6月1日那个深夜，美国贸易代表办公室悄悄发了个通告，对华关税豁免又延长了。 搞笑的是，就在两天前，特朗普还在推特上跟中国叫板呢。连他的财长都承认了，谈判压根就卡住了，得两国老大亲自出马。 这家伙怎么变脸比翻书还快？美国这是咋了？ 作者 辉 说变脸就变脸，特朗普这48小时的操作把全世界都看懵了。 前两天还在推特上咆哮，说中国工厂要倒闭了，自己"仁慈地"拯救了危机。那副得意洋洋的样子，就像个刚刚赢了弹珠游戏的小孩子。哪知道转眼间，美国 贸易代表办公室就偷偷摸摸延长了对华关税豁免。这操作简直比川剧变脸还要神速，连观众都来不及反应。 更让人哭笑不得的是，连他自己的财政部长贝森特都忍不住吐槽，中美贸易谈判"有点停滞"，得麻烦两国元首亲自下场才能解决。这话听起来就像是在 说："老板，我们这边实在搞不定了，得您亲自出马。"一个堂堂财政部长说出这种话，多少有些无奈的味道。 有美国议员都忍不住吐槽："没人知道他五天后的规定是啥样。"这话说得太精准了。政策朝令夕改，从125%改成145%，又悄悄延长豁免，这哪里是什么战 略布局，简直就是在瞎折腾。就像一个赌徒，一会儿all in，一会儿又想着保本离场，完全没有章法可言。 这种戏剧 ...

Group 1 - The core idea is that the U.S. is exploring the issuance of stablecoins as a means to redefine and support U.S. Treasury bonds amidst a growing debt crisis and lack of buyers [2][3][9] - The current U.S. national debt stands at $36.8 trillion, with annual interest payments reaching $1.5 trillion, which constitutes 30% of federal revenue [2] - The U.S. is facing a significant challenge as the largest currency supplier and the largest goods supplier are in conflict, leading to a decrease in the dollar's commodity backing [3][5] Group 2 - The potential strategy of using digital currency as a new anchor for U.S. Treasury bonds could allow for tax reductions without Federal Reserve interference, benefiting the current administration [5] - The issuance of stablecoins could increase demand for U.S. Treasury bonds by integrating them into global economies, thus expanding market space and revenue from seigniorage [5][9] - The U.S. is under pressure as countries lose confidence in U.S. debt, with Japan recently selling off U.S. bonds and using them as leverage in trade negotiations [9] Group 3 - The proposed issuance of century bonds, which would require other countries to buy long-term, no-interest U.S. bonds, is seen as a way to manipulate foreign nations into financing U.S. debt [7][9] - The current administration's approach to tariffs and trade is viewed as a means to fill budget gaps, with a projected fiscal deficit of $1.833 trillion for 2024 [7] - The urgency of addressing the $36.8 trillion debt is emphasized, as failure to do so could lead to severe economic consequences in the near future [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. has maintained a trade deficit, importing more than it exports, leading to a scarcity of dollars in the market [2] - The establishment of the Bretton Woods system solidified the dollar's role as the world's primary currency, allowing the U.S. to easily import goods with minimal limits on dollar issuance [4] - Many countries recognize that the U.S. strategy of printing money for goods resembles a Ponzi scheme, yet they continue to accept this reality due to U.S. military strength [6] Group 2 - The military might of the U.S. is a key factor in the global acceptance of the dollar, with the U.S. maintaining military bases worldwide to uphold its hegemony [6] - If Russia and China were to align their interests, the dominance of the dollar could be threatened, although China has not fully prepared for this shift [8] - The U.S. will not allow any European power to rise against it, maintaining military presence in Japan and South Korea despite their economic challenges [8] Group 3 - The era of U.S. hegemony is nearing its end, with the dollar's dominance facing significant challenges [10] - A reduction in dollar reserves and U.S. Treasury holdings by China could trigger the decline of dollar hegemony [10] - Holding gold has become a common risk-averse strategy as the dollar struggles to maintain its status as a global currency [10]

