证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 07 02 年 月 日 房地产 6 月百强房企月度销售报告：6 月年中冲刺，百强房企销售额环比增长但同比降幅扩大 6 月为房企半年度业绩冲刺节点，百强房企销售金额环比增长，但受供应约束以 及上年高基数影响，同比仍呈现下降趋势且降幅扩大。从累计情况看，1-6 月 TOP100 房企实现操盘口径销售金额 16526.9 亿元，同比降低 10.8%，较上月累 计同比降低 3.7pct；权益口径销售金额为 13013.6 亿元，同比降低 11.5%，较上 月累计同比降低 4.9pct。从 6 月单月情况看，TOP100 房企实现单月操盘口径销售 金额 3389.8 亿元，同比降低 22.8%，环比增长 14.7%；权益口径销售金额 2667.2 亿元，同比降低 26.4%，环比增长 15.1%。 上半年不同梯队房企销售额同比均下跌，其中 TOP21-30 和 TOP31-50 房企跌 幅较小。从 2025 年 1-6 月操盘口径销售金额来看，跌幅最小的是 TOP21-30 房 企，同比下降 1.0%；TOP31-50 房企排名第 2，同比下降 3.0%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market has shown signs of recovery in the first half of the year, with significant increases in housing transactions compared to the same period in 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2023, the total transaction volume for new and second-hand housing in Shanghai reached 13.11 million square meters, marking the highest level since 2022 for the same period [1] - This represents a year-on-year increase of 17% in housing transactions [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The recovery in the real estate market is attributed to the effective implementation of various policies, including "沪九条" and "沪七条" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully navigated through a debt repayment peak and is now focusing on development while prioritizing financial safety. Financing - The liquidity crisis related to public debt has been resolved, with a remaining balance of 560 million yuan [3] - The company plans to repay approximately 20 billion yuan in public debt throughout 2024, with only two public debts remaining: 6 million yuan due in October and 500 million yuan due in April next year [3] - As of the end of Q1 this year, the company had interest-bearing liabilities of 73.5 billion yuan, with 96.3% being bank loans [3] - The company is observing market opportunities for financing while maintaining a cautious approach to debt structure and duration [3][4] Market Conditions - The real estate market in China is experiencing a prolonged adjustment period, lasting over four years, with a historical trend of supply not meeting demand [6] - Despite current challenges, the market is projected to maintain a scale of 4 to 5 trillion yuan in the next 10 to 15 years [6] - The company believes that investments in first- and second-tier cities will show resilience during this adjustment phase [6][7] Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes safety in its investment strategy, with no specific investment quota set [8][10] - The company has paused investments during the debt repayment peak but is looking to resume cautiously as the debt issues have been resolved [9] - The total land reserve is approximately 29.16 million square meters, with a land reserve value of about 432.5 billion yuan [10]

网上有个段子，讲的是一个老外在北京开了个酒店，十年亏了将近上百万，创业失败让他心灰意冷，走 之前他家房子卖了，没想到赚了大几百万， 所以如果你在本世纪初手上有点钱，不管是在哪里买房，北上广深随便1套房，估计到现在都可以让你 变得身价千万。 但如果你是在2021年最狂热顶峰买的，那就只能用一个"惨不忍睹"来形容了。 就拿深圳来说吧，2021年房价涨到了最高峰，平均单价甚至高达七八万每平米，结果才两三年时间，如 今均价已经降到五六万，甚至有的只有4万左右，百平米的房子，啥都没干，两年时间就亏了200多万。 面对当前扑朔迷离的市场走势，很多人开始疑惑，未来五年，房子究竟是白菜价还是黄金价？ 当然，这几年，为了避免房价剧烈波动，上面频频出台各种救市措施，从一开始上调公积金贷款额度， 到连续下调房贷利率，再到如今，首付降到15%。能用得着基本上都用得上了，如今的价格，大城市还 算稳定，小城市还一直保持着阴跌。 论过去30年，什么商品保值增值最快，大家一致意见，非房子莫属！ 拿数据说话从98年到2021年，全国平均房价从2000块一直涨到1.6万，足足涨了超五倍，单看北上深这 样的大城市，涨幅更是惊人。 说白了，再好的市 ...

