Group 1 - The market has experienced a significant upward movement after a period of adjustment, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - A key time cycle point of 34 days has been reached, which is considered a critical juncture for market movements [1] - There has been a noticeable style switch in the market, with technology stocks driving the upward momentum while consumer stocks showed slight adjustments [1] Group 2 - The market's trading volume increased by 200 billion, reaching 1.2 trillion, indicating a healthy and moderate expansion of market activity [1] - The increase in trading volume by 20% suggests that there is room for further growth, potentially leading to a sustained market trend [1] - Looking ahead to June, sectors such as water and electricity, technology, and military industries are expected to present investment opportunities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal policy in China has been actively implemented in the first four months of 2023, with a significant increase in fiscal expenditure compared to revenue, supporting economic resilience in April [2][3]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first four months of 2023, the total national broad fiscal revenue reached 93,202 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 1.3%, while broad fiscal expenditure was 119,717 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of about 7.2% [2][5]. - The fiscal revenue shortfall compared to expenditure was approximately 26,515 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of about 54% [2][5]. - The general public budget expenditure was 93,581 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, slightly above the annual budget growth rate of 4.4% [3][4]. Government Debt and Financing - The government has accelerated bond issuance to support fiscal expenditure, with net financing of government bonds reaching 48,500 billion yuan in the first four months, an increase of 35,800 billion yuan year-on-year [6][9]. - Local government bond issuance totaled approximately 35,354 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of about 84%, the highest in recent years [6][9]. Economic Support Measures - The fiscal expenditure has been directed towards social security, employment, and education, with social security and employment spending around 17,000 billion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year, and education spending approximately 15,000 billion yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year [4][5]. - Infrastructure investment has shown stable growth at 5.8%, supported by the acceleration of local government special bond issuance [4][5]. Future Outlook - The central government has indicated a need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including the acceleration of local government special bonds and long-term special bonds [9][12]. - Experts predict that the fiscal policy will continue to be a crucial support for economic resilience in the second quarter, with potential for new debt policies to be introduced later in the year [12][13].

Choice数据显示，明日至下周三，将有9只股票型ETF集中上市，包括数字经济ETF、航空航天ETF、科 创半导体设备ETF、科创50ETF等。根据规定，ETF应在上市前完成建仓，使基金投资组合比例符合基 金合同等文件的约定。随着这些ETF批量上市，将为市场注入大量新的资金。（上证报） ...

原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月29日 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 2月29日 | 2月28日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | Brent | 65.31 | 64.90 | 0.41 | 0.63% | 美元/桶 | | WIT | 62.31 | 61.84 | 0.47 | 0.76% | | | ਟ | 457.40 | 453.60 | 3.80 | 0.84% | 元/相 | | Brent M1-M3 | 1.23 | 1.17 | 0.06 | 5.13% | | | WTI M1-M3 | 1.29 | 1.22 | 0.07 | 5.74% | 美元/桶 | | SC MI-M3 | 5.10 | 4.00 | 1.10 | 27.50% | 元/桶 | | Brent-WTI | 3.00 | 3.06 | -0.06 | -1.96% | | | EFS | 1.94 | 1.96 | -0.02 ...

对于坐拥汽车保有量高达3.53亿辆的全球最大汽车市场而言，培育汽车消费新增量的现实意义已大于促进新车消费。如何延伸汽车消费链条，如何深挖 并释放3.53亿辆汽车的消费潜力，是汽车业必须直面的紧迫问题。 目前，商务部副部长盛秋平在国新办发布会上介绍，今年商务部将重点推动汽车流通消费改革。其中提到，支持地方发展汽车改装、房车露营、传统经典车 等汽车后市场，发展汽车运动和汽车文化，延伸汽车消费链条，着力培育汽车消费新增量。 随后，商务部部长王文涛在《旗帜》杂志刊发题为《大力提振消费全方位扩大国内需求推动经济持续回升向好》的文章，列出接下来提振消费的一系列重点 工作，包括升级商品消费、扩大服务消费、培育新型消费和创新消费场景四大方面。 具体到汽车行业，四大维度均蕴含深度变革机遇：从皮卡、房车的功能松绑到新能源智能车型的功能外延，从二手车透明交易体系到"汽车俱乐部"服务生 态，从赛车嘉年华的场景创新到元宇宙车展的科技融合，汽车消费正从单一产销模式向"文化引领、服务支撑、场景驱动"的多元生态跃迁。 各地争相开启汽车消费新范式 5月以来，各地积极创新汽车消费场景，加速培育新增量。以汽车服务性消费为核心，融合汽车运动、文化元 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities 500 Quality Growth Index (930939) increased by 0.59% as of May 23, 2025, with notable gains from Huahai Pharmaceutical (600521) at 8.66%, Betta Pharmaceuticals (300558) at 6.12%, and Xinlitai (002294) at 5.79% [1] - The 500 Quality Growth ETF (560500) rose by 0.75%, with the latest price at 0.95 yuan [1] - The Chief Risk Officer announced a more flexible and precise issuance counter-cyclical adjustment mechanism to better align investment and financing in the capital market [1] Group 2 - Bohai Securities indicated that future market opportunities will depend on incremental changes, suggesting that in case of unexpected downturns due to external risks or investor sentiment, investors should consider counter-cyclical strategies [2] - The report emphasized a "barbell" allocation strategy, focusing on high-dividend and relatively underweighted banking sectors, while also looking for thematic investment opportunities in mergers and acquisitions and new consumption sectors [2] - The 500 Quality Growth Index selects 100 companies with high profitability, sustainable earnings, and strong cash flow from the China Securities 500 Index, providing diverse investment options [2] Group 3 - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities 500 Quality Growth Index accounted for 24.07% of the index, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) being the highest at 3.13% [3] - The top ten stocks include companies like Ninebot (689009), Kaiying Network (002517), and Shenghong Technology (300476), with varying weightings and performance [5]

