Group 1 - The recent conflict between Iran and Israel led to a significant market reaction, with Bitcoin's value temporarily dropping to 716,000 RMB (approximately 98,000 USD) before recovering to 756,000 RMB (103,600 USD) after a ceasefire was reached [1] - The market is showing signs of resilience, with Bitcoin maintaining a critical support level at 756,000 RMB, which is seen as a psychological barrier for bullish investors [1] - Historical data indicates that Bitcoin has only experienced two significant corrections of over 30% since the bull market began in November 2022, suggesting a strong market structure [3] Group 2 - The net inflow of Bitcoin into Binance has drastically decreased to 5,700 BTC, which is less than half of the four-year average, indicating a shift towards a "HODL phase" where investors are holding onto their assets [3] - The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts on Binance has dropped to -0.0033%, suggesting that many speculators are betting on a price decline, which historically has led to significant price increases when similar conditions occurred [3] - The U.S. housing finance market is now allowing Bitcoin to be used as collateral for mortgages, marking a significant policy shift that could open up substantial new demand for Bitcoin [5] Group 3 - The FHFA's directive allows borrowers to use Bitcoin holdings as proof of loan qualification without converting to fiat currency, which could lead to an influx of institutional interest in Bitcoin [5] - Bitcoin's price is currently consolidating between 770,000 and 778,000 RMB, with technical indicators suggesting a bullish trend [5] - The market is at a critical juncture, with a potential breakout point at 109,300 USD (approximately 797,000 RMB), which could lead to significant upward movement if surpassed [5] Group 4 - Tether is investing 10 billion USD to create the largest Bitcoin mining operation, indicating a strategic move to enhance Bitcoin network security and potentially increase market influence [5] - Altcoins are also showing bullish signals, with XRP and Ethereum breaking key resistance levels, suggesting a broader market rally may be underway [5] - The recent geopolitical tensions and U.S. policy changes are reshaping the underlying logic of currency value, positioning Bitcoin as a viable asset in traditional finance [7]

【宏观】 中央财政发力：扩内需，保民生 壹｜本周深度报告汇总 5 月央、地层面支出增速分化，前者升，后者落。这体现了中央财政在扩大内需、保障民生方面积极发 力。下半年宏观政策延续积极方向，有望边际加码。 风险提示： 房地产需求有待提振，海外需求仍面临不确定性 。 【策略】 声暂歇处，趋势未央 本周股指调整看似源于外部冲击，实则是结构性交易拥挤下的正常风险释放，后续中国的确定性仍是股市 稳定和阶梯上升的重要基础，看好金融、成长与部分周期。 风险提示： 海外经济衰退超预期，全球地缘政治的不确定性 。 06 、 【批零社服】 免税行业：节奏修复中的配置价值 07、 【有色】 降本大趋势，供给分化新平衡 ③随着 AH 流动性差距缩小，叠加中概股及 A 股优质资产注入，港股新兴产业占比望提升， AH 溢价中 枢将趋势性下行。 风险提示： A 股企业赴港上市不及预期。南向流入港股规模不及预期 。 【海外策略】 港股涨跌更看谁的"脸色" ① 历史上港股与美股走势更相关，但 2020 年以来背离增多，而港股与 A 股联动明显增强。②原因 1 ：过去港股外资占比高且港币与美元挂钩，流动性多受海外影响，当前外资占比下降、南向流入 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical risk premium associated with tensions in the Middle East is diminishing, leading to a significant expected decline in oil prices this week [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movement - Benchmark crude oil prices are projected to drop by 11% to 12% this week [1] - The geopolitical risk premium in the spot market has decreased from nearly $15 per barrel at its peak on Sunday to below $1 [1] Group 2: Market Focus - Market attention is shifting towards the upcoming US-Iran nuclear negotiations and trade talks [1] - OPEC+ is set to decide on production policies for August on July 6 [1] - President Trump is facing decisions regarding reciprocal tariffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gold market is experiencing a downward trend in gold prices after a brief increase, with specific brands showing varying price changes [1][4]. Price Movements - Lao Feng Xiang gold price decreased by 4 yuan per gram, now at 1002 yuan per gram, making it the highest-priced brand [1][3]. - Shanghai China Gold remains unchanged at 981 yuan per gram, the lowest price among the brands [1][3]. - The price difference between the highest and lowest brand is now 21 yuan per gram, slightly narrowed [1]. Brand Price Summary - Lao Miao gold price: 996 yuan per gram, down by 4 yuan [1][3]. - Liufu gold price: 998 yuan per gram, unchanged [1][3]. - Chow Tai Fook gold price: 998 yuan per gram, unchanged [1][3]. - Zhou Liufu gold price: 978 yuan per gram, unchanged [1][3]. - Gold recovery prices have also seen a slight decrease of 4.4 yuan per gram [4]. International Market Context - The spot gold price showed a decline, currently at 3297.75 USD per ounce, down by 0.90% [7]. - The drop in gold prices is attributed to positive U.S. economic data, which has reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July [7]. - Recent U.S. initial jobless claims were reported at 236,000, lower than the expected 243,000, and durable goods orders increased by 16.4%, the largest rise since July 2014 [7].

