2022年至今，碳酸锂现货价格从60万元/吨的高点滑落至约6万元/吨，跌幅超过90%，这一系列数字反映了当前产业链在供需结构调整过程中面临的阶段性挑 战。从上游矿山开采到下游电池制造，整个产业链条卷入一场旷日持久的"内卷"中——价格战硝烟弥漫，质量竞赛日趋激烈，各环节普遍步入微利甚至亏损 的生存模式。 供需阶段性失衡 产业链面临"生存困境" 据了解，碳酸锂价格断崖式下跌的根本驱动力在于供需失衡。"2022年至今，碳酸锂供给端增速平均维持在31%左右，需求端增速平均维持在27%左右，供 需差导致库存大面积累积，市场主要矛盾是供给端新增产量不断释放，需求端暂无明显放量。"中信期货研究部有色金属研究员白帅表示。 事实上，"内卷式"竞争在各行各业均不鲜见。此前中国有色金属工业协会会长葛红林表示，锂行业"内卷"源于企业战略短视、跟风投资和缺乏创新，龙头企 业未能有效引导行业自律，反而加剧低价竞争，未来需通过技术创新（如固态电池）和差异化布局（如海外市场拓展）打破僵局。 北京首创期货研究院院长张小凯表示，碳酸锂产业链的"内卷"本质是供需失衡引发的恶性竞争。 具体来看，张小凯介绍说，首先是价格战与利润挤压：上游锂矿企业因锂 ...

中国是全球最大的石化产品生产和消费国，市场规模超过全球总量的40%。日前，中证商品指数公司发 布了国内首个板块类商品期货系列指数——中证能源化工产业期货系列指数，以更加客观反映中国能源 化工行业及其细分板块商品价格整体走势和产业周期变化。 新指数有哪些特点？对上下游企业有何影响？记者进行了采访。 宽窄结合，更好反映产业特点 在金融市场，指数是重要的价格参考。 中证能源化工产业期货系列指数(以下简称"系列指数")共3套具体指数，包括中证能源化工产业期货价 格/期货指数、中证能化产成品期货价格/期货指数和中证有机化工品期货价格/期货指数。 3套指数均以国内上市期货品种为样本基础，从期货和现货两端筛选行业内重要品种。比如，宽基的能 源化工产业指数，覆盖整个能源化工产业链条，突出行业整体价格趋势，与原油价格相关性较高；相对 窄基的有机化工品指数，聚焦刻画有机化工品的整体价格趋势。 目前，中国合成树脂、合成橡胶等20余种大宗产品的产能与产量均占据全球领先地位。中证商品指数公 司指数业务二部负责人吴文豪告诉本报记者，完整的实体产业链条、强大的加工能力、成熟的期货市场 为能源化工产业期货指数的编制奠定了坚实的产业和市场基础 ...

伊朗将7月销往亚洲的伊朗轻质原油价格定为阿曼/迪拜均价升水1.55美元/每桶。 ...

南都讯记者伍曼娜日前，第23届中国金融国际年会(China International Conference in Finance,CICF)在深 圳前海成功举办。 香港中文大学(深圳)经管学院执行院长、深圳数据经济研究院副院长张博辉教授在致辞中表示，港中大 (深圳)致力于创建一所立足中国、面向世界的一流研究型大学，鼓励学者挑战传统理论，倡导学术交流 和国际合作。深圳作为中国改革开放的重要枢纽，为香港中文大学(深圳)提供了独特的创新和产业发展 优势。深圳数据经济研究院将充分依托深圳前海在创新和产业化发展上的优势，促进产学研创新融合， 推动技术创新和制度转型。 本届年会由上海交通大学上海高级金融学院(高金/SAIF)、长江商学院、香港中文大学(深圳)经管学院/ 深圳数据经济研究院和南方科技大学商学院/南方科技金融省级重点实验室联合主办。香港中文大学(深 圳)经管学院学术院长、深圳数据经济研究院学术院长熊伟教授出席会议与会见活动。 CICF始于2002年，由麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院(MIT Sloan School of Management)和清华大学经管学院 创办。经过多年耕耘，CICF在全球金融学术界的影响 ...

