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专家 - 当前时点如何看待铝土矿?
2025-05-18 15:48
专家 - 当前时点如何看待铝土矿?20250518 摘要 • 中国国产铝土矿供应受资源禀赋、环保政策及进口矿过剩等多重因素影响, 预计未来几年供应稳定性增强,但整体增量或减量不会有显著波动。新 《自然资源法》可能提高投资热情,但短期内难大幅提升产量。 • 中国进口铝土矿市场自 2025 年起进入买方市场,供需过剩迹象明显。几 内亚企业预计增量出货,但顺达水电厂停产事件需重新评估供需平衡。尽 管如此,铝土矿价格仍处于历史高位。 • 中国铝土矿需求依赖进口,进口矿使用比例在四月份开始下降,尤其在山 西和河南地区,原因是氧化铝亏损面扩大导致减产。若亏损持续,进口矿 使用比例可能进一步降低,影响铝土矿市场。 • 铝土矿需求增量主要来自新项目库存采购,但电解铝和氧化铝产能限制了 铝土矿需求上限。广西新项目投产将提升精炼使用比例,而贵州因成本高 使用量极小,对市场影响有限。 • 铝土矿市场自 2024 年 12 月开始供应过剩,2025 年 1 月情况加剧,4 月 份过剩量达 600 万吨。尽管大部分交易为长单,现货市场过剩情况相对缓 和,但总体供应过剩量超过 1,000 万吨。 Q&A 全球铝土矿市场的供需情况如何? ...
几内亚矿石扰动加剧,氧化铝期价反弹
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-18 12:15
有 色 金 属 原料:上周国内矿石价格短期暂稳,山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/吨,河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿 的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。五一假期间检查组再次入驻山 西地区,节后相关部门加强对矿山检查。受安全环保、资源整合 及品位下降等影响,国内矿整体供应仍呈现紧缺的状态,复产矿 山以及存量矿山的产出稳定性有待观察。进口方面,市场成交处 于僵持阶段,矿石销售出现阶段性困难,几矿(45/3)暂时报价 70 美元/干吨。几内亚政府陆续撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题进 一步升级,Axis 矿区在前几日已经被列入政府撤销采矿许可证名 单。该矿区包含顺达矿业等矿业公司,涉及产能约 4000 万吨/ 年,规模较大令市场对远期矿石供应担忧加剧。到货方面,期内 新到矿石 409.9 万吨,其中新到几内亚资源 324.2 万吨,澳大利 亚资源 80.5 万吨。几内亚至中国的 Cape 船运费小幅下降于 19 美元/吨。 周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿石扰动加剧, 氧化铝期价反弹 [T走ab势le_评R级an:k] 氧化铝:震荡 报 ...
几内亚大型铝土矿停产,价格或受强支撑
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-18 12:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum resource sector, indicating a positive outlook due to supply disruptions in bauxite and alumina prices [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Guinean government's revocation of multiple bauxite mining rights may lead to a domestic bauxite shortage, potentially supporting bauxite and alumina prices [6][7]. - The report suggests that the acquisition of overseas potassium fertilizer projects by Salt Lake Co. could enhance its global presence and production capacity [6][7]. - The report expresses optimism for the performance of small metals such as tin, cobalt, and antimony in the medium to long term [6][7]. Industry Overview Aluminum Industry - The report notes that as of May 2025, there are 126 listed companies in the aluminum sector with a total market capitalization of approximately 288.51 billion yuan [3]. - The report indicates that Guinea accounts for 26% of global bauxite reserves and 29% of global production, with China importing 110 million tons of Guinean bauxite in 2024, representing 69.4% of total imports [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a shift from surplus to shortage in domestic bauxite supply, which could lead to price support for bauxite and alumina [6][7]. New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - The report discusses Salt Lake Co.'s intention to invest around 300 million USD in acquiring shares of Highland Resources, positioning it as a major stakeholder and enhancing its control over key potassium projects [6][7]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with clear growth potential in tin and cobalt, such as Xinyi Silver Tin and Luoyang Molybdenum [6][7].
