有色金属周报(碳酸锂) 国产与进口锂精矿价格有所升高， 国家政策引导落后产能出清预期 www.hongyuanqh.com 2025年07月08日 宏源期货 研究所 王文虎 （F03087656，Z0019472） 碳酸锂 供给端：赣锋锂业旗下MaliLithium所属马里Goulamina锂辉石项目一期年产能50.6万吨锂精矿7月已正 式投产，但是国产(进口)锂矿日度价格有所升高(升高)，或使国内锂精矿7月生产(进口)量环比减少(增加)； 江西上高与宜春因天然气管道检修使部分碳酸锂生产企业于7月3日开始检修5-10天或影响1000吨生产 量，中国碳酸锂产能开工率(生产量)较上周下降(减少)，广东浩海锂电6000吨电池级碳酸锂产能或于25年7 月投产，中国碳酸锂(工业与电池级)7月生产量或环比增加(增加、减少)而供给预期偏松；外购锂辉石和锂 云母精矿产碳酸锂日度现金生产成本分别为61700和66500元/吨左右致生产利润为负； 中国冶炼(苛化)法氢氧化锂日度现金生产成本为56900(64600)元/吨且生产利润为正(负)，雅化集团计 划25年底前建成3万吨氢氧化锂产线，或使中国氢氧化锂(冶炼与苛化法)7月生产 ...

