Core Viewpoint - The recent confusion regarding U.S. military aid to Ukraine stems from Defense Secretary Mark Esper's unilateral decision to pause certain arms shipments without notifying the White House, leading to a chaotic internal decision-making process within the Trump administration [1][3][5]. Group 1: Decision-Making Process - Secretary Esper authorized the pause in arms shipments following President Trump's request for an evaluation of military stockpiles, but did not receive explicit instructions to halt aid to Ukraine [3][4]. - The decision to pause aid was reportedly influenced by Deputy Defense Secretary Elbridge Colby, who has been skeptical of large-scale military assistance to Ukraine [3][4]. - The Pentagon's announcement of the pause caught not only the White House off guard but also other key officials, including the U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and the Secretary of State [3][4]. Group 2: Military Aid Details - The halted shipment included dozens of Patriot missiles, thousands of 155mm artillery shells, and over 100 Hellfire missiles, which were already prepared for transport to Ukraine [4][5]. - Colby stated that the Pentagon was reviewing and adjusting the military aid to align with the goal of ending the conflict in Ukraine while maintaining U.S. military readiness [4][5]. Group 3: Internal Conflicts and Reactions - The decision to pause aid has been criticized internally, with military officials indicating that while some high-precision munitions are at low levels, they are not below the minimum required for military readiness [5][6]. - This incident marks the third time Esper has unilaterally halted aid to Ukraine without prior coordination with the White House or Congress, raising concerns about his decision-making approach [5][6]. - Colby has faced backlash for his unilateral actions, which have reportedly caused friction with both U.S. allies and within the government [6].

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 10 | 9510 | -88 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2586 | | | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 7 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) -712 期货市场 | 60 281867 | 6 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) -12874 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 273 567429 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | | 15732 | -2370 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -11828 | 2352 | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | | 3021 | 301 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 15663 | -136 | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | | 704.6 | ...

2025年中期策略展望 己日革之，待时而动 西南证券研究院 策略团队 程睿智 2025年7月 目录 一、海外：财政风险暴露,指示潜在的全球流动性冲击 二、国内：通缩预期缓解，激活持续淤积的自由超额流动性 三、A股：狭窄区间内的快速轮动 财政风险暴露 四、行业配置思路 1 流动性层级 市场流动性 全球气候 /降雨雪山融水 • 全球美元 流动性 江河里的水 • 国内宏观 流动性 农田灌溉沟渠 里的水 • 市场流动性 经济+政治 经济+政策 外资流动+风偏传导 数据来源：西南证券整理 2 全球流动性 国内宏观流动性 从债的视角，80年代以来到2022年之前，10年期美债利率有一条长期下行通道。过去每次利率触碰到下 行通道上轨形成的美债拐点无不与联储宽松有关。然而这个通道已经在22年后被向上突破，世界从全球 化走向对抗的同时，全球经济的平稳状态已经被打破。 10年期美债利率的长期下行通道（%） 标普500走势（左轴，%） 和10年期美债（右轴，%） 数据来源： 3 wind，西南证券整理 财政风险暴露 美元美债的背离：23年Q3的重演；美债上，美元下，反映的是财政风险的计价更加极致。 美元美债的背离 数据来源：IMF ...

Group 1: Core Perspectives - The meeting between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu highlighted a shared short-term victory over Iran's nuclear program, but underlying strategic differences remain evident [2][3] - Trump emphasizes a diplomatic approach to ensure Iran does not develop nuclear weapons, while Netanyahu advocates for more aggressive military actions to force Iran into significant concessions [3][4] Group 2: Divergence on Gaza Situation - Trump is pushing for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, aiming to present himself as a global peace broker, while Netanyahu is focused on completely dismantling Hamas, which complicates the peace process [4][5] - The gap between short-term ceasefire and long-term solutions remains significant, with Netanyahu expressing dissatisfaction over U.S. plans to restart nuclear negotiations with Iran [4][5] Group 3: Strategies and Alternatives - Netanyahu seeks a "Libya model" for Iran, demanding complete dismantlement of nuclear facilities under strict supervision, contrasting with Trump's desire for a diplomatic breakthrough [5][6] - Israel's backup plan involves ongoing military actions to prevent the resurgence of Iran's nuclear program, while the U.S. adopts a hedging strategy, balancing between military action and diplomatic engagement [6][7] Group 4: Unfinished Business - The narrative of Iran's nuclear program being destroyed is seen as a warning from Trump to avoid further demands, indicating a reluctance to deepen U.S. involvement [7] - Despite military setbacks for Iran, the potential for rebuilding its capabilities remains, suggesting that Netanyahu's objectives regarding Iran are far from complete [7]

