子行业评级 2025 年 06 月 24 日 行业日报 中性/维持 房地产 房地产 太平洋房地产日报（20250624）：北京土拍收金 20.8 亿元 (20%) (6%) 8% 22% 36% 50% 24/6/6 24/8/17 24/10/28 25/1/8 25/3/21 房地产 沪深300 | 房 地 产 开 发 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 和运营 | | | 房地产服务 | 无评级 | 推荐公司及评级 相关研究报告 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250623）：杭 州推出住房公积金直付购房首付款 业务>>--2025/6/23 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250620）：上 海 2025 年 五 批 次 土 拍 收 官 >>-- 2025/6/20 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250619）：西 安出台楼市新政>>--2025/6/19 证券分析师：徐超 电话：18311057693 E-MAIL：xuchao@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190521050001 证券分析师：戴梓涵 电话：18217681683 E-MAIL：daizh@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号 ...

欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩：如果我们观察到下行风险出现实质性变化，可能需要采取货币政策应对措 施。 ...

Group 1 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Ramsden, has noted that accumulating evidence of a substantial loosening in the labor market has influenced his perspective [1] - Ramsden is now placing greater emphasis on the medium-term risks of declining inflation [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of England member Greene indicates that the UK faces risks of economic growth downturn while inflation presents upward risks [1] - UK inflation appears to be in a "plateau" phase rather than a "hump" phase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Green, believes that risks are still two-sided, but they lean towards downside risks for economic growth, while there are also upside risks for inflation [1] Economic Growth Risks - Green emphasizes that the risks to economic growth are skewed downwards, indicating potential challenges for the economy [1] Inflation Risks - There are concerns regarding upward risks to inflation, suggesting that inflationary pressures may persist or increase [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the impressive investment performance of Christian Flanders, who achieved a 433% return in a U.S. investment competition, showcasing the application of economic principles and financial logic in trading [2] Group 1: Investment Strategies - Flanders employs a simplified investment strategy aligned with trend theory, focusing on stocks near historical highs to follow upward market trends and avoid value traps [3] - His approach includes a gradual risk exposure strategy and a reverse Martingale strategy, which adjusts positions based on profit and loss, effectively managing risk while maximizing returns [3] - The success of his phase transition strategy is attributed to a deep understanding of market dynamics, utilizing significant information to capture price gaps and define risk-reward boundaries [4] Group 2: Market Analysis Techniques - Flanders studies the historical performance of leading stocks, creatively applying the efficient market hypothesis to identify recurring price patterns and market behaviors [4] - His analysis of new stock listings and strong market trends aims to exploit market inertia and momentum effects, allowing for the generation of excess returns [4] Group 3: Risk Management - The implementation of down risk protection and trailing stop-loss strategies exemplifies a rigorous application of risk management principles, quantifying and controlling risk within acceptable limits [5] - Flanders utilizes moving averages to track trends and manage risk, helping to capture trend continuations while providing timely exit points during reversals [5] - The article emphasizes the importance of emotional control and discipline in trading, suggesting that successful investors must integrate rational decision-making with scientific methods to navigate market opportunities effectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicate that many members expressed concerns about increasing downside risks to the economy and prices, emphasizing the need for careful examination of each country's trade policies and their developments [1] Group 1 - Many members of the Bank of Japan highlighted the necessity to scrutinize trade policies due to rising economic and price risks [1]

世界500强投资企业 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号: Z0013700 2025/6/19 | | | --- | --- | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | 伦敦金现 伦敦银现 COMEX黄金 COMEX白银 AU2508 AG2508 AU (T+D) AG (T+D) 日期 内外盘金 | | | (美元/盎司) (美元/盎司) (美元/盎司) (美元/盎司) (元/克) (元/千克) (元/克) (元/千克) 银15点价 | | | 2025/6/18 格厨房 3381. 90 37.23 3400. 40 37. 32 785. 08 8864. 00 782. 02 9004. 00 | | | (本表数 2025/6/17 3384. 97 36. 45 3403. 10 36. 54 785. 08 8864. 00 781. 69 8833.00 | 据来源: | | wind) 涨跌幅 -0. 1% 2.1% -0. 1% 2.1% 0. 0% 0. 0% 0.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has set a 12-month target price of HKD 90 for AIA Group (01299) based on an 8x forward new business multiple, implying a 1.6x P/E for 2026, while adjusting the EV/VONB metrics to reflect current 10-year government bond yields in China [1] Group 1: Business Performance and Market Conditions - The impact of a weaker US dollar is primarily seen in translation effects rather than direct business impacts, with the report metrics benefiting from this currency movement [2] - Year-to-date, bond yields in China and the US have remained stable, while Thailand's rates have decreased, affecting business performance differently across regions [2] - AIA's new business value (VNB) is expected to show healthy growth through Q2, supported by recent stock market gains and a stable interest rate environment in China [2] Group 2: Product Strategy and Sales Dynamics - AIA has shifted its sales focus in mainland China from savings products to participating (dividend-paying) products, which typically have lower profit margins but are more resilient to interest rate declines [3] - The year-on-year decline of 7% in mainland China's VONB is partially attributed to a high base effect from strong sales in the first half of 2024, with expectations for easier comparisons in the second half of 2025 [3] - AIA aims to increase the number of agents in new branches to over 1,000 within 1.5-2 years of opening, with plans for further expansion into other cities in the provinces where new branches are established [3] Group 3: Regional Insights and Future Outlook - In Thailand, promotional activities in Q1 have driven significant growth in VONB, but growth is expected to stabilize for the remainder of the fiscal year [4] - Downside risks include a slowdown in mainland China, particularly for high-margin protection products, delays in regulatory approvals for new provinces, and tightening capital controls that could negatively impact sales and policy renewals in Hong Kong [4]

标普：以色列与伊朗冲突的急剧升级增加了下行风险，可能对海湾合作委员会成员国的主权构成压力， 包括阿联酋。 ...