兴业期货日度策略：2025.06.05 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：焦煤、纯碱及 PTA 基本面驱动偏空。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 特朗普"美丽大法案"或加快全球资金再布局 | 震荡 | | | | | 周三 A 股市场整体反弹，创业板、小微盘风格延续强势，沪深 | | | | | | 两市成交额提升至 1.18（前值 1.16）万亿元。从行业来看，零售 | | | | | | 商贸、轻工制造板块领涨，交通运输、国防军工行业小幅收跌。股 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 指期货方面，lC、IM 延续相对强势，但远月合约贴水回归显著低 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | 位。 | | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | | 高盛表示，特朗普的"美丽大法案"的第 899 条款，赋予美国 | | F3037345 | 从业资格： | | | 对拥有美国投资的外国人征收最高 20% ...

特朗普：参议员兰德·保罗对美丽大法案知之甚少，尤其是即将到来的巨大增长。他喜欢对所有事情 投"不"票，他认为这是好的政治，但事实并非如此。 ...

美国总统特朗普：呼吁在参众两院的所有共和党朋友尽快工作，在7月4日之前把"美丽大法案"送到我的 办公桌上。 ...

特朗普：（谈及马斯克）我们需要得到很多选票。我们将就（美丽大法案）法案进行协商，对于其所有 方面并不满意。 ...

英国前首相特拉斯宣布的减税、去监管和借贷计划惊动了全球投资者，以至于英镑兑美元汇率跌至历史 新低。 特拉斯减税 德商银行：不清楚美债是否会迎来"特拉斯时刻" 金十数据5月23日讯，德商银行利率和信贷研究主管Christoph Rieger在一份报告中说，美国国债收益率 略有回落，受长期国债收益率拉低，但对脆弱的经济复苏仍需保持谨慎。美国国债出现反弹之际，我们 保持谨慎，因为目前还不清楚特朗普的"美丽大法案"是否会让美国国债迎来"特拉斯时刻"。 特拉斯减税 特拉斯减税 ...

Beneficiaries - High-income individuals will see an average tax reduction of approximately $2,800 by 2026, with over two-thirds of the total tax cuts benefiting those earning $217,000 or more annually. Individuals earning $1.1 million or more will receive nearly a quarter of the total tax cuts [2] - Families with children will have their child tax credit increased by $500 to $2,500 until 2028, but an estimated 4.5 million children may not qualify due to new requirements. Children under 8 will receive $1,000 to help parents open "growth and investment accounts" known as "MAGA" savings accounts [2] - Car buyers will be allowed to temporarily deduct up to $10,000 in auto loan interest when purchasing American-made vehicles [2] - Overtime workers will not be taxed on their overtime pay if the bill passes, aligning it with regular wages that are subject to federal and state income taxes, Social Security, and Medicare withholdings [2] - Service industry workers will benefit as tips will not be taxed under the new legislation, with unreported tip income potentially amounting to $23 billion according to a 2018 report by the Treasury Department's Office of Tax Administration [2] Victims - Individuals earning less than $50,000 will face losses of about $700, with those earning between $17,000 and $51,000 losing more than $1,000 due to cuts in assistance programs such as Medicaid and student loans [3] - Beneficiaries of nutrition and medical assistance programs may see up to 7.6 million Americans lose health insurance over the next decade due to adjustments in Medicaid, with spending reduced by approximately $698 billion [3] - Individuals with student loan debt will be affected as the Biden administration's student loan relief measures will be repealed, limiting repayment plans to only two options and imposing significant caps on loans for parents and undergraduates [3] - The federal government is projected to see an increase in the deficit by $3.8 trillion from 2026 to 2034 due to the provisions of the bill [4] - Undocumented immigrants will face new fees for asylum applications and work permits, along with restrictions on state-funded medical assistance for undocumented children [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article revolves around the internal conflicts within the Republican Party regarding the proposed "Big, Beautiful Bill" and its implications for tax policies and economic impact [1][3][4] - The proposed bill aims to extend key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) while introducing new tax policies, which could significantly affect federal tax revenue and national debt [3][5] - The bill includes controversial measures such as increasing the SALT deduction cap, which primarily benefits high-tax states, leading to further divisions among Republican lawmakers [4][6] Group 2 - The bill is projected to increase national debt significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase of $3.4 trillion from 2025 to 2034 and a potential debt-to-GDP ratio of 200% by 2055 [5][6] - The average tariff rate on imported goods has risen to 15%, significantly impacting consumer prices and economic sentiment, with a majority of Americans opposing the current tariff policies [6][7] - Uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is seen as a major barrier to economic activity and investment, with businesses planning to reduce capital expenditures due to concerns over rising costs [6][7]

美国总统特朗普：共和党必须团结一致，支持"美丽大法案"！没有这项立法，国家将遭受巨大损失。 ...

Group 1 - The recent sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market is different from last month's situation, where the 10-year Treasury yield unexpectedly surged above 4.5% during a time of heightened trade war fears [2] - Current market conditions show a weakening expectation for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs predicting that the Fed may not cut rates until December, which contributes to rising Treasury yields [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.53%, and the long-term bond ETF TLT hit its lowest point since November 2023, indicating a significant decline in bond prices [2] Group 2 - The "Beautiful America Act" is projected to create a $3.7 trillion deficit over the next decade, raising annual deficits to over 7% of GDP, which could negatively impact Treasury bonds [3] - Domestic institutions have differing views on U.S. Treasuries; while some see risks due to potential debt expansion from tax cuts, others believe the U.S. has sufficient safety mechanisms to mitigate short-term default risks [3][4] - Historical analysis shows that the U.S. has never formally defaulted on its sovereign debt, and current conditions suggest that the market may be overestimating debt risks [3][4]

美国总统特朗普美东时间周一（下文提及时间均为美东时间）呼吁国会共和党人支持他所称赞的"美丽 大法案"，这是一项全面法案，将减税、移民改革以及一系列国内优先事项合并为一项单一的协调措 施。 特朗普在其"真相社交"平台上写道："本周，共和党人将在税收、能源和农业委员会就'美丽大法案'的主 要内容举行会议。"他敦促国会议员支持众议院筹款委员会主席杰森・史密斯（Jason Smith）、能源和 商业委员会主席布雷特・格思里（Brett Guthrie）以及农业委员会主席格伦・"GT"・汤普森（Glenn "GT" Thompson）。"我们必须获胜！现在，随着大幅削减药品价格，再加上大量的关税收入，我们 的'美丽大法案'变得更庞大、更出色了。美国的黄金时代即将到来。" 特朗普在计划访问沙特、卡塔尔和阿联酋之前发表了上述评论，与此同时，他的政府公布了一项行政行 动，要求制药公司向美国市场提供"最惠国价格"，将药品价格降低多达90%。他还抨击民主党人，指责 他们在他举行新闻发布会之前对该法案提出修正案，试图"摧毁我们的国家"。 特朗普补充道："当我从中东回来时——在那里将为美国带来重大成果——我们将共同处理所有未决问 题 ...