民生证券主要观点如下： 近日，根据石化联合会等机构报道，全球最大的苯酚和丙酮生产商英力士，计划永久停止其位于德国格 拉德贝克的苯酚生产基地的生产。该工厂始建于1954年，年产苯酚65万吨，丙酮40万吨，曾是全球最大 的苯酚装置之一。公司将工厂关停的原因归因于欧洲高昂的能源成本和惩罚性的二氧化碳关税政策，导 致欧洲在与中国进口苯酚和全球供应过剩的竞争中丧失了竞争力。 智通财经APP获悉，民生证券发布研报称，近日，根据石化联合会等机构报道，全球最大的苯酚和丙酮 生产商英力士，计划永久停止其位于德国格拉德贝克的苯酚生产基地的生产。英力士将工厂关停的原因 归因于欧洲高昂的能源成本和惩罚性的二氧化碳关税政策，导致欧洲在与中国进口苯酚和全球供应过剩 的竞争中丧失了竞争力。从近5年历史价格周期来看，国内苯酚价格处于探底过程之中。虽然目前苯酚 价格处于历史低位，但随着海外核心苯酚产能因竞争力下降逐步退出市场，有望进一步刺激和拉动国内 企业产销量增长，利好国内苯酚丙酮生产企业业绩改善。 英力士集团董事长吉姆·拉特克利夫爵士评论道："这是欧洲能源竞争力完全缺失以及盲目推行碳税的后 果，这正在导致整个欧洲大陆大规模去工业化。除非监 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | | 近期去产能反内卷政策带动市场情绪转强，预期有所改善。目前铁水产量 区间运行 | | 螺纹钢 | 仍然较高，螺纹产量继续上升，钢材整体出口需求仍然较好。国内需求进 | | | 入淡季，长期偏弱状态并未转变，基差修复背景下行情或区间运行。【3040， | | | 3080】 | | 热卷 | 越南对中国热卷出口反倾销税终裁落地。国内热卷产量小幅上升，表观需 区间运行 | | | 求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平衡，基本面变化不大，前期 | | | 上行主要受市场情绪改善推动，短期表现或进入区间运行。【3060，3200】 | | 铁矿石 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转降，预计后期铁水缓慢下行。供给端发货冲 区间参与 | | | 量结束，到货仍有增量。港口累库，钢厂刚需补库，整体供需结构环比转 | | | 弱。观点：短期区间参与，中期布局空单。【715，740】 | | 焦炭 | 独立焦企产量近期有所回落，但钢厂焦企产量仍然较高。总库存环比下降， 震荡 绝对水平偏高。铁水产量环比上升，对原料需求保障，供需变化不大。短 | | ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 增产压力逐渐上升，短期旺季存支撑。7 月 6 日，沙特、俄罗斯、伊拉克 | | 原油 | 盘整 | 等 8 个 OPEC+国家计划于 8 月份增产 54.8 万桶/日；从供需基本面看， | | | | OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增产，油价供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压 | | | | 力较大。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【500-520】 | | | | 跟随成本端油价盘整。OPEC+加速增产，成本端油价承压；下游化工需求 | | LPG | 盘整 | 有所下降，PDH 开工回落；库存端利好，厂内和港口库存均下降。策略： | | | | 走势偏弱，可轻仓布局空单。PG【4150-4250】 | | | | 社会库存继续累库，下游淡季成交偏弱，远期进口货源增加，华北基差为 -47（环比-5）。近期装置检修加强，新装置暂未释放，供给压力边际缓解， | | L | 空头盘整 | 预计本周产量降至 60.5 万吨。需求淡季，下游刚需拿货为主，关注后续库 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant downturns in the liquor and photovoltaic industries, highlighting the challenges faced by both sectors and the potential conditions for recovery. Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is currently facing three major challenges: weak consumer demand, high inventory levels, and price inversion [9][10]. - Consumer demand is declining, with a shift towards mid-to-low-end products and a weakened correlation with the real estate sector, impacting traditional consumption scenarios [10][11]. - High inventory levels are a result of manufacturers pushing products onto distributors during the pandemic, leading to a "dam" effect where excess stock remains unsold [12][14]. - The valuation bubble that existed during the liquidity peak of 2020-2021 has burst, with the China Liquor Index's PE-TTM ratio previously exceeding 70 times, now facing significant earnings growth declines [15][16]. - Recovery in the liquor sector depends on economic recovery, inventory normalization, and strategic adjustments by companies to target new consumer segments [21][23]. Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to widespread losses across the sector [17]. - Rapid capacity expansion from 2020 to 2022 has resulted in overproduction, with projected capacities far exceeding demand, leading to price crashes across the supply chain [17][18]. - Technological iterations, particularly the shift from PERC to N-type technologies, are intensifying competition and causing old production lines to become obsolete [18]. - The industry faces significant geopolitical risks, including trade barriers and instability in energy policies due to ongoing global conflicts [19][20]. - Conditions for recovery in the photovoltaic sector are clearer, with expectations for capacity reduction and stabilization of prices by 2025, alongside potential technological advancements [25][26]. Market Divergence and Potential Risks - Optimistic views suggest that the worst may be over for both industries, with opportunities emerging as pessimistic expectations are priced in [27][32]. - Cautious perspectives highlight the lack of substantial improvement in fundamentals, warning against premature investments [28][33]. - Key risks include macroeconomic uncertainties, slow capacity clearance, deteriorating overseas markets, and uncertainties in technological advancements [34][35][36][37]. Long-term Outlook - Both industries are undergoing painful adjustments as they transition towards higher quality development, with the liquor sector focusing on brand enhancement and the photovoltaic sector on technological leadership [38][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies involved in the phenol industry, specifically recommending companies such as Weiyuan Co., Huayi Group, Sinochem International, and Wanhua Chemical [4][5]. Core Insights - The domestic phenol industry is expected to recover as overseas production capacity is being shut down, particularly in Europe, due to high energy costs and carbon tax policies [2][3]. - Domestic phenol prices are currently at their lowest since June 2023, with an average price of 6,562 RMB/ton in July 2025, compared to historical averages of 8,859 RMB/ton in 2021 and 10,023 RMB/ton in 2022 [1][2]. - The effective production capacity of domestic phenol has increased significantly from 3.33 million tons/year in 2021 to 6.57 million tons/year in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.43% [2]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average price of domestic phenol in the first half of 2025 is projected to be 7,026 RMB/ton, indicating a downward trend from previous years [1]. - Historical price data shows a significant decline from 10,023 RMB/ton in 2022 to 7,914 RMB/ton in 2024 [1]. Production Capacity and Consumption - Domestic phenol production capacity growth has slowed, with a CAGR of 3.57% expected in 2024, down from 37.99% between 2021 and 2023 [2]. - Apparent consumption of domestic phenol has increased from 3.08 million tons in 2021 to 5.24 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 19.37% [2]. Import and Export Dynamics - Domestic phenol imports have decreased significantly from 522,300 tons in 2021 to 249,600 tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of -21.82% [2]. - Exports have also declined from 135,100 tons in 2021 to 79,100 tons in 2024, although a notable increase of 184.81% is expected in 2024 [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the exit of overseas phenol production capacity will likely boost domestic production and sales, benefiting companies in the sector [3]. - Key companies to watch include Weiyuan Co. (440,000 tons/year), Huayi Group (160,000 tons/year), Wanhua Chemical (400,000 tons/year), and Sinochem International (400,000 tons/year) [3].