Group 1 - The company held a meeting on June 30, 2025, via communication methods, with all four independent directors present, complying with relevant regulations [1] - The independent directors unanimously approved the proposal for the subsidiary Guangzhou Asset Management Co., Ltd. to increase its stake in Yuexiu Property Holdings Limited, indicating a strategic alignment with the company's business direction [1] - The investment will be conducted through the Hong Kong Stock Connect in the secondary market, ensuring compliance with legal and regulatory standards, and is expected to enhance collaboration and mutual benefits between the two entities [1] Group 2 - The company emphasizes the importance of monitoring real estate industry policies and market developments, as well as the performance and stock price trends of the target company to ensure successful investment outcomes [1] - The independent directors have advised the board to ensure that related directors abstain from voting on this matter during the board meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yuexiu Capital has agreed to allow its subsidiary, Guangzhou Asset, to increase its stake in Yuexiu Property through the Hong Kong stock market, aiming to deepen cooperation and secure stable investment returns [1] Group 1: Investment Details - Guangzhou Asset will use up to 204 million yuan of its own funds to purchase additional shares of Yuexiu Property, with authorization valid until May 30, 2026 [1] - In 2024, Guangzhou Asset was previously authorized to use up to 557 million yuan, resulting in the purchase of 78.38 million shares, accounting for 1.95% of the company, with a total expenditure of 352 million yuan [1] - The current increase in stake is intended to utilize the remaining 204 million yuan from the previous authorization [1] Group 2: Business Strategy and Performance - Yuexiu Capital emphasizes that the increase in stake will enhance collaboration with Yuexiu Property, particularly in exploring real estate distress relief and other business opportunities [1] - Yuexiu Property has shown resilience in a challenging market, achieving a contract sales figure of 114.5 billion yuan in 2024, ranking 8th among peers [1] - In the first half of the year, Yuexiu Property's sales reached 61.7 billion yuan, making it one of the few companies in the top 100 to experience year-on-year sales growth, also ranking 8th [1] Group 3: Market Position and Land Acquisition - The company focuses on key regions, particularly in first and second-tier cities, with land acquisition expenditures of 10.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year, including 3.4 billion yuan in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, ranking second in land acquisition [1] - In April, during a land auction in Hangzhou, Yuexiu Property won a plot after 82 rounds of bidding for 1.1 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 58.23%, indicating confidence in core land and improved products [1] Group 4: Market Outlook - Despite a 15% decline in stock price this year, resulting in a total market capitalization of 17.3 billion HKD, the company is expected to benefit from positive signals released by the State Council regarding the real estate market [1] - Analysts suggest that market stabilization in the second half of the year will depend on policy support, with ongoing differentiation among cities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yuexiu Capital has authorized its subsidiary Guangzhou Asset to increase its stake in Yuexiu Property through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, using up to 204 million yuan of its own funds, with the aim of deepening strategic cooperation and achieving stable investment returns [1] Group 1: Company Actions - In 2024, Yuexiu Capital previously authorized Guangzhou Asset to use up to 557 million yuan for increasing its stake in Yuexiu Property, resulting in the purchase of 78.38 million shares, accounting for 1.95% of the total shares, with a total expenditure of 352 million yuan [1] - The recent increase in stake is intended to further explore cooperation in real estate distress resolution, restructuring, and asset management, aligning with Guangzhou Asset's strategic direction [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Yuexiu Property achieved a contract sales amount of 114.5 billion yuan in 2024, ranking 8th in the industry, and reported a sales figure of 61.7 billion yuan in the first half of the year, making it one of the few companies in the TOP 100 to see a year-on-year increase [2] - The company focused on the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and key cities in East, Central-West, and Northern China, spending 