市场风险

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股票买太少?多只基金,密集提示存续风险!
券商中国· 2025-05-10 09:05
增加仓位的股性已经是许多基金产品留住基金持有人的关键策略。 近日,多只"重债轻股"的基金产品密集披露基金合同终止风险,这背后反映了基金持有人对市场的期待,与基 金产品重仓对象发生矛盾的现象。目前,基金持有人对市场走势的预期越来越多地指向权益类资产的反弹,一 些仓位配置严重偏离市场风格的基金产品面临较大的赎回压力。 多位基金公司人士判断,风险偏好已逐步回归,投资中国股市的机会成本快速下降,从而促使增量资金积极入 市。 股票买太少,密集提示产品存续风险 压缩股票仓位的基金产品,在当前市场中可能不太讨巧基金持有人。 5月10日,德邦基金发布公告称,旗下德邦新回报灵活基金根据《基金合同》的规定,《基金合同》生效后, 连续60个工作日出现基金份额持有人数量不满200人或者基金资产净值低于5000万元情形的,基金将按照基金 合同的约定终止并进入清算程序,无需召开基金份额持有人大会。截至5月8日,基金已连续50个工作日的基金 资产净值低于5000万元。 显而易见的是,在重仓基操作策略上,上述FOF以62%的压倒性优势配置到债券型基金产品上,而给予偏股型 基金产品不足6%的仓位,或成为该基金提示基金规模缩水的核心触发因素,即 ...
【环球财经】市场风险偏好改善 美元指数9日下跌
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-10 00:50
Group 1 - The US dollar index fell by 0.3% to close at 100.338, indicating a decline against a basket of currencies, except for the Canadian dollar [1] - Analysts suggest that the worst phase of the trade and tariff war may be over, as the Trump administration appears to be reaching out to different countries [1] - The Canadian unemployment rate increased from 6.7% in March to 6.9% in April, which was higher than the market expectation of 6.8%, contributing to the decline of the Canadian dollar [1] Group 2 - The euro appreciated to 1.1259 USD from the previous day's 1.1225 USD, while the British pound rose to 1.3315 USD from 1.3251 USD [2] - The US dollar exchanged at 145.27 JPY, down from 145.88 JPY, and at 0.8311 CHF, slightly down from 0.8312 CHF [2] - The US dollar strengthened against the Canadian dollar, trading at 1.3930 CAD, up from 1.3928 CAD [2]
张瑜:美国经济的上行or下行风险有哪些?——美国一季度GDP点评
一瑜中的· 2025-05-09 13:17
文 : 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜(执业证号:S0360518090001) 联系人:殷雯卿(19945767933) 核心观点 美国经济中的内需部分未来的下行和上行压力都在哪里?下行压力主要在于①关税对需求侧的整体冲 击,甚至会损害全球经济;②财富效应损耗 + 可消费现金流走弱对消费的冲击;③潜在金融市场对基 本面的"传染"。上行压力主要在私人投资①美联储降息周期中地产有望企稳;②科技巨头资本开支仍 在提升。二者叠加来看,经济增长存在持续偏弱的压力,经济是否陷入"危机性衰退"需要进一步跟踪 关税落地情况与美联储货币政策走向。 报告摘要 1、关税是经济下行最大的不确定性源头 美国进口需求对全球贸易增速至关重要,关税对美国内需的冲击或是当前全球经济最大的β风险。 一 方面,美国在国际贸易中的占比较高:美国占全球进口(剔除欧盟内部)的16%(2023年数据),美 国进口最终消费品占全球最终消费品进口总额的约1/3,美国贸易逆差占全球贸易逆差总额的5-6成。 另一方面,美国进口与全球进口正相关→进而影响中国出口。如果关税对美国进口形成较大冲击,或 将传导至全球贸易需求的收缩。 考虑到过去 30 年 ...
上期所:近期国际形势复杂多变,黄金品种价格波动较大,请各有关单位采取相应措施,提示投资者做好风险防范工作,理性投资,共同维护市场平稳运行。
news flash· 2025-05-09 11:18
上期所:近期国际形势复杂多变,黄金品种价格波动较大,请各有关单位采取相应措施,提示投资者做 好风险防范工作,理性投资,共同维护市场平稳运行。 ...