Core Viewpoint - Florida has taken a significant step towards de-dollarization by recognizing gold and silver coins with purity over 99.5% and 99.9% as legal tender, exempting them from sales tax, marking a shift in the financial landscape within the U.S. [1][4] Group 1: Legislative Actions - Florida's legislation aims to combat the risks associated with the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, with state representative Doug Bankson highlighting that the dollar's purchasing power has decreased by over 90% since the U.S. abandoned the gold standard in 1971 [3][4] - Other states, including Utah, Texas, Tennessee, and Arkansas, have also enacted similar laws recognizing gold and silver as legal tender, indicating a growing trend across the U.S. [4] Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. dollar has faced significant depreciation, with the dollar index dropping over 10% this year, contributing to Florida's move towards de-dollarization [6] - The U.S. national debt has reached approximately $37 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of the dollar as a global currency and the potential for a loss of confidence in its value [6][9] Group 3: Global Trends - There is a global shift towards de-dollarization, with BRICS nations promoting local currency settlements and a decline in reliance on the dollar for oil transactions in the Middle East [9] - The rise of stablecoins and the exploration of a digital dollar by the Federal Reserve reflect the U.S.'s attempts to adapt to changing financial dynamics and maintain its currency's relevance [9]

美国对EDA和航发技术的禁售看似凶狠，实则暴露了底牌已尽的窘境。中国罕见地保持沉默，却在关 键时刻亮出为C919量身定制的新型航发，推力达11吨，直接打脸美国的封锁。这种沉稳的反击背后， 是中国制造业转型成功的底气。 特朗普的关税战让美国海关收入暴涨，每月多收数百亿美元，但企业利润却暴跌千亿，一季度GDP负增 长。中国制造业PMI虽然短暂跌破50，但整体经济仍保持5%以上的增速，高端制造业投资活跃。美国 的打压反而加速了中国科技自主的步伐。 中国近期动作频频：与拉美国家举办北京峰会，同东盟、海合会举行首届峰会，筹备中非和中亚峰会， 地缘影响力快速扩张。更关键的是两记重拳——四月抛售超百亿美债导致收益率飙升，香港议会火速通 过全球首个与法币1:1挂钩的稳定币法案。这直接打断了美国通过稳定币重构美元体系的算盘。 美国越打越急，中国越打越稳。双方最后的对决很可能避开热战，在金融战场一决高下。中国正在积蓄 力量，等待时机对美元霸权发起总攻。香港稳定币的突破性立法，就是这场货币战争的第一声炮响。 美元霸权的根基正在动摇。美国滥用金融制裁，冻结他国外汇储备，让全世界看清了美元体系的政治风 险。俄乌冲突后，多国加速去美元化 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the contradictory nature of U.S. trade policy, where the U.S. extends tariff exemptions for certain Chinese products while simultaneously discussing tax increases [1][2] - This behavior is not new and has been observed across multiple U.S. administrations, indicating a need to balance domestic political pressures with economic realities [2] - The article suggests that the decline of dollar hegemony is a symptom of these contradictions in trade policy [2] Group 2 - A new global economic landscape is emerging, characterized by a significant slowdown in GDP growth, with global GDP growth dropping below 2% and developed European countries around 1% [2] - The focus on domestic demand and consumption in economic reports reflects a necessary shift in the global growth model, emphasizing that investment can also drive demand [3] Group 3 - Current market conditions are described as a "slow bull market," where funds are taking time to find opportunities, leading to a cautious approach among investors [3] - Retail investors are warned against two common mistakes: losing patience and making erratic trades or holding onto poorly performing stocks [3] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding trading behavior data, as it reveals the true market dynamics beyond mere price movements [5][7] - It points out that having institutional ownership does not guarantee safety; the key is whether institutions are actively trading [7][11] Group 5 - The changing global economic landscape is reshaping the logic of A-shares, necessitating that ordinary investors utilize professional tools to discern market realities [11] - The article concludes that opportunities exist in the market, but the ability to identify them is crucial [11]

