Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that both gold and Bitcoin are preferred assets in the context of financial order reconstruction and risk aversion scenarios, with Bitcoin potentially outperforming gold in certain market conditions [1][10]. Group 1: Market Context and Trends - Recent concerns regarding sovereign debt, particularly in Japan and the U.S., highlight the risks associated with national credit, while gold and Bitcoin have shown stronger performance compared to other assets since the trade war began [2]. - The historical price movements of Bitcoin and gold reveal their commonalities and differences, providing insights into their current allocation value and future trends [2]. Group 2: Historical Performance of Bitcoin - Bitcoin has experienced two distinct eras since its inception in 2009, characterized by four market cycles, with the current phase being the fourth bull market [3]. - The first era (2009-2018) was marked by limited growth, while the second era (2019-present) has seen widespread adoption and acceptance of Bitcoin as a payment method [3]. Group 3: Historical Performance of Gold - Gold has undergone three bull markets and one bear market since 2009, with a general upward trend in prices [4]. - The first bull market (2009-2011) saw gold prices rise from $900 to nearly $1900 per ounce, while the second bear market (2012-2015) saw prices drop from $1895 to $1049.4 per ounce, a total decline of 44.6% [4]. Group 4: Commonalities and Differences between Bitcoin and Gold - Both Bitcoin and gold share characteristics of scarcity and serve as borderless currencies, which have driven their price trends since 2009 [5][6]. - The supply of gold is limited by annual mining output, while Bitcoin's supply is capped and undergoes halving every four years [6]. Group 5: Pricing Logic and Sensitivity - The value of both assets is sensitive to global liquidity conditions, with their relative value increasing during periods of liquidity expansion and decreasing during contractions [7]. - Bitcoin and gold serve as hedges against instability in sovereign currencies, with their decentralized nature allowing them to mitigate the effects of sovereign credit risks [7]. Group 6: Future Outlook for Bitcoin and Gold - Both gold and Bitcoin are expected to perform well in scenarios of financial order reconstruction, with Bitcoin's growth potential suggesting a higher price ceiling compared to gold [10][15]. - The ongoing trade tensions and the restructuring of global financial markets may lead to an expansion in the market value of both gold and Bitcoin [14].

Core Viewpoint - The heavy reliance of the Netherlands on American cloud services raises significant concerns about digital sovereignty and national security, especially in light of recent political tensions and incidents involving U.S. sanctions [1][2][3] Group 1: Dependence on American Cloud Services - A recent survey revealed that a vast number of Dutch public institutions, including government agencies and critical infrastructure operators, outsource their email and cloud services to American companies, with Microsoft holding a 60% market share in email services [1] - 63% of large Dutch enterprises and 60% of critical infrastructure companies, such as banks and water supply firms, depend on American cloud platforms like Microsoft and Google [1][2] - The Dutch government and various ministries are significantly reliant on Microsoft services, with 9 out of 15 ministries using its cloud solutions [1] Group 2: Risks and Security Concerns - Experts warn that key Dutch websites, including those of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Central Bank, could theoretically be shut down or altered by U.S. entities due to this dependence [2] - The U.S. government's ability to access Dutch data, even stored within the EU, poses a substantial risk to national security, especially in times of political conflict [2] - A report from a Dutch think tank