10.5 billion yuan on land acquisitions in the first half of the year, with 3.4 billion yuan concentrated in the Greater Bay Area, ranking second in the industry [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Yuexiu Property demonstrated strong competition for scarce land in core areas, winning a land bid in Hangzhou with a premium rate of 58.23%, totaling 1.1 billion yuan, setting a record for the area with a floor price of 39,146 yuan per square meter [2] - Despite a 15% decline in stock price this year, the total market capitalization stands at 17.3 billion HKD, with positive signals from recent government meetings aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is expected to experience low-level fluctuations in the near term, with recommendations to short-sell during high points [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Upstream calcium carbide prices remain stable, while PVC operating rates decreased by 0.53 percentage points to 78.09%, which is relatively high for this time of year [1] - Downstream operations continue to decline slightly, with cautious procurement observed [1] - Social inventory has increased slightly but remains at a high level, indicating significant inventory pressure [1] Policy and Market Influences - India's BIS policy has been postponed for six months until December 24, 2025, which may impact PVC exports from China due to the upcoming rainy season and anti-dumping measures [1] - Taiwan's Formosa Plastics raised its July prices by $10 to $25 per ton, but high-priced exports are facing challenges [1] Real Estate Sector Impact - Real estate data showed slight improvement from January to May 2025, but year-on-year figures remain negative, with significant declines in investment, sales, and completed area [1] - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has rebounded but is at the lowest level for the same period in previous years, indicating that real estate recovery will take time [1] Price Trends and Futures Market - In June, PVC maintenance increased, leading to slightly higher operating rates, but weak support from calcium carbide prices and lack of substantial demand keep PVC under pressure [1] - The PVC 2509 futures contract saw a downward trend with a minimum price of 4807 yuan/ton and a closing price of 4821 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.09% [1] - As of July 1, the mainstream price of calcium carbide method PVC in East China dropped to 4720 yuan/ton, with a basis of -101 yuan/ton, indicating a low level [1]

重点 23 城 2025 年 6 月涉宅用地推出，成交规划建面月度环比波动提 2025 年 6 月中国房地产土地市场数据点评 规划建面波动上升，溢价率水平显著提高 2025 年 07 月 01 日 升。截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，全国重点 23 城涉宅用地供应 139 宗，推出规 划建面 925.9517 万平米，环比降低 18.3%；成交 176 宗，成交规划建面 723.8863 万平米；成交土地出让金 1505.742 亿元。 图1：2022-2025 年重点 23 城成交土地出让金与月度环比涨跌幅 293 532 852 1988 1392 3139 2795 1016 3490 1911 1212 2410 159 612 942 1506 1495 1993 1284 1748 1495 2158 1260 3434 516 551 820 707 391 871 795 721 919 1192 1769 3114 681 869 1110 913 577 1506 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 0 500 1000 1500 2 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a divergence in market concentration among typical real estate companies in Guangdong Province, with the sales share of the TOP100 companies decreasing from 84.3% in 2020 to 73.1% in 2024, while the TOP10 companies' sales share increased from 36.2% to 37.5% during the same period [1] - There has been significant change in the composition of typical real estate companies, with 29 out of the TOP100 companies from the 2020 report no longer appearing in the 2025 report, and only 4 out of the TOP10 and 6 out of the TOP20 companies remaining [1] - The presence of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) has grown, with their share in the TOP100 companies increasing from 28% in 2020 to 46% in 2025, and in the TOP10 companies from 40% to 80% [1] Group 2 - The report suggests that despite the end of the rapid growth phase in the real estate market, demand in Guangdong Province will remain substantial during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with significant incremental space still available [2] - The report highlights that market differentiation among cities in Guangdong will intensify due to factors such as resource endowment, industrial foundation, and policy environment, with core cities and hot real estate markets remaining active while some third and fourth-tier cities may face pressure [2] - As the incremental market becomes saturated, revitalizing and upgrading existing stock will become a key supply source for the real estate market, with companies encouraged to enhance the value of old neighborhoods, urban villages, and old factories [2]