美国财长贝森特：关税与预算并不是彼此孤立的。 到2028年，美国债务与GDP的比率将趋于稳定。 对赤字鹰派感到同情。 相信2025年赤字规模将低于之前一年。 ...

美国财长贝森特：我们正从关税收入中获得大量收入，今年联邦预算赤字将比去年更少。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. International Trade Court has ruled that Trump's tariff policy announced on April 2 is invalid, stating that tariff regulation is a power reserved for Congress, not the President [3][6] - The White House has responded by claiming that the judges are unauthorized to comment on Trump's tariff policy, indicating that Trump will likely continue to push for tariffs, potentially escalating the legal battle to the Supreme Court or Congress [5][6] - This ruling marks the first significant legal challenge to Trump's policies, reflecting a strong signal of opposition within the U.S. legal system [6] Group 2 - Elon Musk has officially distanced himself from the Trump administration by resigning from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), indicating a shift in his stance towards Trump [8] - Musk has previously criticized Trump, particularly regarding the administration's fiscal budget, which he believes contradicts the goals of DOGE [8] - The decline in Tesla's stock price has intensified Musk's feelings of discontent towards Trump's policies [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Jiangsu Provincial People's Congress is reviewing the performance of the fiscal science and technology special funds for 2024, highlighting both progress and areas needing improvement in funding allocation and effectiveness [1][2]. Funding Allocation and Performance - Jiangsu's fiscal science and technology special funds have seen increased investment, with a notable rise in basic research funding from 3.077 billion yuan in 2022 to 6.724 billion yuan in 2024, marking a doubling in short-term investment [2][3]. - The basic research funding proportion in Jiangsu is 4.94%, significantly lower than Shanghai's 10.56%, despite similar total R&D expenditures [2]. Evaluation and Management - The provincial government is developing a performance evaluation system for laboratories, focusing on macro, meso, and micro indicators to assess the effectiveness of funding and research outcomes [3]. - A comprehensive performance management system is being implemented to address issues such as slow project progress and improper fund usage, with a focus on contract management and monitoring of project milestones [4][5]. Audit Findings and Rectification - Recent audits have identified 23 areas for improvement in the management and use of science and technology special funds, leading to the establishment of a task list for rectification [7][8]. - All identified issues have been addressed as of June 30, 2023, resulting in optimized funding allocation and improved project management processes [8].

据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月28日，美国政府效率部负责人埃隆·马斯克在其社交媒体平台X 上发文表示，在他作为特别政府雇员的任期即将结束之际，他想感谢美国总统特朗普给予的 减少政府浪费性支出的机会。 据央视新闻援引美国《华盛顿邮报》当地时间27日报道，马斯克在接受采访时表示，政府效 率部成为了华盛顿的"替罪羊"。当地时间5月27日，马斯克返回美国太空探索技术公司 （SpaceX），观摩"星舰"试飞。在接受采访时，他表示，削减联邦政府规模的难度远超预 期，并对他所领导的政府效率部遭受严厉批评深感遗憾。在谈到总统特朗普的税收与支出法 案时，马斯克称该法案削弱了他在削减美国预算赤字方面所做的努力。 由于一季度业绩不佳，特斯拉在本次财报中宣布撤回于2024年底发布的全年增长指引。 本期编辑 金珊 据新华社此前消息，4月22日，马斯克在特斯拉财报电话会议上表示，从5月开始，他将"大 幅"减少管理政府效率部的时间，"将把更多时间投入到特斯拉"。 同日，特斯拉公布了2025财年第一季度业绩报告。尽管华尔街投行此前已普遍下调了对该季 度财报的预期，但最终公布的业绩数据仍低于市场的一致预期。 财报显示，特斯拉一季度收入193.4 ...

Group 1 - The UK job market is slowing down, particularly impacting recruitment in the education and healthcare sectors due to government spending cuts, with signs of layoffs in the public sector [1] - Following the recent increase in minimum wage and payroll taxes, business confidence has dropped to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic, with the net balance of employers expecting to increase staff in the private sector being the smallest in the survey's 11-year history [2][3] - In the public sector, the number of employers planning layoffs exceeds those planning to hire, with a net balance of -4%, driven mainly by large enterprises, particularly in the retail sector, where one-third of retailers expect to lay off staff in the next three months [3] Group 2 - The education sector, particularly non-compulsory education (including universities and further education colleges), has the highest proportion of employers planning layoffs, with about one-quarter of primary and early years education institutions reducing staff [5] - The healthcare sector is also experiencing significant layoffs, with one-fifth of employers implementing cuts, and NHS Providers warning that over one-third of trusts have begun reducing clinical positions to balance budgets [5] - Teacher unions have raised concerns that many school principals are cutting staff due to budget pressures and the requirement to fund salary increases from existing budgets, leading to lower recruitment levels compared to previous years [6]