美国关税反复扰动，黄金日内震荡下破！亚欧盘反弹承压，空头能否持续发力？立即观看超V推荐官 Jason的分析，马上进入直播间>>> 相关链接 ...

点击图片▲收听音频 1. 本文内容精选自2025年7月8日《每天听见吴晓波》的音频，会员可收听全部内 容，非会员可试听前1分钟。 【点击此处，收听音频】 2. 6月24日—7月25日期间购买《每天听见吴晓波》，可享"买1年得2年"的福利，还 送定制笔记本1本。 【点击此处，参与活动】 口述 / 吴晓波 （微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 几天前的7月3号下午，美国众议院以218票对214票的微弱优势，通过了特朗普政府的"大而 美"法案。 这项法案从4月草拟以来，就因为大幅减税、缩减联邦援助等内容而争议不断，并引发了美国两 党的激烈对抗。 无论是在众议院还是参议院，法案的投票都呈现出泾渭分明的党派划线。经过几个月的拉锯， 法案最终涉险过关。 7月4号是美国的独立日，特朗普选择在这一天正式签署"大而美"法案，他宣称法案是"摆脱国家 衰落的独立宣言"，是对独立日的"献礼"。那这项法案到底说了什么，又为什么引发了巨大的争 议呢？我们来看法案的具体内容。 首先，"大而美"法案永久性地延长了特朗普在2017年第一个任期内通过的企业和个人减税措 施，进一步削减了企业和富人的税负，但却使底层民众的处境恶化。 具体来看，法案规定将美国 ...

Group 1 - The article contrasts the American Dream as represented by Forrest Gump and Warren Buffett, highlighting the different paths to success for blue-collar and white-collar workers [1][3] - Buffett's retirement marks the end of an era for American capitalism, which has thrived for 70 years, paralleling the nation's economic journey [4][5] - The article discusses the dual nature of American capitalism, dividing it into the "Cathedral" (representing prosperity) and the "Casino" (representing risk and speculation) [7][10] Group 2 - The "Cathedral" symbolizes the dollar's global purchasing power, while the "Casino" encompasses various markets where investors gamble with their capital [8][9] - The interdependence of the Cathedral and Casino is crucial, with the former being the foundation for the latter's existence [10] - Buffett advocates for continued trade and prosperity, emphasizing that global prosperity benefits the U.S. economy [11] Group 3 - Dalio predicts a historic transformation in the global order, likening it to the changes of the 1930s, with significant implications for monetary, domestic, and international systems [12] - The U.S. national debt has reached alarming levels, exceeding 122% of the economy, raising concerns about sustainability [13][22] - Dalio warns that the U.S. must reduce its deficit to below 3% to avoid a potential economic crisis, while current policies may push it to 7.5% [20] Group 4 - The article highlights the growing political and social divisions in the U.S., which Dalio describes as akin to a civil war, threatening the stability that has historically attracted talent and investment [25][30] - The decline of the middle class due to manufacturing job losses and automation exacerbates wealth and opportunity gaps, leading to political fragmentation [31][30] Group 5 - The article discusses the challenges of globalization for U.S. capitalism, as other nations seek to prioritize their national interests, potentially disrupting supply chains [32][33] - The trade war with China is framed as a strategy to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., but the complexities of global supply chains make this difficult [34][39] - Japan and Europe are exploring ways to assert their financial independence from the U.S., indicating a shift in the global economic landscape [40][41][42] Group 6 - Buffett's recent actions, including significant stock sell-offs and increased cash reserves, suggest a cautious outlook on the future of American capitalism [46] - Dalio emphasizes the need for investors to consider inflation-resistant assets and maintain liquidity in light of geopolitical risks [47]