如果给你1元人民币，或者给你价值1元的虚拟货币，你怎么选？ 但是，这个问题如果放在在非洲，放在东南亚或者南美、中东，答案可能正好反过来，人们宁愿要虚拟币，也不想拿着同等价值的法定货币。 01 最穷的大陆，爱上虚拟币 非洲的贫穷、落后的形象早已深入人心，大家一想到非洲人，脑子里浮出的画面都是，骨瘦如柴的难民，可怜兮兮拿着几张皱巴巴的纸币买东西。 说出来你可能不信，人家现在都用线上支付。在我们还停留于刻板印象时，非洲已经成为数字金融发展最快、虚拟货币应用最广的地区。 2023年，非洲数字支付的注册账户数达到了8.56亿个，占全球注册账户的五成，并贡献了全球注册账户总增长的70%以上。在肯尼亚，使用数字支付的成 年人口比例达到75.8%，南非则是70.5%，加纳是63%，加蓬是62.3%，什么概念呢？这些位于穷苦"黑非洲"的国家，数字支付的普及度甚至吊打很多发达 国家，比方说，普及率仅有42%的德国。 可能多数中国人都会选自己家的法定货币，毕竟法币好流通，币值也稳定，至于虚拟货币嘛，价格一会儿上天一会儿暴跌，水太深，不够稳。 所以，实际情况是，你在非洲能到处看见我们熟悉的收款码，还有扫码收银机。 更离谱的点在于，连 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the strategic leverage China holds over the U.S. in the ongoing trade negotiations, particularly through its control of rare earth materials, which are critical for various industries, including technology and defense [1][3][6] - The U.S. is facing significant pressure as over 200 American companies have applied for tariff exemptions, indicating the adverse impact of tariffs on domestic industries [4][6] - The current situation is characterized by a direct exchange of bargaining chips, with China's rare earth resources corresponding to U.S. demands for tariff cancellations and the lifting of technology bans [6][9] Group 2 - The article highlights the irony of the U.S. administration's position, as it attempts to maintain a hardline stance on tariffs while simultaneously needing China's rare earth supplies [4][6] - China's dominance in the rare earth market, accounting for 90% of global production of neodymium-iron-boron magnets, is forcing U.S. companies to rethink their supply chains [6][9] - The ongoing negotiations are framed as a critical moment for both nations, with the potential for a breakdown in talks looming despite a temporary agreement on tariffs [9]

以下文章来源于沧海一土狗 ，作者沧海一土狗 沧海一土狗 . 一名固定收益投资经理关于投资和研究的碎碎念 文章来源于：沧海一土狗 美元和美债的关系，我认为是这样的： 美元是超主权货币，美债是主权债务 。因此，美元是全世界的美元，美债是美国政府的债务。 最近，美国最高法院再一次确认了美联储的独立地位： 当地时间5月22日，美国最高法院裁定，维持对国家劳工关系委员会和功绩制度保护委员会两名董事会成员解雇的决定，同时强调，不同意上述机构提出的论点， 即上诉（legal challenges） "必然涉及对美联储理事会成员或联邦公开市场委员会其他成员因故免职保护的合法性"。 但是，特朗普政府和美联储的冲突依旧存在， 特朗普政府需要主权货币政策 ，需要把美元变成一种主权货币，但是，美元这个坑被美联储提前"占领"了，美元是 一种超主权货币。 也就是说，站在特朗普政府的角度来看， 美元被鸠占鹊巢了 。 如上图所示，对正常主权国家而言， 汇率是一项重要的债务重整手段 。临时性的本币贬值，相当于一次债务重整， 暂缓支付了一部分利息和本金 ，等债务人渡 过难关，本币重新升值，利息和本金照常支付。 显而易见，为了保障美元的超主权货币 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights China's dominance in the global shipbuilding industry, achieving a 74.7% share of new ship orders in 2024, effectively ending South Korea's 20-year reign as the leader in this sector [1][4]. Group 1: Historical Context - The shipbuilding industry has historically seen shifts in dominance among major nations, with the UK, Japan, and South Korea each holding the crown at different times [1][3]. - In 2000, South Korea surpassed Japan with a 40% market share, while China held only 4% at that time [3]. Group 2: Recent Developments - By 2024, China led in three key metrics: completion volume (55.1%), order backlog (61.4%), and new orders (74.7%), while South Korea's shares were significantly lower at 25.6%, 24.1%, and 17% respectively [4]. - China's new orders reached 87.11 million deadweight tons (DWT), a 51.7% year-on-year increase, while South Korea's new orders were only 10.98 million compensated gross tons (CGT) [4]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - China's shipbuilding success is attributed to its scale, technology, and integrated supply chain, allowing for greater efficiency compared to South Korea's fragmented approach [6][7]. - The China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) has consolidated its shipyards to create a closed-loop system from design to construction, enhancing operational efficiency [6]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - China has made significant strides in high-end ship types, including LNG carriers, where it captured 48% of the global orders in 2024, closely trailing South Korea's 50% [8]. - The successful delivery of China's first self-developed large cruise ship, "Aida Magic City," demonstrates a shift from low-end manufacturing to high-end intelligent manufacturing [8]. Group 5: Green Technology Leadership - China leads in green shipbuilding, with green vessel orders rising from 8.2% in 2016 to 41% in 2024, capturing over 70% of global green ship orders [8][9]. - Innovations include the world's first LNG-powered ultra-large crude carrier and the largest dual-fuel powered car carrier, showcasing China's advancements in green technology [9][11].