Core Insights - A "down-to-earth" advertisement unexpectedly gained popularity, highlighting a rural girl's success in opening seven hotpot restaurants, reflecting significant changes in the business landscape [2][3] Group 1: Impact of Short Video and Digital Tools - The rise of short video platforms has enabled small businesses to break physical space limitations, allowing them to reach a national audience through engaging content [3][9] - The report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences indicates that digital technology is helping small merchants find new growth opportunities by combining offline personal connections with online reach [3][9] Group 2: Success Stories of Small Businesses - Guo Luncai, a rural girl from Sichuan, leveraged her personal story and real-time updates on her hotpot restaurant's journey to attract a large following, resulting in significant sales and rapid expansion [4][6] - Xiaoling, a live-streaming host, transformed a modest flower shop into a successful chain by showcasing local culture and engaging with customers through live broadcasts [6][8] Group 3: Structural Challenges and Solutions - The service industry faces a "cost disease" where rising costs cannot be offset by efficiency gains, particularly for small and micro enterprises [9][10] - Digital tools like live streaming are providing new solutions to this long-standing issue by allowing businesses to reach a larger audience without the constraints of physical location [9][10] Group 4: Transformation of Business Models - The shift from traditional business models to a digital-first approach is evident, with businesses now focusing on online validation before rapid expansion [15][20] - The integration of online and offline experiences is creating a seamless customer journey, enhancing the visibility and profitability of small shops [15][20] Group 5: Emotional Connection and Customer Engagement - Short videos are fostering emotional connections between businesses and consumers, transforming service consumption from mere functionality to identity and cultural recognition [17][19] - The transparency of operations through live streaming builds trust and encourages customer engagement, turning consumers into brand advocates [19][20] Group 6: Economic Trends and Future Outlook - The service sector's consumption share is projected to rise to 52% by 2030, with a growth rate of 9.2%, indicating a significant shift in consumer behavior [20][21] - The digital transformation of small businesses is not only vital for their survival but also plays a crucial role in the broader economic transition [20][21]

PX成本支撑偏弱，关注TA高加工费供应压力增大可能 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 06月30日，PX 主力合约收6796.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.65%，基差为 40.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4798.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.42%，基差 为222.0元/吨。 成本端，06月30日，布油主力合约收盘66.34美元/桶。WTI收65.07美元/ 桶。需求端，06月30日，轻纺城成交总量为663.0万米，15 日平均成交为 620.33万米。 PX：成本端受国际原油价格维持窄幅震荡趋势，能提供的支撑相对有限。 亚洲地区新增装置投产预期可能带来供应压力，叠加下游PTA加工费修复空 间有限或抑制原料采购积极性，预计PX价格将维持震荡格局。 PTA：PTA下游聚酯开工率高位，终端纺织成交回暖，需求端有所反弹。基 差走强反映现货偏紧，PX成本支撑边际减弱，PTA加工费高位下开工负荷或 继续维持，关注供应端恢复压力 ...

Core Insights - The Civil Aviation Administration of China reported a total profit of 1.2 billion yuan for the aviation industry in 2024, marking a significant improvement of 20.61 billion yuan year-on-year, representing the first overall "loss reduction and profit increase" since the pandemic [1] - Private airlines demonstrated significantly better profitability compared to state-owned carriers, with Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China United Airlines achieving net profits of 2.273 billion yuan, 914 million yuan, and 268 million yuan respectively [1] - State-owned airlines, including China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China, continued to face losses for the fifth consecutive year, with an average loss reduction from 5 billion USD in 2022 to 286 million USD in 2024 [2] Industry Structure - The profitability of private airlines is attributed to their low-cost operating models, with Spring Airlines exemplifying this approach by maintaining a focus on core metrics such as flight utilization, passenger load factor, and cost control [3] - Private airlines have shown greater flexibility in route selection, prioritizing market demand and profitability, which has allowed them to fill market gaps that state-owned airlines have overlooked [3] - The operational efficiency and decision-making agility of private airlines have enabled them to recover more quickly from the pandemic compared to state-owned counterparts [4] Future Outlook - The aviation market in China is expected to undergo a reshuffling in the coming years as it emerges from the pandemic, with private airlines likely to continue focusing on differentiated and segmented market strategies [4] - State-owned airlines may need to implement deep structural reforms in their organizational, financial, and operational mechanisms to escape the cycle of losses, potentially exploring mixed-ownership trials for non-core routes and subsidiaries [4]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's partner Lu Weibing responded to the pricing of the Youth Apartment at 1999 yuan, stating that the decision was made after extensive discussions. The apartment aims to provide a low-cost, high-quality living experience for recent graduates [1] Group 1 - The Xiaomi Youth Apartment has been established in Beijing, offering over 2600 apartments [1] - The main unit type is a 29 square meter studio, equipped with smart living devices and shared facilities such as kitchens, gyms, and media rooms [1] - The project is designed to create a green ecological environment for its residents [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-07-01 成本⽀撑转弱，⿊⾊⾼开低⾛ 昨⽇⿊⾊盘⾯⾛弱，其中双焦受煤矿复产消息影响，尾盘跌幅较⼤。 从钢材周度表需看，螺纹表现好于预期，板材则有所分化，五⼤材整 体累库。结合板材和其他⼩品种现货情况看，确实有淡季转弱态势。 后续主要看出⼝能否保持顺畅以及钢材累库斜率，市场⼼态较为谨 慎，盘⾯再度恢复震荡运⾏态势。 ⿊⾊：成本⽀撑转弱，⿊⾊⾼开低⾛ 昨日黑色盘面走弱，其中双焦受煤矿复产消息影响，尾盘跌幅较大。 从钢材周度表需看，螺纹表现好于预期，板材则有所分化，五大材整 体累库。结合板材和其他小品种现货情况看，确实有淡季转弱态势。 后续主要看出口能否保持顺畅以及钢材累库斜率，市场心态较为谨 慎，盘面再度恢复震荡运行态势。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山冲量不及预期，发运量环比下降；需求端 钢企铁水日产微幅增加，预计短期铁水产量可以维持高位。到港下 降，需求高位，港口小幅去库。前期海外矿山冲发运将在几周内到 港，矿石有阶段性小幅累库预期，但预计幅度有限，整体供需矛盾不 突出。近期重点关注需求端钢企盈利状况和检修计划。 2、碳元素 ...

