Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has announced a 25% tariff on all goods imported from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, increasing pressure on these key allies in trade and military spending [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The 25% tariff on Japan is higher than the previously suspended "reciprocal tariff," indicating a significant escalation in pressure [2]. - Both Japan and South Korea have substantial trade surpluses with the U.S., making them primary targets for the Trump administration's tariff strategy aimed at correcting perceived trade imbalances [3]. - The imposition of tariffs is seen as a heavy burden for both countries, particularly given their reliance on exports to the U.S. for key industries like automotive [3]. Group 2: Military Spending Pressure - The Trump administration has repeatedly demanded that Japan and South Korea increase their military budgets and share more of the costs for U.S. troops stationed in their countries [3]. - Recent statements from Trump suggest that South Korea's payments for U.S. troop presence are "very low," further intensifying the pressure on both nations [3]. Group 3: Responses from Japan and South Korea - Japan's Prime Minister expressed regret over the tariff announcement and indicated a desire to negotiate terms that protect national interests while achieving a win-win outcome [4]. - South Korea is preparing for negotiations with a focus on national interests, emphasizing the need for thorough preparation in trade discussions with the U.S. [4]. - Both countries are employing a dual strategy of soft and hard measures in response to the tariffs, seeking concessions from the U.S. while protecting their core interests in critical sectors like automotive and agriculture [4]. Group 4: Public Sentiment and Trust Issues - Trust in the U.S. has significantly declined in Japan, with a recent poll showing only 22% of the population expressing trust, a drop of 12 percentage points from the previous year [6]. - In South Korea, the perception of the U.S. relationship has worsened, with a doubling of respondents rating the relationship as "bad" over the past year [7]. - The ongoing pressure from the Trump administration has led to a shift in public sentiment, with calls for both countries to assert more independence in their foreign policies [6][7].

智通财经7月9日电，美国MBA抵押贷款申请指数上周上升9.4%。 ...

本周观点 行 行业周报 业 美越达成贸易协议，关注美国关税政策变化下出口链走向 商品征收 20%关税，对通过越南转运输美的其他国家商品征收 40%关税，而 越南将对美国"完全开放市场"，美国企业能以零关税向越南销售产品。我 们认为，此次美国对越商品征收20%关税低于此前提议的46%关税计划，40% 转运关税模式大概率将成为近期美国关税谈判模板，建议关注美国关税政策 变化下出口链走向。 | 研 | | | | | | | | | | ——机械设备行业周报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 究 | 分析师： | 宁前羽 | | SAC | | NO： | | S1150522070001 | | 年 月 2025 07 09 | | 日 | | | 机械设备 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | |  行业要闻 | | | | | | | | | | | | 宁前羽 | ...

机构：全球资本对美信心下降 经济增长料承压 金十数据7月9日讯，瑞士再保险公司的经济学家表示，特朗普任期内贸易政策的波动性已经削弱了全球 资本对美国政府的信心，降低了美国资产作为全球资本避风港的地位。他们指出，由于全球供应链变得 效率低下以及美国国内产业更加保护主义，关税将对美国造成滞胀冲击。首席经济学家杰罗姆·哈格利 表示，美国消费者将因关税政策受到最严重的打击，并因为物价上涨而削减开支。这反过来又会对依赖 家庭消费的美国经济增长构成压力。预计今年美国GDP增长率为1.5%，低于2024年的2.8%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent confusion regarding U.S. military aid to Ukraine stems from Defense Secretary Mark Esper's unilateral decision to pause certain arms shipments without notifying the White House, leading to a chaotic internal decision-making process within the Trump administration [1][3][5]. Group 1: Decision-Making Process - Secretary Esper authorized the pause in arms shipments following President Trump's request for an evaluation of military stockpiles, but did not receive explicit instructions to halt aid to Ukraine [3][4]. - The decision to pause aid was reportedly influenced by Deputy Defense Secretary Elbridge Colby, who has been skeptical of large-scale military assistance to Ukraine [3][4]. - The Pentagon's announcement of the pause caught not only the White House off guard but also other key officials, including the U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and the Secretary of State [3][4]. Group 2: Military Aid Details - The halted shipment included dozens of Patriot missiles, thousands of 155mm artillery shells, and over 100 Hellfire missiles, which were already prepared for transport to Ukraine [4][5]. - Colby stated that the Pentagon was reviewing and adjusting the military aid to align with the goal of ending the conflict in Ukraine while maintaining U.S. military readiness [4][5]. Group 3: Internal Conflicts and Reactions - The decision to pause aid has been criticized internally, with military officials indicating that while some high-precision munitions are at low levels, they are not below the minimum required for military readiness [5][6]. - This incident marks the third time Esper has unilaterally halted aid to Ukraine without prior coordination with the White House or Congress, raising concerns about his decision-making approach [5][6]. - Colby has faced backlash for his unilateral actions, which have reportedly caused friction with both U.S. allies and within the government [6].

