摘要 根据 Wind 数据，折价成交个券中，"22 遵桥 05"债券估值价格偏离幅度较大。净价上涨成交个券中，"20 万科 08" 估值价格偏离程度靠前。净价上涨成交二永债中，"23 华兴银行二级资本债 01"估值价格偏离幅度较大；净价上涨成 交商金债中，"24 珠海农商"估值价格偏离幅度靠前。成交收益率高于 10%的个券中，地产债排名靠前。 信用债估值收益变动主要分布在(0,5]区间。非金信用债成交期限主要分布在 0.5 年内，其中 3 至 4 年期品种折价成 交占比最高；二永债成交期限主要分布在 4 至 5 年，其中 1.5 年内品种折价成交占比最高。分行业看，汽车行业的债 券平均估值价格偏离最大。 风险提示 统计数据偏差或遗漏，高估值个券出现信用风险 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价成交跟踪 | 大幅折价个券成交跟踪 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 剩余期限 估值价格偏 估值收益率 | | | 估值净价 ...

Macro Strategy - In Q1, China's export scale exceeded 6 trillion yuan, achieving a rapid growth of 6.9%, demonstrating strong resilience under pressure [2] - Private enterprises accounted for 5.85 trillion yuan in imports and exports, growing by 5.8%, and their share increased to 56.8% [2] - High-tech product exports from private enterprises reached a historical high of nearly 1 trillion yuan, maintaining their position as the largest import and export entity [2] - The customs authority noted four positive changes in foreign trade: increased activity among business entities, expanded cooperation space, optimized regional opening layout, and enhanced "new content" in foreign trade, with self-owned brand product exports growing by 10.2% [2] Industry Company - Steel Industry - The steel sector declined by 6.29% last week, underperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 3.42 percentage points [9] - The steel industry's PE valuation stands at 15.6 times, at the 62.35% percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 0.95 times, at the 25.49% percentile [9] - Steel production showed a slight decrease, with iron water production and blast furnace operating rates remaining high; as of April 11, the operating rate increased by 0.15 percentage points week-on-week [10] - Demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.14% week-on-week, influenced by tariff policies and limited downstream industry operations [10] - Total steel inventory decreased by 1.71% week-on-week, although the decline rate has narrowed; inventory pressure is mainly on factory stocks, which increased by 2% [10] - Short-term outlook suggests that tariff issues may further suppress domestic steel demand, leading to weak steel prices; however, long-term prospects for high-end and green transformation in the industry are promising [10]

摘要 折价幅度靠前 50 只 AA 城投债（主体评级）中，"25 河南路桥 MTN002"估值价格偏离程度最大。净价跌幅靠前 50 只 个券中，"24 川发 K3"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只个券中，"22 万科 07"估值价格偏离幅度最 大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只二永债中，"24 建行二级资本债 02B"估值价格偏离程度最大。 风险提示 统计数据偏差或遗漏，高估值个券出现信用风险 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价幅度靠前 50 只 AA 城投债（主体评级） | 债券名称 | 剩余期限 | 估值价格 | 估值净价 | 估值收益率 | 当日估值 | 票面利率 | 隐含 | 主体 | 成交日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (年) | 偏离(%) | (元) | 偏离(bp) | 收益(%) | (%) | 评级 | 评级 | | | 25 河南路桥 MTN002 | 2.89 | -0.27 | 99.74 | 10.17 | 4.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current environment is favorable for credit bonds, with analysts suggesting that the time for the central bank to implement a selective easing policy has arrived, driven by tariff impacts and positive market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Credit Bond Market Performance - Credit bonds have shown strong performance, with yields declining significantly due to a shift towards a looser funding environment and the impact of unexpected U.S. tariff policies [2]. - As of April 1, the AA-rated one-year credit spread narrowed by 27 basis points (BP), while mid to long-term lower-rated bonds saw spreads narrow by over 10 BP [2]. - City investment bonds have outperformed the overall credit bond market, with three-year bonds across all ratings narrowing by over 10 BP [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook for Credit Bonds - April is typically a window for credit bond allocation in the second quarter, with historical data indicating that credit spreads often narrow from April to May [3]. - Increased market demand and reduced supply are expected to contribute to the narrowing of credit spreads during this period, with over 1 trillion yuan in growth in wealth management products historically observed in April [3]. - Analysts suggest that if the central bank's easing policy is implemented in the second quarter, April is likely to be a key period for credit bond allocation [3]. Group 3: Institutional Preferences - City investment bonds are favored by institutions due to their perceived lower risk and improved credit binding with local governments following debt resolution policies [4]. - The trading volume of lower-rated city investment bonds has increased significantly, particularly in regions like Hebei, Shaanxi, Jiangxi, and Chongqing, with monthly turnover rates exceeding 15% [4]. - Analysts recommend a "downward strategy" for city investment bonds, particularly focusing on bonds from central provinces while being cautious of high-profile regions [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Institutions are advised to actively position themselves in credit bonds, leveraging the current favorable conditions for potential capital gains [6][7]. - Suggested strategies include focusing on AA-rated bonds with maturities of three years or more for short-term capital gains, and a "long duration + moderate downward" strategy for broader credit bond allocation [7]. - For risk-averse investors, AAA or AA+ rated bonds with maturities of five to seven years are recommended, balancing potential returns with risk management [7].

