时政要闻 《通知》明确，今年政府采购领域整治重点内容依旧聚焦"四类"违规违法行为。如采购人倾斜照顾本地 企业，指向特定供应商或特定产品，以供应商注册地、所有制形式、组织形式、股权结构、投资者国 别、经营年限、经营规模、财务指标等不合理条件对供应商实行差别歧视待遇；代理机构违规收费、逾 期退还保证金；供应商提供虚假的检测报告、认证证书、合同业绩、中小企业声明函等材料谋取中标； 供应商投标文件相互混装、异常一致，投标保证金从同一账户转出，委托同一单位或个人编制投标文 件、办理投标事宜等恶意串通行为。 金融监管总局等两部门：未来五年基本建成高质量综合普惠金融体系，强化民营企业信贷支持 近日，金融监管总局、中国人民银行联合发布《银行业保险业普惠金融高质量发展实施方案》（以下简 称《实施方案》），从优化普惠金融服务体系、巩固提升普惠信贷体系和能力、加强普惠保险体系建 设、组织保障等方面出发，提出六部分16条措施。 《实施方案》强调，实现普惠金融高质量发展，必须加强党中央集中统一领导，供给多层次、多样化的 普惠金融服务，持续提升覆盖面和可得性，推动降低综合成本，不断提升普惠金融服务人民群众生产生 活的能力和水平。 《实施 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodities including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches such as cautious bullishness, short - selling, and range - bound trading based on the specific situation of each commodity [2][4][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,580 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, while the demand from the aluminum product industry weakens. With a favorable macro - environment but potential downward risks in the fundamentals, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed at 2,985 yuan/ton, down 1.34% from the previous trading day. The alumina plants' production is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is also stable. It is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 contract of zinc closed at 22,315 yuan/ton, down 1.17% from the previous trading day. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [2]. - **Lead**: The 2507 contract of lead closed at 17,070 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous trading day. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 09 contract of industrial silicon closed at 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The futures price is expected to trade in a wide range [2][3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the near - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell at high prices [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The 08 contract of polysilicon closed at 32,700 yuan/ton, down 835 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the futures premium has narrowed. It is recommended to exit the single - side position and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 710.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral in the short - term, but there is an over - supply situation in the medium - term. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract, and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 813 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of coking coal are relatively loose, and the futures are over - valued. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean market lacks new drivers. The short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound state, and the domestic soybean meal follows the international cost. The focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract of corn trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is falling. The supply and demand of corn are tightening, and it is expected that the futures price will trade with a bullish bias [6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of sugar closed at 5,716 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high, and the domestic sugar price is expected to trade weakly. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market, sell call options, and lock in the price for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fluctuated, and the domestic cotton futures price is bullish. The sown area of US cotton has decreased, while the domestic sown area is higher than expected. It is recommended to buy at low prices and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is weak. The supply is decreasing marginally but still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is increasing. The short - term market is in a weak seasonal stage, and it is necessary to pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract of eggs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is low. The futures price is expected to trade in a range [7]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is rising. The short - term price is expected to be bullish, but the medium - term price may decline [7]. - **Apples**: The futures price of apples is affected by the early - maturing varieties. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving marginally. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [8][9]. - **PVC**: The 09 contract of PVC closed at 4,834 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4,950 [9]. - **PTA**: The PX price is stable, and the PTA supply is decreasing in the short - term. The polyester demand is mixed. It is recommended to hold long positions in PX, look for positive spread opportunities in PTA in the short - term, and short - sell the processing margin in the long - term [9]. - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract of rubber closed at 14,095 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The raw material price is falling, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term market is range - bound. It is recommended to hold short positions above 14,000 and hold positive spreads in RU - NR [9]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract of glass closed at 980 yuan/ton, down 3.7%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [9][10]. - **PP**: The PP main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply is at a high level, and the demand is mixed. The market is in a balanced state. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is in a range - bound state. The short - term demand is strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract declined slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The 09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,165 yuan/ton, down 2.8%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market is in a bottom - range trading state. It is recommended to hedge and sell out - of - the - money call options above 1,400 [11].

