Core Viewpoint - The Thai Baht is expected to perform poorly due to potential economic slowdown and other risks [1] Economic Outlook - Thailand's economic growth may slow down, impacting the performance of the Thai Baht [1] - The Constitutional Court's suspension of the Prime Minister could delay the passage of the national budget, potentially leading to reduced fiscal support and further economic slowdown [1] Currency Forecast - Mitsubishi UFJ forecasts the USD/THB exchange rate to be 33.20 in Q3 and 33.50 in Q4 [1]

Astris Advisory Japan KK策略师指出，在过去五年中，每年7月日元均录得涨幅；过去六个月，由于全 球贸易摩擦以及特朗普呼吁美联储降息等因素导致美元承压，日元升值了9%。自2020年以来，日元每 年7月都上涨，平均兑美元上涨2.8%，成为同期表现最强劲的月份。日本央行的政策变化、8月暑假前 的仓位调整以及出口商将海外收入兑换成日元用于支付股息等多种因素共同推升日元。日元强势的主要 原因可能是美元的全面滑坡。在流动性下降且很多基金经理休假的情况下，减少风险敞口是合理的做 法。没有理由认为今年7月会有所不同，市场可能继续看到日元的强势表现。 高盛：将美联储下次降息预测提前至9月 凯投宏观：贸易紧张局势是亚洲经济体的主要风险 Lombard Odier：预计美元未来12个月持续走软 高盛分析师表示，将美联储下次降息的时间预测从12月提前到9月，反映出对当前经济状况和未来通胀 趋势的新评估。初步证据显示，关税对美国通胀的影响似乎比之前预计的小，而其他导致通胀下降的因 素则更为显著；美联储官员可能也持有相似观点，即关税对物价水平的影响是一次性的。美国人找工作 变得越来越困难，季节性因素以及移民政策的变 ...

金十数据7月1日讯，凯投宏观经济学家在一份报告中表示，特朗普的关税和贸易紧张局势仍然是亚洲的 主要风险。他们补充说，越南将是最脆弱的，因为它最依赖美国的最终需求。他们预计，今年亚洲大部 分地区的GDP增长将略有放缓。在经济增长乏力、通胀率较低的情况下，未来几个月亚洲大部分地区可 能会进一步降息。 特朗普关税、贸易紧张局势对亚洲的主要风险 ...

Group 1 - The global trade environment is significantly impacted by tariff wars, leading to increased import costs and reduced export profits for companies, particularly in manufacturing [3][10] - In 2023, global trade growth dropped to 1.7%, a significant decline compared to previous years, indicating a broader economic slowdown [3] - Chinese exporters faced a 15% profit reduction due to tariffs, while the average price of imported consumer goods rose by 8% [3] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector is particularly hard-hit, with a reported 5% job loss in the industry and over 30,000 small businesses shutting down [3][6] - Consumer prices have increased, with the consumer price index rising by 2.5% in 2023, affecting low-income households the most [6] - The job market is tightening, with a reported 5.8% layoff rate and a significant decrease in new job creation, impacting various sectors including IT and automotive [6][10] Group 3 - Companies are encouraged to adapt by investing in employee training and skill development to remain competitive in a changing economic landscape [8][10] - Financial strategies should focus on long-term stability, with recommendations for low-risk investments such as government bonds and fixed deposits [8] - The government is promoting local consumption and innovation, providing support for small and micro enterprises, which could present new opportunities for growth [8][10]

Core Insights - The WTO's latest assessment reveals a contradictory and uncertain global trade landscape, with strong growth driven by panic buying ahead of anticipated tariff increases, raising questions about sustainability [1][3] - The global goods trade barometer index rose from 102.8 in March to 103.5 in June, marking the highest level since August 2021, indicating active trade above the normal level [1] Group 1 - The strong growth in trade at the beginning of the year is largely attributed to importers making large-scale purchases in anticipation of potential U.S. tariff hikes, leading to a temporary "stockpiling trend" [3] - The WTO warns that the current trade environment remains fragile, with significant uncertainties that could lead to a broader trade recession if U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" are fully implemented [3] Group 2 - Among the indicators that make up the trade barometer index, export orders are the only category showing negative growth, with the "new export orders index" dropping to 97.9, indicating a contraction [3] - The report suggests that the strong growth in trade volumes observed in early 2025 may be a result of importers increasing purchases to avoid future costs, which could lead to a slowdown in trade growth later in the year as sellers reduce inventory [3]

穆迪分析（Moody's Analytics） 拉丁美洲主管Alfredo Coutino指出，这一决定表明央行目前更关注经济 疲软问题，而不是通胀风险。 市场普遍预计，墨西哥央行在2025年下半年仍有可能继续降息，但频率和幅度或将有所调整；若通胀持 续回落且经济数据疲软，年底前基准利率可能降至7.5%或更低；然而，若通胀反弹或外部环境恶化 （如美元走强或美国加息预期回升），则可能抑制进一步宽松的空间。 （文章来源：新华财经） 值得注意的是，与此前几次会议不同，本次会议声明中没有明确指出未来继续降息50个基点的可能性， 这被解读为释放出一种信号：未来的宽松步伐可能放缓。 凯投宏观（Capital Economics）高级新兴市场经济学家Liam Peach认为，此次声明"略微不那么偏宽 松"，并预示未来降息节奏可能会减缓。 Vector Casa de Bolsa经济学家Luis Adrian Muniz表示，此次投票出现分歧、政策指引的变化以及央行小 幅上调通胀预期，都暗示接下来的降息幅度可能缩小至每次25个基点。 新华财经北京6月27日电墨西哥央行决定连续第四次降息50个基点，将基准利率从8.5%下调至8 ...

