瑞银资产管理公司全球主权市场策略与咨询主管马克斯•卡斯泰利表示，这些担忧表明，"非常明显"的 是，关税措施改变了储备管理者对美元的看法。 调查称，29%的受访者希望减少对美国资产的敞口，以应对近期的事态发展。然而，在未来一年，25% 的央行表示，在剔除那些希望增加美元敞口的央行后，它们预计将减少美元敞口，略低于过去一年。 卡斯泰利说:"当你问:你认为美元的主导地位真的会发生重大变化吗?答案是否定的。"他补充称，储备管 理者需要时间进行调整。 近80%的受访者预计，美元(目前占外汇储备的58%)仍将是全球储备货币。在未来一年，黄金是最大的 赢家，52%的央行希望增加黄金储备。 卡斯泰利表示，这主要反映出新兴市场央行对制裁风险的担忧，主要涉及存放在美国的黄金。特朗普的 政策也重新引发了德国对其央行黄金储备的质疑，其中一些黄金储备存放在纽约联邦储备银行。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银资产管理公司周四公布的一项调查显示，三分之二的央行管理者担心美联储的 独立性受到威胁，近一半的官员认为美国的法治可能会恶化到足以严重影响他们的资产配置。 近40家央行中有35%认为，美国可能会要求盟友将长期债务转换为其他工具，如超长期零息债 ...

瑞银调查显示，65%的受访者认为美联储独立性面临风险，47%的人认为风险法治恶化到足以影响资产 配置。 ...

鲍威尔的态度成为这场风波的核心悬念。他多次拒绝透露，在明年 5 月四年主席任期届满后，是选择卸任，还是继续留任美联储理事会。从制度层面看，鲍 威尔在技术上完全可以担任理事直至 2028 年 1 月任期结束。这种不确定性迫使政府官员不得不未雨绸缪，为美联储主席继任者制定多套备选方案。而特朗 普的目标十分明确，他迫切希望找到一位能够坚定支持其经济议程的美联储主席，试图将货币政策纳入自己的施政轨道。 特朗普曾在周二自信满满地宣称，自己心中已有 "两三个顶级人选" 可能接替鲍威尔，但却对具体姓名讳莫如深。更具戏剧性的是，据知情人士透露，最近 几周，特朗普的顾问甚至脑洞大开，与他讨论过让贝森特同时担任财政部长和美联储主席的可能性。这一设想如若成真，将彻底打破自 1935 年以来两项职 务分立的传统，在金融界和政界引发强烈震动。不过，白宫官员迅速出面辟谣，坚称相关报道是 "彻头彻尾的假新闻"，财政部发言人也引用贝森特本人的 表态，称其对现职颇为满意。 Juno markets发现当美国总统特朗普将目光聚焦于美联储主席的人选更替时，一场充满火药味的政治与经济博弈在华盛顿悄然上演。特朗普及其顾问团队试 图为美联储寻找新舵手， ...

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's potential departure has prompted the Trump administration to consider multiple candidates for his successor, with a focus on someone who aligns with Trump's economic agenda [1][2]. Group 1: Succession Planning - Trump has indicated he has "two or three top candidates" in mind to replace Powell but has not disclosed their names [1]. - Discussions have occurred regarding the possibility of appointing Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to serve simultaneously as both Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve Chairman, which would break a long-standing tradition [1]. - Powell's potential continuation in his role has led to speculation about the administration's approach to selecting a successor who would be compliant with Trump's policies [2]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The current political climate surrounding the Federal Reserve is more sensitive than usual, with Powell's silence on his future causing frustration among Trump's advisors [2][3]. - Trump's ability to reshape the Federal Reserve Board is limited, as current board member Adriana Kugler's term ends in January, providing only one opportunity to fill a vacancy before Powell's term ends [2]. - The nomination of a new chairman requires Senate approval, and the narrow Republican majority means Trump can afford to lose only three votes [3]. Group 3: Powell's Influence - If Powell remains on the Board, he can still influence interest rate decisions through the Federal Open Market Committee, which consists of 19 members [4]. - The potential new chairman's influence on monetary policy is uncertain, especially if the candidate is not from the current Board [4]. - Powell's established loyalty among current Board members may provide him with leverage, regardless of who succeeds him [4].