emphasizes the need for the Netherlands to accelerate the development of local or European cloud service alternatives to mitigate systemic reliance on U.S. technology [2] Group 3: Academic and Political Response - The Dutch academic community is actively addressing the risks associated with U.S. digital storage, launching initiatives to back up critical research data stored on American servers [3] - The Dutch Parliament has passed several motions urging the government to reduce dependence on U.S. cloud services and to promote the development of domestic or European alternatives [3] - There is increasing pressure from lawmakers for the Dutch government to present actionable plans to enhance digital infrastructure resilience [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the need to clarify misconceptions about stablecoins and to recognize their functional attributes and strategic value, particularly in the context of developing offshore and onshore RMB stablecoins [1][2]. Group 1: Market Growth and Regulatory Landscape - Since the second half of 2023, the stablecoin market has entered a rapid growth phase, with a current market size exceeding $230 billion and over 250 million active accounts [1]. - Various countries, including the EU, Japan, Singapore, the UAE, and Hong Kong, have introduced regulations to support stablecoin innovation, with more than ten major countries planning related legislative initiatives by 2025 [1]. - The recent passage of the "GENIUS Act" in the U.S. Senate significantly increases the likelihood of further development in the stablecoin market [1]. Group 2: Misconceptions about Stablecoins - Misconception 1: Stablecoins are equated with general cryptocurrencies, overlooking their unique characteristics and governance mechanisms [3][4]. - Misconception 2: The belief that stablecoins lack stability is challenged by the fact that most stablecoins are backed by fiat currencies or assets, with the highest stability observed in fiat-backed stablecoins [5][6]. - Misconception 3: The notion that stablecoins conflict with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is addressed by highlighting their complementary roles in different transaction scenarios [9][10]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments and Transparency - Regulatory frameworks for stablecoin issuers are being established globally, focusing on aspects such as licensing, operational management, and reserve asset investment [8]. - Major stablecoin issuers are improving transparency and compliance, with USDC being a notable example of regular independent audits and reserve disclosures [7][8]. - The "GENIUS Act" in the U.S. sets specific capital, liquidity, and risk management requirements for stablecoin issuers, enhancing the stability of the market [8]. Group 4: Impact on Monetary Sovereignty and Internationalization - Concerns about stablecoins undermining domestic monetary sovereignty can be mitigated through regulatory measures that restrict their domestic use and manage reserve assets [13][14]. - The development of RMB stablecoins is positioned as a new engine for promoting the internationalization of the RMB, complementing existing cross-border payment systems [15][16]. - The potential of stablecoins to enhance the efficiency of cross-border payments is highlighted, with significant advantages over traditional banking systems [10][16]. Group 5: Addressing Illegal Financial Activities - The perception that stablecoins exacerbate illegal financial activities is countered by advancements in anti-money laundering (AML) technologies and regulatory frameworks [19][20]. - Blockchain technology can be utilized for monitoring stablecoin transactions, enabling regulatory bodies to track the flow of funds effectively [20][21]. - Global AML regulations are evolving to include stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, with specific compliance requirements being established in various jurisdictions [21].

