Core Viewpoint - The decline in U.S. consumer confidence in June is attributed to widespread concerns about the economy, job market, and personal financial outlook due to trade policy implications [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93 in June, lower than all economists' expectations [1] - This decline highlights ongoing worries about the potential economic impact of increased import tariffs [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending Behavior - Despite moderate inflation over the past three months, some consumers are becoming more cautious in their spending [1] - Consumers' assessment of current business conditions has become more pessimistic compared to May [1] Group 3: Employment Outlook - The perception of current job opportunities has weakened for the sixth consecutive month, although it remains in positive territory, aligning with a still strong job market [1]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 5,710 -11 -0.20% 171,885 -10.50% 349,073 -1.34% 5,744 - 6 -0.10% 1,817 -21.38% 11,080 -5.23% 5,597 -22 -0.39% 22,478 -26.02% 51,737 0.95% 柳州 昆明 湛江 南宁 鲅鱼圈 日照 西安 6090 5860 - 6040 6175 6160 6420 -10 -5 - -10 0 0 0 493 263 - 443 578 563 823 SR07-SR11 价差 涨跌 SR09-SR11 价差 涨跌 SR07-SR09 价差 涨跌 147 1 6 113 215 3 4 5 国别 ICE主力 升贴水 运费 配额内价格 配额外价格 与柳州价差 与日照价差 与盘面价差 巴西进口 16.52 -0.06 36.25 4395 5617 473 543.00 127 泰国进口 16.52 0.83 1 8 4431 5664 42 ...

Core Conclusion - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 862 million, 1.14 billion, and 1.29 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 19.4%, 32.2%, and 13.4% respectively. Based on comparable company PE and historical PE, a valuation of 22 times PE for 2025 is given, corresponding to a target price of 64.1 yuan for 2025. The initial coverage is rated as "Buy" [1] Report Highlights - Recent market focus has been on the impact of tariffs on the lubricant additive industry, while the company's R&D capabilities and production capacity growth are emphasized as key potential drivers for growth. The report systematically analyzes the company's financial indicators, core products, and technologies to forecast growth from 2025 to 2027 [1] Major Logic - The company has seen a continuous increase in R&D investment, with 47 domestic invention patents, 2 foreign invention patents, and 4 utility model patents obtained by 2024. The company has independently mastered various formulations for diesel and gasoline engine oil additives, as well as other specialized oils, with several products passing third-party testing and obtaining OEM certifications [2] Profitability - The company has a complete production capability for mainstream single agents, covering a wide range of additive types. It also has production capabilities for key raw materials, leading to a high overall profitability, with a gross margin of 35.9% in 2024, an increase of 0.82 percentage points year-on-year [2] New Growth Drivers - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, establishing warehousing bases in Singapore, Dubai, and Belgium. In 2024, foreign revenue reached 2.226 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, accounting for 70.5% of total revenue. Ongoing projects are expected to significantly increase production capacity to over 700,000 tons in the next three years, enhancing scale and cost advantages [3]

据《今日印度》6月19日报道，印度对特定类型贵金属合金的进口实施管控措施。具体而言，按重量计 算含金量超过1%的合金被纳入限制范围，此类合金包含钯、铑及铱等金属成分（无论是否经过加工或 呈粉末状）。同时，胶体贵金属的进口也受到相应约束，所谓胶体贵金属即指金和银纳米颗粒在液态环 境中的悬浮液。 相关部门指出，当前政策通过准许自由进口含金量低于 1%的合金推动贸易发展，旨在保障工业与制造 业（涵盖电子、汽车零部件以及专业化学工业等）的原材料供应稳定且持续不断。该政策所采用的校准 手段，有效兼顾了贸易便利化需求与监管监督要求之间的平衡关系，实现了两者的有机协调。 鉴于黄金进口量呈上升趋势，相应的限制措施得以出台并实施。印度在 2023 - 24 年度的黄金进口量为 455.4 亿美元，至 2024 - 25 年度时，此数值已攀升至 580 亿美元，增长率超 27.3%。仅以 2025 年 3 月 为例，其黄金进口量实现大幅跃升，较去年同期增长 192%以上，达 44.7 亿美元，而去年同月该数据仅 为 15.3 亿美元。由于实施了严格的监测与限制举措，在本财年的前两个月（即 26 财年 4 月至 5 月期 间），黄 ...

