| | | | | | | | 发布日期: 2025/07 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | W 分格号: F025 V 行业板块 | | 品种 | | 趋势研判 | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | | | | 短期内,市场成交量逐步小幅萎缩,加上国内外利多因素平平, | | | | | | 股指 | | | 股指向上突破存在阻力,或呈现震荡格局,后续关注宏观增量信 息对股指方向的指引。C | | | | 宏观金融 | | 国债 | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | | | | Fift | 震荡 | | 空间。 市场不确定性仍存,金价短期料震荡为主,关注关税进展。G | | | | | | 白银 | 農汤 | | 关税不确定性仍存,银价料震荡为主。 | | | | | | 월미 | 看答 | | 美国非农大超预期,打压降息预期,叠加海外挤仓风险有所降 温,铜价存在回调风险。 | | | | | | | | | 美联储降息预期降温,叠加高价压制下游需求,铝价存在回落风 | | ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 7 月 8 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-8） | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石盘面受情绪影响低位反弹，矿山季末冲量基本结束，澳 洲和巴西发运量均有一定程度下降，近端到港量也环比下行。产业端淡季， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 五大钢材产量增，铁水淡季不淡，铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，240 以上的 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 高铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水见顶情况。供给侧改革消息扰 | | | | | 动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。中长期看，铁矿石中长期 | | | | | 看整体呈现供应逐步回升、需求相对低位、港口库存步入累库通道的局面， | | | | | 供需过剩格局不变，介于短期情绪扰动，建议前期空单离场观望。 | | | | | 煤焦：供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。 | | | | | 消息面传出部分地区焦企或将复产，临汾地区部分停产煤矿将陆续复产， | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 煤焦市场供应有望回升 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 谁卷？谁赢？——反内卷行业比较 2025年7月8日 证券分析师：姚 佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 证券分析师：丁炎晨 执业编号：S0360523070005 邮箱：dingyanchen@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 谁卷？谁赢？——反内卷行业比较 证 券 研 究 报 告 ┃ 摘要 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 • 7/1中央财经委会议聚焦供给侧优化和"反内卷"竞争，参考2015-2016年供给侧改革经验，后续相关产业有望出台具体方案。 • "反内卷"重点行业：高库存、高CAPEX、低产能利用率、价格水平低。从库存、CAPEX、产能利用率、价格水平4个角度筛选当前"内卷" 程度更高的行业，也是下半年政策发力的重点领域。周期：化工（化学制品、橡胶、非金属材料），有色（能源金属等），煤炭，钢铁（普钢、 冶钢原 ...

Core Viewpoint - The healthcare landscape in Foshan is undergoing significant transformation driven by competition among public hospitals, private capital, and external players, focusing on patient acquisition, talent, and resource allocation [1][7]. Group 1: Expansion of Healthcare Resources - Over the past five years, the number of beds in Foshan's tertiary hospitals has increased by over 40%, highlighting a rapid expansion of healthcare resources [3]. - The new Green Island Lake campus of the Second Municipal Hospital, with an investment of 3.375 billion and 1,200 beds, aims to address the healthcare needs of 550,000 residents in the western region of Foshan [3]. - The strategy of "westward expansion" has become a common approach among Foshan's tertiary hospitals, with various institutions collaborating to enhance regional emergency response capabilities [4]. Group 2: Challenges in Healthcare Efficiency - The competition has led to inefficiencies and a struggle for balance between expansion and survival among local leading hospitals [4]. - The First Municipal Hospital's management has expressed concerns over resource allocation, as the emergency department faces increased patient volume due to ineffective referrals from grassroots facilities [4]. - The current healthcare model shows a disparity where primary care accounts for 57.96% of total diagnoses, falling short of the 65% target for 2025 [4]. Group 3: Talent Acquisition and Competition - The competition for top medical talent has intensified, with hospitals offering substantial financial incentives, such as 300,000 yuan in living and housing subsidies for experts [5]. - The trend of medical professionals moving to grassroots hospitals for greater autonomy reflects a shift in career aspirations away from traditional tertiary institutions [5]. - Private capital is also entering the talent acquisition battle, with institutions like Heyou Hospital customizing career paths for healthcare professionals [5]. Group 4: Innovative Survival Strategies for Grassroots Hospitals - Grassroots hospitals are developing unique survival strategies to thrive amidst competition, focusing on localized capabilities rather than merely chasing tertiary hospital ratings [6]. - Zhangcha Hospital has seen an 800% increase in traditional Chinese medicine services by leveraging community health stations [6]. - The establishment of the Foshan University Affiliated Third Hospital through the merger of three district-level hospitals aims to enhance resource integration [6]. Group 5: The Role of Private Capital - The healthcare sector in Foshan is experiencing a dichotomy, with small private institutions struggling while larger private entities leverage technology to reshape industry dynamics [7]. - Heyou Hospital's investment of 10 billion yuan in non-profit healthcare, utilizing AI throughout the treatment process, challenges the perception that private healthcare is synonymous with high costs [7]. - The success of Zen Medical in becoming a leading non-public hospital demonstrates the importance of combining technological capabilities with high-quality service to rebuild patient trust [7]. Group 6: Future of Healthcare in Foshan - The ultimate success of Foshan's healthcare landscape will depend on balancing public welfare with efficiency, expansion with equity, and competition with collaboration [7]. - The ability to provide accessible and suitable healthcare services to every citizen will determine the effectiveness of the healthcare highland being developed in Foshan [7].