围绕下一届美联储主席人选的博弈正在加剧，鲍威尔对未来去向的沉默，贝森特兼任可能性的浮现，都 为美国货币政策的独立性前景注入了新的变数。 鲍威尔周二在与全球央行行长们的小组讨论中被问及任期问题时，他仅简短回应："关于此事，我无可 奉告。" 据媒体援引知情人士透露，鲍威尔的谨慎态度令特朗普的一些顾问感到沮丧，他们认为这是鲍威尔试图 抵制总统干预货币政策的一种方式。 文艺复兴宏观研究公司的经济研究主管Neil Dutta表示，鲍威尔不明确表态，恰恰是他此刻拥有的"筹 码"。Dutta认为："如果特朗普选择一个对总统要求唯唯诺诺的候选人，这正是鲍威尔可能留在理事会 的动机。" 如果鲍威尔选择留任理事，特朗普在任期内仅有一次预定的理事会席位任命机会，这将严重限制其重塑 美联储的能力。 特朗普周二表示已有"两到三个顶级候选人"接替鲍威尔，但拒绝透露具体人选。据彭博援引知情人士透 露，近几周来特朗普的顾问甚至与他讨论了让财政部长贝森特同时担任美联储主席的可能性。这将是自 1935年两职分离以来的史无前例之举。 鲍威尔将可以继续在由19人组成的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）中对利率决策施加影响，并可能团结 那些与他共事多年的 ...

白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特当天在新闻发布会上表示，特朗普将图表发给了美联储。 7月1日，特朗普在总统专机"空军一号"上表示，对于下一任美联储主席，他有"两个或三个人选"，但没 有提供更多信息。 新华社北京7月2日电 综述｜特朗普频繁施压美联储 鲍威尔坚持货币政策"非政治化" 新华社记者刘轶芳 美国总统特朗普本周连续发声，要求美国联邦储备委员会进一步降息，并以下一任美联储主席人选的话 题对现任主席鲍威尔施压。鲍威尔回应称，美联储货币政策必须"完全非政治"，重申央行仍在观察美国 关税带来的影响，而后再进一步决策。 特朗普6月30日在他的社交媒体平台上发布一张图表，声称美国是全球关键利率水平最高的央行之一。 特朗普还在该图表上手写评论，批评鲍威尔让美国损失数以千亿计美元，称"你应该大幅降低利率"，并 在图表中将美国应设利率标注在1%左右位置。特朗普在贴文中称，美联储"应该为自己允许这种情况发 生在美国而感到羞耻"。 高盛日前上调美国2025年利率预测，预计9月、10月和12月将分别降息25个基点，原因是关税影响减弱 和劳动力市场疲软。花旗集团和富国银行也预计美联储将在2025年降息75个基点，瑞银预测降息100个 ...

Group 1 - Ernst & Young LLP (EY) informed Shell plc that it was not in compliance with SEC auditor independence rules for the audits of the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2024, leading to the need for amended Form 20-Fs [1][2] - The financial statements for 2023 and 2024 remain unchanged despite the amendment, and EY's audit opinions are still unqualified [1][5] - EY determined that the lead audit partner for the applicable years had exceeded the allowed period under SEC audit partner rotation rules, making them ineligible for the role [3] Group 2 - A different partner has been assigned by EY to lead the audit, and it has been concluded that no changes to the previously issued financial statements are necessary [4] - The appropriate remediation has been completed, allowing EY to exercise objective and impartial judgment regarding the US audit opinions in the amended Form 20-Fs [4] - The time limitations under the UK Financial Reporting Council's Revised Ethical Standard regarding partner rotation were also exceeded, but no amended filings are required in the UK [7]