量化信用策略 截至 4 月 3 日，利率风格组合优势明显，二级资本债重仓策略收益随之出现不小涨幅。节前一周债市超预期上涨，各 类策略组合综合收益趋近年初水平。其中，信用风格二级资本债重仓策略周度收益上涨 26.4BP，为涨幅最大的一类策 略，久期及混合哑铃组合单周绝对收益均接近 0.6%，而利率风格组合收益普遍超过对应信用风格组合。 品种久期跟踪 城投债、产业债、保险公司债久期处于较高历史分位。截至 4 月 4 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别加权于 2.12 年、 2.75 年，城投债与产业债均处于 2021 年 3 月以来较高位水平，商业银行债中，二级资本债、银行永续债以及一般商 金债加权平均成交期限分别为 3.82 年、3.17 年、2.23 年；从其余金融债来看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司 债、租赁公司债久期分别为 1.52 年、1.95 年、4.06 年、1.20 年，一般商金债、证券公司债、银行永续债位于较低历 史分位，保险公司债位于较高历史分位。 票息资产热度图谱 截至 2025 年 4 月 7 日，存量信用债中，民企地产债估值收益率及利差整体高于其他品种。与上周相比，非金融非地 产类产业债 ...

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a collective rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.25%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.27% on April 10, 2025 [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 901 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] ETF Performance - Several US stock ETFs saw significant gains, with the S&P Oil & Gas ETF rising by 10.06%, the Nasdaq Index ETF increasing by 10.04%, and the Nasdaq 100 ETF up by 10.03% [1] - The US stock market indices experienced substantial increases, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 2,962.86 points (7.87%), the S&P 500 up by 474.13 points (9.52%), and the Nasdaq Composite up by 1,857.06 points (12.16%) [2] ETF Trading Volume - The top ETFs by trading volume included the Yinhua Daily ETF with 14.6 billion yuan, the Hang Seng Technology ETF with 13.93 billion yuan, and the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF with 13.70 billion yuan [5] - The top ETFs by turnover rate were led by the Benchmark Treasury ETF at 314.35%, followed by the New Economy ETF at 216.55% and the S&P Consumer ETF at 205.95% [6] New ETF Launch - The Dachen Shenzhen 100 ETF (code: 159216) is set to launch on April 11, 2025, closely tracking the Shenzhen 100 Index, which reflects the performance of core quality listed companies in the Shenzhen market [7] - The Shenzhen 100 Index is characterized by a significant weight in large-cap stocks, with 44.61% of its components having a market capitalization exceeding 200 billion yuan [7] Sector Focus - The Shenzhen 100 Index components are concentrated in TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), high-end manufacturing, and consumer sectors, indicating long-term growth potential aligned with China's economic transformation and high-quality development [8]

