2025年07月06日 证券研究报告 | 长沙银行（601577.SH） 估值洼地+高增长潜力 公司研究 · 公司快评 银行业 · 城商行 投资评级：优于大市（维持） | 证券分析师：田维韦 | 证券分析师：王剑 | | --- | --- | | 021-60875161 | 021-60875165 | | tianweiwei@guosen.com.cn | wangjian@guosen.com.cn | | S0980520030002 | S0980518070002 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø 公司约0.6xPB估值提供了足够的安全边际，目前低估值反映的市场对其资产质量的担忧可能过度。 • 一是，公司零售贷款占比处在上市城商行较高水平，零售不良压力较大是现实困境，但市场担忧可能过度。零售贷款中消费贷和个人经营贷不良暴露延续是行业共性，公司 积极应对，加大零售不良确认处置，同时积极调整零售信贷投放，零售存量不良出清只是时间问题。市场对于公司零售信贷不良的过度担忧来源于近年来公司积极开拓县域 市场，认为客群资质下沉后不 ...

酒行业丨市场观察 本周看点： -白酒集体降度，能成为打开新消费的钥匙吗？ -白酒行业新战场：酒桌上的话语权争夺； -高库存叠加禁酒令，即时零售是白酒震荡期的解药吗？ 行业环境 1.白酒集体降度，能成为打开新消费的钥匙吗？ 关键词 ： 白酒降度,年轻消费者,低度酒市场,口感优化,新品研发 概要 ： 2025年上半年，白酒行业持续深度调整，推动酒企加速产品年轻化与低度化布局。五 粮液宣布将推出29度五粮液，泸州老窖和洋河也纷纷研发低度新品，迎合"90后""00后"消费群 体偏好。业内指出，低度酒并非为降低成本，而是通过更复杂工艺满足新一代消费者对口感、 健康和饮用体验的需求。尽管白酒整体市场增长放缓，低度酒仍保持增长态势，2025年市场规 模预计达740亿元。专家认为，低度化有助于打破传统消费圈层，拓展自饮、聚会等新场景， 成为酒企新增量来源。但改变消费习惯仍需长期市场培育。 2.白酒行业新战场：酒桌上的话语权争夺 关键词 ： 白酒行业,年轻消费,低度酒,即时零售,价格倒挂 概要 ： 白酒行业已进入存量竞争时代，面临政策调整、消费转型和存量竞争叠加的深度调整 期。年轻消费群体逐渐成为主力，偏好低度、果味、易入口酒 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses Alibaba's strategy to invest 50 billion yuan in consumer and merchant subsidies through Taobao Flash Sale over the next 12 months, aiming to stimulate consumption and enhance merchant growth [1][2][12] - It highlights the importance of instant retail as a potential "third pole" in the retail landscape, alongside offline retail and centralized e-commerce platforms [4][6] - The article emphasizes that consumer behavior is evolving, with a focus on emotional and experiential aspects of consumption, indicating a shift towards service-oriented consumption [12] Group 1: Investment and Strategy - Taobao Flash Sale will provide 50 billion yuan in subsidies to consumers and merchants within 12 months, indicating a significant commitment to boosting the e-commerce sector [1][9] - The initiative has already shown promising results, with over 60 million orders placed within two months of launch, demonstrating strong consumer engagement [1][6] - The focus on both consumer and merchant subsidies suggests a balanced approach to stimulate demand while supporting merchant profitability [2][9] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Instant retail is positioned as a crucial growth area for Alibaba, with the potential to redefine the retail landscape by addressing unmet consumer needs [4][6] - The article notes that the current market is not yet saturated, unlike the logistics industry, indicating ample opportunities for innovation and differentiation [2][3] - The evolving consumer landscape, characterized by fluidity in purchasing behavior and preferences, necessitates a more integrated approach to service and product offerings [11][12] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly seeking the "optimal solution" in their purchasing decisions, which encompasses not just price but also service quality and product availability [5][8] - The article points out that the overlap of users across different platforms indicates a need for e-commerce platforms to enhance their value propositions to retain customers [5][8] - The shift towards service-oriented consumption reflects changing consumer priorities, with a growing emphasis on experiences rather than just physical goods [12]