文/清华大学五道口金融学院全球家族企业研究中心主任 高皓 ，清华大学五道口 金融学院全球家族企业研究中心高级研究专员 孙子谋 挪威政府全球养老基金是当前全球范围内管理资产规模最大的主权财富基 金，也是全球股票市场上最大的单一投资者。本文探讨该主权财富基金的 基准投资组合策略及透明治理机制，分析其长期投资框架下的被动敞口管 理，并从大类资产和国别视角出发，对投资进行分析和评价。 挪威政府全球养老基金（Government Pension Fund Global，以下简称GPFG）是当前全球范围内管 理资产规模最大的主权财富基金，也是全球股票市场上最大的单一投资者。截至2025年3月， GPFG资产规模已达1.73万亿美元，所投资的上市公司遍布全球70多个国家和地区，数量超过9000 家。 依据挪威财政部的监管框架，GPFG由挪威央行投资管理部（NBIM）进行运营管理，建立了以股 票和固定收益为核心的基准投资组合配置体系，并将货币风险管理作为全球投资组合管理的关键 环节。GPFG的透明治理机制和严格财政规则，确保了石油收入的跨代公平分配，防止资源繁荣 期过度财政扩张可能带来的经济波动风险。这些特点都使GPFG在全 ...

Group 1 - The demand for Japan's 10-year government bonds has unexpectedly strengthened, providing a boost to the recently volatile bond market, with a key demand indicator reaching a new high since April 2024 [1] - The 10-year government bond futures rose slightly to 139.14 yen, corresponding to a yield decrease of 2.5 basis points to 1.48%, despite rising yields in major global economies [1][4] - The upcoming 30-year government bond auction is seen as a critical test of market sentiment towards ultra-long-term bonds, with traders remaining cautious [1][4] Group 2 - Senior interest rate strategist Miki Den from Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Securities noted that the 1.5% yield level is attractive for allocation funds, which is key to the recovery in demand [4] - However, he warned that the downward yield potential may be limited due to the upcoming 30-year bond issuance, indicating that the market needs to digest the supply pressure from ultra-long-term bonds [4] - The global bond market is currently experiencing a crisis of confidence, with concerns over large fiscal deficits in major economies increasing debt burdens, compounded by the Bank of Japan's gradual exit from large-scale bond purchases [4][5] Group 3 - Recent auction data shows that the subscription multiple for the 2.6 trillion yen 10-year government bonds significantly increased to above the one-year average, despite yields rising over 50 basis points from the 2023 low [5] - The attractiveness of Japanese bonds relative to other developed countries is a primary reason for the influx of allocation funds [5] - The upcoming 30-year bond auction is expected to be a crucial observation point, as its yield has reached the highest level since issuance, which will directly impact global investors' risk assessment of the Japanese bond market [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant shift in attitudes of parents born in the 1970s towards their children's marriage and childbearing choices, moving from intervention to acceptance and support [1][2][3] Group 1: Changes in Parental Attitudes - The marriage registration numbers in China have dropped to 1.81 million pairs in the first quarter of 2025, a decrease of 15.9% compared to the previous year, indicating a trend of young people choosing not to marry or have children [1] - A survey by the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences reveals that 63% of 70s parents have significantly reduced their interference in their children's lives over the past five years, with this figure rising to 78% in first-tier cities [2] - Economic factors are a primary catalyst for this change, with the cost of raising a child estimated at approximately 538,000 yuan, while the average disposable income for residents in 2024 is projected to be 41,300 yuan [2] Group 2: Psychological Mechanisms Behind the Shift - The transition from a sense of responsibility to respecting children's autonomy reflects a broader societal change, with parents increasingly valuing their children's personal choices over traditional expectations [3] - Many parents have experienced a psychological process of moving from hope to disappointment regarding their children's marriage prospects, leading to a state of "learned helplessness" and a strategic retreat from traditional pressures [3] - As 70s parents approach retirement, they are re-evaluating their life goals, often finding new interests and social activities that divert their focus from their children's marital status [3] Group 3: Transformation of Family Dynamics - The shift from a vertical authority structure to a horizontal partnership model in family relationships is evident, with communication evolving from one-way guidance to two-way negotiation [4] - The boundaries of parental roles are being redefined, with children's marriage choices now seen as personal matters, and parents adopting a supportive rather than a decision-making role [5] - This transformation is particularly pronounced in first-tier cities, where approximately 70% of families practicing "letting go" report higher satisfaction in parent-child relationships compared to traditional models [5] Group 4: Implications of the Shift - The collective "letting go" of 70s parents may reduce family conflicts related to marriage and childbearing, promote equality in intergenerational relationships, and create space for new family models [5][6] - However, some parents may experience feelings of loneliness due to excessive detachment, highlighting the need for new intergenerational support systems [5][6] - This phenomenon represents an adaptive adjustment of Chinese families to societal changes, reflecting both economic pressures and profound shifts in values [6]

Group 1 - The recent uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook is driven by the Federal Reserve's unclear policy direction and rising credit risks, leading to a risk-averse market environment [1][10][19] - The Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes highlighted the complex situation of "rising inflation and unemployment," indicating a cautious approach to interest rate cuts while observing economic developments [1][10][11] - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA has intensified global investor concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies, prompting a reassessment of the safety of dollar-denominated assets [1][16][19] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% reflects the anxiety over economic uncertainties, with a focus on the dual risks of rising unemployment and inflation [10][11][14] - The Fed's acknowledgment of the structural causes of persistent inflation, such as supply-demand imbalances and labor market tightness, suggests a complex inflation management strategy moving forward [10][11] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted, with the probability of a rate cut in September reduced to 66.1%, indicating a growing consensus on the need for caution in monetary policy [14] Group 3 - The cautious stance of the Federal Reserve is expected to suppress risk appetite in financial markets, with a notable impact on equities and high-yield bonds, as investors adopt a more conservative outlook [16][19] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is anticipated to rise due to the combination of U.S. credit rating downgrades, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing economic uncertainties, reinforcing its long-term value [16][19] - The overall adjustment in global financial market risk preferences is evident, with traditional risk assets facing significant pressure while gold's appeal as a core hedging asset continues to strengthen [19]