晨会纪要 2025 年 5 月 29 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | | | | 2025/5/29 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 工业硅 | 氧化铝 | 燃油 | | | | 多晶硅 | 沪深300股指期货 | 铝 | | | | 橡胶 | 原油 | 硅铁 | | | | 沥青 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | | 玻璃 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | | 纯碱 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 二债 | | | | | 锰硅 | 十债 | | | | | 红枣 | 五债 | | | | | 焦炭 | 三十债 | | | | | 生猪 | 尿素 | | | | | 焦煤 | 乙二醇 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shaanxi Provincial Finance Department is implementing strict controls on official overseas travel and expenses to align with the government's directive for frugality, aiming to enhance efficiency and prioritize essential diplomatic activities [1][2]. Group 1: Budget Management - In 2024, the provincial finance department plans to reduce the number of official overseas trips by 19 batches and the number of countries visited by 33 [1]. - The province is adopting zero-based budgeting for overseas travel expenses, only allocating budgets for departments with group travel tasks, while reserving some funds for priority national diplomatic needs [1][2]. - The finance department will dynamically adjust the budget based on actual travel plans and expenditures to ensure efficient use of funds [2]. Group 2: Control Measures - The total budget for overseas travel expenses is strictly controlled and cannot be exceeded, with any mid-year increases requiring rigorous approval processes [2]. - Departments that do not have group travel tasks will not receive any budget allocation for overseas travel [1][2]. - For departments facing budget shortfalls for necessary travel, the finance department will allow adjustments from other departmental balances or future year allocations [2].

Group 1 - The strategy for low to medium risk asset allocation includes risk parity and risk budgeting models, where risk parity allocates equal risk weights across different assets, while risk budgeting allows investors to set asset risk weights based on their risk preferences [1] - The correlation between major asset classes such as equities (A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks), bonds, and commodities (precious metals, energy, chemicals) is relatively low, making it suitable to construct portfolios using corresponding ETFs [1] - The long-term correlation between bonds and equities or commodities ranges from 0 to -30%, indicating a "stock-bond seesaw" effect due to the counter-cyclical nature of interest rates affecting bond yields, while equities and commodities reflect the health or expectations of the real economy [1] Group 2 - A simple construction method for the model involves selecting broad-based indices for equities such as CSI 300 ETF, CSI 500 ETF, ChiNext ETF, and National 2000 ETF, while the bond portion can include government bond ETFs, policy financial bond ETFs, and local government bond ETFs [2] - For the commodity portion, gold ETFs and commodity futures ETFs can be included, with advanced construction methods allowing for a core-satellite approach or sector rotation strategy for equities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The significant gap between the current Brent crude oil price of around $65 and the $96 needed by Saudi Arabia to balance its budget is leading to a decline in the Saudi stock market, making it the worst-performing globally [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Tadawul All Share Index in Saudi Arabia has dropped 6.4% since May, marking the worst performance among 92 indices tracked by Bloomberg and experiencing its longest four-month losing streak since 2014 [1][3]. - The weak oil prices are primarily responsible for the negative sentiment in the Saudi stock market, with crude oil prices hitting a four-year low in early April due to trade tensions and increased supply from OPEC+ members [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Pressure - Saudi Arabia's budget deficit in the first quarter reached its highest level since the end of 2021, raising concerns about the impact of declining oil revenues on the government's transformation plans [3]. - According to Bloomberg economist Ziad Daoud, the Saudi government requires a crude oil price of $96 to balance its budget, which rises to $113 when including domestic spending from the sovereign wealth fund, both figures being the highest since the launch of the "Vision 2030" plan in 2016 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs warned that Saudi Arabia's budget deficit could swell to $67 billion this year, potentially forcing the government to increase borrowing and cut back on economic transformation plans [3]. - Fiera Capital's fund manager Dominic Bokor-Ingram noted that ambitious mega-projects may face delays due to fiscal constraints, with Saudi Arabia's oil breakeven level being higher than that of regional peers [3]. - Compounding the situation, OPEC+ may discuss increasing production, which could further exacerbate concerns about oversupply and put additional pressure on oil prices [4].