本次反内卷行情，出清的主要目标不是落后产能和国企扎堆的钢铁煤炭，而是有大量民企参与，关系地 方就业税收的制造业和平台（例如光伏、汽车、电商、水泥、养猪等）；虽然第一波行情会直接炒预 期，但后续如果想类似16-17年的煤炭股有第二波、第三波大主升，政策落地情况需要验证，产业供需 格局需要看到实质的好转。 此外，资本市场有很强的学习效应，有了16-17年的供给侧改革行情、2020-2024年煤炭股"碳中和"行情 的经验，股价的反应越来越提前，各段主升的时间可能会进一步缩短，涨幅集中在"鱼头"，建议提前把 握政策机会。 钢铁板块日内震荡回升，柳钢股份封涨停走出6天5板，太钢不锈、华菱钢铁等成分股跟涨。钢铁场内品 种稀缺，钢铁LOF（502023）盘中上涨1.41%。 关联产品： 消息面上依然是中央财经委员会第六次会议强调纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，依法治理低价无序竞争 并推动落后产能有序退出，叠加唐山烧结机限产传闻，若产能退出政策落地将有利于行业利润修复， 2025年1-6月钢铁行业综合毛利润同比提升52.45%至281元/吨；长江证券则认为25年底是去产能政策落 地关键节点，中小民营企业达标难度较大，根据《202 ...

国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————供需政策平衡中 袁方1张端怡2 魏薇（联系人）3 2025 年 7 月 8 日 内容提要 基于我国上一轮供给侧改革经验，大范围、大幅度的去产能意味着生产要素 成本快速下降，亏损企业快速出清，头部企业整合资源提升竞争力，价格有望逐 步企稳。虽然短期内面临的困难较大，但长期而言有助于改善行业生产效率、推 动价格回升、提振企业与居民部门信心。 第 1 页，共 10 页 2025 年 7 月 国投证券宏观定期报告 一、""反内卷""V.S."生育补贴"：供需政策再平衡 考虑到当前我国面临新旧动能转换，本次供给侧调整幅度与上轮相比可能 较为温和，但所需时间或更长，所涉行业范围或更广。 当前主动信贷扩张、资产价格的上涨对基本面的影响无疑处于偏早期阶段。 不过近期"反内卷"政策的出台可能意味着基本面的预期在改善。未来权益市场 的变化需要关注主动信贷扩张的进程，即政府债务扩张的延续性以及对居民、企 业部门的扩散。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 1宏观团队负责人，yuanfang@essence.co ...