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 10 | 9510 | -88 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2586 | | | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 7 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) -712 期货市场 | 60 281867 | 6 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) -12874 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 273 567429 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | | 15732 | -2370 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -11828 | 2352 | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | | 3021 | 301 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 15663 | -136 | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | | 704.6 | ...

2025年中期策略展望 己日革之，待时而动 西南证券研究院 策略团队 程睿智 2025年7月 目录 一、海外：财政风险暴露,指示潜在的全球流动性冲击 二、国内：通缩预期缓解，激活持续淤积的自由超额流动性 三、A股：狭窄区间内的快速轮动 财政风险暴露 四、行业配置思路 1 流动性层级 市场流动性 全球气候 /降雨雪山融水 • 全球美元 流动性 江河里的水 • 国内宏观 流动性 农田灌溉沟渠 里的水 • 市场流动性 经济+政治 经济+政策 外资流动+风偏传导 数据来源：西南证券整理 2 全球流动性 国内宏观流动性 从债的视角，80年代以来到2022年之前，10年期美债利率有一条长期下行通道。过去每次利率触碰到下 行通道上轨形成的美债拐点无不与联储宽松有关。然而这个通道已经在22年后被向上突破，世界从全球 化走向对抗的同时，全球经济的平稳状态已经被打破。 10年期美债利率的长期下行通道（%） 标普500走势（左轴，%） 和10年期美债（右轴，%） 数据来源： 3 wind，西南证券整理 财政风险暴露 美元美债的背离：23年Q3的重演；美债上，美元下，反映的是财政风险的计价更加极致。 美元美债的背离 数据来源：IMF ...

Group 1: Core Perspectives - The meeting between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu highlighted a shared short-term victory over Iran's nuclear program, but underlying strategic differences remain evident [2][3] - Trump emphasizes a diplomatic approach to ensure Iran does not develop nuclear weapons, while Netanyahu advocates for more aggressive military actions to force Iran into significant concessions [3][4] Group 2: Divergence on Gaza Situation - Trump is pushing for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, aiming to present himself as a global peace broker, while Netanyahu is focused on completely dismantling Hamas, which complicates the peace process [4][5] - The gap between short-term ceasefire and long-term solutions remains significant, with Netanyahu expressing dissatisfaction over U.S. plans to restart nuclear negotiations with Iran [4][5] Group 3: Strategies and Alternatives - Netanyahu seeks a "Libya model" for Iran, demanding complete dismantlement of nuclear facilities under strict supervision, contrasting with Trump's desire for a diplomatic breakthrough [5][6] - Israel's backup plan involves ongoing military actions to prevent the resurgence of Iran's nuclear program, while the U.S. adopts a hedging strategy, balancing between military action and diplomatic engagement [6][7] Group 4: Unfinished Business - The narrative of Iran's nuclear program being destroyed is seen as a warning from Trump to avoid further demands, indicating a reluctance to deepen U.S. involvement [7] - Despite military setbacks for Iran, the potential for rebuilding its capabilities remains, suggesting that Netanyahu's objectives regarding Iran are far from complete [7]

美国关税反复扰动，黄金日内震荡下破！亚欧盘反弹承压，空头能否持续发力？立即观看超V推荐官 Jason的分析，马上进入直播间>>> 相关链接 ...

点击图片▲收听音频 1. 本文内容精选自2025年7月8日《每天听见吴晓波》的音频，会员可收听全部内 容，非会员可试听前1分钟。 【点击此处，收听音频】 2. 6月24日—7月25日期间购买《每天听见吴晓波》，可享"买1年得2年"的福利，还 送定制笔记本1本。 【点击此处，参与活动】 口述 / 吴晓波 （微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 几天前的7月3号下午，美国众议院以218票对214票的微弱优势，通过了特朗普政府的"大而 美"法案。 这项法案从4月草拟以来，就因为大幅减税、缩减联邦援助等内容而争议不断，并引发了美国两 党的激烈对抗。 无论是在众议院还是参议院，法案的投票都呈现出泾渭分明的党派划线。经过几个月的拉锯， 法案最终涉险过关。 7月4号是美国的独立日，特朗普选择在这一天正式签署"大而美"法案，他宣称法案是"摆脱国家 衰落的独立宣言"，是对独立日的"献礼"。那这项法案到底说了什么，又为什么引发了巨大的争 议呢？我们来看法案的具体内容。 首先，"大而美"法案永久性地延长了特朗普在2017年第一个任期内通过的企业和个人减税措 施，进一步削减了企业和富人的税负，但却使底层民众的处境恶化。 具体来看，法案规定将美国 ...