市场主流观点汇总 2025/7/1 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 期货从业资格证号：F3036000 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0016090 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/6/27 | | 2025/6/23 | 至 2025/6/27 | | | 焦炭 | 1421.50 | 焦炭 | | 2.67% | | | 铜 | 79920.00 | 铜 | | 2.47% | | ...

作者 | 独行侠 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 疯狂的铜，似乎又卷土重来了。 截止 7月1日，COMEX铜最新报价超5.1美元，较4月初累计大涨近25%，离3月创 下的历史新高仅 一步之遥。 铜价持续上涨，同样引发 A股铜金属板块行情共振。北方铜业3日大涨逾20%，市值超5000亿的紫金 矿业累涨近5%，突破盘整一年之久的箱体震荡，再刷新高。 熟悉的趋势再次出行，接下来又会如何演变？ 01 LME两大核心仓同时持续去库，可用库存总量较年初已经大幅下降80%左右， 目前仅相当于全球一 天的用量。 在此大背景下，引发了 LME铜现期货升水快速拉升。据数据显示，本周一 现货铜价较三个月期货价 格高出了 280美元/吨，创下自2021年创纪录飙升以来的最大价差。这一巨幅现货溢价表明供应短 缺。 据报道，最近全球三大铜市场现货价格出现史诗级割裂。 目前， COMEX铜远高于LME铜1200美元，而LME铜现货价格又高于沪铜现货近2000元。 导致这一局面的原因是特朗普针对铜加征关税的预期悬而未决。具体来看， 2月26日， 特朗普签署 行政命令启动对进口铜产品的 "232调查"。而据23 ...

Group 1 - The first batch of 26 new floating rate funds has been launched, with over half already announced [1] - He Yuan Biological's IPO application has passed the review, marking the first successful IPO under the fifth set of standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1] - Multiple real estate companies are accelerating debt restructuring, with over 75% of holders supporting the offshore debt restructuring agreement from Country Garden [1] Group 2 - In June, China's heavy truck wholesale sales reached approximately 92,000 units, a year-on-year increase of about 29% [2] - The market for charging treasures in Huaqiangbei still includes products without 3C certification, despite increased scrutiny [2] - Guangzhou has launched its first "immediate refund" point for departure tax refunds, with a significant increase in tax refund applications and sales [3] Group 3 - Standard Chartered Bank faces a lawsuit related to the 1MDB scandal, with claims of failing to perform anti-money laundering checks on over $2.7 billion [3] - Perfect World has initiated an anti-corruption campaign, dismissing multiple individuals involved in bribery and misconduct [4] - Douyin e-commerce has clarified that there are no channels for obtaining sales permissions without followers, emphasizing adherence to established rules [4] Group 4 - Hebei Asset Management has submitted an IPO application, potentially becoming the first local asset management company to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4] - Tailong Pharmaceutical plans to register and issue up to 800 million yuan in short-term financing bonds [5] - Chang Aluminum's subsidiary has signed a contract worth 165 million yuan for a cleanroom construction project [6] Group 5 - Guomai Technology expects a net profit increase of 60.52% to 100.33% for the first half of 2025 [7] - Kidswant anticipates a net profit growth of 50% to 100% for the first half of 2025 [8] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.39%, with innovation drug stocks experiencing significant gains [9][10]

Group 1 - The overall score for DingTong Technology (688668) is 64.56, indicating a strong performance [1] - The main cost analysis shows the following prices: current main cost at 63.22 CNY, 5-day main cost at 61.72 CNY, 20-day main cost at 60.64 CNY, and 60-day main cost at 50.21 CNY [1] - In the past year, the stock has hit the upper limit once and the lower limit once [1] Group 2 - The short-term resistance level is at 62.46 CNY, while the short-term support level is at 60.54 CNY [2] - The stock price has broken through the short-term resistance level, indicating potential short-term strength [2] - The K-line pattern shows a "Red Three Soldiers" formation, suggesting a possible bottoming out and rebound [2] Group 3 - On July 1, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 10.54 million CNY, accounting for -4% of the total transaction amount [2] - Retail investors saw a net inflow of 2.1751 million CNY, while large orders experienced a net outflow of 9.8277 million CNY [2] - Related industries such as communication equipment and copper cable high-speed connections saw declines of -0.49% and -0.99%, respectively [2]

