从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：煤产量小幅下滑 盘面震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 此外，内蒙古乌海地区环保检查力度不减，叠加当前市场态势依旧偏 弱，周边露天煤矿均自发性停产，据 Mysteel 不完全统计，目前在产露天 煤矿产能 960 万吨，约占乌海及棋盘井露天煤矿总产能 34%。 观点：近期煤矿减产叠加进口缩量，一定程度上缓解供应过剩压力， 上游煤矿累库速度放缓，短期煤焦或延续震荡走势。 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、进口煤通关情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司 ...

2025 年 06 月 26 日 尿素：消息面带动投机性，短期震荡运行 | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | --- | 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,740 | 1,698 | 4 2 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,721 | 1,698 | 2 3 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 551,401 | 439,543 | 111858 | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 255,236 | 247,071 | 8165 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,898,223 | 1,493,084 | 405139 | | | 基 差 | | 山东地区基差 | 2 0 | 5 2 | -32 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -120 | -78 | -4 ...

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Core Viewpoint - UBS warns that the recent rally in the U.S. stock market has gone too far, suggesting investors consider reducing their positions as true risk appetite continues to decline despite surface strength [1][8]. Group 1: Market Indicators - UBS's proprietary "4M Midday Recovery Score," which measures investor risk appetite, has been declining since April, dropping to 9% by June 19, indicating a shift to a neutral stance [2][5]. - The UBS Short Squeeze Index (UBXXSHRT) has seen a significant increase of 43%, but historically, similar conditions have led to average declines of 11% in the S&P 500 and 13% in the Nasdaq over three months [1][6]. Group 2: Fund Flow Dynamics - There has been a consistent outflow of active funds, with retail investors showing net selling on 4 out of the last 5 trading days, and foreign investors also exhibiting net selling through U.S. listed ETFs [8][10]. - UBS anticipates a significant sell-off of up to $56 billion in global equities due to pension and target-date fund rebalancing, with $31 billion targeting international stocks and $25 billion for U.S. stocks [10]. Group 3: Corporate Buybacks and Risks - Corporate stock buybacks are expected to weaken significantly, with projections of a drop to $30 billion next week and further down to $15-20 billion before early August due to companies entering blackout periods [10]. - The report highlights a concerning lack of hedging among major tech stocks, with short positions at a one-year low and put/call ratios at a five-year low, indicating increased risk exposure [12][16].

Group 1 - The market sentiment has improved significantly due to a phase ceasefire agreement reached between conflicting parties, which is expected to be implemented in stages [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate rebounded, the Israeli stock market reached a new high, and US stocks continued to perform strongly, indicating a recovery in overall risk appetite [1] - US inflation data for May showed both CPI and PPI below expectations, with core PPI growth at a one-year low, easing inflationary pressures and increasing market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a significant decline, breaking below the key level of 3350, and further dropping to 3295, indicating a bearish trend [4] - The current price of gold is around 3332, with a focus on the support zone between 3318-3313; if this support holds, there may be a potential rally towards the 3400 mark [4] - The suggested trading strategy for gold includes buying on dips between 3317-3311, with a stop loss at 3304 and a target range of 3340-3360 [5]

美联储主席鲍威尔：合理预计关税将带来一定程度的通胀压力。 ...

Group 1 - The rising costs of education in major cities are becoming a significant burden for families, with high prices for school district housing and additional expenses for tutoring and extracurricular activities [1][3] - The aging population in China is leading to increased challenges related to elder care, with difficulties in finding affordable and suitable nursing homes, adding to the stress of families who must balance work and caregiving responsibilities [3][5] - High medical expenses are a growing concern, with ordinary hospital visits costing hundreds of yuan, and serious illnesses leading to financial strain that can deplete savings or incur debt [5][7] Group 2 - Many families are financially stretched due to high mortgage payments, leaving little disposable income for emergencies, which significantly reduces their ability to withstand financial risks [5][7] - The current economic environment is challenging, particularly for the service industry, as consumers are more cautious with spending, impacting revenue generation [7] - The shift of many businesses to online platforms has intensified competition, making it harder for companies to generate profits despite potential cost savings [7]

鲍威尔：预计2025年稍晚将围绕压力测试取得进展。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：预计今年晚些时候将取得压力测试方面的进展。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Powell, will not consider federal debt issues in its monetary policy decisions, indicating a separation between fiscal and monetary policy considerations [1] Group 1 - Fiscal policy can exacerbate inflationary pressures, but the Federal Reserve will not publicly address this risk [1]