Core Viewpoint - Singapore's retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 1.4% and a month-on-month increase of 1.0% in May, marking one of the strongest monthly performances of the year, driven primarily by a rebound in automobile sales, although non-automotive retail remains weak [1][2]. Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - The increase in retail sales was largely attributed to a significant rebound in automobile sales, which rose by 10.4% year-on-year, supported by an increase in the Certificate of Entitlement (COE) quota [1]. - Excluding automobiles, retail sales remained flat year-on-year in May, marking the lowest level since February, with a growth of only 0.8% in April [1]. - Non-essential consumer sectors are still experiencing declines, with clothing and footwear sales down 5.3% year-on-year, and department store sales down 3.9% [1]. Group 2: Monthly and Yearly Trends - The month-on-month growth of 1.0% in May was almost entirely driven by automobile sales; without this segment, overall retail sales would have declined by 0.6% [2]. - Year-to-date retail sales growth for the first five months of 2025 is at 1.0%, lower than the growth rates of 1.4% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2023, indicating a sluggish retail environment [2]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Factors - The employment market is under pressure, with only 2,400 net new jobs added in Q1 2025, significantly lower than the 7,700 jobs added in Q4 2024, and the unemployment rate increased from 1.9% to 2.1% [2][3]. - Consumer confidence is further impacted by a decrease in companies planning to raise wages, dropping to 21.2% from 21.7% [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The retail sector is expected to face growth challenges in the second half of the year, despite potential short-term boosts from government-issued vouchers aimed at stimulating domestic demand [3]. - Global policy risks, particularly the potential for unilateral tariffs from the U.S. on Singapore, could further strain the retail environment and consumer confidence [3].

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam's retail sales growth rate for June is reported at 8.3%, a decrease from the previous value of 10.20% [1] Group 1 - The retail sales growth rate indicates a slowdown in consumer spending in Vietnam [1] - The previous year's growth rate was significantly higher at 10.20%, suggesting a decline in retail performance [1]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 展望 6 月及二季度，经济或呈现低波运行特征。 首先，从 GDP 数据来看，受益于国内的两新政策、出口 的韧性，生产端保持较快增长。预计 2 季度全部工业生产增速 5.9% 左右，预计 2 季度 GDP 增速在 5.3% 左右，接近 1 季度的 5.4% 。其次，受益于政府债发行的前值，社融增速稳中有升，预计 6 月末抬升至 8.8% 左右。再次，市场较为关注的出口数据，增速或边际放缓，但仍有韧性，预计 6 月出口同比在 3.5% 左右。 后续来看，关注重心在可能带来经济走势出现变化的几个方向。包括美国与各国的关税谈判进展、地产的 库存去化、"反内卷"在供给端的约束等。 报告摘要 一、 GDP ：预计 2 季度 GDP 增速在 5.3% 左右。 主要原因来看： 1 ）受益于设备更新、以旧换新、出口韧性，工业生产在 2 季度维持偏强态势。预计 2 季 度全部工业（规上 + 规下）增速在 5.9% 左右。 2 ）受益于以旧换新，零售环节增速继续回升，预计批发 零售业 ...

Core Insights - Vietnam's retail sales in June increased by 8.3% year-on-year, a decrease from the previous value of 10.2% [1] Group 1 - The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales indicates a slowdown in consumer spending compared to the previous month [1] - The current growth rate of 8.3% reflects ongoing economic conditions and consumer confidence in Vietnam [1] - The decline from 10.2% to 8.3% suggests potential challenges in the retail sector that may need to be addressed [1]

