申万期货原油甲醇策略日报-20250514 申银万国期货研究所 董超 （从业编号F3030150 交易咨询号Z0012596） dongchao@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | 原油 | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 前日收盘价 | 479.5 | 470.5 | 61.96 | 61.53 | 66.60 | 66.10 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 482.3 | 472.6 | 61.06 | 60.58 | 64.99 | 64.55 | | | 涨跌 | -2.8 | -2.1 | 0.90 | 0.95 | 1.61 | 1.55 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.58% | -0.44% | 1.47% | 1.57% | 2.48% | 2.40% | | | 成交量 | 77,046 | 52,260 | 290,296 | 223,289 | 417,955 | 270,581 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - In April 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, with urban prices stable and rural prices down by 0.3% [1] Group 1: Year-on-Year Price Changes - In April, food and tobacco prices increased by 0.3%, contributing approximately 0.07 percentage points to the CPI [2] - Fresh fruit prices rose by 5.2%, impacting the CPI by about 0.11 percentage points; aquatic product prices increased by 1.5%, contributing 0.03 percentage points; and meat prices rose by 0.6%, adding 0.02 percentage points, with pork prices specifically increasing by 5.0%, contributing 0.06 percentage points [2] - Fresh vegetable prices decreased by 5.0%, negatively impacting the CPI by about 0.10 percentage points, while grain prices fell by 1.4%, contributing a decrease of 0.02 percentage points [2] - Among other categories, prices for other goods and services, clothing, and education/culture/recreation rose by 6.6%, 1.3%, and 0.7% respectively, while transportation and communication prices decreased by 3.9% [2] Group 2: Month-on-Month Price Changes - In April, food and tobacco prices increased by 0.2%, contributing approximately 0.05 percentage points to the CPI [5] - Fresh fruit prices rose by 2.2%, impacting the CPI by about 0.05 percentage points; aquatic product prices increased by 1.2%, contributing 0.02 percentage points; while fresh vegetable prices fell by 1.8%, negatively affecting the CPI by 0.04 percentage points [5] - Other categories saw price increases in other goods and services, education/culture/recreation, and healthcare by 2.4%, 0.4%, and 0.2% respectively, while housing and living goods/services prices remained stable [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that India's manufacturing inflation in April increased by 2.62% year-on-year [1] - The wholesale food price index in April rose by 2.55% year-on-year [1] - The wholesale price index inflation rate for April was recorded at 0.85%, which was below market expectations of 1.76% [1]

编辑：熊思怡 彭博社指出，尽管通胀数据略好于预期，但有经济学家表示，受关税影响，进口商品价格开始上涨只 是"时间问题"。 路透社援引美国Annex财富管理公司首席经济学家布莱恩·雅各布森(Brian Jacobsen)分析称，尽管通胀数 据好于预期，但有指标显示，关税已将物价推高。 雅各布森认为，为关税冲突降温是好事，因为关税对价格的影响将很快渗透到消费品价格，"与中国贸 易关系重置，或许意味着美联储可以恢复如常，并在今年晚些时候逐步恢复降息。" 来源：中国新闻网 耶鲁大学预算实验室：美国平均关税水平仍为1934年来最高 中新网5月14日电(张乃月)近期中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，市场反应积极。不过，据美国消费 者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)报道，耶鲁大学预算实验室估测，即便考虑到近期美国的关税调整，美国对 进口产品征收的平均关税税率仍高达17.8%，是1934年以来的最高水平。 分析指出，这一税率，相较于特朗普第二任期前的平均有效关税税率水平提高了15.4个百分点。报告 称，现行的关税政策预计将在"短期内"给普通美国家庭增加2800美元的成本。 此外，美国劳工部当地时间13日发布的数据显示，美国4月份消费 ...

5月13日，长江日报记者从国家统计局武汉调查队获悉，4月份武汉市居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.4%，环比持平，彰显消费 活力与韧性。 "整体来看，武汉市CPI温和波动，呈现稳中向好态势。"国家统计局武汉调查队相关负责人介绍，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比 上涨0.6%。构成CPI的八大类商品及服务价格中，除交通通信价格下降外，其他七大类价格均同比上涨，居民消费需求恢复的态势进一步 巩固。 调查统计数据显示，从同比看，其他用品及服务价格上涨6.3%，教育文化娱乐价格上涨2.3%，衣着价格上涨2.1%，居住、医疗保健价 格均上涨0.4%，食品烟酒、生活用品及服务价格均上涨0.3%；交通通信价格下降3.5%。 | 大类 | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | | 食品烟酒 | 持平 | 0. 3% | | 衣着 | -0. 5% | +2. 1% | | 居住 | +0. 1% | +0. 4% | | 生活用品及服务 | -0. 1% | +0. 3% | | 交通通信 | -0. 5% | -3. 5% | | 教育文化娱乐 | +0. 4% | +2. 3% | | 医疗健 ...

金十数据5月14日讯，据国家统计局天津调查总队14日最新消息，今年4月，天津市居民消费价格指数 （CPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比上涨0.2%。1至4月CPI与上年同期持平。 （上证报） 天津：4月CPI环比上涨0.1% ...

