证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 03 日 [Table_Title] "乱纪元"之轮动思维 [Table_Title2] 类权益月报 [Table_Summary] ►行情回顾：关税新版本，政策新叙事 5 月，外部压力边际减缓，政策带来新叙事。5 月初，市场积 极交易中美贸易关系缓和预期。5 月 12 日，中美宣布互降关 税，市场则转而交易利好落地。政策方面，5 月 7 日，《推动公 募基金高质量发展行动方案》发布，"基金调仓"叙事受到关 注。5 月底，小微盘拥挤度推升至历史高位，行情震荡回调。 ► 海外预期：长期有底，但短期不确定性高悬 当前，市场对于海外的预期是长期有底，但短期不确定性仍 存。从第一轮谈判来看，中美在贸易方面共识多于分歧，但 短期特朗普关税政策存在较大的不确定性，法院最终是否会 判定特朗普依据IEEPA征收的关税无效，以及特朗普是否会采 取其他法律依据来征收关税仍未可知，后续可以重点关注后 续美国与欧洲和日本的谈判中，对于贸易顺差的处理。 ►权益板块轮动仍将延续，等待指数低波状态变化 海外预期的复杂组合下，市场或逐步进入脱敏状态，交易或 将更偏 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a range-bound fluctuation near the 20-day moving average, with a decline in average daily trading volume to 1.14 trillion yuan [1] - Market performance was characterized by a hierarchy: consumption > growth > finance > cyclical [1] - Economic indicators such as the May PMI showed signs of recovery, but the overall economic situation remains weak due to trade friction uncertainties [1] Group 2 - Short-term risk appetite is limited, but declining interest rates favor safe-haven assets like gold and new consumption sectors with inherent growth support [2] - The long-term trade landscape has been disrupted by tariff impacts, benefiting safe-haven assets despite short-term fluctuations in gold prices [2] - The technology growth sector, particularly in AI, robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries, may see renewed performance as earnings reports are released [2]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a rapid rotation of sectors, with a volatile pattern persisting and trading volume not showing significant increase, indicating a focus on existing stocks [1] - Short-term market conditions are expected to remain volatile, with attention on external tariff changes and the pace of domestic policy implementation [1] - A series of major financial policies are anticipated to be announced during the Lujiazui Forum from June 18 to 19, which may support market expectations and highlight structural opportunities [1] Group 2 - The market is likely to exhibit index fluctuations in June, with large-cap and quality indices expected to outperform [2] - The current economic fundamentals are relatively stable, with no significant decline in exports due to external changes, and domestic demand policies are still building momentum [2] - The financing demand from enterprises remains weak, and capital expenditure continues to trend downward, suggesting that strategies based on cash flow and ROE may gain traction [2]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20250529 ❖ 市场概况：今日转债增量上涨，估值环比抬升 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.58%、上证综指环比上涨 0.70%、深证成 指环比上涨 1.24%、创业板指环比上涨 1.37%、上证 50 指数环比上涨 0.29%、 中证 1000 指数环比上涨 1.76%。 市场风格：小盘成长相对占优。大盘成长环比上涨 0.62%、大盘价值环比下降 0.03%、中盘成长环比上涨 1.48%、中盘价值环比上涨 0.62%、小盘成长环比 上涨 1.53%、小盘价值环比上涨 0.84%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪升温。可转债市场成交额为 571.54 亿元，环比 增长 12.24%；万得全 A 总成交额为 12134.10 亿元，环比增长 17.37%；沪深 两市主力净流入 74.33 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 0.45bp 至 1.69%。 转债价格：转债中枢提升，高价券占比提升。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 118.69 元，环比昨日上升 0.59%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 162.71 元，环比 上升 0.07%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 11 ...

（原标题：和讯投顾程佳：先不着急，等节后） 昨天已经提到，尽管指数的重心可能会有所下移，但整体结构并未改变，市场仍将维持震荡行情。因 此，端午节之前市场不太可能出现特别大的变化，真正的布局机会可能在6月份才会逐渐显现。 综合来看，市场大概率将继续维持震荡格局。因此，投资者在操作上无需过于急切，可以等待市场风格 逐渐明朗后再进行布局。当前市场正处于高低位切换的阶段，建议投资者保持耐心，等待市场给出更明 确的信号。 关于后续的操作策略，建议投资者关注端午节之后的市场机会。如果指数进一步下跌，可以考虑大胆布 局；如果指数没有明显下跌，则需要等待市场风险偏好和风格明确后再进行操作。从短期来看，端午节 之前指数可能不会有太大波动，预计节前会收在3340点上方。 从指数的下方空间来看，此前已经提到，指数的最低点可能会达到3330点。如果情况理想，甚至希望指 数再下跌5个点，这样5日线形成的圆弧形态会更加完美。不过，目前指数虽然没有进一步下跌，但向上 突破的压力依然较大。在这种情况下，指数最多只能做到止跌，但无法保证会出现大规模的反弹。 目前市场的主要特点是风格轮动较快。从权重板块来看，银行板块表现偏弱，而消费板块的轮动速 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of strategic planning in both warfare and investment, highlighting that a well-thought-out strategy is crucial for success in volatile markets [1] - It introduces six common ETF investment strategies, aiming to help investors find suitable approaches for their investment goals [1] Long-term Strategies - **Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)**: This strategy involves investing a fixed amount at regular intervals, which helps to lower the average cost per share over time, especially during market downturns [1][3] - **Grid Trading Strategy**: This method utilizes market price fluctuations by setting predefined buy and sell price points, allowing investors to buy low and sell high [4][6] - **Pyramid Strategy**: This involves adjusting investment amounts based on price movements, buying more when prices are low and less when prices are high, requiring accurate market judgment [10][11] Short-term Strategies - **Core-Satellite Strategy**: This approach divides investments into a core position, typically in broad market ETFs, and satellite positions in sector-specific ETFs to capture excess returns [11] - **Swing Trading Strategy**: This strategy focuses on capitalizing on short-term market fluctuations, suitable for experienced investors who can quickly adapt to market changes [12] - **Sector Rotation Strategy**: This involves switching investments between different sectors based on market signals, aiming to maximize returns while minimizing systemic risks [13] Conclusion - The article concludes that there are various ETF investment strategies, and no single strategy is superior. Investors should analyze their goals, risk tolerance, and market conditions to develop a flexible investment approach [13]