Group 1 - BYD Energy signed a cooperation framework agreement with State Grid Hunan Zongneng on July 3, 2025, focusing on distributed energy storage [1] - Anhui Anwa New Energy launched the world's first GWh-level new solid-state battery production line on July 4, achieving an energy density exceeding 300Wh/kg and passing safety tests [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments issued a document on July 7 to promote the construction of green data centers, emphasizing the use of efficient energy-saving equipment and active utilization of energy storage technology [1] Group 2 - Huaxi Securities noted that the oversupply issue in the photovoltaic industry has been adequately recognized, with policy expectations improving, and the silicon material segment is expected to benefit first [1] - BC batteries are gaining a premium advantage due to high efficiency, and costs are expected to decrease further due to the application of cheap metal solutions [1] - Offshore wind power has made breakthroughs in large-scale equipment and domestic component production, leading to a significant reduction in levelized cost of electricity and clear industry growth potential [1] Group 3 - The acceleration of UHV (Ultra High Voltage) construction will promote the approval and commencement of multiple transmission channels by 2025, significantly benefiting core equipment manufacturers [1] - In the electric vehicle sector, the maturity of new technologies like solid-state batteries, combined with vehicle replacement policies, is expected to sustain sales growth and stabilize the industry chain [1] - In the energy storage sector, European household storage depletion is nearing completion, and industrial and commercial storage is entering a fast track under price mechanisms and subsidy policies, showing clear signs of demand recovery [1] Group 4 - The ChiNext New Energy ETF by Guotai tracks the Innovation Energy Index, which can have a daily fluctuation of up to 20% [2] - The index, compiled by China Securities Index Co., focuses on upstream and downstream enterprises in the new energy industry chain, including solar, wind, and nuclear energy [2] - The latest fluctuation of the Innovation Energy Index is 2.98%, reflecting the market performance of the new energy sector [2]

东海证券指出，超长期特别国债资金支持陆续落地，石化化工等设备更新有望加速，此举有助于石化化 工等行业供给侧结构进一步优化，落后产能有望进一步出清，头部企业具有资金和技术优势，有望优先 受益。国内政策端对供给侧要求频繁提及；海外方面，上涨的原料成本叠加亚洲产能冲击，欧美化工企 业近期多经历关停、产能退出等事件。 短期来看，地缘摩擦反复，海外化工供应不确定性有所增加；长期来看，我国化工产业链竞争优势明 显，凭借显著的成本优势和不断突破的技术实力，中国化工企业正迅速填补国际供应链的空白，有望重 塑全球化工产业格局。此外，随着消费电子领域龙头企业自主研发和创新能力增强，有望带动国产产业 链良性循环，激发材料领域高端化发展。化工新材料整体自给率约56%，产业正迎来加速的发展机遇 期。 化工龙头ETF跟踪的是细分化工指数，该指数由中证指数有限公司编制，从沪深市场中选取涉及化学原 料、化学制品等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映化工行业细分领域的整体表现。细分化工指 数聚焦于化工产业链的各个环节，包括化肥、农药、涂料、塑料等细分领域，具有较强的行业代表性， 适合关注化工行业投资机会的投资者。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不 ...

关联产品： 光伏ETF基金（159863），联接基金（A类 021084，C类 021085，I类 022862） 关联个股： 阳光电源（300274）、隆基绿能（601012）、TCL科技（000100）、特变电工（600089）、通威股份 （600438）、TCL中环（002129）、正泰电器（601877）、晶科能源（688223）、晶澳科技 （002459）、天合光能（688599） 截至07月08日13:39，光伏ETF基金(159863.SZ)上涨5.08%，主要成分股中，阳光电源上涨8.98%，隆基 绿能上涨6.08%，通威股份上涨10.00%，大全能源上涨14.84%，特变电工上涨3.02%。 消息面上：有传言硅料没有指导价，不能低于各自的完全成本销售。政策上再度重申"供给侧预期再 起"。光伏行业出清目前可分为财务出清、政策出清、技术出清三条路径。 预计Q3还将面临国内需求挑 战+7月多晶硅产量目前市场预期环比提升，届时将形成产业链价格大底，对长周期资金来说，行业具 备左侧布局机会。 中信证券策略团队指出当前市场环境与2014年底相似，投资者在产业赛道已积累赚钱效应，政策预期趋 稳，反内卷和提 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a strong performance in the photovoltaic sector, with the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index rising by 5.02% and several key stocks, such as Daqo New Energy and Tongwei Co., experiencing significant gains [1] - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing challenges including supply-demand balance, price declines, and profit pressures, with supply-side reforms and anti-involution policies being key factors influencing supply and demand [1] - Policy support is expected to alleviate pressures in the industry chain, with potential measures including raising industry standards and supporting the development of new battery technologies like perovskite [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index account for 55.39% of the index, with notable companies including Sungrow Power Supply, LONGi Green Energy, and TCL Technology [2] - The photovoltaic ETF fund closely tracks the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index, which selects up to 50 representative listed companies involved in the photovoltaic industry chain [1]