市场供求关系，是引导大宗商品价格波动的主旋律。近年来，伴随下游需求回落，钢铁、水泥等商品 价格震荡下行，行业利润也随之跌至谷底。"反内卷"政策引导下，减产限产"保利润"正成为不少行业 企业的共识。 证券时报记者近日采访获悉，7月1日，中国水泥协会发布《关于进一步推动水泥行业"反内卷""稳增长"高 质量发展工作的意见》（下称《意见》）。山东、四川两水泥大省汛期错峰生产正在落地。在钢铁生产重 镇唐山，企业正推进硬减排措施，对多种装置减产、停产。 行业发力"反内卷" "当前'反内卷'的自律意识逐步提升并落地，公司总体对下半年行业发展趋势抱有信心。"7月1日，上峰水 泥在投资者关系平台上回复相关问题时称。 7月1日，中国水泥协会发布的《意见》提出，所有会员企业要"深刻认识产能置换政策对于促进水泥行业 结构优化、转型升级的重要意义"。水泥大省山东、四川的汛期错峰生产计划则明确，7月份将分别停窑20 天、15天。 兰格钢铁研究中心主任王国清介绍，唐山市钢铁企业将在7月4日至15日期间执行硬减排措施。在保证安全 和煤气平衡的前提下，原则上从控转炉（小转炉40分钟/大转炉60分钟，全天）开始，高炉采取对应的减 产措施（高炉休 ...

Group 1 - The influx of Generation Z investors has significantly changed the structure of the investor base, with those under 30 now accounting for 30% of the market, doubling since September 2024 [3] - Many young investors, including those from the Z generation, are experiencing a steep learning curve in the stock market, often facing significant losses and gaining insights through real trading experiences [3][16] - A survey revealed that 72% of young investors have only been involved in stock trading for about a year, indicating a relatively inexperienced investor demographic [2][3] Group 2 - Individual experiences highlight the transition from overconfidence to a more grounded understanding of market dynamics, as investors like Xiao Li and Li Yan faced substantial losses that reshaped their investment strategies [4][5][12] - The importance of adapting investment strategies based on market conditions and personal experiences is emphasized, with many young investors learning to balance technical analysis with macroeconomic factors [5][15] - The survey results indicate that 73.78% of Generation Z investors plan to increase their stock investments in the coming year, with a strong emphasis on the importance of emotional regulation in trading [16]

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：宏观因素扰动 盘面震荡加剧 投资咨询业务资格： 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 进口端，近期蒙煤通关保持相对低位，口岸库存稳步下降。另外 7 月 11 日-15 日因蒙古那达慕大会影响，口岸短暂闭关。 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 8 日 逻辑：昨日，美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税" 暂缓期，将实施时间从 7 月 9 日推迟到 8 月 1 日；另外已对 14 个国家发 出最新的关税税率威胁，影响市场偏弱运行。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 目前安全生产月结束，叠加 ...

请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 l 证券研究报告 l 行业研究丨深度报告丨建材 掘金存量, 另辟成长 建材行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 随着存量需求登场，消费建材需求发生质变，有望驱动行业需求回到历史前高水平，同时优化 下游需求结构，使得建材的消费品特征日趋显著，首推商业模式最优且稀缺成长的三棵树。非 洲是产能出海的沃土，建材先行，非洲本土龙头的价值被低估，看好科达制造、华新水泥、西 部水泥。国产替代链链条看好特种玻纤、工业涂料等，特种玻纤龙头中材科技受益 AI 算力需求 增长，工业涂料龙头麦加芯彩的弹性来自船舶涂料的从 0 到 1。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 范超 张佩 李金宝 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490516040002 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BVZ972 李浩 董超 SAC：S0490520080026 SAC：S0490523030002 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 44 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 ...