当下，美国正深陷"关税—通胀—衰退"三角困局。在这个历史 转折点上，中国打出的这张牌可谓中美博弈下的政策组合拳 ——它是一次有力度的"宽信用+对冲风险"组合。 作者：欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 非常时期非常政策。 当美联储主席鲍威尔在华盛顿反复强调"需要更多数据"，而人民币汇率在"五一"假期表现出足够 的底气时，中国央行率先出手，宣布"双降"（降准与降息），宽松政策先于美联储落地。 5月7日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局（下称"金融 监管总局"）、中国证券监督管理委员会三大金融管理部门联合发布"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳 预期"的措施。 中国人民银行宣布，下调政策操作利率10个基点，下调再贷款利率0.25个百分点，下调个人住房公 积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，将科技创新与技术改造再贷款额度从5000亿元提升至8000亿元，设 立5000亿元"服务消费与养老再贷款"等10项增量政策。 这10项政策可归为三大类：一是数量型政策，通过降准等措施，直接增加流动性供应，降低存款 准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；二是价格型政策，7天期逆回购 利率下调10个 ...

Core Insights - The essence of true wealth lies not in financial assets but in the habits and learning experiences accumulated over a lifetime, as illustrated by Buffett's personal reflections [1] - The warning that while most people plan their retirement funds, the wise focus on cognitive restructuring to enhance their entire life [3] Group 1: Mindset and Learning - Individuals facing midlife crises often have three limiting beliefs: viewing learning as only for the young, equating stability with stagnation, and using "no opportunities" as an excuse for inaction [4] - Successful individuals possess three cognitive keys: transferable skills are more valuable than job-specific skills, cognitive compounding is more beneficial than financial compounding, and having an anti-fragile system is superior to a career moat [4] Group 2: Practical Strategies - Buffett's "5-hour rule" emphasizes five daily practices: deep reading (preferably physical books), cross-disciplinary networking (meeting three outsiders monthly), deliberate output (writing, speaking, teaching), physical investment (one hour of exercise equals eight hours of cognitive upgrade), and cognitive reboot (a half-day of ignorance weekly) [6] - A CFO from a listed company in Hangzhou exemplified this by transitioning to a digital consulting expert through systematic learning, resulting in a fivefold increase in hourly wage [7] Group 3: Actionable Advice - The ultimate advice for middle-aged individuals is to maintain a learning pace that intimidates the youth [9] - Common traits among successful individuals include transforming anxiety into a learning checklist, replacing single experience with a combination of abilities, and viewing every crisis as an opportunity for upgrade [9] - Immediate action items include replacing evening screen time with 90 minutes of morning learning, meeting an industry professional who is difficult to understand, and establishing a personal "cognitive hedge fund" with a diverse skill set allocation [11]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a "double reduction" policy, which includes a cut in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, ahead of the Federal Reserve's actions, indicating a proactive approach to monetary policy [1][2] - The PBOC announced a 10 basis point reduction in policy operation rates and a 0.25 percentage point cut in both the re-lending rate and the personal housing provident fund loan rate, alongside increasing the re-lending quota for technological innovation from 500 billion to 800 billion yuan [2][3] - A total of ten new policies were introduced, categorized into three types: quantity-based policies to increase liquidity, price-based policies to lower funding costs, and structural policies to support key sectors such as technology and consumption [2][3] Group 2 - The financial regulatory authorities in China are set to introduce eight new policies aimed at adapting financing systems to new real estate development models and supporting small and micro enterprises [3][4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focusing on stabilizing the market and promoting long-term capital inflow, with measures including enhancing operations by the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. and reforming the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [3][4] - The coordinated efforts of the three major financial management departments reflect a break from previous market concerns regarding delayed or hesitant policy responses [3][5] Group 3 - The current economic environment in the U.S. is characterized by a "tariff-inflation-recession" triangle, which is challenging the independence of monetary policy and creating initial cracks in the dollar's hegemonic foundation [5][6] - The Chinese government's recent policy measures are seen as a strategic move in the context of U.S.-China economic negotiations, aiming to create a "policy buffer" ahead of high-level talks [6][7] - The A-share market responded positively to the policy announcements, indicating market confidence in the measures taken, although the reaction was more rational compared to previous policy-induced exuberance [6][7]