成交价格方面，本周天津城投债成交收益率较高，超过 3%。从变动来看，与上 周相比，本周浙江、山东超长城投债成交收益率较上周上升较大，较上周分别 上升 52bp 和 51bp，本周安徽、河南超长城投债成交收益率较上周下降幅度较 大，较上周分别下降 26bp 和 16bp。另外，江苏低估值成交占比较上周下降 59 个百分点，河南、北京等地低估值成交占比较上周上升较多。 三、超长产业债：建筑装饰、机械设备行业成交量上升，电子、基础化工行业 低估值成交占比下降 蓄势待修复 ——超长信用债交易跟踪 一、超长信用债成交量下降，低估值成交占比上升 本周（2025 年 3 月 31 日-2025 年 4 月 3 日，下同）超长信用债每日成交活跃 度有所下降，超长信用债平均每日成交笔数为 2.7 笔，前值为 2.8 笔。本周剩 余期限在 15-20 年的超长信用债每日成交笔数较上周下降较多。从品种来看， 本周城投债每日成交活跃度高于产业债。本周超长信用债成交量有所下降。本 周超长信用债成交量为 280 亿元，较上周环比下降 42.15%，成交量下降主要体 现在剩余期限在 7-10 年的超长信用债中。 1）在成交期限方面，机构久 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is gradually recovering due to the central bank's continuous net injection and the rising expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts [1] - Hai Fu Tong Fund is currently the largest and most diverse fund company managing bond ETFs in the market, with its credit bond ETF (511190) increasing over 41 basis points in the past week [1] - The credit bond ETF (511190) has seen a net inflow of over 2.22 million yuan in the past week, with a total growth in scale of 2.32 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Industrial Securities suggests that holding short-duration credit bonds is a good choice in the short term, considering the fluctuating funding environment and market volatility [2] - The recommendation is to gradually shift from short to long credit bond allocations as the interest rate downtrend becomes clearer [2]

核 心 观 点 年初以来，资金面维持紧平衡状态，尤其是短端利率明显抬升。那么，一季度政府债供给还剩多少？3月流动 性缺口有多大？资金面后续会改善么？ 政府债供给多少？ 国债方面， 参考1-2月同类型国债单只发行规模，我们预计3月国债或将发行1.4万亿元，考 虑7122亿元的到期量，国债净融资规模或近6500亿元。 地方债方面， 我们预计3月地方政府新增债和普通再融 资债规模分别为4100亿元和4200亿元；今年特殊再融资债发行进度已近半，3月特殊再融资债发行规模或约 4500亿元，则地方债发行总规模近1.3万亿元，净融资规模约1.2万亿元。 总的来看，我们预计3月国债和地方 债发行分别约1.4万亿元和1.3万亿元，政府债净融资规模合计超1.8万亿元。 资金面会改善么？ 从资金供需的角度看，3月政府债净供给规模较高，缴准规模增长也对流动性构成扰动，而 提现回流对流动性有一定补充，在排除逆回购和MLF到期因素的情况下， 我们预计3月流动性缺口约2600亿 元，资金面存在一定的压力。 往后看，"两会"后资金利率有望和往年类似趋于转松，央行净投放也将边际增 加，随着后续国债发行规模提升，政府债供需失衡或边际缓解。在政 ...

笔记哥团队整理汇编了一套适合新手上路的学习资料《笔记哥•债券基础手册》，内容包括 债券基本概念 ， 利率债基本分析框架 ， 信用债基本分析框架 ，以及 债券交易员的职业发展 等。当然，如果想进一步提升实战能力，可直接在京东或天猫上购买笔记哥个人著作《分析》《交易》《应对》。 如需获取 《笔记哥•债券基础手册》电子版 ，请转发本文至朋友圈，并添加笔记助手微信获取： bijige6 笔记哥团队汇编 0 债券笔记 笔记哥·债券基础手册 目录 债券基础知识 .. ● .A... ... 债券的定义与基本条款 . 1、债券全称、简称和代码 . 2、发行主体和债券类型 | 3、债券发行方式 7 | | --- | | 4、利息支付方式 . | | 5、主体和债项评级 | | 票面利率、面值和规模 . 6, 9 | | 债券市场分类 9 | | 银行间债券市场 1 9 | | 2、交易所债券市场 .. | | =、 债券的发行 | | 1、发行定价方式 . .. | | 2、发行结果 . | | 四、债券的交易 | | 1、现券买卖 . | | 2、债券回购 . .. 21 | | .. 五、 收益率曲线 | | 1、收益 ...