Core Viewpoint - The newly released "China Import Consumer Goods Price Index" indicates a dual growth trend in both month-on-month and year-on-year prices for imported consumer goods, reflecting the ongoing increase in consumption and the importance of imported goods in enhancing consumer quality of life [1][2]. Group 1: Import Consumer Goods Price Index - The March index shows a month-on-month increase of 7.2% to 107.2 and a year-on-year increase of 5.2% to 105.2 [1]. - The index is crucial for tracking price changes in imported consumer goods, which have not been independently monitored before [4]. - The index covers seven categories and 1,831 HS codes, providing a comprehensive view of consumer goods across six major consumption areas [4]. Group 2: Economic Significance of Import Expansion - Expanding imports is a key component of China's high-level opening-up strategy and has become a national priority [2]. - In 2024, China's import scale is projected to reach 18.39 trillion yuan, maintaining its position as the world's second-largest importer for 16 consecutive years [2]. - The growth in imported consumer goods is seen as a reflection of domestic market potential and a necessary outcome of consumption upgrades [2][3]. Group 3: Trends in Consumer Behavior - There is a structural transformation in imported consumer goods, with a dual drive from essential goods and high-end products [7]. - The demand for basic necessities like meat and fruits has stabilized at an import growth rate of around 8%, while high-end categories have seen a compound growth rate exceeding 25% [7]. - Digital technologies are reshaping trade ecosystems, enhancing efficiency and consumer experience in the import market [7]. Group 4: Cross-Border E-commerce Growth - Cross-border e-commerce has emerged as a significant growth engine for imports, with a 10.8% increase in 2024, accounting for 6% of total imports [5]. - The establishment of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones is expected to further enhance import efficiency and market access [6]. - The expansion of the cross-border e-commerce product list and reduced approval times are contributing to lower import costs and increased consumer benefits [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The transition from scale expansion to quality upgrading in the import consumer goods market is driven by both international trade dynamics and evolving consumer demands [8]. - Predictions indicate that by 2030, cumulative imports from developing countries could exceed 8 trillion USD, presenting significant opportunities for global markets [8].

美联储主席鲍威尔在政策会议后表示，关税因素已推升短期通胀预期，并强调当前处于政策观察期。据 CME FedWatch工具显示，6月降息25个基点的概率已从月初的34%降至15%，反映市场对宽松政策的押 注显著回落。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 昨日国际银价承压低开低走，盘中接连跌破布林线中轨及30日均线两道关键技术支撑，空头动能显著增 强。从技术指标来看，MACD快慢线死叉向下发散，绿柱动能持续放大，KDJ随机指标同步呈现空头排 列，显示短期下行趋势仍未见明显反转信号。 今日周二（5月13日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于33.08一线上方，今日开盘于32.59美元/盎司，截至 发稿，国际白银暂报33.00美元/盎司，上涨1.24%，最高触及33.08元/盎司，最低下探32.51美元/盎司， 目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 根据预测，美国4月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比增幅或维持2.4%，与3月持平；剔除波动较大的食品和 能源后的核心CPI同比涨幅预计持稳于2.8%。按月度环比测算，CPI及核心CPI均可能上升0.3%。 分析师提示需重点监测"超级核心通胀"（核心服务扣除住房）指标。该指标 ...

Group 1: CPI and PPI Trends - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from a month-on-month decline of 0.4% to an increase of 0.1%, while the year-on-year CPI decreased by 0.1%, maintaining the same decline as the previous month [1] - The core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and rose by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating stable growth [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][4] Group 2: Influencing Factors on Prices - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in food and travel service prices, with food prices up by 0.2% month-on-month, exceeding seasonal levels by 1.4 percentage points [2] - International commodity price declines, particularly in oil and gas, have negatively impacted domestic prices, contributing to the PPI's downward trend [1][4] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies has led to a decrease in international crude oil and metal prices, which has been transmitted to domestic industries [4][5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts expect PPI to remain under pressure due to tariff issues, while CPI may experience a mild recovery driven by demand rebound and seasonal food price stabilization [1][5] - The implementation of macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment is anticipated to positively influence certain sectors, leading to price increases in high-tech industries [5] - Despite external pressures, domestic policies are expected to support a reasonable price level, with a slight narrowing of PPI's year-on-year decline projected for the second quarter [5]

国家统计局5月10日公布的数据显示，4月，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降0.1%。 工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，同比下降2.7%。4月CPI环比由降转涨，同比降幅与上 月相同，核心CPI涨幅稳定，PPI环比降幅与上月相同，部分工业行业价格同比继续呈现稳中向好走 势。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读4月份CPI和PPI数据时表示，虽然国际输入性因素对部分行业 价格产生了一定的下拉影响，但我国经济基础稳、韧性强，各项宏观政策协同发力，高质量发展扎实推 进，部分领域价格呈现积极变化。 对此，刘晓艺认为，在全球关税政策纷争影响下，外需冲击开始显现，上游的价格压力进一步传导至中 游的原材料价格。 "4月，生产者购进价格指数同比下跌2.7%，较上月跌幅扩大0.3个百分点，环比下降0.6%，较上月跌幅 扩大0.4个百分点。从分项指标来看，各分项指标环比跌多涨少，仅有色金属材料类价格环比出现上 涨。"刘晓艺表示，具体来看，受美国"对等关税"政策影响，4月国内煤炭开采和黑色金属矿采选业价格 环比延续下跌，宏观情绪扰动下原油价格回落致油气开采业价格涨幅收窄，有色金属矿采选业价格环 ...