Geopolitical Landscape - China and Moscow are strengthening their political, military, and economic ties [1] - Their objective is to displace the U.S [1] Strategic Assessment - The Trump administration's National Security Strategy underestimated the severity of this threat [1]

Geopolitical and Economic Context - Geopolitical tensions, including issues in the Middle East, the Ukraine war, and US-China trade relations, have created a constant background hum affecting market stability [1][22] - Inflation remains a significant concern, with headline pressures easing but uneven progress, particularly in services, leading to ongoing debates about the necessary restrictiveness of monetary policy [2][11] US Economic Resilience - The US economy has shown unexpected resilience, with growth holding up, inflation cooling slowly, and a tight labor market keeping the Federal Reserve cautious about policy changes [3][12] - The upcoming end of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term in May introduces uncertainty regarding future monetary policy direction, with potential implications for the US Dollar [4][30] Dollar Outlook and Market Dynamics - The US Dollar is expected to gradually soften in the coming years, driven by narrowing interest-rate differentials and less asymmetric global growth, although aggressive rate cuts by the Fed are not anticipated [6][29] - The current market environment is characterized as a transition phase for the US Dollar, with conditions for broad-based appreciation beginning to erode but not collapsing [7][36] Fiscal Policy and Political Environment - US fiscal policy, marked by large deficits and rising debt issuance, complicates the Dollar outlook, as expansive fiscal measures support growth while increasing concerns about debt sustainability [14][15] - Political dynamics, particularly surrounding election years, tend to increase volatility in FX markets, as seen in recent government shutdowns [16][30] Valuation and Positioning - The US Dollar is currently not considered cheap, but speculative positioning indicates a significant number of market participants are already positioned for further Dollar weakness, which alters the risk profile [17][18] - A rich valuation combined with heavy short positioning suggests that a clean Dollar bear market is less likely, with potential for choppy trading and counter-trend moves [20][36] Currency Pair Outlook - The Euro is expected to find support as cyclical conditions improve, but structural challenges remain [24] - The Japanese Yen may benefit from Japan's gradual policy shift, though volatility is anticipated [25] - The Pound Sterling faces a tough backdrop with weak growth and limited fiscal flexibility [26] - The Chinese Renminbi is under depreciation pressure, but authorities are likely to manage it to avoid sharp moves [27] - Commodity currencies like the Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar may benefit from improved risk sentiment and stable commodity prices, though gains will be uneven [28] Scenarios for 2026 - The base case predicts a gradual loss of ground for the Dollar, while a more bullish scenario could arise from stickier inflation or geopolitical shocks [29][30] - A bearish scenario is less likely and would require a clearer global growth recovery and decisive Fed easing [30][31] Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for the Dollar suggests a range-bound movement rather than a decisive trend reversal, with key levels to watch for potential breaks [32][33] - The Dollar's recent pullback is viewed as a pause within a broader range, indicating that any downside is unlikely to be smooth or uncontested [34][36]

Geopolitical Landscape - China and Moscow are strengthening their political, military, and economic ties [1] - Their objective is to displace the U.S [1] Strategic Assessment - The Trump administration's National Security Strategy underestimated the severity of this threat [1]

Guinea is reaping the benefits of the geopolitical play between the world’s two biggest economies https://t.co/9K3eP11mQY ...

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting with competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in relation to complex financial instruments like cryptocurrencies and CFDs [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party materials intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute a recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - The content is not tailored to individual financial situations or needs, highlighting the necessity for users to exercise their own discretion [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about cryptocurrencies, CFDs, and other financial instruments, which are described as complex and high-risk [1]. - Users are encouraged to conduct their own research before making investment decisions and to fully understand the risks involved with these financial instruments [1].

The UK government imposed sanctions on three smaller Russian oil producers, as a US-brokered peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv remains elusive https://t.co/Fs6mKn2k6t ...

We had some successful predictions in The World Ahead 2025 for what might happen with the climate. But on geopolitics, our guesses were much more mixed https://t.co/ikgqWeqIcj ...

Oil tankers hauling Russian crude across the Black Sea are taking a roundabout route along the coastlines of Georgia and Turkey to reduce the risk of being targeted by Ukrainian sea drones https://t.co/2V1Op5Ii4A ...

Core Insights - The aerospace and defense sector is facing challenges due to potential executive orders that may impose penalties on defense primes, making profitability difficult given current operating margins of 10% and cash margins of 5% [2][4] - The balance between research and development (R&D) investment and shareholder returns is highlighted, with defense primes investing approximately $40 billion in R&D and capital expenditures while returning $50 billion through dividends and buybacks, indicating a 1.3% investment to return ratio [4][5] - The commercial aerospace market is projected to grow, with aircraft needs increasing by 3% and aftermarket services by 8-10%, making companies like GE and RTX attractive investments [7][8] Investment Dynamics - The lack of clarity in defense budgets complicates investment cycles for defense primes, which do not have 5-year budgets, impacting their ability to generate returns [8][9] - International growth is seen as a significant upside, with NATO spending potentially increasing from 2% to 3.5%, translating to $280 billion in investments for defense primes, benefiting both U.S. and European contractors [10][11] - RTX has a notable exposure to European spending, with 44% of its defense backlog linked to this market, indicating strong international growth potential [11] Geopolitical Influence - The current geopolitical climate, including U.S. defense budgets growing by 3-5%, is influencing the defense sector, with international sales typically yielding higher margins for American defense primes [10][13] - The Trump administration's support for both large and small contractors has led to increased funding and innovation within the defense sector, resulting in a rise in defense tech IPOs [14][15] - The global threat environment is broadening the focus for defense contractors beyond traditional regions, emphasizing the need for a diverse playbook to address various geopolitical challenges [15]

I am joining @PBDsPodcast LIVE for the next two hours.Economics, geopolitics, finance and tech. Maybe even a little bitcoin talk.Tune in here:https://t.co/rATyLq0Zm1 ...