早盘速递 2025/7/4 3、美国6月非农就业人口增加14.7万人，远超预期的11万人， 4月和5月就业人数合计上修1.6万人。失业率意外降至4.1%，预期 为升至4.3%。美国上周初请失业金人数23.3万人，创六周新低。数据公布后，市场放弃对7月美联储降息的押注，9月降息的概 率也下滑至80%左右。 4、据不愿透露姓名的与会代表称，欧佩克+已开始讨论8月增产41.1万桶/日，预计将在本周末线上会议中进一步商讨。会议将 于周日召开。一些代表补充称，因日程安排问题，线上会议也可能改为周六举行。 5、据Mysteel，截至7月3日当周，螺纹钢产量连续第三周增加，厂库由增转降，社库由降转增，结束此前连续十六周减少的趋 势，表需连续两周增加。其中，螺纹产量221.08万吨，增幅1.49%；厂库180.47万吨，降幅2.76%；社库364.74万吨，增幅 0.37%；表需224.87万吨，增幅2.26%。 热点资讯 1、美国国会众议院以218票赞成、214票反对的表决结果通过了总统特朗普推动的"大而美"税收与支出法案。该法案因造成联 邦援助削减、长期债务增加和为富人及大企业减税等而备受争议。白宫说，特朗普定于7月4日 ...

2025.07. 04 本文字数：2845，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一 财经 高雅 美国总统特朗普力推的"大而美"减税法案赶在他设定的7月4日最后期限之前被送到他桌上签署，但 这份法案将对美国能源和医疗保健造成伤害。 当地时间7月3日，这项法案以218比214的票数通过众议院。"大而美"法案旨在以一揽子立法实现 特朗普的几项核心政策目标，为了延长现行减税政策并增加国防及边境安全预算，将削减医疗补助 （Medicaid）和食品援助项目支出，并取消对电动汽车和太阳能项目的政府支持。 但根据美国国会预算办公室（CBO）的估算，预计到2034年，该法案将使国家债务增加4.1万亿美 元，并使1180万美国人失去医保。美国民调公司晨间咨询（Morning Consult）最近调查结果显 示，50%的选民反对"大而美"法案的内容，支持率则为36%。 全球经济分析公司BCA研究地缘政治首席策略师格特钦（Matt Gertken）对第一财经记者表示，该 法案的通过是意料之中，因为美国必须提高国家债务上限，以避免发生技术性违约，同时也要防止在 2026年增税3500亿美元从而对共和党的中期选举产生冲击。不过，法案的通过， ...

Core Viewpoint - Sunac China is making significant progress in its debt restructuring efforts, including a recent share issuance to facilitate the repayment of domestic bondholders [2][4]. Group 1: Debt Restructuring Progress - Sunac China has entered into a subscription agreement with a special purpose company to issue a total of 754,468,943 shares [3]. - The net proceeds from the share issuance will be used to repay domestic bondholders who opt for the "stock option," involving approximately 5.6 billion RMB in bonds [4]. - The overall debt restructuring plan includes options such as cash buybacks, stock issuance, and debt extensions, with a total of 15.4 billion RMB in domestic debt to be restructured [4]. Group 2: Share Issuance Details - The proposed issuance of 75.4 million new shares represents 7.04% of the company's existing share capital as of the announcement date [4]. - Following the issuance, the major shareholder Sun Hongbin's stake will decrease from 25.59% to 23.9% [5]. - The restructuring plan stipulates that for every 100 RMB of domestic bonds, bondholders can receive 13.5 shares, equating to a repayment price of approximately 7.41 RMB per share [8]. Group 3: International Debt Restructuring - Sunac's international debt restructuring plan involves converting existing debts into equity, with a total of 9.55 billion USD in foreign debt [8]. - Approximately 75% of the holders of the existing debt have joined the restructuring agreement, with hearings scheduled for September [9]. - The plan includes issuing new convertible bonds to major shareholders to maintain stable equity structure [8].