Group 1: Banking Sector Insights - The core viewpoint of the report from China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the potential for substantial improvement in bank performance in the second half of 2025, driven by a combination of fiscal and monetary policy support, controlled interest margins, and improved risk expectations in corporate assets due to enhanced debt and real estate policies [1] - Key factors contributing to the expected performance improvement include: (1) coordinated fiscal and monetary policies guiding banks to increase credit issuance and optimize credit structure; (2) asymmetric interest rate cuts improving the controllability of interest margins; (3) enhanced debt management and real estate policy measures improving corporate asset risk expectations [1] - Three areas of investment opportunities are recommended: (1) recovery of public fund under-allocation, with structural opportunities in quality urban and rural commercial banks; (2) long-term capital inflows and ongoing assessments reinforcing the value and strategic allocation of the banking sector; (3) expansion and quality improvement of major broad-based index ETFs to capture investment value in constituent stocks [1] Group 2: Special Steel Demand Growth - CITIC Construction Investment highlights that the demand for high-end special steel in China is expected to grow rapidly, supported by strong government policies and the ongoing development of high-end manufacturing [2] - Currently, the proportion of high-end special steel in China is around 4%, with significant potential for growth as the industry matures, particularly in sectors such as new energy, shipbuilding, and aerospace [2] - Valuations for high-end special steel companies are anticipated to increase, with comparisons to developed countries showing valuations typically between 15-25 times, indicating a potential for valuation premium as China's high-end special steel sector is still in its growth phase [2] Group 3: Inverter Market Outlook - Huatai Securities reports that the long-term demand for inverters is strongly determined, with a notable increase in exports, reaching 5.97 billion yuan in May 2025, up 2.7% month-on-month, and export quantities reaching 5.899 million units, up 30.3% month-on-month [3] - The demand for inverters is driven by factors such as power outages, rising electricity prices, and significant growth in wind and solar installations, indicating a robust market outlook [3] - The report suggests that the price parity of solar storage is likely to further unlock demand potential, providing strong support for the performance of leading companies in the sector [3]

证券研究报告：基础化工 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-06-23 股票投资评级 增持 |首次覆盖 个股表现 2024-06 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -15% 3% 21% 39% 57% 75% 93% 111% 129% 147% 165% 泛亚微透 基础化工 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 50.50 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）0.91 | / 0.91 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）46 | / 46 | | 周内最高/最低价 52 | 58.09 / 23.91 | | 资产负债率(%) | 28.9% | | 市盈率 | 35.56 | | 第一大股东 | 张云 | 研究所 分析师:刘卓 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110001 Email:liuzhuo@cnpsec.com 分析师:虞洁攀 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050002 Email:yujiepan@cnpsec.com 公司所处赛道技术壁垒高，产品盈利能力优秀。公司采用"市场 利基、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a "low inventory, low price, low demand, high supply elasticity" weak equilibrium state, with future trends dependent on the intensity of production cuts and the speed of policy implementation [1][2] Supply - The government is continuing to implement crude steel production controls and promote "dual control of carbon emissions" [3] - Strict enforcement of production capacity replacement is mandated, prohibiting the addition of new steel production capacity under various pretenses [3] Demand - The proportion of steel used in manufacturing has been steadily increasing, nearing 50%, supported by stable traditional manufacturing and rapid growth in high-end manufacturing and strategic emerging industries [4] - The forecast for steel demand in manufacturing is projected to reach 440 million tons by 2025, driven by supportive monetary and fiscal policies [4] Profit - If a production cut of 50 million tons is implemented, the annual crude steel output would be 955 million tons, leading to a potential recovery in industry profitability with gross profit per ton expected to reach around 400 yuan [5][6] - If production remains at last year's levels, a rebound in output in the second half of the year could lead to oversupply and further profit decline [6] Investment Recommendations - For ordinary steel investments, focus on high dividend and high yield companies, particularly leaders in various downstream sectors, such as Hualing Steel and Baosteel [7] - For special steel and new materials, the demand for high-end special steel is expected to grow rapidly, with companies like Nanjing Steel and Jiu Li Special Materials being highlighted for potential investment [7]

Group 1 - India's crude oil imports in May increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 23.3 million tons [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 多空交织，豆粕高位震荡 （豆粕周报6.16-6.20） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆部分产区天气短 | 中性 | 美国大豆产区天气短期正 | | | 期相对正常 | | 常。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆偏强震荡，中美关税 | 偏多 | 进口成本预计冲高回落，中 | | | 谈判和美豆天气仍有变数 | | 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期回升，油厂 | 偏空 | 需求短期偏淡，油厂开机预 | | | 压榨量维持高位 | ...

| | | 柏类产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月23日 | | | | 朱迪 | Z0015979 | | | 直相 | | | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 旅跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏豆粕 | 2940 | 2940 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 期价 | M2509 | 3067 | 3077 | -10 | -0.32% | | | 基産 | M2509 | -127 | -137 | 10 | 7.30% | | | 现货基差报价 | 广东现货墓差 | m2509-140 | m2509-150 | - | - | | | 盘面进口榨利 | 美湾6月船期 | - | - | - | - | | | 盘面进口榨利 | 巴西8月船期 | 188 | 161 | 27 | 16.8% | | | 仓車 | | 26001 | 26001 | 0 | 0.0% | | | 来相 | | | | | | | ...