Group 1 - The total scale of central government subsidies for this year is 300 billion yuan, funded through the issuance of ultra-long-term special bonds [1][7] - As of May 31, 2025, the five major categories of consumer goods for the old-for-new policy have driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued directly to consumers [4] - The old-for-new policy has significantly boosted sales in various sectors, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture increasing by 53%, 33%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively in May [4] Group 2 - The increase in consumer spending in May was attributed to factors such as the "May Day" and "Dragon Boat Festival" holidays, early promotions for the "6.18" shopping festival, and the expansion of the old-for-new policy to include digital products [2][3] - Some regions, such as Guangxi and Xinjiang, have had to suspend local old-for-new subsidy policies due to rapid depletion of allocated funds [7] - Experts suggest that while the old-for-new policy has been effective, its marginal utility may be decreasing as durable goods like home appliances and cars are affected, indicating a need for potential expansion of the subsidy scope [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangxi Commerce Department announced a temporary suspension of the "old for new" subsidy program for consumer goods starting June 20, 2025, affecting various categories including automobiles and home appliances, despite the overall success of the program since its implementation in 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The suspension will affect the subsidy activities for automobile replacement, home appliance upgrades, 3C digital products, electric bicycles, and home renovation subsidies [1]. - The "old for new" subsidy program will continue throughout the year, with the specific resumption date to be announced later [2]. Group 2: Program Impact - Since the implementation of the "old for new" policy, Guangxi has conducted over 6,000 related events, with more than 5 million consumers participating and receiving nearly 65 billion yuan in subsidies [2][3]. - The program has led to significant sales increases, with home appliance sales reaching 3.226 million units and 100,000 units for 3C digital products, alongside 250,000 vehicles sold under the "old for new" scheme, of which 76.4% were new energy vehicles [3]. Group 3: National Context - The national "old for new" policy, which began in 2024, covers various consumer goods and has expanded to include consumer electronics in 2025, offering subsidies of 15% of the product price for eligible items [3]. - As of May 31, 2025, the program has generated a total sales volume of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies distributed to consumers [4].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 790.50 | 0.00 | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1374.00 | -1.00↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 685871.00 | -14200.00↓ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 54570.00 | -1510.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -40681.00 | +6519.00↑ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -1688.00 | -163.00↓ | | | JM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 23.50 | -1.50↓ | J1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 27.50 | -0.50↓ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 0.00 | 0.00 | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 90.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） | 710.00 | +9.00↑ ...

热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/6/19 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,103 | +1↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1488632 | -13154↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 90,064 | -8938↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 5 | +3↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumer market in China is showing stable growth, with significant increases in retail sales and specific categories driven by policies and consumer behavior [1] Group 1: Overall Retail Performance - From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 20.32 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [1] - In May, the total retail sales amounted to 4.13 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, the fastest monthly growth rate in 2024 [1] Group 2: Category-Specific Growth - Retail sales of household appliances and mobile phones have surged, with retail sales of major categories such as home appliances, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture increasing by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively [1] - The retail volume of passenger cars in May saw a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [1] - Sales of upgraded products are also on the rise, with retail sales of sports and entertainment goods and gold and silver jewelry increasing by 28.3% and 21.8% respectively [1]

Core Insights - In May, China's retail sales of goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Retail sales of goods in above-designated size enterprises grew by 8.2%, with an acceleration of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [1] Group 1: Consumer Trends - The policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones has shown a significant impact, with retail sales of home appliances, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture increasing by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The retail volume of passenger cars in May saw a year-on-year increase of 13.3% according to data from the Automobile Circulation Association [1] Group 2: Upgraded Product Sales - Sales of upgraded consumer goods have experienced rapid growth, with retail sales of sports and entertainment products and gold and silver jewelry increasing by 28.3% and 21.8% year-on-year, respectively [1]

