2025 年 07 月 07 日 需求受益于政策加速释放，把握强 α公司的业绩高增 看好 —— 汽车行业 2025 年二季报前瞻 本期投资提示： 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵翼 (8621)23297818× shaoyi@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 汽车 ⚫ 国内外汽车总量情况，根据中汽协会数据，2025 年 4-5 月汽车产销完成 526.8/527.6 万辆，同比分别+10.3％/+10.5％，均呈两位数稳步增长。①乘用车，2025 年 4-5 月 产销分别完成 457/457.5 万辆，同比分别+11.5%/+12.2%。②商用车，2025 年 4-5 月产销分别完成 69.8/70.2 万辆，同比分别+2.8%/+0.6%。③海外，2025 年 4-5 月 汽车出口 10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy signals the country's high - level attention to the "involution" phenomenon, especially in some over - capacity industries. The capital market has responded positively, but commodities and cyclical stocks are likely to have a "phased, limited - amplitude" rebound rather than a continuous bull market like in 2016 [6][7] - The current market is in a volatile range. Investment hotspots are concentrated in technology, military, and state - owned enterprises and public utilities sectors [7] Summary by Directory Market Observation - **Impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the market**: The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission's "anti - involution" policy has led to significant rises in relevant sectors. The policy aims to optimize the industrial structure and improve the market environment. However, due to weak demand and limited capacity adjustment space, commodities and cyclical stocks will have a limited - amplitude rebound [6][7] - **Investment suggestions**: - **Technology sector**: In July, technology may be the elastic main line. Reduced Trump policy uncertainty, the "big and beautiful" fiscal bill, and the domestic "15th Five - Year Plan" all support the technology sector [7] - **Military sector**: Driven by NATO's defense budget increase and the expectation of a high - profile military parade in China, military stocks are expected to perform well [7] - **State - owned enterprises and public utilities sectors**: Given the weakening real - estate momentum and other factors, these sectors have good allocation value in the third quarter [7] Market Review - **Market performance**: Most major market indices rose last week, with the ChiNext 50 having the largest increase of 1.93%. Among major industries, the healthcare and financial indices performed well, while the information technology and real - estate indices were weak [10][11][19] - **Trading volume**: The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 14414.07 billion yuan, down from the previous value, but still at a relatively high historical level [24] - **Valuation tracking**: As of July 4, 2025, the PE_TTM of the Wind All - A Index was 19.97, up 0.25 from last week, and in the 77.30% historical quantile (in the past 5 years). 25 out of 30 Shenwan primary industries saw valuation repairs [30] Economic Calendar - This week, important domestic economic data include China's foreign exchange reserves, CPI, and PPI. Overseas, there are euro - zone retail sales data, the US M2 money supply, and important events such as the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow economic growth forecast and the Fed's FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes [32]

国内市场综述 冲高回落 走势分化 周五（7 月 4 日）大盘冲高回落，走势分化。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3472.32 点，上涨 0.32%；深成指 收于 10508.76 点，下跌 0.25%；科创 50 下跌 0.01%； 创业板指下跌 0.36%，万得全 A 成交额共 14545 亿元， 较前一日有所上升。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 13 个行业上涨，其 中银行、综合金融及传媒涨幅居前，而有色金属、基 础化工及轻工制造则跌幅较大。概念方面，稳定币、 跨境支付及央企银行等指数表现活跃。 1.稳增长力度不及预期； 2.地缘冲突升级。 分析师：彭竑/钟哲元 登记编码：S1490520090001/ S1490523030001 邮箱：penghong@crsec.com.cn/ zhongzheyuan@crsec.com.cn | 市场研究部证券研究报告 | | | 2025 年 | 7 月 7 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国内市场 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅% | | 国内市场综述 | 上证综指 | 3472.32 | 11.17 | ...

