期现日报 拾资咨询业务资格· 证监许可 【2011】12 2025年7月2日 星期三 70015979 价格及基美 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 80205 | 79990 | +215.00 | 0.27% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 200 | 130 | +70.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 80075 | 79940 | +135.00 | 0.17% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 90 | 65 | +25.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 80080 | 79915 | +165.00 | 0.21% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 75 | રેર | +20.00 | | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 2161 | 2131 | +30.00 | 1.41% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | 240.67 | 319.83 | -79.16 | ...

沪铜日评20250702: 国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会年存量环比减少 | | 变量名称 | 2025-07-01 | 2025-06-30 | 2025-06-23 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 80640 | 79870 | 78290 | 770.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 113449 | 100845 | 62987 | 12,504.00 ~ | | | | 持仓量(手) | 223983 | 212911 | 157429 | 11, 072. 00 | | | | 库存(吨) SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 24773 | 25851 | 25528 | -1, 078.00 215.00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | | | | | | | | | 沪铜基差 | 80205 -435 | 0666Z 120 | 78325 32 | -555.00 | | | (现货与期货) | 广州电解铜现货开贴水 | 90 | 651 | ...

有色60ETF跟踪的是中证有色指数，该指数由中证指数有限公司编制，从A股市场中选取涉及有色金属 采选、冶炼及加工等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属行业相关上市公司的整体表 现。其成分股覆盖贵金属、稀有金属等多个细分领域，具有较强的周期性和商品属性特征。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证有色金属ETF发起联接A（013218），国泰中证有色金属ETF发 起联接C（013219）。 7月2日，有色60ETF（159881）涨超1.3%。 西部证券指出，工业金属板块受美联储降息预期升温影响价格普涨。铜价方面，受美国232条款铜进口 调查影响，交易商将创纪录的铜运往美国以规避潜在关税，导致非美地区库存短缺。数据显示，LME 可交割库存规模年内暴跌约80%，现货对三个月期货升水一度达300美元/吨，创2021年以来新高。铝价 受益于几内亚铝土矿供应扰动，凸显产业链脆弱性。锌价则因LME库存持续去化表现强势。整体来 看，工业金属供需格局趋紧，铜冶炼加工费下行或引发减产预期，中长期价格中枢支撑较强。但需警惕 国内外宏观经济对需求的冲击，以及地缘政治和关税政策的不确定性风险。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-02 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20780元/吨，较上一交易日持平，长江A00铝现货升贴水较上一 交易日下跌30元/吨至20元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20560元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌50元/ 吨至-180元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20690元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌25元/吨至-45元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-01日沪铝主力合约开于20555元/吨，收于20635元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨85元/ 吨，涨幅0.41%，最高价达20640元/吨，最低价达到20505元/吨。全天交易日成交134634手，较上一交易日减 少33203手，全天交易日持仓283099手，较上一交易日增加10693手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-30，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.8万吨。截止2025-07-01，LME铝库存34.5 吨，较前一交易日增加550吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-01 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3075元/吨，山东价格录得3080元/吨，广西价格录得 3180元/吨， ...

本文基于以下微博话题的智搜结果生成 以下是关于"金饰克价涨至1000元"事件的综合分析及市场解读： 一、最新金价动态 品牌报价（7月1日数据） 周生生：1000元/克（单日涨15元） 周大福：998元/克（单日涨9元） 老庙黄金：995元/克（单日涨11元） 技术性反弹：金价此前跌破3300美元后触发程序化买盘，快速拉升。 反弹触发点：美联储降息预期升温、美元疲软，叠加地缘避险情绪回温。 二、涨价核心原因 政策与货币因素 美联储降息预期：特朗普施压美联储降息，美元指数跌至2022年3月以来低位，提升黄金吸引力。 全球央行购金：95%央行计划增持黄金储备（如中国Q1增购244吨），长期支撑金价。 市场情绪与技术面 避险需求回温：中东局势反复、关税冲突不确定性，资金回流黄金。 老凤祥：999元/克（单日涨12元）对比6月30日低位：周生生985元/克、老庙984元/克，半月内跌幅达50 元后快速反弹。 国际金价联动 现货黄金报3321.53美元/盎司（+0.57%），COMEX黄金期货报3333.3美元/盎司（+0.77%）。 杠杆风险：纸黄金市场30日年化波动率达18%，杠杆操作易爆仓。 五、实用建议 三、消费 ...

Group 1 - The black metal sector is experiencing a compression in steel mill profits, with rebar prices being driven up by raw material fluctuations [1] - Current trading logic includes acceptable steel mill profitability, short-term strong pig iron output, and a decline in raw material supply leading to a rebound, while seasonal steel demand is weakening [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the upcoming vote on a new fiscal bill are increasing market sentiment towards dual easing in U.S. fiscal and monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Rebar price expectations remain stable, with inventory levels low and limited expectations for significant accumulation in the future [1] - The acceleration of special bond issuance in June is noted, but the allocation towards practical work funds is decreasing, and real estate sales are weakening [1] - Attention is required on the July Politburo meeting for potential new policy stimuli for the real estate sector, with cautious outlooks on rebar prices and rebound heights [1] Group 3 - Hot-rolled coil prices have shown a recent increase in year-on-year demand, but there are expectations of weakening in reality, leading to a contraction in the price difference between hot and cold rolled products [1] - The steel mills are experiencing weaker order intake, with exports increasing year-on-year, but a significant decline in June exports is anticipated [1] - The market sentiment is positively influenced by the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, but demand expectations remain under pressure [1] Group 4 - Iron ore prices are showing strength due to seasonal declines in shipments expected in July and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] - Global shipments and arrivals have decreased, alleviating supply pressure, while iron water output remains stable with strong profit margins for blast furnaces [1] - The trading strategy suggests a gradual shift to short positions after a rebound, with resistance levels for the September contract noted at 720-740 yuan and support levels at 680 yuan and 640-650 yuan [1]

