欧洲央行副行长金多斯：欧洲央行不打算对现有工具做出太多改变。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, indicated that Europeans are feeling anxious about the strength of the euro, suggesting that the European Central Bank (ECB) may lower interest rates to help bring the euro down [1] Group 1 - European concerns regarding the strong euro are prevalent among its citizens [1] - The potential for the ECB to implement interest rate cuts is being discussed as a measure to address the euro's strength [1]

Group 1 - Franklin Templeton predicts that the European Central Bank (ECB) may consider raising interest rates by the end of the year due to increased defense spending potentially boosting the economy [2] - David Zahn, head of European fixed income at Franklin Templeton, believes that by 2026, Europe will show low inflation and strong growth, suggesting a shift in ECB policy towards rate hikes [2] - Current market expectations lean towards three more rate cuts by the ECB this year, each by 25 basis points, maintaining the deposit rate at 1.5% until mid-next year [2][3] Group 2 - The Dutch central bank president, Knot, indicates that the upcoming ECB meeting in June will be complex, with potential downward revisions to inflation forecasts [3] - Zahn expects the ECB deposit rate to bottom out between 1.75% and 1.5% by September, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the economy [3] - The focus is shifting back to the economic boost from European defense plans, with Germany initiating significant debt financing for defense and infrastructure spending [3] Group 3 - Franklin Templeton's European total return fund has returned approximately 3.6% over the past year, compared to a benchmark return of 6.5% [4] - The company has reduced its exposure to Spain, France, and Italy, anticipating widening yield spreads between their 10-year bonds and German bonds [3][4] - The outlook for the UK is negative, with all UK government bond positions sold off due to severe fiscal conditions, leading to rising long-term borrowing costs [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Franklin Templeton suggests that the European Central Bank (ECB) will consider interest rate hikes by the end of this year due to potential economic growth driven by defense spending [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - David Zahn, head of the European fixed income department, indicates that by 2026, the economic situation in Europe will be very clear, with low inflation rates and strong economic growth [1] - This perspective contrasts with current market expectations, where traders anticipate three more rate cuts from the ECB this year, each by 25 basis points [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Projections - Traders expect the deposit rate to remain at 1.5% until mid-next year following the anticipated rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank officials are preparing for further interest rate cuts due to anticipated long-term economic damage from U.S. tariffs, despite potential softening of stance by the Trump administration [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Most policymakers left the IMF meetings in Washington feeling disappointed, expecting that Trump's unpredictable behavior will continue to increase uncertainty, suppress spending and investment, and ultimately raise inflation in the near future [1] - Economists from Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley predict that to stimulate demand, deposit rates, currently at 2.25%, will be lowered to at least 1.5% this year [1]

欧洲央行管委Kazaks：如果（欧元区）增长预期骤降（前景继续恶化），欧洲央行只应当考虑降息至中 性利率水平的下方。 如果降息过多，会挤压（后续的）政策空间。（彭博） ...

欧洲央行管委诺特：6月降息还是维持不变，现在就采取立场还为时过早。 ...

欧洲央行管委兼法国央行行长Villeroy：欧洲央行较美联储提前降息是公平且适宜的。 ...