胜通能源(001331) - 001331胜通能源投资者关系管理信息20250509
2025-05-09 09:44
证券代码:001331 证券简称:胜通能源 胜通能源股份有限公司 2025年5月9日投资者关系活动记录表 编号:2025-001 公司密切跟踪国际市场和国内市场的动态,通过窗口 期协议,在现货资源具备价格优势时,采购现货资源平抑 资源采购单价,同时利用新加坡子公司对窗口期长协资源 价格进行套期保值,降低价格敞口风险;此外,公司利用 租赁 LNG 储气库实现液价的错峰调配等措施积极应对因 执行"进口 LNG 窗口一站通"5 年期长期协议给公司带来 的业绩波动风险。 2025 年是 5 年期长期协议的最后一年,公司将继续 采取上述措施严格控制价格风险;未来,公司将在深耕国 内 LNG 市场的基础上,继续积极对接上游国内和海外资 源,通过采购渠道的多元化降低采购成本,通过开展套期 保值业务进行价格风险管控,以此提升公司的盈利性和风 险防范能力。 | | 型新赛道,围绕企业健康可持续发展,按照多元化、一体 | | --- | --- | | | 化、智慧化和国际化发展思路,持续提升公司盈利能力和 | | | 抗风险能力。 | | 关于本次活动是否涉 | | | 及应披露重大信息的 否 | | | 说明 | | | 活 ...
金晟富:5.9黄金探底回升节奏有变!晚间黄金走势如何交易
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 07:28
换资前言: 一篇文章的指引或许有限,但长期精准的分析才是稳步提升收益的关键。或许你见过无数分析与盈利案 例,却仍受亏损困扰——这往往是因过度综合复杂策略所致,而市场本质是"少数者盈利"的博弈。与其 分散参考,不如专注跟随专业思路:建立"入场、出场、风控"三位一体的交易体系,方能实现稳定盈 利。积少成多并非难事,关键在于科学规划与严格执行。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势?后市黄金多空该如何研判? 周五(5月9日)亚市尾盘,美元指数位于100.65附近;现货黄金在昨日暴跌后有所反弹,目前金价位于 3313美元/盎司附近。美元指数周四上涨,在美国与英国达成双边贸易协议后,市场情绪受到安抚,美 元兑避险货币日元与瑞郎走强。追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)周四收盘攀升0.73%,至 100.64,美国总统特朗普周四宣布与英国达成一项"突破性"贸易协议,该协议保留对包括汽车在内的英 国进口商品征收10%的基准关税。因英美贸易协议提升市场风险偏好,加之美元和美债收益率大幅攀 升,现货黄金周四收盘暴跌58.25美元,跌幅1.73%,报3305.89美元/盎司。周五,投资者将迎来大量美 联储官员讲话,其中美联储" ...
风险资产回暖助推行情 比特币重返10万美元大关
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 22:34
周四,比特币重回10万美元以上,为自今年2月以来首次突破这一心理关口。分析师表示,这反映出投资者对风 险资产的整体需求正在回升,与此同时,美股也持续从4月低点反弹,市场风险偏好明显增强。 加密货币交易所Kraken的全球经济学家Thomas Perfumo指出:"比特币重新站上六位数大关,正值全球市场风险 情绪复苏之际。股票市场表现强劲,投资者对于配置风险资产的意愿正在增强,而这种复苏的'动物精神'也迅 速蔓延到了加密货币领域。" 今年1月20日,即美国总统特朗普宣誓就职当天,比特币创下历史新高,达到109,225美元。当时,市场普遍预 期新政府将为加密资产带来更宽松的监管环境。然而,随后由于特朗普政府推动的关税政策引发风险市场震 荡,比特币一度在4月初跌破8万美元。 本周四,在特朗普宣布其政府已与英国达成初步贸易协议后,美股与比特币双双上涨。Interactive Brokers高级 经济学家JoséTorres表示:"投资者终于看到了'特朗普贸易隧道'尽头的光明,现在开始将注意力转向特朗普政策 组合中的增长预期。" 比特币周四上涨5%,最高触及101,515美元,下午交投于约101,094美元。与此同时, ...
美国一季度GDP点评:美国经济的上行or下行风险有哪些?