独立性准则蕴含多个看点：一方面，与我国现行法律法规体系有机衔接，在具体规定方面彰显中国特色；另一 方面，注重将国际守则的先进成果与国内的执业实践相结合，某些条款比国际守则更加严格，体现我国从严打 击资本市场财务造假的决心。 在实务规范层面，从审计收费、礼品和款待、经济利益到人员关系等具体场景均制定详尽细则；公众利益实体 范围进一步拓展，中央企业集团公司、公开交易实体、以吸收公众存款或提供保险为主要职能的实体等涉及广 泛公众利益的主体，均被纳入独立性监管范畴。 针对行业监管中发现的实际问题，准则作出多项针对性规定，例如明确禁止会计师事务所代审计客户编制财务 报表或附注，切断"既当运动员又当裁判"的利益链条；严令禁止以或有收费方式提供审计服务，从经济机制上 杜绝独立性妥协的可能性。 此次改革通过体系化制度创新，将"实质独立"这一主观职业操守转化为可量化的客观合规标准。站在行业发展 视角，新规的实施将推动注册会计师行业向专业化、规范化方向深度转型。当独立性成为不可触碰的行业底 线，审计才能真正回归资本市场"看门人"角色。这场从制度设计到实践落地的深度变革，既是对行业发展痛点 的精准回应，也是重塑审计公信力、推动市场 ...

7月1日，《中国注册会计师独立性准则第1号——财务报表审计和审阅业务对独立性的要求》正式施 行，我国注册会计师行业独立性监管迈入制度化新阶段。 独立性是审计业务的灵魂所在。2020年12月，中注协对《中国注册会计师职业道德守则（2020）》予以 修订发布，对提升注册会计师职业道德水平发挥了积极作用。然而，在近年的监管案例中，会计师事务 所及注册会计师违反独立性要求的情况不时出现，独立性缺失成为审计失败的重要诱因。这一议题也受 到了监管机构与社会公众的高度关注。 独立性准则蕴含多个看点：一方面，与我国现行法律法规体系有机衔接，在具体规定方面彰显中国特 色；另一方面，注重将国际守则的先进成果与国内的执业实践相结合，某些条款比国际守则更加严格， 体现我国从严打击资本市场财务造假的决心。 在实务规范层面，从审计收费、礼品和款待、经济利益到人员关系等具体场景均制定详尽细则；公众利 益实体范围进一步拓展，中央企业集团公司、公开交易实体、以吸收公众存款或提供保险为主要职能的 实体等涉及广泛公众利益的主体，均被纳入独立性监管范畴。 针对行业监管中发现的实际问题，准则作出多项针对性规定，例如明确禁止会计师事务所代审计客户编 制 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is becoming a central battleground in U.S. politics and economics, influenced by President Trump's pressure for interest rate cuts and the complexities of global economic uncertainty and tariff policies [1][3]. Group 1: Pressure on the Federal Reserve - President Trump has publicly called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to between 0.5% and 1.75%, criticizing the current leadership for being slow and costing the U.S. economy "hundreds of billions" [3]. - The current policy rate is maintained at 4.25%-4.5%, significantly higher than Trump's target, with Fed officials emphasizing that policy decisions should be data-driven [4][5]. - The Fed's cautious stance is attributed to persistent inflation risks and the need to maintain its independence from political pressures [5]. Group 2: Transition Planning for Fed Leadership - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is preparing for the transition of the Fed chair position after Powell's term ends in May 2026, aiming for a smooth nomination process in late 2025 [6][8]. - Potential candidates for the Fed chair include current Fed Governor Waller, who is familiar with monetary policy frameworks [7]. - The government plans to follow traditional procedures for the nomination process, contrasting with Trump's high-profile pressure tactics [8]. Group 3: Economic Data as Decision-Making Factors - Key economic data from July to August will be critical for the Fed's decision-making, including employment reports and inflation data [10]. - If employment data indicates a cooling labor market, it may open the door for a rate cut in September [10]. - The upcoming tariff policy decisions will also significantly impact inflation expectations and the Fed's approach [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing conflict over interest rates has evolved into a broader debate about the Fed's independence, with potential implications for economic stability [11]. - If summer data supports a rate cut, tensions may ease; however, persistent inflation could exacerbate conflicts between the White House and the Fed, affecting market stability [11]. - Market participants are advised to closely monitor key economic data and Fed officials' statements for signals of policy shifts [11].