期 2025 年 5 月 9 日 1. 股指期货基差情况 表 1：股指期货基差 | | | IF | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约代码 | 上周基差 | 本周基差 | 基差变动 | 指增年化收益 | | IF2505 | -18.57 | -5.96 | 12.61 | 8.1% | | IF2506 | -54.37 | -37.56 | 16.81 | 9.5% | | IF2509 | -107.37 | -102.56 | 4.81 | 8.5% | | IF2512 | -132.77 | -139.36 | -6.59 | 7.2% | | | | IH | | | | 合约代码 | 上周基差 | 本周基差 | 基差变动 | 指增年化收益 | | IH2505 | -5.96 | -0.41 | 5.55 | 2.2% | | IH2506 | -23.96 | -17.81 | 6.15 | 6.9% | | IH2509 | -55.16 | -52.01 | 3.15 | 6.6% | | IH2512 | -57.36 | -57.01 ...

新台币波动只是开始，持有数万亿美元资产的亚洲投资者正面临巨大难题：如何对冲美元剧烈波动？ 新台币汇率本月大幅波动，新台币兑美元汇率飙升近 6%，创下20世纪 80 年代以来最大的单日波动幅 度。而香港金融管理局则花费了自2020年以来最大的单周金额，以捍卫港币联系汇率制度。 这些波动反映出亚洲投资者对于因出口而积累的数万亿美元美国资产将如何处理存在不确定性，这些资 产现在受制于美元的走弱。 分析师统计显示，在过去十年中，中国台湾的人寿保险公司积累了约7000亿美元的美元投资。这些保险 公司寻求海外更高的债券收益率，以帮助支付保单并吸引储户。 而为了从美元利率中获益并避免对冲成本，保险公司选择不对约三分之一的此类资产进行汇率波动对 冲。 但在近期剧烈的汇率波动之后，购买对冲工具的成本更高了。本周初，使用无需实物交割的远期合约对 冲新台币未来一个月波动的成本高达 24%，远高于正常水平。 我们仍在等待更多的触发因素，（美元兑亚洲货币）可能还会出现其他突然的大幅下跌。 然而，一些投资者认为，只要贸易顺差仍在产生需要回流市场的美元，这种情况就不太可能发生。 在中国香港，一些交易者正押注港币将首次自2020年以来突破与 ...

需要提醒的是，市场担忧仍未完全消散，仍需留意逢低买盘的支撑情况。本交易日需要密切关注国际贸 易局势相关消息和市场情绪的变化，另外，有多位美联储官员将发表讲话，投资者也需要予以关注。 市场认为这一贸易协议是积极的，因为这意味着特朗普为友好国家设想了一个10%的基线，除了这以外 的任何内容都可以谈判。美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔将于周六在瑞士与中国最高经济官员会 晤。自特朗普首次宣布征收关税以来，被广泛视为地缘政治不确定性对冲工具的黄金曾多次刷新历史高 位。今天的市场都将此视为利好消息。在我看来，10%的基准关税对进入美国的商品来说仍然很高，而 且我认为确实改变了全球贸易的运作方式。英美贸易协议宣布后，包括标普 500 指数在内的华尔街主要 股指受到市场对贸易协议乐观情绪的提振，避险资产遭遇抛售，日元、瑞郎和金价均不同程度下跌。 英美贸易协议的达成，缓解了市场对美国经济衰退的都那样，市场对美联储6月份降息预期也进一步降 温，利率期货显示美联储6月份降息概率已经下降至16.5%，而一个月词概率曾接近90%。美元指数也因 此大幅上涨，周四盘中一度创4月11日以来新高至100.76，收报100.63，为连续两个交 ...

Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4%, exceeding market expectations despite a high base from the previous year[2] - The trade war initiated in April 2025 has increased economic uncertainty, leading to downward revisions in GDP growth forecasts by international institutions[3] Monetary Policy Response - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a comprehensive financial policy package, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity[4] - The PBOC also lowered the benchmark interest rate for 7-day reverse repos from 1.5% to 1.4%, potentially reducing the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1 percentage points[10] Sector-Specific Measures - The reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and financial leasing companies has been reduced from 5% to 0%, aimed at stimulating auto consumption and reducing manufacturing costs[10] - The interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans has been cut by 0.25 percentage points, with the first home rate now at 2.6%[10] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - In March 2025, retail sales grew by 5.9% year-on-year, indicating improved consumer sentiment[17] - The consumer spending propensity reached 63.1% in Q1 2025, the highest for the first quarter since 2020, reflecting a positive trend in consumer confidence[17] Trade War Impact - The trade war could potentially reduce China's GDP growth by approximately 2 percentage points if high tariffs lead to a complete halt in trade with the U.S.[18] - However, the actual impact is expected to be less severe, with the IMF estimating a drag of only 0.6% on GDP growth due to the ability to reroute exports to non-U.S. markets[18] Future Outlook - The PBOC is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with significant room for further easing if economic conditions worsen due to the trade war[12] - The combination of monetary and fiscal policies is anticipated to support domestic demand, countering external uncertainties[16]

文章来源：公众号喵姐交易日记 相关细项如： 川普表示更多协议细节，预计未来几周内就会公布，这是川普「解放日」宣布关税措施以来，与其他国家谈成的第一个贸易协议。此外川普在记 者会上还声称，他预计美国代表将在与中国代表的谈判里，度过一个「愉快的周末」，也被认为是在对美中关税贸易谈判释放正面讯号。 美股四大指数收涨 这进度让投资者紧张情绪带来提振，激励美股主要指数周四全面收红： 比特币攀高10.4 万美元 比特币方面也迎来一波大涨，一举冲上10 万美元，为今年2 月以来，首次重返这一关键价位、并于今晨最高冲上104,295 美元，现报102,734 美 元。 对此，Mercuryo 执行长Petr Kozyakov 就评论表示： 时隔三个月，比特币再度冲上10 万美元，也是比特币自去年12 月5 日首次达到六位数后，第三次突破10 万美元大关。 美国总统川普昨（8）晚日在白宫办公室召开记者会宣布，和英国达成重要贸易协议，进一步开放美国产品进入英国市场，同时英也取消许多非关 税障碍，让美国产品未来可快速通过英海关，Truth Social 上发文： 今天对美国来说是不可思议的一天，因为我们达成了第一份公平、开放和互惠 ...

加拿大央行高级副行长罗杰斯：对冲基金在压力时期更有可能从关键市场撤退，带来额外的波动性。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a slight upward trend today, recovering from the previous day's high opening and low closing, but trading volume decreased by 183.3 billion, down to 1.32 trillion, indicating cautious market sentiment [2] - Following a significant announcement from Trump regarding a "major trade agreement" with a certain major country, gold prices fell nearly 2% [3][4] - Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the Chinese stock market, maintaining an "overweight" rating and raising the target points for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to 78 and 4400, respectively, suggesting potential increases of 7% and 15% [4] Investment Strategies - In the current complex market environment, ordinary investors are advised to follow institutional investors rather than making independent decisions, as institutions have greater capital and expertise [5] - A common pitfall for investors is the tendency to chase price movements, leading to losses. Understanding the underlying trading logic is crucial to avoid this [5][7] - Institutions often increase their trading frequency of buying low and selling high, which can mislead individual investors if they only focus on price trends [7][9] Institutional Behavior - Institutions can be more cunning than individual investors, and understanding the overall market trading behavior can provide insights into their strategies [9] - An example illustrates that at price peaks, institutions may lock in profits and even short-sell, while at price lows, they may aggressively buy back shares, indicating a bullish intent [7][9]