom's response to immigration policies and the tensions arising from them, as well as the implications for future elections and political maneuvering [1][17]. Group 1: Political Context - California is a hub for tech elites who are largely immigrants, and the anti-immigration policies of the Trump administration have created significant resentment among these groups [2][3]. - The article draws parallels between the current immigration tensions and the Black Lives Matter movement, suggesting that both are fueled by emotional responses rather than rational discourse [3][4]. Group 2: Governor Newsom's Strategy - Governor Newsom is leveraging the current political climate to position himself against Trump, aiming to attract swing voters by emphasizing the importance of immigration and state rights [7][17]. - Newsom's approach includes framing the immigration debate in a way that separates American interests from Trump's policies, thereby appealing to a broader audience [15][18]. Group 3: Implications for Future Elections - The article suggests that Newsom's actions are not just about immediate political gains but are also aimed at positioning himself for the 2028 presidential election [14][17]. - By focusing on the perceived threats to American law and political traditions posed by Trump, Newsom seeks to galvanize support among moderate voters [18][22]. Group 4: Broader Political Landscape - The article highlights the ongoing tensions within the U.S. political landscape, noting that while there are significant conflicts, the elite class tends to find compromises to maintain the status quo [21][26]. - It argues that the real conflict in America is not between different social classes but rather among the elite, who share common interests in preserving American hegemony [25][26].

【环球网报道】美国加利福尼亚州洛杉矶爆发的抗议活动和骚乱仍在持续。据美国《华盛顿邮报》报道，美国国土安全部长克丽丝蒂·诺姆当地时间10日指 控墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆"煽动"洛杉矶抗议活动，辛鲍姆同日晚些时候对此予以驳斥。 报道称，诺姆早些时候在白宫对记者说，"辛鲍姆站了出来，煽动在洛杉矶举行更多抗议活动，我谴责她的行为。她不应煽动正在进行的暴力抗议活动。" "我对此（指暴力抗议）一直持反对态度，现在我肩负着重大责任，反对立场更甚以往。与此同时，我们的立场现在和将来都会是捍卫诚实、勤劳的墨西哥 人，他们既为美国经济做出了贡献，也支撑着他们墨西哥家人的生活。"辛鲍姆在帖文中说。 辛鲍姆随后在社交平台X上发帖称，这项指控"完全错误"，并在该帖中附上此前一天她接受记者采访时发表评论的视频。视频中，她谴责暴力行为，并呼吁 洛杉矶的墨西哥社区"以和平的方式行事"。 美国总统特朗普以国家安全为由推行强硬移民政策，再次入主白宫后下令大规模抓捕和驱逐非法移民。美国移民与海关执法局等联邦机构执法人员本月6日 开始在洛杉矶搜捕非法移民，引发抗议和骚乱。与此同时，墨西哥国旗在洛杉矶抗议活动现场飘扬，在美国引发巨大争议。一些美国媒 ...

Group 1 - President Trump described the Los Angeles riots as a "foreign invasion" and stated that those burning the American flag should face one year in prison [1] - Trump criticized California Governor Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor for their incompetence and announced the deployment of 2,000 National Guard troops to Los Angeles without a request for support from the state [1] - California's government filed a lawsuit against Trump's memorandum and the Department of Defense's order to deploy National Guard troops, seeking to have the orders declared illegal [2] Group 2 - A federal judge in California rejected the state's request for a temporary restraining order to stop the deployment of military and National Guard troops for law enforcement activities, but scheduled a hearing for further discussion [3] - California Governor Newsom and Attorney General Bonta submitted a 28-page legal document to the court, seeking immediate action against the federal government's use of military and National Guard in community policing [3] Group 3 - Mexican President López Obrador called for comprehensive immigration reform in the U.S. and emphasized the importance of recognizing the contributions of immigrants to the U.S. economy [4] - López Obrador opposed the detention of immigrants in the U.S. and advocated for peaceful solutions rather than violent actions [4]

新西兰4月净移民估算增加1810人，至4月12个月经移民增速放缓至21,317人。 ...

上周五开始，美国加利福尼亚州洛杉矶市爆发反对美国政府严打非法移民的抗议。在加州街头乱象持续 之际，一些美国分析人士关注到移民问题与该国经济的紧密联系，并对当前移民减少可能冲击美国经济 表示担忧。(环球网) ...