当地时间7月4日美国独立日当天，总统特朗普将签署备受争议的"大而美"税收与支出法案，标志着其任内最重大的经济政策胜利。该法案以微 弱优势通过国会两院表决，核心条款包括延长企业和个人减税措施、削减社会福利支出并提高债务上限。尽管法案被批评加剧贫富分化和财政 赤字，但市场对短期经济刺激的预期推动美股高开，美元指数升至97附近，而黄金价格则因美债收益率攀升和美元走强承压，现货黄金在3330 美元/盎司附近震荡。 一、法案核心内容与通过历程 "大而美"法案是特朗普2025年重返白宫后推动的标志性立法，其核心目标是通过减税和财政支出调整刺激经济。法案主要内容包括： 无限期延长企业税减免：将企业所得税最高税率维持在21%，并取消替代性最低税，预计未来十年为企业节省4.5万亿美元。 个人税调整：提高遗产税和赠予税免税额，加班费和小费收入免税，但医疗补助和食物援助计划（SNAP）的资格要求被收紧，预计削减近1.5 万亿美元社会福利支出。 债务扩张：联邦债务上限提高5万亿美元，未来十年赤字预计增加3.3万亿美元，美国国债规模将突破40万亿美元。 参议院于7月1日以51:50的微弱优势通过，副总统万斯投下关键一票；众议院于3日以 ...

2025 年 07 月 04 日 宏观专题研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 黄金价格波动的底层逻辑 最近一年走势 相关报告 《 金 融 政 策 加 力 稳 市 场 稳 预 期 * 夏 磊 》 — — 2025-05-08 《 政 治 局 会 议 的 五 大 政 策 部 署 * 夏 磊 》 — — 2025-04-25 本篇报告试图回答以下核心问题：1、黄金价格波动的核心逻辑；2、 如何看未来黄金走势。 黄金是一种不可再生资源，被广泛作为消费品、投资资产和避险工 具，兼具货币、商品与金融三重属性。黄金价格波动不仅紧扣全球 经济脉搏，还与实际利率起伏、地缘政治动荡、主要经济体央行货 币政策和购金行为、市场供需关系变化、其他突发性风险事件等因 素密切相关。 黄金价格不仅有周期的波动，也有加速上涨的趋势。1973 年布雷顿 森林体系瓦解后，黄金价格历时35年3个月于2008年3月达到1000 美元/盎司；再经过 12 年 4 个月，于 2020 年 8 月突破 2000 美元/ 盎司；至 2025 年 3 月，仅用约 4 年 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Aoyuan (03883.HK) is implementing plans and measures to alleviate liquidity pressure and address the auditor's concerns regarding its going concern status Group 1: Debt Restructuring and Financial Management - The company is actively promoting a comprehensive restructuring of its domestic debt to establish a long-term mechanism for alleviating debt pressure and strengthening cash flow risk management [1] - The domestic debt restructuring plan is nearly complete and is currently seeking feedback from various parties, including domestic creditors [1] - The company has reached contractual arrangements with several domestic financial institutions to extend existing financing arrangements amounting to approximately RMB 1.014 billion [1] Group 2: Sales and Operational Efficiency - The company is accelerating the pre-sale and sale of properties under development and completed properties, achieving a contract sales amount of approximately RMB 4.02 billion and a contract sales area of about 436,200 square meters in the first half of 2025 [1] - To control administrative expenses, the company has optimized its workforce, reducing the total number of employees by approximately 28% since January 2025 and streamlining its organizational structure by eliminating two regional companies [1] Group 3: Legal and Asset Management - The company has reached three settlement agreements with business partners regarding overdue/unpaid operating payables, bank loans, and other borrowings in the first half of 2025 [1] - The company continues to explore potential asset sale opportunities and will announce any substantial progress in this area [1]