【文/财圈社&道哥说车 张浅 王禁】 日前，中国航空工业集团有限公司官网信息领导团队一栏中显示，程福波已任中国航空工业集团有限公 司董事长、党组书记。这一调动同时在中国兵器工业集团留下关键职位空缺，那么谁将会接棒这一职位 呢？ | | 领导团队 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 关于我们 | | | | 集团概况 | | | | ·集团简介 | | | | ·发展战略 | | | | >·领导团队 | | | | ·组织架构 | | | | ·发展历程 | | | | 业务实力 | | | | 合作共赢 | | | | 党群工作 | | 程福波 | | 党风廉政建设 | | 量事长 党组书记 | | 上市公司 | | | 有接近中国兵器工业集团有限公司的人士向《财圈社&道哥说车》编辑透露，中国兵器装备集团公司与 中国兵器工业集团有限公司已经完成重组，原兵装集团董事、总经理、党委副书记周治平已就任"新兵 工集团"党组书记、董事长一职，并称周治平已低调进驻兵工集团总部开展工作。不过，截止编辑发稿 前，中国兵器工业集团有限公司官网集团领导一栏尚未更新。 三军会师后的新征途 2024年3月转战东风集 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the automotive industry, particularly focusing on the mid-to-high-end market and strong alpha companies [3][4]. Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is transitioning between the third and fourth consumption eras, with a notable expansion in mid-to-large SUVs and personalized products, indicating untapped consumer potential [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative supply to stimulate market demand, highlighting products like Yu7, Zun Jie S800, and upcoming models from Li Auto as key drivers [4]. - The report suggests continued attention to strong alpha manufacturers such as Li Auto, JAC, Xiaomi, and Seres, as well as their corresponding supply chain companies [4]. Industry Update - Retail sales of passenger cars reached 570,000 units in the 26th week of 2025, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.38%. Traditional energy vehicles sold approximately 274,000 units, down 7.43%, while new energy vehicles sold 296,000 units, up 4.96%, achieving a penetration rate of 51.93% [4]. - The automotive industry experienced a total transaction value of 425.645 billion yuan this week, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.01% [4]. - The automotive industry index rose by 0.10% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.54%, indicating that the automotive sector's performance was below the broader market [11]. Market Conditions - The report notes that 123 automotive stocks rose while 159 fell this week, with the largest gainers being TaoTao Automotive, Hunan Tianyan, and Zhengyu Industrial, which saw increases of 29.8%, 21.0%, and 18.3%, respectively [15]. - Key events include the launch of the Xiaopeng G7, which exceeded pricing expectations and features advanced autonomous driving capabilities, and the opening of BYD's factory in Brazil, enhancing its presence in the Latin American market [5][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic strong alpha manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, and Xiaopeng, as well as companies involved in the trend of smart technology, including Jianghuai Automobile and Seres [4]. - It also suggests monitoring state-owned enterprise reforms, particularly with SAIC Motor, and identifying component manufacturers with strong growth potential, such as Fuyao Glass and New Spring [4]. Key Events - Xiaopeng G7 was launched with a starting price of 195,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities and a significant increase in autonomous driving performance [5][41]. - BYD's new factory in Brazil aims for an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles, with plans to expand to 300,000 units, marking a significant step in its global strategy [8][9].

第二个方向是消费，不过得是新消费。现在年轻人的消费习惯变了，从买白酒转向了"情绪消费"，像潮玩、智能家居、体验式文旅这些，都成了新风口。恒 生指数消费板块的前十大成分股里，全是这些新赛道的龙头，跟着趋势走准没错。 第三个方向是高股息的央企。港股里的三桶油、三大通信运营商，分红稳定，股息率还高，就像给你的账户上了个保险。特别是在市场波动大的时候，这些 公司就像定海神针，稳稳地给你托底。 说完了方向，咱们再聊聊怎么参与。直接买股票？风险太大！我建议大家用"懒人工具箱"——ETF和基金。比如景顺长城的港股科技ETF，把半导体、互联 网、汽车等多个科技细分领域都一网打尽，既能分散风险，又能吃到科技发展的红利。消费类的ETF就更直接了，直接跟踪消费板块指数，连选股都省了。 还有央企红利ETF，专门挑那些分红高的央企，省心又省力。 各位朋友好，我是帮主郑重，在财经圈摸爬滚打了20年，最近港股市场那叫一个热闹，不少朋友都问我，现在冲进去还来得及吗？普通人又该怎么参与呢？ 今天咱们就好好唠唠。 首先啊，港股为啥突然火起来了？这背后可是有不少门道。你看，政策暖风一阵接一阵，好多大公司都跑去香港二次上市，像宁德时代、比亚迪这些巨 ...