据报道，美国人口与经济第一大州加州州长纽森的一项举动，如巨石投入平静湖面，激起千层浪。他宣布就关税问题起 诉特朗普政府，直言特朗普政府滥用关税政策的行为"违法"，这一行为严重扰乱了美国经济，给美国经济带来了巨大破 坏。 特朗普（资料图） 加州此番起诉绝非心血来潮。作为美国最大的进口州与制造业中心，加州在国际贸易中占据着举足轻重的地位。2024 年，加州进出口总额高达6750亿美元，对墨西哥、加拿大和中国的出口占比达45%。特朗普一系列激进的关税政策，无 疑是对加州经济的沉重打击。供应链中断，原材料成本飙升12%-15%，6万家小企业出口受阻，港口运营陷入瘫痪，农场 主损失惨重，科技公司无奈停工。如此种种，让加州经济伤痕累累，也成为加州起诉特朗普政府的直接导火索。 加州打响的这第一枪，可能只是暴风雨的前奏。鉴于加州在民主党阵营中的影响力，预计其他由民主党控制的州会纷纷 响应，形成一股强大的反对力量。而且，加州的起诉理由直击要害，指出特朗普政府援引《国际紧急经济权力法》单方 面对全球多国加征关税属于"非法越权"。该法原本用于应对国家安全危机，从未被当作关税工具，且并未明确赋予总统 征收关税的权力。倘若美国法院认可 ...

以下文章来源于沧海一土狗 ，作者沧海一土狗 沧海一土狗 . 一名固定收益投资经理关于投资和研究的碎碎念 文章来源于：沧海一土狗 美元和美债的关系，我认为是这样的： 美元是超主权货币，美债是主权债务 。因此，美元是全世界的美元，美债是美国政府的债务。 最近，美国最高法院再一次确认了美联储的独立地位： 当地时间5月22日，美国最高法院裁定，维持对国家劳工关系委员会和功绩制度保护委员会两名董事会成员解雇的决定，同时强调，不同意上述机构提出的论点， 即上诉（legal challenges） "必然涉及对美联储理事会成员或联邦公开市场委员会其他成员因故免职保护的合法性"。 但是，特朗普政府和美联储的冲突依旧存在， 特朗普政府需要主权货币政策 ，需要把美元变成一种主权货币，但是，美元这个坑被美联储提前"占领"了，美元是 一种超主权货币。 也就是说，站在特朗普政府的角度来看， 美元被鸠占鹊巢了 。 如上图所示，对正常主权国家而言， 汇率是一项重要的债务重整手段 。临时性的本币贬值，相当于一次债务重整， 暂缓支付了一部分利息和本金 ，等债务人渡 过难关，本币重新升值，利息和本金照常支付。 显而易见，为了保障美元的超主权货币 ...

Core Viewpoint - The book "The Extreme of the World: The Historical Changes of the Concept of World Hub" by Gao Bo discusses the evolution of the Chinese concept of "Tianxia" (All Under Heaven) and its transformation from the Han to the late Qing dynasty, emphasizing the interaction between ancient Chinese cosmology and modern Western cosmology [2][4][5] Group 1: Conceptual Framework - The title "The Extreme of the World" and the subtitle "World Hub" represent the same issue expressed in different contexts, with "extreme" and "hub" being synonymous in ancient cosmology [4] - The concept of "extreme" encompasses both center and boundary, indicating a dual significance in the historical context of the book [5] - The transformation of the "world hub" concept reflects a continuous pursuit of a unified cosmological view, akin to the ancient idea of "Heaven and Humanity as One" [4][5] Group 2: Historical Context - Gao Bo identifies three cosmological crises in Chinese history, particularly noting the shift in understanding from a fixed cosmological order to one characterized by change and variability during the Tang and Song dynasties [6][7] - The discovery of celestial phenomena and geographical changes during the Tang and Song periods led to a new understanding of the cosmos, challenging previous notions of a stable universe [6][7] - The transition from a fixed cosmological perspective to one that acknowledges change is seen as a critical development in Chinese thought [6][7] Group 3: Modern Implications - The introduction of the infinite universe theory and heliocentrism in modern times posed significant challenges to traditional cosmological views, leading to a crisis in the ancient understanding of the universe [7][8] - The perception of an infinite universe, with its vast temporal and spatial dimensions, disrupts the balance of the triadic relationship between Heaven, Earth, and Humanity [8][9] - The evolution of the concept of "world hub" can be interpreted as a historical narrative of the decline of the traditional cosmological order, with implications for contemporary thought [17][18] Group 4: Cultural Exchange - The interaction between Chinese and Western cosmological ideas during the late Qing period reflects a broader cultural exchange, where Western scientific advancements were integrated into Chinese thought [15][16] - The revival of Buddhist cosmological concepts in the late Qing influenced the understanding of Western cosmology among Chinese intellectuals, leading to a unique synthesis of ideas [21][22] - The notion of a shared fate between East and West emerged, as thinkers like Liao Ping and Kang Youwei sought to reconcile traditional Chinese values with modern Western concepts [15][16]