铝土矿:几内亚政策导致供给扰动加剧,铝土矿资源价值凸显
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 10:50
证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 05 17 年 月 日 工业金属 铝土矿:几内亚政策导致供给扰动加剧,铝土矿资源价值凸显 事件:2025 年 5 月 14 日,几内亚总统马马迪·敦布亚(Mamadi Doumbouya)采取了强硬措施。根据总统令,政府将撤销 40 多家矿业公 司的工业和半工业采矿经营许可证,其中包含 7 家铝土矿企业。被撤销的 授权和证书将无偿归还国家。 几内亚政府撤销铝土矿经营许可证或影响产能超 4,000 万吨/年。几内亚 撤销经营许可证的 7 家铝土矿企业分别为几内亚铝业公司(Société des Bauxites de Guinée)、金博铝土矿公司(Bauxites de Kimbo)、非洲前进 资源公司(Société Forward Africa Ressources)、特丽莎矿业物流公司 (Société Teresa Mining Logistics)、兴荣矿业开发公司(Société Xing Rong Mining Development)、法科几内亚铝土矿公司((Société Faco Guinea Bauxite)和阿克西斯矿产公 ...
铝行业周报:中美双边关税大幅下降,库存维持强势表现-20250518
Guohai Securities· 2025-05-18 10:01
评级:推荐(维持) 证券研究报告 2025年05月18日 有色金属 铝行业周报:中美双边关税大幅下降,库存维持强势表现 《铝行业周报:关税压力缓和,政策定调积极(推荐)*有色金属*王璇,陈 晨》——2025-04-28 《铝行业周报:去库表现强势,关注需求及出口走向(推荐)*有色金属*王璇, 陈晨》——2025-04-21 《铝行业周报:关税压力缓解,铝价压制减弱,关注需求变化(推荐)*有色 金属*王璇,陈晨》——2025-04-14 沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 2.7% | 1.3% | -0.0% | | 沪深300 | 3.1% | -1.3% | 6.8% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 陈晨(证券分析师) 王璇(证券分析师) S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -24% -16% -8% 1% 9% 17% 2024/05 2024/08 2024/11 ...
铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20250518
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-18 08:41
铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉(首席分析师/所长助理) 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0002529 日期:2025年05月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝:对等关税暂取消,需求增速重新上修,继续关注光伏排产 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源:国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 本周伴随特朗普对等关税暂取消,市场风险情绪显著回归,给予了铝价较大的价格涨幅,这部分或得益于4月初对等关税 落地后,铝金属因其在终端出口制品上更广泛的受冲击面而一度被作为空配品种,此番关税意外取消后,此前例如多铜 空铝的对冲头寸快速平仓了结,这使得铝价获得了较明显的反弹弹性。 ◆ 边际上看,我们重新上修了全年度的原铝需求增速至2+%,这使得年中若铝价再次获得一定低点位置,在紧平衡、低库 存格局下,尤其是在铝需求增速不过分拖垮的前提下,年中可能出现的低点依然有一定概率成为下半年新的买点。 ◆ 至于2季度下半旬及7、8月铝价往下下探的空间,仍很大程度取决于光伏组件排产的降幅。现阶 ...