一、现货黄金基本面： 1.避险需求方面：6月23日凌晨，以色列中部多地响起防空警报，胡塞武装声称对以色列发动导弹袭击。23日早，有消息称伊朗支持的组织正准备袭击美国 在伊拉克和叙利亚的基地，随后伊朗攻击了美军驻卡塔尔基地，还向巴林发射了导弹等。这些冲突事件使得中东地区局势的不确定性和紧张程度大幅上升。 不过，6月24日特朗普宣布以色列和伊朗同意停火，紧张局势有所缓和。这会使市场的避险情绪降温，对黄金的避险需求减少，金价面临回调压力。 2. 市场预期方面：中东战局的发展可能会对全球经济产生一定的影响，进而影响货币政策预期。例如，如果冲突持续升级，可能会导致石油等大宗商品价格 上涨，引发通胀预期上升，这将对黄金构成支撑。但如果冲突导致全球经济增长放缓，各国央行可能会采取宽松的货币政策来刺激经济，这也会对黄金有 利。然而，目前来看，虽然中东局势紧张，但市场对美联储货币政策的预期主要还是受美国国内经济数据的影响。6月美联储议息会议维持利率不变，市场 对9月降息的预期从55%降至25%，导致美元指数反弹，压制了黄金的吸引力。 交易风险提示：任何投资都存在风险，包括资金损失的风险。该建议不构成具体的投资建议，投资者应根据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance is undergoing subtle changes, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its interest rate cut expectations from a single cut in December to three cuts starting in September, reflecting a reassessment of the U.S. economic environment and inflation trends [1]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Inflation - Goldman Sachs analysts noted that preliminary evidence suggests the impact of tariffs on inflation is less severe than previously expected, with May's personal consumption expenditure data showing an unexpected decline due to the fading effects of pre-tariff purchasing [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that without the Trump administration's tariff policies, the Fed would likely have begun cutting rates this year, indicating that tariffs have significantly raised inflation forecasts [3]. Group 2: Divergence in Market Expectations and Policy - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, with 10 officials advocating for at least two cuts this year while 7 officials express concerns over persistent price pressures from tariffs [4]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic maintains a forecast for one cut this year and three cuts by 2026, emphasizing the gradual impact of tariffs on prices and the need for more information before making rate adjustments [4]. Group 3: Economic Data and Future Policy Outlook - Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that if tariffs remain around 10%, the Fed might start cutting rates in the second half of 2025, contingent on the resolution of tariffs by July [5]. - Several investment banks, including Citigroup and Wells Fargo, expect the Fed to cut rates three times in 2025, with Goldman Sachs predicting two additional cuts in 2026, bringing the final rate to a range of 3.00%-3.25% [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant decline of the US dollar, which has led to a strong rebound in gold prices, marking a potential new trend in the market [1][3]. - The US dollar index has experienced its worst start in 50 years, dropping over 10% in the first half of 2025, while gold has surged by 5.5% in the second quarter, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a safe haven [3][5]. - The upcoming ADP and non-farm payroll data are expected to further influence gold prices, with historical data suggesting that lower non-farm payroll numbers could lead to substantial gains in gold [1][3]. Group 2 - The decline of the US dollar is attributed to a combination of factors, including expansive fiscal policies leading to increased national debt and concerns over the sustainability of US fiscal health [7]. - Global central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves by 30% year-on-year, providing structural support for gold prices amid rising demand [7]. - Market expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are also driving gold prices higher, with predictions of multiple rate cuts in the coming year [7]. Group 3 - The second quarter's performance of gold, with a 5.5% increase, breaks the typical seasonal volatility patterns, reflecting strong market reactions to global economic uncertainties and the weakening dollar [5][6]. - The investment strategies that contributed to gold's performance include geopolitical tensions, interest rate cut bets, and opportunistic trading in response to the dollar's decline [4]. - Historical data indicates that significant economic data releases can lead to notable price fluctuations in gold, creating trading opportunities for investors [8].

换资前言： 面对剧烈波动的市场行情，我们需要的是等待机会，一击而中，而不是在频繁的交易中迷失自己！合理 的把控仓位，利用支撑和阻力位下单，让每一单有理可依，有迹可循。买卖点位不应该是随意进场，请 对自己的资金负责，永远记住一句话，专业的人做专业的事，一切实战只为盈利，合作只为双赢。经常 做错方向和进出场点位把控的不是很好，操作中亏损的朋友，可与晟富一起交流。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周三（7月2日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3340美元/盎司附近。特朗普减税议案点燃 避险热潮，美联储降息预期再升温 ，黄金市场在2025年7月初迎来了新一轮的上涨热潮，现货黄金价格 周二飙升逾1%，触及6月24日以来的最高水平3357.82美元/盎司，收盘报3338.77美元/盎司，为连续两 个交易日上涨。这一涨势不仅受到美国参议院通过特朗普"大而美"减税与支出议案的推动，还与即将到 来的7月9日贸易关税暂停期限、全球储备货币格局的讨论以及美联储货币政策的最新动向密切相关。日 内将可关注美国6月挑战者企业裁员人数(万人)、美国6月ADP就业人数(万人)等数据，市场预期偏向利 空金价 ...