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 7 月 1 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

文字早评 2025/07/01 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.59%，创指+1.35%，科创 50+1.54%，北证 50+0.52%，上证 50+0.16%，沪深 300+0.37%， 中证 500+0.88%，中证 1000+1.26%，中证 2000+1.54%，万得微盘+1.67%。两市合计成交 15176 亿，较上 一日-581 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、在岸人民币兑美元收盘报 7.1656，较上一交易日上涨 34 点，创 2024 年 11 月 8 日以来新高。在岸人 民币兑美元 6 月升值 0.41%，二季度累计升值 1.2%，上半年累升 1.86%。 2、《深圳证券交易所股票发行上市审核业务指引第 8 号——轻资产、高研发投入认定标准》发布。 3、中国 6 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49.7，预期 49.7，前值 49.5；非制造业 PMI 为 50.5，预期 50.5，前值 50.3；综合 PMI 为 50.7，前值 50.4。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.75%/-1.09%/-1.28%/-2.04%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.89%/- ...

专题报告 2025-07-01 从"火法"到"湿法"，如何看待镍价成本支撑？ 吴坤金 报告要点： 近期镍价持续下跌，逐步逼近今年前期低点。在此背景下，镍价底部支撑水平成为当前市场关 注的焦点。本篇报告梳理了不同工艺对应的镍价成本支撑位置，为读者理解当前镍价下跌的主 要驱动因素以及未来走势提供参考。 刘显杰（联系人） 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 图 1：印尼内贸火法镍矿价格 图 2：精炼镍相对镍铁溢价（元/镍） 数据来源：SMM、五矿期货研究中心 数据来源：Mysteel、五矿期货研究中心 湿法工艺成本有所抬升，但仍处于较低水平 HPAL 湿法工艺是红土镍矿主要处理方式之一，由于原料可以使用低品位镍矿，成本优势明显。 2024 年以来，随着华友钴业、力勤资源和格林美等中资企业的湿法项目在印尼大规模投产，印 尼 MHP 产量快速增加，目前单月产量最高达到 4.05 万吨镍金属。 中长期来看，由于湿法矿资源充 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities indicates that based on the value of breeding sows and farming efficiency, pig prices in 2025 may show a downward trend year-on-year, while remaining relatively stable throughout the year. Additionally, profit expectations are exceeded due to declining costs, with a focus on high-quality pig companies that exhibit significant changes in marginal costs and have a good financial position [1]. Group 1 - The analysis suggests a potential year-on-year decline in pig prices for 2025 [1] - The pig market is expected to operate relatively steadily within the year [1] - Profit expectations are anticipated to exceed due to a decrease in costs [1] Group 2 - There is an emphasis on monitoring high-quality pig companies with significant changes in marginal costs [1] - Companies with a good financial position are highlighted as key areas of focus [1]

Core Insights - Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) has implemented a series of layoffs in Lawrenceville, New Jersey, totaling 1,223 employees since April 2024, with 874 of those occurring in 2025 alone, nearing an annual total of 900 layoffs [1][3][4] - The layoffs are part of a strategic restructuring plan aimed at achieving significant cost savings, with a target of $1.5 billion by the end of 2025 and an increased goal of $3.5 billion by 2027 [3][4] Layoff Implementation Schedule - The layoffs will be executed in phases, starting on September 25, 2025, and concluding by January 15, 2026 [2] - It remains uncertain whether the layoffs will affect the commercial and late-stage R&D teams, which are critical to BMS's operations [2] Cost Reduction Strategy - BMS's layoffs are part of a broader cost-cutting strategy initiated in April 2024, with an initial plan to cut 2,200 jobs by the end of 2024 [3] - The company reported a 6% year-over-year decline in Q1 2025 revenue, totaling $11.2 billion, with U.S. market revenue down 7% to $7.9 billion, yet it remains optimistic about its annual revenue forecast, adjusting it to a range of $45.8 billion to $46.8 billion [3] Historical Layoff Trends - In 2024, BMS conducted three rounds of layoffs in Lawrenceville, totaling 349 employees, while 2025 has seen an accelerated pace with significant layoffs in February and May [4] - The ongoing layoffs reflect a broader trend in the pharmaceutical industry, where companies are restructuring to focus on core therapeutic areas and innovation pipelines [4]