Core Insights - The ice cream market in China is experiencing a surge in sales due to high temperatures, with major brands competing for market share [2][3] - Magnum Ice Cream Company, previously part of Unilever, has officially separated and is preparing for an IPO in Amsterdam by Q4 2025, indicating a significant shift in the global ice cream landscape [5][7] - The Chinese ice cream market is projected to reach a scale of 183.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a steady growth forecast in the coming years [13] Company Developments - Unilever's ice cream business, which includes brands like Magnum and Cornetto, has been a dominant player, holding approximately 20% of the global market share [3][5] - The establishment of Magnum Ice Cream Company was announced in March 2023, marking a strategic move to enhance brand identity and operational focus [5][8] - The company aims to leverage the summer sales season to establish a strong market presence as an independent entity [7][13] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with established brands like Mengniu and Yili also vying for market share, particularly in the high-margin ice cream segment [15] - New entrants and innovative products are emerging, with over 41,200 ice cream-related companies registered in China as of May 2023, indicating a rapidly evolving market [15][17] - The rise of online sales channels and instant retail is reshaping consumer purchasing behavior, with a notable increase in demand for ice cream products [25][21] Consumer Trends - The ice cream market is diversifying, with brands exploring new consumption scenarios beyond traditional summer treats, such as workplace snacks and social gatherings [25][19] - The popularity of unique and visually appealing products, like "chicken leg ice cream," reflects changing consumer preferences, although many novelty items struggle with repeat purchases [18][19] - The competitive edge is shifting towards brands that can effectively integrate into various lifestyle contexts, suggesting a need for innovative marketing strategies [25][21]

Core Insights - The "Louis Vuitton" giant ship, known as "Louis," has become a popular attraction in Shanghai's Nanjing West Road, marking a significant milestone in the area's transformation into a "global top retail destination" [1][2] - The ship's design is inspired by Louis Vuitton's historical legacy of creating hard cases for transoceanic journeys, symbolizing Shanghai's port culture [1] - The presence of "Louis" has significantly increased foot traffic in the area, benefiting nearby businesses such as Starbucks, which has seen long queues due to the influx of visitors [1] Company and Industry Developments - Swire Properties is committed to enhancing the overall community of the Nanjing West Road area by integrating international retail concepts with local cultural elements [2] - Over the past few years, Swire Properties has collaborated closely with the Jing'an District government and various partners to upgrade the retail ecosystem of the Nanjing West Road area [2] - The Zhangyuan project on Nanjing West Road currently has only one-third of its total area open, with the remaining two-thirds set to open in phases starting mid-next year [2] - By the end of next year, the project will connect three underground subway lines, further elevating the area's commercial potential [2] - Swire Properties anticipates that Nanjing West Road will attract more renowned international and domestic brands, solidifying its status as a global consumption hotspot [2]

Core Viewpoint - The decline of Renrenle, the first private supermarket listed in China, leading to its delisting, reflects the challenges faced by traditional retail in the face of e-commerce competition and changing consumer habits [1][12]. Financial Performance - Renrenle was listed on January 13, 2010, with an initial stock price of 26.98 yuan per share, reaching a peak market capitalization of approximately 136.68 billion yuan shortly after [2]. - By July 3, 2025, Renrenle's stock price had fallen to 0.36 yuan per share, resulting in a total market capitalization of about 1.58 million yuan [2]. - The company reported a net asset of -4.04 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024, continuing a trend of negative net profits since its third year of listing [4][6]. Operational Challenges - Renrenle faced significant operational challenges, including rising store operating costs, intense competition from online retailers, and a shift in consumer shopping habits [1][4]. - The company has experienced net losses in nine out of its fifteen years since going public, with attempts at transformation and new business ventures yielding little success [1][4]. Store Management and Strategy - Renrenle's store count peaked at 149 in 2019 but has since declined, with the company closing 45 stores and opening only one new store by the end of 2024 [11]. - The company has attempted to mitigate losses through asset sales and restructuring, including the divestment of subsidiaries and renegotiation of debts with suppliers [6][12]. Market Context - The retail sector has seen a significant number of companies delist, with 17 companies exiting the A-share market in 2024 alone, highlighting the broader challenges within the industry [12][13]. - Analysts attribute Renrenle's struggles to poor strategic decisions, including overexpansion and failure to adapt to e-commerce trends, which ultimately led to its loss of competitive advantage [12][13].