中煤能源 20250701 摘要 中煤能源长协煤履约率维持高位，得益于与终端客户的紧密合作及国家 政策支持，一二季度履约率均高于 90%，显著优于部分因现货与长协倒 挂导致履约率降至 50%左右的企业。 公司成本管控严格，预计二季度及全年仍将维持行业内较低水平，过去 几年在行业整体上升趋势下仍能保持成本基本不变，甚至个别季度低于 以往水平。 预计今年煤价将维持当前水平或小幅上升，全年价格不会低于目前水平。 展望 2026 年，预计煤价中枢将略高于 2025 年，焦煤价格预计不会跌 破当前低位水平。 中煤能源坚持稳健分红原则，2024 年度现金分红比例已提高至 35%，2025 年中期计划继续分红，未来分红比例可能超过 35%，但具 体数值尚无法确定。 2025 年资本开支计划约为 210 亿元，未来三年预计维持在 150 亿至 200 亿元之间，主要用于在建矿井、化工项目、电力项目和新能源项目。 里毕无烟煤矿和苇子沟动力煤矿预计在 2026 年底投产，榆林二期煤化 工项目预计在 2026 年底全线贯通，可能在 2027 年底看到一定规模。 国盛证券看好中煤能源，认为其估值存在修复空间，资产负债表及分红 情况向 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 新品迭代持续供能，管理赋能中长期增长 今年以来，各食品饮料公司在新品/新渠道上的突破持续受到较高关注度。横向对比看，新乳业推新能力突 出，有望拉动业绩增长提速，带来新增量。1）激励考核层面，新品贡献率为公司考核的核心指标之一，当年 推出的新品收入占公司整体10%以上的目标可驱动公司整体持续推新，并通过新品迭代获取收入增量，如重点 单品活润即通过升级迭代（1.0大果粒/2.0轻食杯/3.0轻食瓶），保持较高收入增速。2）创新机制层面，自上而 下和自下而上相结合的方式为公司提供充分的创新环境，公司总部每年年底会确定后续新品方向，在部分子公 司进行试点，根据成效逐步推往全国。子公司可结合当地情况，自行申报新品。新品也为新渠道的切入提供抓 手，如近期朝日唯品在山姆导入的新品芭乐酸奶终端动销表现良好，已成为又一款爆品单品。 产品结构优化+成本红利提升盈利水平 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权 ...

Group 1 - The new credit reporting service fee standards will save users approximately 1.1 billion yuan annually starting from July 1 [1] - From July 1, 2025, the baseline service fee for commercial banks querying corporate credit reports will decrease from 20 yuan to 9 yuan, and for personal credit reports from 2 yuan to 1 yuan [1] - Certain financial institutions, including rural commercial banks and consumer finance companies, will benefit from preferential pricing, with corporate credit report fees set at 4.5 yuan and personal credit report fees at 0.5 yuan [1] Group 2 - Individuals can query their credit reports for free online, and the first two queries at a physical counter are also free, with subsequent queries reduced from 10 yuan to 5 yuan [2] - The fee for accounts receivable pledge registration will be halved from 30 yuan to 15 yuan, and other registration fees will also see significant reductions [2] - The reduction in credit reporting costs is expected to lower overall financing costs for financial institutions, which could benefit small and medium-sized financial entities significantly [2]

采写：南都·湾财社记者陈镜安 特斯拉官网显示，7月1日，特斯拉Model 3/Y长续航全轮驱动版迎来升级，其中，特斯拉将Model 3长续 航版售价上调1万元，现售价28.55万元，Model Y长续航版则维持原31.35万元售价不变。 （文章来源：南方都市报） 新版本续航有所提升。Model 3长续航全轮驱动版CLTC续航增至753公里，百公里加速提升至3.8秒。 Model Y长续航全轮驱动版CLTC续航增至750公里。 不似友商被迫加入"降价潮"，特斯拉对于价格调整掌握着主动权。特斯拉对外事务副总裁陶琳曾表示， 特斯拉坚持以成本定价，并指出，特斯拉价格调整的背后，涵盖了无数工程创新，实质上是独一无二的 成本控制之极佳定律，包括不限于整车集成设计、产线设计、供应链管理、甚至以毫秒级优化机械臂协 同路线。 当降价成为主流，特斯拉却再次特立独行地上调售价。 但特斯拉面临的市场竞争依旧激烈。乘联会数据显示，5月特斯拉中国批发销量为61662辆,同比下降 15%，已连续8个月出现销量同比下滑。去年，特斯拉曾短时间内遭遇6大品牌的新品对标。日前，小米 汽车第二款新车型YU7上市，配置参数亦全方位对标Model Y， ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the safety concerns surrounding low-priced power banks, emphasizing that products priced above 200 yuan are generally considered safer due to better material quality and manufacturing standards [1][11][12] - The industry is facing a crisis due to price wars and internal competition, leading to compromised quality and safety in power bank production [3][13] Cost Analysis - A typical power bank with a capacity of 10,000 to 20,000 mAh has a reasonable cost of around 100 yuan, which includes high-quality battery cells, safety features, and manufacturing costs [1][5][11] - The core component, the battery cell, accounts for about 50% of the total cost, with reputable brands like CATL and Yiwei's battery cells priced between 45 to 60 yuan each [3][5] Industry Trends - The recent recall of power banks by brands like Romoss and Anker has created a significant demand for replacements, with estimates suggesting millions of units may need to be replaced [11] - Consumers are advised to prioritize well-known brands and products with 3C certification, particularly those priced above 200 yuan, as these are more likely to meet safety standards [11][12] Quality Discrepancies - A comparison of recalled and non-recalled power banks revealed significant differences in build quality, safety features, and thermal management, with recalled units lacking essential protections [8][10] - The lack of temperature protection and inferior materials in lower-priced models has been linked to safety incidents, highlighting the importance of quality control in manufacturing [10][12] Future Outlook - The current crisis is seen as a pivotal moment for the industry, prompting a potential shift towards better quality control and transparency in the supply chain [13] - Brands that fail to maintain rigorous quality standards may face increased risks of being eliminated from the market as regulatory scrutiny intensifies [13]