德商银行预计今年年底铜价将达9500美元/吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank forecasts that copper prices will reach $9,500 per ton by the end of this year [1] Group 1 - The forecast indicates a bullish outlook for copper prices in the near term [1]

持仓与成交： SHFE铜库存环比减少650吨至90625吨，连续两周去库。LME铜库存继续增加 505吨至25851吨。持仓方面，LME0-3铜合约持仓量环比增4590手至292214 手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端： 铜价高位震荡延续，供给需求角力未明 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差： 6月30日，沪铜主力合约收于79800元/吨，较前一日小幅下跌0.08%。LME铜 价则从9896美元/吨小幅下探至9879美元/吨，维持高位震荡格局。现货升 贴水方面，升水铜升水从135元/吨升至150元/吨，平水铜升水由85元/吨涨 至115元/吨，湿法铜升水攀升至55元/吨，现货市场流通货源紧俏，基差整 体走强。 海外矿山扰动缓和，国内冶炼端出现分化，江苏地区因出口计划导致现货 供应偏紧，而上海、广东仓单增加，冶炼厂开工率维持高位。 需求端： 精铜杆企业开工率持续下滑，6月20日-26日当周环比下降1.81个百分点至 74.01%，且7月初部分企业计划进一步减产降库。下游畏高情绪明显，华北 地区现货成交均价跌至79710元/吨，升水走高但成交清淡，终端采购意愿 受抑，仅贸易商活跃。 库 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Zhonghui Futures indicates that the short-term focus for copper prices should be within the range of 78,500 to 81,000 yuan, with a long-term bullish outlook due to ongoing global copper supply tightness and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - Changjiang Futures expects copper prices to operate in the range of 78,500 to 81,000 yuan in the short term, suggesting a cautious approach to holding long positions due to potential demand suppression from rising prices and ongoing tariff uncertainties [1][2] - Guantong Futures anticipates a slow upward trend in copper prices amidst a volatile market, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and uncertain tariff policies, while also considering the tight supply of copper and weak U.S. economic data [2] Group 2 - The recent performance of copper futures shows a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 80,760.00 yuan and closing at 80,640.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.09% increase [1] - The macroeconomic sentiment appears to be improving, with the U.S. copper premium over London copper expanding, although concerns about seasonal demand and tariff uncertainties may continue to exert pressure on prices [1][2] - The upcoming expiration of a 90-day tariff exemption on July 9 is expected to reignite tariff negotiations, adding to the uncertainty in the copper market [1]

[本报告联系人： Table_C ontacter] [Table_Title] 铜行业专题之一 [Table_Page] 行业专题研究|有色金属 2025 年 7 月 1 日 证券研究报告 全球铜矿产量增速已近拐点，重视铜价弹性 | 分析师： [Tabl | 宫帅 | 分析师： | 陈琪玮 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260518070003 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524040003 | | | SFC CE.no: BOB672 | | SFC CE.no: BTE650 | | | 010-59136660 | | 021-38003631 | | | gongshuai@gf.com.cn | | chenqiwei@gf.com.cn | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 25 铜矿：全球长期资本开支压制增量，老矿品位下滑、地缘风险上升使得存量难稳产。据彭博、公司财报，从全 球约 450 个铜矿项目的统计看，我们预计乐观情况下，2025、2026、2 ...

数据来源：Wind、SMM、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免费声明 免费声明 期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】 2025年7月1日 星期二 Z0015979 价格及基差 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 79990 | 80125 | -135.00 | -0.17% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 130 | 110 | +20.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 79940 | 80070 | -130.00 | -0.16% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 65 | તેર | -30.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 79915 | 80045 | -130.00 | -0.16% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | રક | 30 | +25.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 2131 | 1965 | +166.39 | 8.47% | 元 ...