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-08 13:49
Group 1: Economic Downside Risks - The U.S. GDP for Q1 2025 showed an unexpected decline with a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of -0.3%, against an expectation of -0.2% and a previous value of +2.4%[2] - Tariffs are identified as the largest source of uncertainty for economic downturn, with the U.S. accounting for 16% of global imports and 1/3 of global final consumption goods imports[3] - If U.S. import growth declines by more than 5% this year, it could significantly pressure the global economy, as historical data shows only three instances in the past 30 years where import growth fell below -5% during recession periods[4] Group 2: Consumer Spending Risks - The wealth effect in the U.S. is highly sensitive to stock market performance; a 10.4% drop in the Nasdaq in Q1 2025 could lead to a reduction in excess wealth by 27%-61%[5] - If the Nasdaq continues to decline or remains flat, consumer resilience may be severely impacted, with expectations for future stock and housing prices weakening[6] - In 2025, the growth rate of residents' salary income is expected to weaken to approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in 2024, indicating a challenging income environment for consumers[6] Group 3: Financial Market Risks - The U.S. financial market faces multiple risks, including tight liquidity in the money market and high leverage ratios, which could amplify market volatility and impact economic growth[8] - The potential for further financial market fluctuations exists, particularly in the context of significant political uncertainties such as tariffs[8] Group 4: Potential Upside Risks - Private investment may present a potential upside risk, as real estate investment is expected to stabilize within 1-2 years following the Fed's interest rate cuts[9] - Capital expenditures from major U.S. tech companies are projected to increase, with a 19% upward revision for 2025 compared to earlier forecasts, indicating continued investment in the AI sector[9]
华创证券:“一行一局一会”打出组合拳 将带来市场风险偏好的加强
news flash· 2025-05-07 09:10
金十数据5月7日讯,华创证券首席分析师姚佩表示,本次会议内容可分为两大部分:一是支持实体经 济,二是支持资本市场。针对实体经济的支持包括总量和结构两方面。总量方面,降准降息落地。结构 方面,中国央行在资金投向方面拥有更大的灵活性和指引性,当前更多倾向于科技创新和扩内需。针对 资本市场的支持主要体现在对"平准基金"和中长线资金入市的进一步坚定。姚佩认为,"一行一局一 会"打出组合拳,后续各部委或密集召开新闻发布会,可能形成"一揽子"政策的加速落地。对股市来 说,短期风险偏好的稳定比基本面修复更重要,此刻不必悲观,量比价更重要。过去10个交易日A股日 均成交额1.1万亿元,未来一到两周市场若持续放量,将构建更扎实的底部,带来风险偏好的加强和向 上反弹的信心。 华创证券:"一行一局一会"打出组合拳 将带来市场风险偏好的加强 ...
用好期货“工具箱” 从容应对外部干扰
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-05-06 16:29
Group 1: Market Risks and Responses - The Trump administration's policies since 2025 have led to increased volatility in domestic and international financial markets, particularly following the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April, which raised recession fears for the US economy [1] - Although the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" policy was postponed for 90 days, the underlying risks remain, prompting the need for domestic enterprises to adopt strategies to manage these risks effectively [1] Group 2: Derivative Tools and Strategic Management - China has established a comprehensive commodity industry chain, and the application of futures tools has evolved from basic risk hedging to more integrated risk management strategies [2] - By the end of 2024, 1,408 listed companies in China had announced hedging strategies, indicating a growing trend in utilizing futures for risk management [2] Group 3: Price Discovery and Market Analysis - China's futures market includes 71 listed commodity futures and 146 total futures and options, with over 2.5 million investors and a margin scale of 1.6 trillion yuan, providing valuable price signals for enterprises [3] - The characteristics of the price signals in the futures market—broad, long, precise, and deep—enable companies to enhance their market analysis and strategic planning [3] Group 4: Risk Management Tools - The futures market offers various risk hedging tools, including on-exchange futures, options, and over-the-counter swaps, allowing for personalized and refined risk management services for enterprises [4] - Companies in oversupplied sectors can utilize options strategies to improve sales prices while managing the risks associated with price increases [4] Group 5: Transitioning to Certainty in Operations - Enterprises can shift from a reliance on spot markets to a diversified approach that includes futures, options, and basis management, enhancing stability in their operations [6] - This transition allows for a multi-faceted management approach, incorporating exposure management, basis management, volatility management, and scale management [6] Group 6: Enhanced Risk Management Practices - The recent volatility in commodity prices has heightened the need for improved risk management capabilities within companies, necessitating a structured approach to managing both predictable and unpredictable risks [7] - Companies should develop or refine their risk management processes to better handle market uncertainties [7] Group 7: Collaborative Ecosystem Development - China's futures market has developed a mature service ecosystem, and enterprises are encouraged to collaborate with various institutions to create a synergistic business model that integrates price, tools, funds, information, and goods [8] - Futures companies are focusing on enhancing their service capabilities, emphasizing professional and detail-oriented intermediary services to improve client engagement [8] Group 8: Customized Risk Management Solutions - Futures companies are tasked with providing tailored risk management solutions that align with the unique needs of enterprises, utilizing a combination of futures, options, and swaps to optimize risk management strategies [9] - The integration of financial technology, such as AI and big data, is being leveraged to offer real-time risk monitoring and dynamic strategy adjustments for enterprises [9] Group 9: Trading Service Innovations - The competitive landscape of futures brokerage has led companies to seek new growth avenues, utilizing their research and risk management strengths to enhance client wealth and participate in risk-managed procurement and sales [10] - This approach allows futures companies to better serve the operational needs of enterprises while also creating new revenue streams [10]