周一周二都是万亿地量震荡，眼看着端午节前就剩3个交易日，变盘窗口期怎么办？给大家推荐一个组合策略：红利打底+指数增强轮动。 因为现在抱团高股息和小盘股的趋势很明显，这个策略用红利资产提供安全垫、平滑波动并贡献稳定现金流；用指数增强产品捕捉成长红利、提升组合收益 上限——既符合资金动向又贴合政策导向，我愿称之为和当前市场最适配的组合，没有之一。 了解指增的朋友都知道，当市场波动越大时，指增产品可以获取的超额就越多，这一点在市场行情轮动较快时更甚。 今年市场整体偏向小盘风格，因此，跟踪中证2000指数的增强ETF表现较好，比如$中证2000增强ETF(SZ159552)$。从2025年开年至今，中证2000增强 ETF （159552）年内涨幅高达20%，相对9%的中证2000指数超额收益高达11%。 能有这么强的表现，一是今年小盘股表现较为活跃，中证2000所涵盖的中小盘股票具有较高的成长性和波动性，为指增策略提供了更多获取超额收益的机 会。 二是市场对小盘股关注度不断提高，增量资金不断流入中证2000的成份股，推动了股价上涨，给指增产品增加了很多做多空间。三是从量化模型来看，反 转、红利、成长因子今年表现好， ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market opened slightly higher on May 28, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.63% [1] - The logistics vehicle concept was notably active, driving the surge in unmanned sanitation vehicles, with several companies reaching their daily limit up [1] Group 2: Key Sectors and Stocks - The unmanned logistics vehicle sector saw significant activity, with companies like Cloud Inner Power, Tongda Electric, and others hitting their daily limit up, while stocks like Dadi Electric and Yuhua Tian rose over 10% [1] - Notable financing activities in the autonomous driving sector include White Rhino receiving 200 million yuan from SF Express for deploying 2,000 unmanned vehicles in 50 cities, and Jiusi Intelligent raising over 430 million USD, expecting to deliver over 3,000 units next year [1] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Securities, the market style may rotate between defensive and growth sectors, with a focus on stable or high-dividend industries under defensive style and thematic growth under growth style [3] - Dongfang Securities suggests that the market will primarily experience oscillatory adjustments in the short term, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to consolidate between 3,300 and 3,400 points [4]

朋友圈里各种房价暴跌、楼市崩盘的标题看得人心惊肉跳。 那真实情况究竟如何呢？对A股又有什么影响呢？ 最近总有人说房价要崩，但真相往往没那么简单。楼市现在确实在调整，但调整和崩盘是两码事。 新房价格还没见底，现在二手房比新房便宜25%-40%，还在跌！4月一线城市环比跌0.2%，二三线跌0.4%。二手房崩成这样，新房降价空间 还大着呢！ 先别急着划走，文章最后有硬核数据，错过可就亏大了！ 一、楼市的两大真相：跌≠崩 但房价不会永远跌，参考日本：90年代泡沫破灭后萎靡了20年，但现在东京房价创了新高。中国楼市2015-2017年涨太猛，现在只是还债。 还完了呢？机会就来了。 二、散户的致命误区：光看K线必被割 很多人觉得：楼市不行了，钱会流进股市！这话对了一半。钱确实会流动，但问题是——流到哪儿？散户如果只会盯着K线猜涨跌，大概率 会被机构当韭菜割。 看这票！去年爆涨130%，但大涨前股价跟坐过山车似的，振幅超44%，多少人被震下车，眼睁睁错过大肉！ 为什么散户总被洗盘？因为机构玩的是心理战：先砸盘吓你交出筹码；等你跑了，他们悄悄接货；最后轻松拉高，让你追悔莫及。 三、关键：用数据扒开机构底牌 想不被套路？就得看 ...

（原标题：和讯投顾李炜：缩量无序轮动！继续等待新周期） 今天是5月27日周二，盘后来看，市场再次收出了一根缩量十字星。与昨日相比，成交量进一步萎缩， K线的最低点仍在不断下移。从市场环境来看，今天的活跃度比昨天更低。从数据角度分析，昨天题材 股修复时，上涨的个股数量大约有3500家，而今天仅有2600多家上涨。这表明市场在成交量进一步低迷 之后，整体走势也越来越弱。 在这种缩量且无序轮动的市场环境中，投资者应保持谨慎。当指数出现十字星时，市场往往处于等待新 周期开启的状态。然而，目前新周期尚未开启，因为市场仍存在抱团现象。每个概念中总有两三个个股 频繁异动，出现脉冲式上涨。只有当这些极致抱团的个股彻底调整之后，市场才有可能开启新的周期。 此外，最近有投资者询问是否可以进行T+0操作。从分时图来看，量化交易似乎做得不错，但对于个人 投资者而言，操作难度较大。我们在直播间也分析过分时盘口，以最近的低点画一条水平线平移过来。 今天下午市场虽有冲高，但成交量并未跟上，仅是一个弱势修复。从高点连线来看，虽然题材股如果进 一步修复可能有空间，但别忘了区间减半的结构。昨天分时盘口上的两个高点连线后，向上运行的空间 其实并不 ...