有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | | 点评 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | | | | | | 隔夜 铜下跌 0.45%至 9725 美元/吨；SHFE | LME | | | 铜主力下跌 | 0.13%至 | 79030 元/吨；国 | | | 内现货进口持续亏损。宏观方面，美联储调查显示，5 | | | | | | 月美国消费者对未来通胀的预 | | | 期全面下降，为 2024 年来首次，消费者信心有所改善。另外美商务部长称谈判进展 | | | | | | | | | 顺利。国内方面，中国 5 月 CPI 同比降 0.1%，环比由增转降，PPI | | | | | | 同比降幅扩大至 | | | 3.3%；中国 5 月按美元计出口同比增长 4.8%，进口下降 3.4%。库存方面，LME | | | | | | 铜下 | | | 降 吨至 120400 吨；Comex 铜增加 | 2000 | 1102 | 吨至 | 173215 | ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.5% last week, driven by signs of easing in the US-China trade war[11] - The Nasdaq 100 increased by 2.0%, while the Russell 2000 saw a rise of 3.2%[11] - The trade war has shown signs of thawing, with a meeting between US and Chinese officials being viewed as a significant step towards negotiations[11] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US consumer confidence index surged from 85.7 in April to 98 in May, marking the first increase since November of the previous year[20] - The April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%[25] - The unemployment rate slightly increased from 4.187% in April to 4.244% in May, indicating a rise in joblessness despite a modest increase in non-farm payrolls[35] Group 3: Market Risks - There is a persistent trend of de-dollarization in global liquidity, as investors show reduced confidence in US dollar assets[16] - The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in May, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector for the third consecutive month[41] - The forecast for S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) has been revised downwards by approximately 4.0% in April and May, reflecting concerns over inflation and tariffs[46]

中国日报网6月10日电 综合外媒报道，根据美国劳工部6月5日发布的数据，截至5月31日当周，美国初次申请失业救济的人数 攀升至24.7万人，不仅超出分析人士的预期，更创下过去八个月来的最高值。 路透社报道截图 美国全国广播公司华盛顿地方频道（NBC Washington）的报道称，每周首次申领失业救济的人数被视为裁员风向标。尽管特 朗普政府的部分关税威胁已暂停或降低，但市场仍担心关税引发的全球经济放缓可能颠覆美国的就业市场。 美国全国广播公司华盛顿地方频道报道截图 此外，不少企业近期发布财报时也普遍下调了2025年的销售和盈利预期，或者直接取消了业绩指引，其中的原因多数都归咎 于特朗普政府密集又反复无常的关税政策。 5月初，美联储连续第三次将基准利率维持在4.3%。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，失业率与通胀率同时上升的风险加剧，这种非常 态的组合使美联储控制物价和失业率的双重任务变得更趋复杂。他还特别强调，政府的关税政策已令消费者信心与企业预期 受到了打击。 据报道，特朗普政府试图通过大幅提高进口关税来重振制造业，但上周早些时候发布的政府数据显示，4月份美国职位空缺数 上升，同时多项指标表明民众对就业市场信心减弱。 ...

经济学家普遍预计关税将推高通胀，净占比31%的小企业表示计划在未来三个月内涨价，为一年多来的 最高水平。定于周三公布的消费者价格指数(CPI)预计将显示，剔除食品和能源价格后的5月核心通胀有 所上升。 智通财经APP获悉，美国小企业信心在2025年5月迎来今年首次回升，企业对经济前景的乐观情绪有所 升温。美国独立企业联合会(NFIB)周二公布的数据显示，其乐观指数攀升3点至98.8，调查涵盖的10项 指标中有7项改善，主要得益于企业对经营环境和实际销售的预期好转。 尽管如此，不确定性指数同步上升，凸显出唐纳德·特朗普总统关税政策的落地过程坎坷，以及其标志 性税收法案在国会推进时引发的额外争议。调查显示，税收问题自2020年底以来首次成为企业面临的首 要难题。 NFIB首席经济学家比尔·邓克尔伯格(Bill Dunkelberg)在声明中指出："尽管5月信心略有回升，但小企业 主的不确定性仍然高企。" 此次信心指数反弹终结了过去十年中持续时间最长的下跌周期之一，且恰逢贸易紧张局势普遍缓和—— 中美暂停实施极端关税措施，双方正尝试通过谈判达成更持久的解决方案并解决其他贸易问题。 这一临时协议或为企业投资注入信心， ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the concept of "Sputnik Moment" in various sectors, particularly focusing on the need for a similar moment in Chinese consumer confidence, which has been lacking despite advancements in other industries [1][14]. Group 1: Biotechnology and Pharmaceuticals - CanSino Biologics' PD-1/VEGF dual antibody "Yivolumab" achieved a significant milestone by outperforming the global leader "K drug" in clinical trials, marking a leading position for China in the dual antibody sector [5]. - The proportion of large pharmaceutical companies engaging in significant transactions with Chinese biotech firms has surged from less than 5% before 2019 to 31% in 2024, indicating a growing recognition of China's biotech capabilities [6]. Group 2: Aerospace and Defense - China successfully conducted test flights of two sixth-generation fighter jets on December 26, 2024, marking a significant breakthrough in global aviation technology and establishing China as the first country to achieve this feat [7][8]. - The successful test flights signify a new phase in the competition for air combat dominance, with advanced features such as all-aspect stealth and AI integration [7][8]. Group 3: Artificial Intelligence - DeepSeek's R1 model achieved performance comparable to OpenAI's GPT-3 at a fraction of the training cost, leading to a significant drop in Nvidia's stock price and highlighting a pivotal moment in the AI sector [9]. - The advancements in AI technology from Chinese companies are prompting a reevaluation of strategies in the U.S. tech landscape, as noted by prominent venture capitalists [9]. Group 4: Automotive Industry - In 2024, China exported nearly 6 million vehicles, significantly outpacing Japan's 4 million, with BYD emerging as the largest brand for pure electric vehicles globally [10][11]. - The automotive sector is undergoing rapid changes, with Chinese brands like BYD and Geely ranking among the top ten global automotive brands, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [11]. Group 5: Consumer Confidence and Economic Challenges - Consumer confidence in China has been declining, with significant increases in household savings and deflationary pressures observed [3][14]. - The decline in consumer confidence can be traced back to several factors, including geopolitical tensions, the real estate crisis, and the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns [15][18][20]. - The article emphasizes the need for measures to stabilize the real estate market and enhance consumer confidence to stimulate domestic consumption [24][25].

智通财经6月10日电，美国5月NFIB小型企业信心指数报98.8，预期95.9，前值95.8。 ...

Core Insights - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May is set to be released shortly, indicating potential shifts in small business sentiment and economic outlook [1] Group 1 - The upcoming release of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is significant for understanding the confidence levels among small enterprises [1]

Core Insights - The Sentix Investor Confidence Index for the Eurozone in June is reported at 0.2, significantly better than the expected -6 and the previous value of -8.1 [1] Summary by Category - **Investor Confidence** - The current index stands at 0.2, indicating a positive shift in investor sentiment compared to the forecasted -6 [1] - The previous month's index was -8.1, showing a notable improvement in confidence levels [1]

欧元区6月Sentix投资者信心指数为0.2，预期为-6，前值为-8.1。 ...

Group 1 - The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for June is set to be released shortly [1]