·近日，我国多地出现持续高温，带动用电负荷快速增长。7月4日，全国用电负荷创出历史新高，达到 14.65亿千瓦，比6月底上升约2亿千瓦，比去年同期增长接近1.5亿千瓦。其中，华东电网负荷达4.22亿 千瓦，空调负荷占比约37%。入夏以来，江苏、山东、河南、安徽、湖北等省级电网负荷9次创新高。 （新华财经） ·国务院国资委印发关于新时代中央企业高质量推进品牌建设的意见，到2030年，中央企业品牌引领意 识明显增强，品牌强企战略普遍实施，品牌价值大幅提升，不断涌现管理科学、贡献突出、要素鲜明、 价值彰显的知名品牌。到2035年，中央企业品牌影响力、竞争力、引领力显著提升，形成一批管理先 进、贡献卓越、价值引领、享誉全球的卓著品牌。（新华财经） ·住房城乡建设部调研组近日赴广东、浙江两省调研。调研组表示，促进房地产市场平稳、健康、高质 量发展具有重要意义。各地要切实扛起责任，充分用好房地产调控政策自主权，因城施策、精准施策， 提升政策实施的系统性有效性，持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。（新华社） ·美方恢复飞机发动机等产品对华出口商务部回应称双方团队正在加紧落实伦敦框架有关成果 ·创历史新高 7月4日全国最大电力负荷超 ...

Group 1 - The core index, the China Securities National New State-Owned Enterprise Technology Leading Index, experienced a slight decline of 0.22%, closing at 1262.6 points with a trading volume of 27.628 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 5.31%, while it has seen a 4.44% rise over the last three months, and a negligible decline of 0.01% year-to-date [1] - The index is customized by Guoxin Investment Co., Ltd., comprising 50 listed companies in sectors such as aerospace, defense, computer, electronics, semiconductors, and communication equipment [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Hikvision (9.46%), AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (6.92%), AVIC Optoelectronics (6.58%), Changjiang Electronics (6.49%), and others [1] - The index's holdings are primarily listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (58.27%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (41.73%) [1] - The industry composition of the index shows that information technology accounts for 49.75%, industrials for 39.66%, and communication services for 10.59% [2] Group 3 - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - In special circumstances, the index may undergo temporary adjustments, such as when a sample company is delisted or undergoes mergers or acquisitions [2] - Public funds tracking the index include various funds from E Fund, Yinhua, and Southern Asset Management [2]

Group 1 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) issued guidelines for enhancing brand development among central enterprises in the new era [1] - The guidelines emphasize the cultivation of high-quality brand assets through differentiated nurturing and refined management strategies based on the characteristics of different sub-brands and their development stages [1] - A mechanism for the addition and exit of brand assets will be established, allowing for the gradual elimination of underperforming brands through cancellation, transfer, or sale [1] Group 2 - The guidelines highlight the importance of inheriting and maintaining quality brand assets during mergers and acquisitions to create overall advantages [1]

2025全球数字经济大会"国央企数智化转型链通产业新质生产力"论坛现场。 东城区区长陈献森强调，作为首都功能核心区，东城依托央企总部集聚优势，正全力打造央地协同数字化转型"北京样板"，推动政策、技术、资本深度融 合，为新质生产力培育厚植沃土。知识产权出版社董事长刘超指出："知识产权是数智化转型的'基石'与'引擎'。"出版社将通过专利导航、数据资产化服 务，为国央企筑牢创新"护城河"，畅通成果转化"立交桥"。北京市经信局副局长顾瑾栩葛表示："国央企的数智化转型，是北京打造全球数字经济标杆城市 的关键支撑。需勇当'排头兵'，以技术融合突破体制机制壁垒，激活产业升级'强引擎'。" 论坛上，东城区副区长邓慧敏推介了东城区数字经济高质量发展布局及政策，聚焦算力、大模型与产业融合，释放政策引力。本次论坛主旨演讲环节汇聚7 位行业领袖，呈现硬核实践。随后进行的圆桌对话环节，7位来自高校、企业、服务机构和投资机构的嘉宾聚焦"构建产业生态，合作共赢新范式"展开深入 讨论。 中国经济网北京7月4日讯(记者魏敏)7月3日，2025全球数字经济大会专题论坛"国央企数智化转型链通产业新质生产力"召开。会上，北京市东城区新智算力 与大模 ...