云南文山推进绿色产业集链成群
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-05-17 21:47
Core Insights - Yunnan Province's Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture is focusing on industrial economic growth by promoting green aluminum and biopharmaceutical industries, achieving a 11.2% year-on-year increase in industrial added value in Q1 [1] - The green aluminum industry is becoming a significant driver of industrial economic growth, with production of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy showing substantial year-on-year increases [1][2] Group 1: Green Aluminum Industry - Wenshan's electrolytic aluminum production capacity has reached 3.43 million tons, with a comprehensive output value exceeding 80 billion yuan last year [1] - In Q1, the production of alumina was 380,600 tons (up 5.1%), electrolytic aluminum was 722,000 tons (up 21.2%), and aluminum alloy was 467,600 tons (up 34.8%), generating a value of 22.485 billion yuan (up 34.8%) [1] - The region is developing a complete industrial chain for green aluminum, including processes from electrolytic aluminum to deep processing and recycling [2] Group 2: Industrial Development Initiatives - The establishment of the Yunnan Green Aluminum Innovation Industrial Park is facilitating the production of aluminum alloy rods and other products, enhancing local industrial capabilities [2] - Wenshan is implementing a "chain master" enterprise model to promote local processing and manufacturing, with 21 aluminum-related projects introduced in the region [2] - The local government is committed to creating a "China Green Aluminum Valley" and integrating green electricity with advanced manufacturing [2][3] Group 3: New Energy Equipment Manufacturing - A recent agreement for an intelligent photovoltaic component manufacturing project marks a significant step in building the new energy equipment manufacturing industry chain in Wenshan [3] - The local government is enhancing the industrial economic environment by providing support and services to enterprises, focusing on key industries such as green aluminum and biopharmaceuticals [3][4] Group 4: Economic Support Measures - Wenshan is aiming for a target of 100 billion yuan in green aluminum output value for the year, with ongoing projects like the Funing Jinzhou New Materials project [4] - The government is implementing measures to improve service efficiency for enterprises, including regular consultations and support for project construction [4]
几内亚铝土矿供应扰动再起,氧化铝期货多个合约一度涨停!
news flash· 2025-05-16 14:04
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent supply disruptions in Guinea's bauxite mining, leading to a significant spike in alumina futures prices, with multiple contracts hitting the limit up [1] - Guinea's government has revoked mining licenses for several mines, including the Axis mine, which has a production capacity of approximately 40 million tons per year, causing immediate operational halts [1] - Despite the recent disruptions, Guinea's bauxite production was expected to increase by over 40 million tons this year, contributing to an overall surplus in bauxite supply [2] Group 2 - The alumina prices have been on a strong rebound, with the current market conditions shifting from oversupply to a tightening supply scenario due to maintenance and production cuts [1] - The price of Guinea's mainstream bauxite has dropped from $110 per ton at the beginning of the year to $70 per ton, indicating a significant decline prior to the recent government actions [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the government's actions raises concerns about the impact on new alumina production capacity and the resumption of previously curtailed production [2]
【期货热点追踪】 51张矿权证一夜归零,几内亚无偿收回矿业许可证!全球铝土矿市场会缺货吗?
news flash· 2025-05-16 13:52
期货热点追踪 51张矿权证一夜归零,几内亚无偿收回矿业许可证!全球铝土矿市场会缺货吗? 相关链接 ...
神火股份(000933) - 000933神火股份投资者关系管理信息20250516
2025-05-16 09:18
证券代码:000933 证券简称:神火股份 河南神火煤电股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号:2025-002 投资者 关系活 动类别 √特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □电话会议 □其他: (请文字说明其他活动内容) 参与单 位名称 及人员 姓名 东方财富:王涛 东方财富:魏河城 景林资产:周茜 时间 2025 年 5 月 16 日 9:00-11:00 地点 河南神火煤电股份有限公司本部七楼第二会议室 公司接 待人员 姓名 董事会秘书:李元勋 证券事务代表:肖雷 投资者 关系活 动主要 内容介 绍 1.是否有氧化铝板块布局的考虑,如何应对相关成本波动的风险? 答:在当前市场情况下,电解铝供给侧结构性改革对电解铝行业产能有了"天 花板"的限制,而氧化铝供应仍在持续增加;氧化铝的核心问题在于铝土矿 资源,公司如果布局氧化铝,将从矿石端进行综合研判,有较为合适的铝土 矿资源也可以考虑。公司目前通过合资持有部分氧化铝权益产能,今后将通 过及时把握供需变动、稳定供应渠道、适时开展战略采购等途径降低成本波 动风险。 2.公司对压降负债的规划。 答:202 ...