【基本面消息】 数据显示，7月9日上海黄金现货价格报价763.39元/克，相较于期货主力价格（766.82元/克）贴水3.43 元/克。 美国总统特朗普发文表示，关税将于2025年8月1日开始实施，"该日期没有变化，以后也不会改变"。可 能未来两天向欧盟发征税函。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 7月9日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 766.82 | -1.00% | 310838 | 181258 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 日本5月经常项目顺差3.44万亿日元，同比增长16.5%。出口额同比下滑1.4%，进口额减少7.5%，贸易收 支逆差5223亿日元。 【机构观点】 宁证期货：全球多国回应特朗普最新关税措施。日本和韩国表示"遗憾"，但均表达了通过谈判解决问题 的意愿。泰国对关税税率感到惊讶，南非总统对关税计算方式提出异议，而巴西总统态度强硬，批评美 方做法"错误且不负责任"。德国财长警告称，若不能与美国达成公平的贸易协议，欧盟准备采取反制措 施。评：虽然各国对关税均有所 ...

来源：IC Research 在2025年7月8日的内阁会议上，特朗普表示他仍在计划对包括药品、半导体和金属在内的特定行业征收关税；将对铜征收50%的关税，对药品征收高达 200%的关税。 随后，美国商务部长卢特尼克称，铜关税将于7月稍晚或8月1日到位。对制药、半导体领域的调查将于月底完成。受此消息影响，纽约期铜直线拉升，涨 幅一度扩大至17%，报5.89美元/磅。 特朗普早在2025年2月25日签署行政命令，根据1962年《贸易扩张法》第232条，指示商务部调查铜进口对美国国家安全的影响。调查涵盖所有形式的铜进 口，包括原铜、铜精矿、精炼铜、铜合金、废铜及衍生产品，报告预计于11月22日前提交。 铜作为军事装备、电动车、数据中心及电力网络的关键材料，对美国国防及新兴科技至关重要。特朗普强调，关税旨在重建美国铜工业，减少对外国供应 的依赖，确保国家安全及经济稳定。此前，特朗普已于6月4日将钢铁及铝材关税从25%上调至50%，并取消对加拿大、墨西哥、欧盟等多国的豁免，显示 其"美国优先"政策力度加剧。 全球半导体行业正面临一场新的供应链危机威胁。由于干旱加剧导致关键原材料铜的供应正面临风险。 根据普华永道7月8 ...

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk has announced that his newly formed political party, the "American Party," will prioritize the exposure of documents related to the Epstein case, criticizing former President Trump for not releasing these files [1][3]. Group 1: Musk's Political Moves - Musk confirmed on his social media platform X that the exposure of Epstein-related documents will be a priority for the "American Party" [1]. - The "American Party" aims to focus on securing 2 to 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House seats to become a decisive force in Congress, leveraging this "critical minority" to influence significant legislation [4]. Group 2: Trump's Response - Trump dismissed questions about his alleged connections to Epstein, expressing disbelief that the topic is still being discussed and emphasizing the need to focus on current issues like the Texas floods [2]. - Trump criticized Musk's announcement of a new political party as "absurd" and expressed disappointment over Musk's recent behavior, suggesting that a third party has never succeeded in the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Legal Developments - The U.S. Department of Justice and FBI released a memo stating that no evidence was found to support the existence of a "client list" related to Epstein, contradicting previous statements made by the Justice Department [3]. - Musk reacted to the DOJ's statement by posting a meme that illustrated the shifting positions of the government regarding the Epstein case [3].