"以旧换新" 政策的创新设计，打通了"投资端发力—生产端升级—消费端受益"的价值链条。商务部的 数据显示，4月汽车、家电等12大类消费品以旧换新规模达4941.6万台，带动相关消费7200亿元。财政 资金向消费倾斜引导社会消费品零售总额增长至5.1%，创近1年新高，逐步回归长期潜在增长水平。政 策层面，超长期特别国债3000亿元用于消费品以旧换新政策的支出，规模较去年翻倍，一方面巩固汽车 和家电等新质生产力的消费提振成果，化解产能过剩的困局；另一方扩围消费品补贴范围至手机、平 板、手表、手环、自行车、家居等商品。部分地方政府在财政压力缓解后，将消费补贴行动扩展至服务 业领域，促使消费从依赖补贴演变至市场化自主循环，体育娱乐、烟酒等可选消费和粮油、日用品、餐 饮等必需消费均持续改善。 在一季度3.4% 的工业企业营业收入增速中，汽车制造、船舶航空、电气机械和计算机通信设备等新质 生产力产业贡献率接近30%，营业收入同比增速保持在10%以上，远超传统制造业4.6%的增速。这种结 构性变化背后，是国家产业政策资金 "投早投小" 的战略定力，是长达数年科研投入、资本投资的成 果，支撑起经济在新旧产能转换背景下的增长动 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 高拓（13705969808） 核心观点 收入端承压之下 （ 1-4 月税收收入同比 -2.1% ，卖地收入同比 -11.4% ）， 今年财政或较往年更依赖债务端；通过观察政府债发行，可以得到若干财政政策线 索： 线索 1 ： 年内财政要保持力度，或大概率需要增量债务。 考虑到 7.2% 的广义财政支出累计增速已明显高于全年预算安排增速 （我们测算约 3.4%~5.1% ，详见 《财政三个关切思辨：规模、缺口、乘数》 ）， 政府债累计净融资同比也已明显"超量" （截至 5 月 20 日，累计同比已增加 6.2-2.6=3.6 万亿，而全年预计同比增 量为 2.2 万亿） ， 如年内收入端不出现明显改善 （或是大概率情形：当前物价低位运行、卖地收入尚未企稳，而关税影响尚未体现）， 财政要保持力度，或需要 增量债务 。 线索 2 ： 二季度非赤字债赶进度，或反映 财政边际倾斜投资 。 线索 3 ： 今年增量债务的抓手或在中央， 预算内国债加码、预算外准财政补资本金可期 。 报告摘要 一、 发债快慢之间的财政线 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 发债快慢之间的财政线索 ——4 月财政数据点评 事 项 4 月广义财政收入同比 2.7%，3 月同比-1.7%；4 月广义财政支出同比 12.9%， 3 月同比 10.1%。 主要观点 一、发债快慢之间的财政线索 收入端承压之下（1-4 月税收收入同比-2.1%，卖地收入同比-11.4%），今年财 政或较往年更依赖债务端；通过观察政府债发行，可以得到若干财政政策线 索： （一）开年以来发债进度较快，支撑财政靠前发力→年内财政要保持力度，或 大概率需要增量债务 观察 1：开年以来政府债发行进度较快（今年政府债净融资预计 13.9 万亿，较 去年增加 2.2 万亿（13.9 万亿包括：一般国债净融资约 4.9 万亿，特别国债净 融资约 1.8 万亿，新增一般债 8000 亿，新增专项债 4.4 万亿，特殊再融资债约 2 万亿）；截至 5 月 20 日，已知政府债净融资 6.2 万亿，进度 44.9%，去年 1- 5 月 2.6 万亿，进度 22.5%，2018~2024 年同期进度分别为 5.7%、38.8%、37.4%、 23%、40.3%、27.4%、22.5% ...

Group 1 - The central bank's recent interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions are expected to boost the stock market through improved liquidity, stimulated economic activity, and enhanced equity asset valuations [1] - Incremental policy measures supporting the capital market have exceeded expectations, including increased insurance fund investments in the stock market and adjustments to regulatory rules to lower investment risk factors [1] - The collaboration of various policies is anticipated to establish a long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the Chinese stock market, with new conditions for capital inflow into A-shares [1] Group 2 - The CSI A50 Index selects the largest 50 securities from leading companies across various industries, representing core assets in the A-share market [2] - The CSI A500 Index includes 500 leading stocks with strong market capitalization representation, covering different scales and emphasizing industry balance [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider A50 ETF and A500 ETF funds, which have specific classes and low service fees for investment [2]