Group 1 - In June, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.7%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index reached 50.5%, indicating a recovery in both sectors [1] - The manufacturing PMI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, marking the second consecutive month of improvement, with production index at 51% and new orders index at 50.2% [1] - The overall manufacturing sector is showing signs of stabilization, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [2] Group 2 - The construction industry saw a significant increase in business activity index to 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, driven by rising investment-related construction activities [2] - The recent stabilization in raw material purchasing prices and finished product sales prices indicates a positive trend in the manufacturing sector, ending a three-month decline [2] - Despite a decline in business activity indices for sectors related to consumer travel, the market expectation index remains high at 56.0%, suggesting potential recovery in service-related industries as the summer consumption peak approaches [3]

经济景气水平总体保持扩张 "6月制造业内部更多领域生产经营活跃度提升，景气面显著扩大。其中新订单指数达50.2%，重回扩张 区间，表明市场需求止降回升，企业订单增加，预示着后续生产有望进一步提速。同时，制造业出口逐 步恢复，新出口订单指数连续两个月上升，展现出在全球贸易环境复杂的背景下，我国制造业产品的国 际竞争力不断增强。"申银万国期货金融期货研究部经理唐广华说。 伴随着经济增长动力的逐步释放，资本市场投资情绪也迎来回暖。前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙告 诉期货日报记者，在地缘风险缓和以及政策持续发力背景下，近期资本市场投资者信心逐步回升，市场 向好的基础进一步夯实，流入市场的资金逐步增加。展望下半年，国内经济面将延续修复，A股市场行 情有望超出预期，值得期待。 唐广华认为，当前随着一揽子增量政策加力推出，以及已出台的存量政策效应逐步显现，我国经济景气 水平延续回升向好态势。后续随着增量政策的持续推动和落地，市场信心持续恢复，市场需求进一步增 长，制造业或继续保持扩张态势，建议重点关注政策实施效果和市场变化。 文韬也表示，预计下半年在没有大的外部冲击的情况下，随着政策组合的进一步发力，我国制造业将保 持稳中 ...

Group 1 - Domestic refined oil will enter a new round of price adjustment window [1] - Key economic data releases include China's June Caixin Manufacturing PMI and Eurozone's June CPI [1][1] - Major central bank leaders will participate in a panel discussion [1] Group 2 - Various manufacturing PMIs from Germany, France, and the UK will be released [1][1] - The US will report on May JOLTs job openings and construction spending [1][1] - API crude oil inventory data will be released for the week ending June 28 [1]

美国6月达拉斯联储制造业产出指数 1.3，前值0.9。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the Dallas Federal Reserve's manufacturing raw materials price index for June is reported at 43, an increase from the previous value of 40.7 [1]

美国6月达拉斯联储制造业装船指数 -7.3，前值0.5。 ...

美国6月达拉斯联储制造业就业指数 5.7，前值3.5。 ...

| | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 06. 30) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 (亿 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 2. 30 | ਜੂੰ | | 5.20 | 300 | 47453. 33 | -4146. 25 | 90.95 | | R007 | 2. 01 | | | 4. 20 | Colo | 4342. 70 | -10412. 12 | 8. 32 | | R014 | 1.88 | | | 2. 35 | -5 | 342. 45 | -231. 12 | 0. 66 | | R1M | 1.86 | | Am | 1.90 | 0 | 2. 10 | 1. 81 | 0.00 | | 汇总 | | | | | | 52175. 19 | -14787. 6 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June is reported at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month by 0.2 percentage points, although it remains below the expansion threshold of 50% [1][2] - The PMI has shown fluctuations throughout the year, peaking at 50.5% in March before dropping to 49% in April due to seasonal factors and increased trade tensions between China and the U.S. [2] - In May, the PMI rebounded to 49.5%, continuing its upward trend into June, with production and new orders indices at 51% and 50.2% respectively, suggesting an acceleration in manufacturing activities and improved market demand [2] Group 2 - The purchasing volume index for June reached 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating increased procurement willingness among enterprises [3] - Rising procurement volumes have led to a rebound in raw material prices, with the main raw material purchase price index and factory price index at 48.4% and 46.2%, both increasing by 1.5 percentage points [3] - The equipment manufacturing sector is performing well, with both production and demand being active, as evidenced by the PMI for equipment manufacturing at 51.4% and high-tech manufacturing at 50.9%, both remaining in the expansion zone for two consecutive months [4] Group 3 - The equipment manufacturing PMI has shown a recovery from a significant drop in April, with values of 51.2% in May and 51.4% in June, alongside production and new orders indices exceeding 53% [4] - From January to May, profits in the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing sectors increased by 56% year-on-year [4] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI has maintained an expansion trend for five consecutive months, reflecting a positive development trajectory [4]

证券研究报告 6 月制造业 PMI 数据点评 6 月制造业 PMI 较 5 月的 49.5%回升至 49.7%、略高于彭博一致预期 （49.6%），但弱于季节性水平，非制造业商务活动指数较 5 月的 50.3%回 升至 50.5%（彭博一致预期 50.3%），建筑业活动 PMI 景气度明显回升、 或反应基建活动有所提速。6 月制造业 PMI 较 5 月边际改善，供需两端分项 亦持续修复，但较季节性水平仍偏低（16-24 年、除 2020 年均值为 50.3%）。 关税豁免期临近抢出口效应或仍对出口及生产有所支撑，国内年中购物节和 以旧换新政策亦对消费形成提振，生产指数回升 0.3 个百分点至 51.0%，新 订单/新出口订单指数亦分别从 49.8%/47.5%上行至 50.2%/47.7%；价格层 面，购进价格及出厂价格均有所回暖，主要受到近期国际油价反弹的提振， 但仍在 50 荣枯线以下，显示工业品价格回升动能仍偏弱。行业中，装备制 造、高技术和消费品行业 PMI 连续 2 个月保持扩张，而高耗能行业 PMI 景 气度仍偏弱。 往前看，7 月 9 日"对等关税"豁免期后关税政策的不确定性或仍将对后续 出口、 ...