Core Insights - Vitasoy International Group Limited reported a revenue of HKD 6.274 billion for the fiscal year 2024/2025, reflecting a 1% year-on-year growth, while profit attributable to equity holders surged by 102% to HKD 235 million [1] - The company aims to enhance sales execution and increase product supply in the new fiscal year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue from mainland China reached HKD 3.363 billion, with a 1% year-on-year growth excluding exchange rate effects, and a 2% increase in the second half of the fiscal year [1] - Operating profit in mainland China was HKD 311 million, showing a 42% year-on-year growth excluding exchange rate effects, attributed to improved sales strategies and operational efficiency [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In Australia, Vitasoy's business experienced continuous sales growth and reduced operating losses, with a 5% revenue increase in local currency for the Australia and New Zealand segment [2] - The operating loss for the Australia and New Zealand business decreased by 4% to AUD 15 million [2] Group 3: Product Development and Consumer Trends - Vitasoy has launched its own sugar-free tea products in response to the growing demand in the sugar-free tea market, with positive market performance in Hong Kong [2] - The company plans to continue product development and innovation based on consumer needs and expectations, focusing on enhancing the value of its tea beverage offerings [2] Group 4: Pricing Strategy - The company observed a shift in consumer behavior towards price sensitivity, leading to a price reduction in lemon tea in mainland China, which has now stabilized [2] - Vitasoy will not further reduce prices in the mainland market and anticipates short-term challenges due to slowing growth in plant-based milk and ready-to-drink tea categories [2]

美联储纽约联储主席威廉姆斯近日的讲话，揭示了美国经济当前所面临的微妙转向：一方面是持续的价格压力，另一方面却是增长动能 的显著削弱。在他看来，贸易政策所引发的结构性冲击已开始对经济形成双重压制——既推高了成本，也削弱了劳动力供给和消费支 出。尤其是在特朗普政府维持高关税政策背景下，市场对"滞胀"风险的担忧已不再只是学术层面的猜测。 威廉姆斯预测，今年美国GDP增长将放缓至1%左右，失业率也将从当前的4.2%上升至4.5%。这对一个刚从疫情冲击中走出的经济体而言 无疑是一种警告信号。过去两年，美国经济的复苏更多得益于消费支出的强劲反弹和就业市场的快速修复，而如今这些支撑正在逐步减 弱。他特别提到关税政策对企业成本结构的改变、对移民供给的抑制以及对投资前景不确定性的增加，这些因素都在综合作用于当前的 增长路径。 由于关税带来的成本推动效应，威廉姆斯预计通胀率将在今年上升至3%，远高于美联储2%的政策目标。尽管他表示通胀将在未来两年逐 步回落，但这一判断本身也建立在诸多前提假设之上，例如能源价格稳定、全球供应链修复以及消费预期受控。一旦任何一个变量出现 偏离，通胀回落路径可能变得更长更曲折。 DLSM外汇认为在高利 ...

周三（6月25日）亚市盘中，COMEX黄金价格小幅上涨，截至目前报3344.50美元/盎司，涨幅0.18%， 今日开盘于3338.10美元/盎司，最高上探3349.50美元/盎司，最低触及3334.60美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 美联储威廉姆斯预计，今年美国经济增长将放缓，通胀率将上升，这在很大程度上是由于贸易关税的影 响。威廉姆斯称，"我预计不确定性和关税将抑制支出，减少移民，从而减缓劳动力增长，"因此预计今 年的经济增长将大幅放缓至1%左右，失业率将从目前的4.2%上升至年底的4.5%。他还预计，随着特朗 普关税政策推动物价上涨，通胀率将升至3%，然后用两年时间逐步放缓至2%的目标。 短线来看，COMEX黄金价格上涨，目前交投于3344.50美元/盎司，涨幅0.18%，最高上探3349.50美元/ 盎司，最低触及3334.60美元/盎司。今日上方阻力位为3420-3430，下方支撑位为3290-3300. 威廉姆斯没有对利率政策发表任何前瞻性评论。他在谈到FOMC会议时说："保持这种适度限制性的货 币政策立场对于实现最大就业和价格稳定目标是完全合适的。"美联储目前的利率立 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams predicts a slowdown in U.S. economic growth and an increase in inflation this year, primarily due to the impact of trade tariffs [1] Economic Growth - U.S. economic growth is expected to slow significantly to around 1% this year [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise from the current 4.2% to 4.5% by the end of the year [1] Inflation - Inflation rate is anticipated to rise to 3% as a result of Trump's tariff policies, before gradually easing to the 2% target over the next two years [1] Monetary Policy - Williams emphasizes that maintaining a moderately restrictive monetary policy stance is appropriate for achieving maximum employment and price stability [1] - The current interest rate stance allows the Federal Reserve to closely analyze new data and assess the evolving economic outlook [1]