以下文章来源于凤凰网财经 ，作者风暴眼 凤凰网财经 . 你好，我们是凤凰网财经，全球华人都在看的财经公众号，传播最有价值的财经报道，你值得关注！欢 迎访问：http://finance.ifeng.com/ 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 整个资本版图在市场的寒意中震荡不已。 作者丨 风暴眼 来源丨 凤凰网财经 6 月 30 日，一则核数师"非标报"引爆香江。 香港大佬杨受成旗下英皇国际 166 亿港元银行借贷逾期，德勤对其持续经营能力亮出红灯，"可能 对其持续经营能力构成重大疑问"。 利空消息迅速引发市场剧烈反应，投资者用脚投票。 英皇国际股价当日一度暴跌超 15% ，尽管尾盘跌幅收窄至 11.76% ，但市值已缩水至仅 11.58 亿港元，这一数字甚至不足其债务总额的零头。 更具连锁效应的是英皇系个股的集体重挫。 截至港股收盘，英皇钟表珠宝跌 8.33% ，英皇娱乐酒店跌 5.26% ，英皇资本暴跌 18.18% ，英 皇文化产业，跌幅亦达 14.89% ，整个资本版图在市场的寒意中震荡不已。 亏损扩大一倍多 这场风暴的导火索，源于英皇国际的 2025 财年业绩公告。 财报里藏着两个平行世界 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent tax and spending bill passed by Congress is expected to exacerbate long-term debt issues in the U.S., despite temporarily alleviating short-term default risks [2][3]. Group 1: Legislative Impact - The bill extends Trump's 2017 tax cuts and authorizes increased spending on border security and military, while significantly cutting Medicare and Medicaid [2]. - The borrowing limit for the U.S. government has been raised by $5 trillion, which is projected to increase national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [2][3]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will reduce tax revenue by $4.5 trillion and cut spending by $1.2 trillion over the next ten years, resulting in 10.9 million people losing federal health insurance [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Foreign investors are reportedly selling U.S. Treasuries, raising concerns about declining demand and increasing borrowing costs [3]. - The 10-year Treasury yield has rebounded due to investor worries about fiscal health, indicating a potential long-term rise in interest rates [4]. - The market's reaction to the bill has been relatively muted, as the expansion of the deficit has already been priced in since Trump's return to office [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The bill is expected to contribute 0.5% to economic growth next year, but concerns remain that the debt burden may offset the intended economic stimulus [3]. - The focus of the market is shifting towards economic data and corporate earnings, with the debt issue becoming a secondary concern [5].

此前，由于美国政府债务及利息支出增加，国际信用评级机构穆迪5月下调了美国主权信用评级，这是 第三家下调美国主权信用评级的主要国际评级机构。 该法案因造成联邦援助削减、长期债务增加和为富人及大企业减税等而备受争议。《纽约时报》指出， 这一法案使美国走上新的、更危险的财政道路。初步分析显示，该法案不仅会在未来10年使美国赤字增 加约3.3万亿美元，还会减少国家几十年内的税收收入。此种缺口可能会导致美国的财政轨迹开始发生 翻天覆地的变化，并加剧债务危机的担忧。 美国智库曼哈顿研究所高级研究员里德尔表示，这可能是自20世纪60年代以来最昂贵的一项立法。危险 在于，在赤字已经大幅增长的基础上，国会又将增加数万亿美元新借款。曾在奥巴马总统任期内担任经 济顾问委员会主席的杰森·弗曼指出，该法案可能使立法者更难控制债务。 目前，美国国债已高达36.2万亿美元。美国媒体指出，在美国债务已达历史高位的情况下，该法案将进 一步扩大结构性赤字。"美国日益增长的债务负担将惩罚子孙后代。" 美国国会众议院3日下午以218票赞成、214票反对的表决结果通过了总统特朗普推动的"大而美"税收与 支出法案。美国国内担忧该法案将进一步加剧美国财政 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zhongli International Leasing Co., Ltd. successfully issued its first super short-term financing bond in the interbank bond market, marking a significant step in its capital market activities [1][4] - The total amount of the bond issuance is RMB 300 million, with a maturity of 180 days, aimed at supplementing the company's operating funds and optimizing its debt structure [1] - Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank acted as the lead underwriter and book manager, providing strong support through its capital market experience and professional underwriting capabilities [1] Group 2 - This issuance represents Zhongli Leasing's first foray into super short-term financing bonds, reflecting its proactive exploration in optimizing debt structure and enhancing fund management efficiency [4] - The successful issuance has broadened Zhongli Leasing's financing channels and improved its liquidity management capabilities, providing robust financial support for future business expansion [4] - The company is committed to serving small and micro enterprises by alleviating their funding pressures and will continue to innovate financing products and service models [4]