Group 1 - The launch of pure benzene futures and options on July 8 at Dalian Commodity Exchange marks a significant development for the industry, providing essential tools for price risk management and enhancing the international pricing influence of China's pure benzene [1][2][3] - On the first trading day, four contracts (BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, BZ2606) were listed, with a total trading volume of 26,900 lots and a transaction value of 4.788 billion yuan, indicating strong market participation [1] - The participation of 230 legal entities, with a holding ratio of 62.7%, highlights the interest from major industry players, including China National Petroleum International and Xuyang Group [1] Group 2 - China is the largest producer, consumer, and importer of pure benzene, with a projected production of 25.13 million tons and a consumption of 29.26 million tons in 2024, reflecting a significant market scale of 208.6 billion yuan [2] - The introduction of pure benzene futures and options is seen as a critical transition from "extensive competition" to "refined management" within the industry, enhancing profit locking and risk resistance for enterprises [2] - The establishment of a Chinese pricing system for pure benzene is anticipated to improve international market influence and pricing transparency, moving away from reliance on overseas pricing benchmarks [2][3]

【导读】券商密集发布研报聚焦 " 反内卷 " 主线 展望后市，华安证券认为，本轮 " 反内卷 " 行情是在相关周期品板块前期滞涨背景下（其余 方向均有过轮动），同时恰逢中央财经委提及治理低价无序竞争催化下的主题行情。这是个 短期的主题机会，空间和持续时间都将有限，对于需要景气度快速改善而提供行情实际支撑 的相关板块而言，难有基本面支撑。 见习记者 舍梨 近期， " 反内卷 " 政策密集出台，各行业纷纷发声响应，一度成为股票与商品市场的交易热 点。记者关注到，券商 " 反内卷 " 相关研报也迅速出炉并刷屏！ 据不完全统计， 7 月 1 日至今，至少 23 家券商发布 36 篇研报对反内卷进行系统研究，其 中不乏专题及深度研究。各大券商普遍关注三个方向：如何看待本轮 " 反内卷 " ？ " 反内卷 " 对资本市场影响几何？哪些行业有望受益？ 如何看待本轮 " 反内卷 " ？ 今年 7 月 1 日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚 焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序 退出。同日，《求是》发文《深刻认识和综合整治 " 内卷式 " 竞争》。 ...

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者田亚雄 刘昊 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是 一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临 渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 田亚雄 刘昊 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 商品赚钱的机会，大体上出现在别人深度犯错的时候，即在情绪的极端位置进行反转交易。以 2025年4月9日开盘为例，当天的铜和白银等商品砸出了相对意义上的低点。除此以外，需要进一 步理解我们对于利多是否被定价的认识。通常，当利空出现但价格不跌时，我们会视之为市场认 为利空出尽，进而形成利多的判断，这是第一维度的认知。但总归到后期，如果上行驱动不足， 市场会重新回到此前空头逻辑的定价上。即使此前的价格表现不敏感，后续也可能形成更显著的 空头机会。 主线一：反内卷题材的商品筛选框架。反内卷逻辑需综合四项指标： A.行业亏损周期 B.产能利用率降幅 C.头部玩家集中度 D.企业所有制特征 主线第一条是反内卷题材对于商品定 ...