Core Insights - The company is addressing production challenges by enhancing its internal capabilities, particularly in the production of glass bottle tubes, which are critical to its operations [1][2] - Significant cost reductions have been achieved through technological innovations and process optimizations, leading to improved efficiency and reduced reliance on external suppliers [2][3] Group 1: Production Challenges - The company faces a critical supply issue with the glass bottle tubes, requiring nearly one million units annually, which impacts production plans and costs [1] - External supply disruptions have led to production slowdowns, emphasizing the need for self-sufficiency in key components [1] Group 2: Technological Innovations - A new intelligent production unit has been implemented, automating the production of glass bottle tubes and reducing costs by 5 yuan per unit through structural optimization and energy savings [2] - The company has achieved a 99.8% qualification rate for self-produced tubes, significantly reducing waste and further lowering costs [2] Group 3: Cost Control Measures - Various cost-saving measures have been introduced across production processes, including adjustments to drying processes and repurposing idle equipment, leading to substantial monthly savings [3] - The company aims to enhance its competitive edge and risk resilience by focusing on cost control in critical areas such as precious metal processing and chemical agents [3]

Core Insights - A "down-to-earth" advertisement unexpectedly gained popularity, highlighting a rural girl's success in opening seven hotpot restaurants, reflecting significant changes in the business landscape [2][3] Group 1: Impact of Short Video and Digital Tools - The rise of short video platforms has enabled small businesses to break physical space limitations, allowing them to reach a national audience through engaging content [3][9] - The report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences indicates that digital technology is helping small merchants find new growth opportunities by combining offline personal connections with online reach [3][9] Group 2: Success Stories of Small Businesses - Guo Luncai, a rural girl from Sichuan, leveraged her personal story and real-time updates on her hotpot restaurant's journey to attract a large following, resulting in significant sales and rapid expansion [4][6] - Xiaoling, a live-streaming host, transformed a modest flower shop into a successful chain by showcasing local culture and engaging with customers through live broadcasts [6][8] Group 3: Structural Challenges and Solutions - The service industry faces a "cost disease" where rising costs cannot be offset by efficiency gains, particularly for small and micro enterprises [9][10] - Digital tools like live streaming are providing new solutions to this long-standing issue by allowing businesses to reach a larger audience without the constraints of physical location [9][10] Group 4: Transformation of Business Models - The shift from traditional business models to a digital-first approach is evident, with businesses now focusing on online validation before rapid expansion [15][20] - The integration of online and offline experiences is creating a seamless customer journey, enhancing the visibility and profitability of small shops [15][20] Group 5: Emotional Connection and Customer Engagement - Short videos are fostering emotional connections between businesses and consumers, transforming service consumption from mere functionality to identity and cultural recognition [17][19] - The transparency of operations through live streaming builds trust and encourages customer engagement, turning consumers into brand advocates [19][20] Group 6: Economic Trends and Future Outlook - The service sector's consumption share is projected to rise to 52% by 2030, with a growth rate of 9.2%, indicating a significant shift in consumer behavior [20][21] - The digital transformation of small businesses is not only vital for their survival but also plays a crucial role in the broader economic transition [20][21]

PX成本支撑偏弱，关注TA高加工费供应压力增大可能 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 06月30日，PX 主力合约收6796.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.65%，基差为 40.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4798.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.42%，基差 为222.0元/吨。 成本端，06月30日，布油主力合约收盘66.34美元/桶。WTI收65.07美元/ 桶。需求端，06月30日，轻纺城成交总量为663.0万米，15 日平均成交为 620.33万米。 PX：成本端受国际原油价格维持窄幅震荡趋势，能提供的支撑相对有限。 亚洲地区新增装置投产预期可能带来供应压力，叠加下游PTA加工费修复空 间有限或抑制原料采购积极性，预计PX价格将维持震荡格局。 PTA：PTA下游聚酯开工率高位，终端纺织成交回暖，需求端有所反弹。基 差走强反映现货偏紧，PX成本支撑边际减弱，PTA加工费高位下开工负荷或 继续维持，关注供应端恢复压力 ...