缺乏明确的鸽派沟通反常地削弱了美元，表明市场参与者已经为更宽松的言论做好了准备。《华尔街日 报》报道称，美国总统特朗普考虑最早于9月宣布鲍威尔的继任者，这给货币政策预期带来了政治上的 不确定性。 周五(6月27日)亚市盘中，伦敦金价格短线急跌，目前位于3298.90美元/盎司，跌幅0.86%，今日金价开 盘报3327.55美元/盎司，最高上探3328.16美元/盎司，最低触及3289.09美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 鲍威尔主席的半年度国会证词引起了市场明显的失望，因为他谨慎的做法未能与交易员对鸽派政策信号 的预期一致。鲍威尔重申了美联储的"观望"态度，没有就7月份可能的利率调整提供明确的指导，这造 成了一个政策真空，外汇市场将其解读为长期的限制性货币条件。 传统的三到四个月的过渡时间可能会加速，这可能会从根本上改变美联储的独立性动态，并在实际领导 层换届前几个月就产生预期的政策影响。 围绕利率政策的政治压力创造了一个复杂的环境，在这个环境中，市场预期包括政治继任概率，央行信 誉面临外部挑战，政策连续性假设需要重新校准，机构独立性成为一个市场变量。这些动态表明，外汇 市场正在定价超出了传统经济基本面的政治风险溢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The shift in investment from gold to platinum is driven by "gold fatigue," leading to a surge in platinum prices to over a decade high due to rapid global inventory depletion and supply constraints [1][7]. Group 1: Platinum Price Movement - On June 26, platinum prices surged by up to 4.6%, reaching the highest level since 2014, while palladium saw a rise of over 6%, marking its highest point since November of the previous year [1]. - Platinum futures continued to rise, reaching $1,420 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Contrary to expectations that tariff policies would dampen demand, actual market behavior shows increased accumulation in both China and the U.S., leading to a sharp decline in globally tradable platinum inventory [3][5]. - Approximately 500,000 ounces of platinum have flowed into U.S. warehouses, driven by profitable arbitrage opportunities and tariff concerns [5]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The current market shows extreme supply tightness, indicated by the "spot premium" where platinum futures prices are significantly lower than spot prices [6]. - The implied borrowing cost for one-month platinum leasing remains high at an annualized rate of about 13%, well above the typical near-zero levels [6]. - Major platinum spot markets in London and Zurich have exhibited signs of tightness for several months, confirming the severity of supply shortages [6]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The rise in platinum prices is part of a broader trend of global currency devaluation, with investors seeking hedging tools beyond gold, leading to increased interest in platinum and silver [7]. - Platinum futures have seen a year-to-date increase of over 50% [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-06-27 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘因素弱化，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化 ...

在这个充满政治戏剧和市场猜测的季节里，唐纳德·特朗普总统再次成为了头条新闻的制造者，这次的 目标是美国经济的守护者——联邦储备系统。 据知情人士透露，特朗普正考虑打破传统，大幅提前宣布下一任美联储主席的人选，这距离现任主席杰 罗姆·鲍威尔的任期结束还有近一年的时间。 这场不同寻常的"选秀"不仅是对鲍威尔的公开施压，更是一场试图在正式交接前就影响货币政策的"后 座司机"策略，让华尔街的交易员们既感到困惑，又嗅到了潜在的交易机会。 特朗普对鲍威尔的不满早已不是秘密。他认为鲍威尔在降息问题上过于"谨慎"，未能充分利用货币政策 来"涡轮增压"经济，配合他那"一个、大、美丽的法案"（The One, Big, Beautiful Bill）所描绘的增长蓝 图。 白宫的官方说法是，美联储应该追求"以增长为导向"的政策，但翻译过来，这通常意味着：总统希望看 到更低的利率，而且是越快越好。 现在，特朗普的耐心似乎已经耗尽。他正在考虑在今年秋天，甚至可能在夏天就宣布他心目中的下一任 美联储掌门人。这比通常的过渡期提前了整整半年。 这个想法的核心是创造一个"候任主席"，让这位被选中人能够提前进入公众视野，通过公开发言来塑造 市场 ...

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 27 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 1. 2025 年 6 月 26 日 0#锌主流成交价集中在 22290~22390 元/吨，双燕成交 于 22380~22530 元/吨，1#锌主流成交于 22220~22320 元/吨。早盘市场对 均价报价升水 40~50 元/吨，无对盘报价。第二交易时段，普通国产报价 对 2507 合约升水 110 元/吨，白银对 2507 合约升水 160 元/吨，会泽对 2507 合约升水 200 元/吨，高价品牌双燕对 2507 合约报价升水 200~250 元/吨。 2. 宁波市场主流品牌 0#锌成交价在 22280~223 ...