"618"期间，线上线下促销活动持续多日，消费者对于以旧换新的热情不减。然而，社交媒体也出现一些关于 部分地区暂时无法申领"国补"的讨论。针对相关热点话题，记者在多地进行了采访。 5月底以来，关于重庆、江苏、湖北等地"国补"暂时无法领取的讨论，在社交媒体上引发关注。 记者查阅云闪付App重庆消费品以旧换新页面，一则公告提及绿色智能家电、家装厨卫"焕新"27个小类补贴 资金已使用完毕。 近日在登录淘宝的国补专区时，记者也看到，江苏省的页面曾出现"江苏国补活动升级中，升级期间您将无法 领取"的提示。京东国补专区湖北省的页面也曾出现"湖北智能家居国补活动升级中"等提醒。 消费品以旧换新是国家层面部署推进的一项重要政策。为何各地执行落地后，"国补"使用情况不尽相同？ 记者通过调研发现，在国家确定补贴规则"大框架"的基础上，各地拥有一定的自主权，可以确定国补落地 的"小细节"，如具体如何申领使用补贴等。 中国社科院财经战略研究院财政研究室主任、研究员何代欣认为，少数地区政策实施进度较快，跟当地消费 结构和消费者积极性有关。"这也说明市场对'国补'的需求旺盛，政策激发了消费活力。" 今年以来，消费品以旧换新政策"加力"又 ...

晨报 成材 成材：关注周度基本面情况 钢价整理 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 19 日 逻辑：本周，唐山主流样本钢厂平均钢坯含税成本 2810 元/吨，周环 比下调 22 元/吨，与 6 月 18 日普方坯出厂价格 2910 元/吨相比，钢厂平 均盈利 100 元/吨。国家相关主管部门表示，3000 亿元消费品以旧换新支 持资金已下达 1620 亿元，剩余资金将有序下达。有关部门正指导地方平 稳有序使用"国补"资金，推动政策发挥更大效能。截至 6 月 18 日，调 研统计华东区域 6 月份钢坯投放增量，整体厂家接单在 47 万吨左右，其 中出口订单占 36.4%。厂家钢坯投放增量明显，主要由于螺纹利润收窄， 轧线检修增多。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 ...

财经聚焦丨一些地区取消"国补"？不存在的——消费品以旧换新热点追踪 "618"期间，线上线下促销活动持续多日，消费者对于以旧换新的热情不减。然而，社交媒体 也出现一些关于部分地区暂时无法申领"国补"的讨论。针对相关热点话题，记者在多地进行 了采访。 5月底以来，关于重庆、江苏、湖北等地"国补"暂时无法领取的讨论，在社交媒体上引发关 注。 记者查阅云闪付App重庆消费品以旧换新页面，一则公告提及绿色智能家电、家装厨卫"焕 新"27个小类补贴资金已使用完毕。 近日在登录淘宝的国补专区时，记者也看到，江苏省的页面曾出现"江苏国 补活动升级中，升 级期间您将无法领取"的提示。京东国补专区湖北省的页面也曾出现"湖北智能家居国补活动 升级中"等提醒。 业内人士表示，少部分地区阶段性地完善了"国补"政策实施节奏，实际上消费品以旧换新工 作将持续全年，消费者每月每周都有参与申领"国补"的机会。最近一些企业、平台和自媒体 借机炒作，搞饥饿营销，营造恐慌情绪，消费者要特别注意辨别。实际上，除上述少数地区 外，大多数省份国补优惠活动也在正常推进。 消费品以旧换新是国家层面部署推进的一项重要政策。为何各地执行落地后，"国补"使用情 ...

Group 1 - The drama "The Lychee of Chang'an" has attracted over 30 brands for advertising, including major names like Tmall, Budweiser, and Longan Auto [1][2] - Various products have been launched in collaboration with the drama, such as the "Guifei-style" lychee from Baiguoyuan and several co-branded items from Luckin Coffee [1] - The enthusiasm for "The Lychee of Chang'an" is evident in the oversaturation of advertising from infant formula brands and dairy products [1] Group 2 - As of June 17, "The Lychee of Chang'an" ranked second in the drama ratings, behind "Lingjiang Xian" [4][5] - Tencent Video has played a crucial role in the success of "The Lychee of Chang'an," leveraging its ecosystem to create a mature business model that integrates the entire industry chain [6] Group 3 - The average price of pork in China's wholesale markets remained stable at 20.24 yuan per kilogram as of June 18 [14] - During the "618" shopping festival, the price of Feitian Moutai dropped below 2000 yuan, with the lowest price recorded at 1840 yuan on Pinduoduo [15]