一、专家观点为何总是"浆糊" 记得刚入市那会儿，我也特别迷信专家观点。每天追着各种分析报告看，结果发现一个有趣的现象：这些专家就像"浆糊"一样，把简单的事情说得云里雾 里。看对了就大吹特擂，恨不得把功劳都揽在自己身上；看错了就开始用各种专业术语搪塞，让你觉得是自己理解能力不够。 这种"浆糊式"分析最大的特点就是模棱两可。涨了可以说"符合预期"，跌了也能解释为"技术性调整"。反正怎么说都对，就是不给个准话。久而久之我才明 白，这哪是什么专业分析，分明是在玩文字游戏。 二、定价权才是市场本质 后来我渐渐想通了，股市的本质就是定价权的争夺。而定价权从来都掌握在机构手里，散户永远是被动接受的一方。那些所谓的专家分析，很多时候不过是 给机构行为找理由罢了。 记得2024年二季度，外资一边公开宣称"从不做题材股"，一边却在悄悄布局重组概念股。要不是后来报表披露，谁能想到这些"价值投资者"也会玩这种把 戏？这件事给我上了生动的一课：不要听专家说什么，关键要看他们怎么做。 | 序号 | | ■ 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 现价(元) | 涨跌幅(%) | 区间涨跌幅:前复权(%) ? | 机构持股数量明细(股) 2 | 机构 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of "Farmer Spring Pure Transparent Edible Ice" by Sam's Club has sparked significant consumer debate regarding its pricing, with a 2 kg bag priced at 22.8 yuan, leading to discussions about value and cost-effectiveness in the ice market [1][3][15]. Group 1: Product Pricing and Consumer Reactions - The 2 kg ice bag priced at 22.8 yuan translates to approximately 5.7 yuan per 500 ml bottle of water, raising questions about its pricing strategy [3][4]. - Some consumers argue that the pricing is justified due to the unique production process, while others feel it is overpriced and prefer to make ice at home [4][11]. - The product's unique selling proposition includes a slower freezing process that reduces melting speed by 20%, making it suitable for long-term cooling in summer [7][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The introduction of this ice product has led to a surge in demand, with reports of it selling out quickly, indicating a strong market interest [15]. - Other companies, including dairy brands like Yili and Mengniu, as well as retailers like Hema and Lawson, have also entered the ice market, intensifying competition [15]. - The price of similar ice products has seen significant reductions over the years, with Hema's ice cup price dropping from 4.9 yuan to 2.5 yuan within three years, suggesting a trend of decreasing profit margins in the ice market [16]. Group 3: Industry Overview - Sam's Club, a subsidiary of Walmart, operates over 800 stores globally, positioning itself as a major player in the membership-based retail sector [13]. - The ice market is becoming increasingly competitive, with multiple players vying for market share, which may impact pricing strategies and profitability in the long run [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong (A+H) has intensified, particularly since 2024, with significant companies like Midea Group, SF Express, and CATL leading this wave, injecting vitality and opportunities into the Hong Kong market while reflecting a profound shift in the pricing power of core Chinese assets towards Hong Kong [1][3][33] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The total fundraising amounts and market capitalizations of key companies listed in Hong Kong show varying performance, with Midea Group raising 31.04 billion HKD and a market cap of 580.4 billion HKD, while CATL raised 35.66 billion HKD with a market cap of 1.41 trillion HKD, indicating a strong market response [2] - The Hang Seng-Hushen Connect AH Share Premium Index has declined for two consecutive years, with a drop of over 9% this year, suggesting that H-shares are outperforming A-shares [4] - In 2024, net inflows from southbound trading exceeded 800 billion HKD, marking a historical high, with southbound trading volume surpassing 50% of the total trading volume of the Hang Seng Index for the first time [7] Group 2: Valuation and Pricing Power - The systematic shift of pricing power towards the Hong Kong market indicates that it has become a key battleground for the valuation of core assets [3][8] - The core assets are concentrated in three main areas: AI technology, new consumption revolution, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with significant improvements in asset quality [8] - The valuation of leading companies like SF Express is expected to rise, benefiting from the "southward pricing" trend, which is anticipated to enhance the overall valuation framework of the A-share market [22][30] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - SF Express has demonstrated strong market competitiveness and growth potential, with a projected net profit of 10.17 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.51% [8][26] - The company's investment in R&D is set to reach 3.09 billion CNY in 2024, leveraging advanced technologies to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience [26] - SF Express's business model is diversified across multiple logistics sectors, which strengthens its market adaptability and revenue stability [26][30] Group 4: Future Outlook - The increasing number of leading companies listing in Hong Kong is expected to marginally enhance the pricing power of core assets, which will also influence the A-share market [22] - The trend of institutional investors gaining a larger share in both Hong Kong and A-share markets suggests a shift towards core assets, with a potential for A-shares to align more closely with global valuation standards [21][22] - The ongoing capital flow and the "southward pricing" trend are likely to create a favorable environment for the valuation of technology growth stocks and blue-chip stocks in the A-share market [22][30]